Today’s BBC2 Daily Politics is touting a highly misleading poll by ComRes feigning to know which of the other two main parties – Labour or the Tories – Lib Dem members would wish to shack up with in the event of a hung Parliament where the party holds the balance of power. The Guardian reports it here:
Liberal Democrat activists would overwhelmingly prefer their party to enter a coalition government with Labour rather than the Tories, according to a poll published today. Fewer than one in five said that they would want to see Nick Clegg team up with the Conservatives in the event of a hung Parliament after the next general election. The Lib Dem leader has consistently refused to discuss who he is likely to support if all parties fail to secure an outright majority.
Why do I call the poll misleading? Well, here’s the precise wording ComRes used: In the event of a hung parliament at the next election, and if the Liberal Democrats held the balance of power, which party would you prefer the Liberal Democrats to support in government? And here are the options that were presented: Conservative / Labour / Don’t know / Not stated.
You see the flaw in ComRes’s findings? That’s right, no option for either ‘Neither’, nor for ‘Either, equally’. The omission of those options may account for the very high level of those saying ‘Don’t know’ – almost 50%.
Fortunately, Lib Dem Voice and the ippr – in preparation for Tuesday’s lunchtime fringe event on ‘The end of politics as we know it‘ – asked our panel of 1,000+ Lib Dem party members a question about ‘hung Parliaments’ which offered these options. Some 250 party members completed the survey, and the results differ quite significantly from the false, forced choice question asked by ComRes for BBC2′s Daily Politics.
LDV asked: If the result of the next general election is that the Lib Dems hold the balance of power in a ‘hung parliament’, what do you think should be the party’s response if Labour/Conservatives offer some form of deal which includes the promise of a referendum on electoral reform?
And here’s what our LDV party members’ panel said:
25% – Steer well clear of any form of negotiations or coalition with Labour or Conservatives
5% – Be ready to negotiate only with Labour on that basis
6% – Be ready to negotiate only with the Conservatives on that basis
61% – Be equally ready to negotiate with either Labour or the Conservatives on that basis
3% – Don’t know / No opinion
These findings are, I think, much more revealing of what Lib Dem members actually think the party should consider in the (unlikely) event of a hung Parliament:
Of course this answer doesn’t suit the media’s simplistic, pre-determined agenda, so don’t expect the findings to be reported. But perhaps BBC2′s Daily Politics will have the courage to prove our cynicism wrong …
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Given that the Tories and Labour voted together to go to war, both want to cut spending by ten per cent, have no differences on Welfare Reform and have voted together in the same lobbies, and there isnt a cigarette paper between them on other issues, why dont they get together? It would save a lot of dosh.
So the lib dems would do a deal with anyone as long as the was a promise to rig the voteing system.
That’s not a flaw – it’s a feature. It’s a deliberate forced choice.
When forced to choose (as the parliamentary LDs will be in the event of a hung parliament) LibDem members chose to support Labour over the Tories by two to one.
You’d really better hope that news doesn’t take hold in the southwest of England and other LD-Con marginals.
@LondonStatto
The choice to negotiate with both or neither will also be an option in the scenario you describe.
LondonSlatto – the Lib Dems were “forced to choose” between the SNP and Labour in Scotland in 2007. They chose neither – which is a valid choice.
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[...] Yesterday, we looked at how Lib Dem members would respond in the event of a hung Parliament, assuming electoral reform was on the agenda. Today we’re looking at just how important you think electoral reform is, and which of the other two main parties you think are most sympathetic to the idea of electoral reform. [...]