You Gov
Con 42 up 1
Lab 35 n/c
LD 14 Down 1

Changes are since the last MORI poll, released 2 days ago.

And obviously the difference between 11% (MORI) and 19% (ICM) is beyond the theoretical statistical error. I still think all the reweighting and normalisation that goes on is more likely to account for the disagreements between the pollsters than differences in the phrasing of the questions. Who knows which is closest to the truth?

I think all we can sensibly do is look at each result in relation to previous results from the same pollster, but even that gives mixed messages at the moment.

I note with interest that 19% was the extant ICM rating on the day nick took office. It seems to summarise the evidence of the whole year. No sign of any great collapse but absolutely no progress either.

Chenges are since the last IC poll 2-3 weeks ago.

ComRes 20.5
ICM 21
Populus 21
BPIX 21.5
MORI 22.5
YouGov 23.6

Those figures hardly support the ideas that ICM is the most and MORI the least accurate in evaluating Lib Dem support.

So you really _don’t_ have anything to say apart from “everything’s going to be all right”?

“Mori are habitually the worst pollster for us LibDems because of the screwy weightings they apply to the pure numbers.”

Of course all the pollsters differ, and it doesn’t surprise me that people tend to prefer the ones that are most favourable to the Lib Dems. But as I pointed out, this equals the worst Lib Dem rating by MORI since 2005. Just as the latest ComRes equals the worst Lib Dem rating ever recorded by that company – with the single exception of 12% last month.

According to other companies the Lib Dems aren’t doing quite as badly as that. But these polling figures are not at all good, and I can’t see any point in pretending otherwise.

There is no need to take their results seriously when they always underestimate the level of our support, so accounting for this underestimation (by at least a couple of points) and adding it to the potential margin for error we can see our poll rating as holding steady.

I really don’t understand why you are so keen to be a merchant of doom.

Can I give you a pinch of salt for Christmas?

For your information – in case you’re interested in information, which I doubt – I generally post the results of any polls I see, unless someone else gets there first, as David Morton did on another thread for the last two.

And, incidentally, of those two the ComRes poll was also pretty awful. That company tends to produce favourable ratings for the party, and 14% would have been their lowest for nearly two years – if it hadn’t been for the 12% rating they produced last month.

Now, do you have any comment on the subject of the thread, apart from the usual “Nick Clegg has a secret plan and everything’s going to be all right” guff?

Higher, certainly, but I’m not convinced we can know which of the pollsters is evaluating Lib Dem support most accurately.

Changes are since the last Ipsos-Mori poll at the end of November.

After a few polls showing (apparently) a slight recovery in the Lib Dem rating, this is another appalling one. It equals the worst rating recorded by Ipsos-Mori (or anyone else) since the last general election, shortly before Ming Campbell was dumped, in October 2007.

Changes are since the last Populus poll about a month ago.

Again on a uniform swing projection this would make Labour the largest party in the Commons. And again this indicates that the Lib Dems have improved by a few points since reaching a nadir a month or two ago.

If the glass is half full then the party seems to have a remarkably stable core vote at about the 16% mark plus what ever boost a GE campaign will give us ( which usually happens rather than always…)

If the glass is have empty then the party has gone absolutely no where and arguably a point backwards over the last year. has nothing happened over the last year that an opposition party could have exploited. If we can’t progress in the current climate then when will we ? It also begs the question as to whether there has been any benefit what so ever from the panicy executions of two federal leaders since the last elections.

My sumary would be “reason to panic? No. reason for soul searching ? Yes. “

Anthony Wells on ukpollingreport.co.uk commented sensibly that “We won’t know for sure until we see some other polls …”

A dramatically different poll by ComRes for the Independent:
CON 37% (-6)
LAB 36% (+4)
LDEM 17% (+5)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/3540298/Tories-lead-over-Labour-cut-to-one-point.html

Just when it appeared the Tories had regained a double-digit lead after the pre-budget report, this would indicate (on a uniform swing assumption) Labour just 3 seats short of an overall majority.

That seems a bit low to me, especially given the other parties’ woes right now.

Why do you think we are not doing better?

Has anyone found our economic narrative?

See

(http://neilstockley.blogspot.com/2008/11/where-is-liberal-democrat-economic.html)