Last night brought news of a Populus poll for The Times showing the Lib Dems ahead of the Tories by 33%-28%, a Lib Dem lead of 5%.
But tonight a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday has shown the Tories ahead of the Lib Dems by 33%-29%, a Tory lead of 4%.
Survation conducted an Eastleigh poll a fortnight ago — then they found the Lib Dems leading the Tories by 36%-33%. Here’s how the figures compare:
Lib Dems 29% (-4%)
Conservatives 33% (n/c)
Ukip 21% (+5%)
Labour 13% (n/c)
Only one conclusion to draw from all this: it’s too tight to call! So let’s keep campaigning…
- Volunteer to help out in person;
- Make some phone calls from wherever you are;
- Donate to help finance the campaign.
Next Friday morning will be too late. There has rarely been a more important by-election for the party.
It’s up to us whether we remember it for the right reasons or not…
* Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, and editor of the 2013 publication, The Coalition and Beyond: Liberal Reforms for the Decade Ahead. He is also a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum and writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.