Author Archives: Arnold Kiel

Unconditionally surrender to the EU or be a failed state

The fact that Brexit will be a total disaster brought about by deceitful propaganda and an illegitimate, undemocratic procedure, is now firmly established. Brexiteers, if you are not yet ready for reality: print and read in 2 years.

The election has produced a bigger remain-majority in Parliament:

“Hard Brexit” is a logically consistent, albeit disastrous, course of action. “Soft Brexit” is a nonsensical placeholder for the other logically consistent and only sensible course of action (until that becomes permissible to think and speak): “Stop Brexit”. Interpreting Labor-votes as endorsing “Hard Brexit” is ridiculous and desperate. “Soft” is the tactically smart “Stop”. A second referendum is a similar placeholder: systemically more consistent but electorally less effective.

Coming events will produce a bigger remain-majority in the general public:

Posted in Op-eds | 74 Comments

Is the Euro a good reason for Euroscepticism and Brexit?

I often read here that the Euro has pushed Southern Europe, and indirectly somewhat also the UK, into misery and that the EU is therefore a doomed project that must be left. I could not disagree more.

Greece did not develop any competitive employment, especially for the qualified, since joining the EU 1981. Its dominant public and partially closed private sectors do not have the economic structures of a developed industrialized country. Strong growth in the last ten years has been based on public and private consumption financed by the EU and an uncontrolled amassment of debt. The disappearance of cheap money and the resulting fall in demand have brought record unemployment perpetuated by structural standstill.

Posted in Op-eds | 29 Comments

Meet the new Brexit actors: facts, realism, truth

 

“This is an historic moment from which there can be no turning back.” If the second part of the PM’s sentence had been true, there would have been no need to state it. Therefore it isn’t. Revocation of Article 50 by a British Government would be the ultimate vote of confidence in the EU. Europe would never pass on that opportunity. Therefore the campaign continues.

In the first phase of the Brexit-campaign until now, Leave’s weapons (unsubstantiated dreams, outright lies, fraudulent slogans, the opinion press), were more effective than Remain’s (appreciation of a status quo, plausible but uncertain projections, the information press).

The EU will conduct the negotiations publicly, and thereby also force the UK Government into the open. All dreams, lies and slogans will be exposed; Remain will rearm with powerful, hitherto unavailable or ineffective weapons: facts, realism and truth.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 13 Comments

How the UK economy’s key sectors link into the EU’s single market

A report with this title was released last week by the Centre for Economics and Business Research for Open Britain.

This report was somewhat shyly presented by cautious Remainers as a case against sectoral EU-negotiations. More importantly, however, it makes a compelling case for continued full membership in the European single market.

It should be mandatory reading for everyone who still believes that:

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 15 Comments

Opportunities? Brexiteers, please specify

The motives and backgrounds of leave-voters are by now sufficiently understood to conclude that many of them cannot afford to and would not have voted for becoming substantially and permanently poorer. Some may, but had it been widely understood that Brexit comes at a high economic price for everybody, the result would have been a different one.

Apparently, most leavers dismissed the economic arguments of remain, and instead of asking for better arguments from leave bought the “scaremongering”-claim (admittedly, leave was much better at creating slogans). And this continues: leave already claims victory on the economy after 6 months in which nothing (apart from a 15% devaluation of the country) has happened. Luckily, consumers so far remain complacent and keep spending.

I know the typical response I can expect from Brexiteers: unsubstantiated claims (“see the opportunities”, “champions of free trade”…), denial (“Q3 was good”), fluffy sovereignty-talk (“Brussels”), and pressure (“how dare you not respecting the will of the people?”). Is that all you have got?

May I challenge you to think a little harder? Specify trading opportunities the UK currently misses because of EU membership, which outweigh the losses from leaving the single market. In other words: How and when will you have replaced the benefits of preferential access to 27 EU member states and the EUs’ 53 third-country agreements with higher yielding UK-deals? How and when will you recover the transitional losses? Will the current generation of young people recover from the damage within their professionally active lifetime? No leave-campaigner has ever presented any such case. Can you?

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , and | 98 Comments

A populist Parliament

 

I am a German citizen and UK resident. I am also a fan, but not a member of the Liberal Democrats.

I appreciate your party’s stance on Brexit, but I urge you to go further:

Stop expressing misguided respect for a misguided referendum result. People want and deserve a better life, and you know Brexit will give them the opposite: Brexit impoverishes, endangers, brutalizes, and kills.

An MP voting with the Government on triggering Article 50 against his or her conscience is worse than Johnson or Farage, because he or she will not only be a populist, but will irreversibly go down in history as a legislating populist. MPs must protect the country and its people from harm, also and especially if self-inflicted.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 62 Comments
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Recent Comments

  • User AvatarDavid Evans 28th Jul - 3:53pm
    Simon, I agree with you when you say "it is quite clear that quite a lot of them already think they were straightforwardly misled by...
  • User AvatarKatharine Pindar 28th Jul - 3:34pm
    @ Steve Trevethan: thank you for pointing me to Steve Keen for an alternative to neo-liberal economic policy, and sorry for taking so long to...
  • User Avatarexpats 28th Jul - 3:32pm
    Martin 28th Jul '17 - 1:39pm..........Just how confused and incoherent do you have to be on Brexit?.... Being seen as a 'one-trick-pony' didn't do LibDems...
  • User AvatarRichard Underhill 28th Jul - 3:26pm
    We should assume that France, and therefore the EU27, will want to maintain Appellation Controlee status on Bresse chickens in the UK after Brexit. Heston...
  • User AvatarJoseph Bourke 28th Jul - 3:24pm
    The number of 16-24 olds that may take-up the offer of guaranteed employment is estimated at around 300,000 based on an assessment of the CIPS...
  • User AvatarMike 28th Jul - 3:22pm
    @David Raw: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u52Oz-54VYw is more appropriate than Baez, surely. @David Pocock: 'Consider the hated capitalism. Now tell me what economic system has produced more liberal...
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