Harry Hayfield Author Archive
Opinion: I wonder why Labour is warming to electoral reform?
Written by Harry Hayfield on 26th March 2008 – 7:45 amSo Labour will be holding a consultation process on the benefits of a secondary vote, compulsory voting and voting at the weekends then? Well, I think I can guess what this exercise will say:
“It’s a wonderful idea, I’m suprised we didn’t think of it before!”
To which I would answer: “Because First Past the Post gave you two landslide majorities!”
Assuming that they continue with the late Roy Jenkins’ recommendation of Alternative Vote, it soon becomes obvious why Labour are now warming to the idea. At the next election (working on the new boundaries) Labour will start off with 349 MPs, the Conservatives will have 210 MPs and we will have 62 MPs. Under a system of Alternative Vote, no candidate is elected unless they achieve 50% of the vote +1, so let’s see how many MPs achieve that in 2005
63 Conservatives; 134 Labour; 16 Liberal Democrats; 1 Plaid Cymru; 1 Scottish National Party
= 215 MPs out of 650 MPs
= 33% of all MPs
Or, to put it another way, Labour has 41% of the MPs needed for an overall majority.
And what about the other 435 MPs who do not have 50% of the vote +1? Well, that’s where the second vote comes in. Like in London, this asks “If your preferred candidate doesn’t manage to make it into the top two, which candidate would you like to support?” And when you put this suggestion through you get some very interesting answers indeed.
Take for instance, Wantage. Under the boundary changes, Wantage in 2005 voted:
Con 22,424 (43%); Lib Dem 14,385 (28%); Lab 12,467 (24%); Green 1,334 (3%); UKIP 796 (2%); Others 646 (1%),
But through the wonders of the alternative vote, Wantage undergoes a startling change:
Lib Dem 26,301 (52%); Con 25,112 (48%).
Yes, that’s right, Wantage goes Lib Dem for the first time in its electoral history. And the reason for this? Labour voters actively vote Liberal Democrat to defeat the Conservative on their second ballot, and when applied across the whole of the UK, the changes are even more stark
Labour 365 (+16 on FPTP); Conservatives 172 (-38 on FPTP); Liberal Democrats 89 (+27 on FPTP); Plaid Cymru 5 (+2 on FPTP); Scottish National Party 7 (+1 on FPTP).
I suppose it would have been ignorant of us to assume that Labour would think of a system that helped us without helping them
* Harry Hayfield is a Lib Dem activist and prospective local election candidate in Ceredigion. The numbers have been generated using the 2005 Media Guide to Parliament and UK-Elect.
Posted in Op-eds | 27 Comments »
Local elections 2008: a preview
Written by Harry Hayfield on 17th March 2008 – 7:45 amNo doubt you were looking at your newspapers yesterday, and feeling not very happy about this poll in The Sunday Times:
YouGov poll reports 16% lead for Conservatives : Con 43% Lab 27% Lib Dems 16%
My reaction to this poll is “Whoopee!”
Now before you think the worst, no, I have not succumbed to the charms of David Cameron, nor will I contest the forthcoming local elections as a Conservative. No, I will be contesting the local elections as a Liberal Democrat because in several councils across the country that poll suggests we could well have another barnstormer of a local election (just as we did in 2004).
It is a well known fact that in local elections, the Liberal Democrats do very well indeed when compared to the national poll ratings, and because of the timings of past local elections it is possible to quantify just how well.
In 1997, the Lib Dems polled 18% in the general, but 25% in the county elections. In 2001, the Lib Dems rose 1% at the general election (19%) and in the county elections polled 25% again and in 2005, polled 23% in the general and a very impressive 28% in the counties. All of which suggests that on average the Lib Dems poll 6% better in local elections than general elections: by a similar degree the Conservatives poll 3% better, and Labour poll 10% worse, in local elections than general elections.
Therefore, if we take the average of the polls so far this month - Con 40%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 17% - and apply those average changes to it, we get a 2008 local election forecast of:
Con 43%, Lab 22%, Lib Dem 23%
thus ensuring that Labour (the governing party) are consigned to their 4th successive set of local elections finishing in third place. And how does this help us Lib Dems you may well ask?
Manchester: Lab 61 councillors, Lib Dems 34 councillors. (If people want to vote anti-Labour, it’s no point voting Conservative, is it?)
Oxford: Lib Dems 19 councillors, Lab 17 councillors, Greens 8 councillors. (Which party is the best place to take overall control in Oxford? - it’s certainly not the Conservatives or Greens.)
Ceredigion: Plaid Cymru 16 councillors, Lib Dems 9 councillors, Lab 1 councillor. (Seeing as Labour and Plaid Cymru are essentially the government in Wales, why vote Plaid when that means you are backing the Welsh Assembly Government?)
So as you can see in loads of councils across the UK, the Liberal Democrats are the main challengers to Labour, and the party best placed to gain control.
So have a good fuel up on Easter Eggs next weekend, so that on Wednesday, 26th March, onwards you can walk into your local returning officer’s office, hand over your nomination forms, and say to the electorate: “I’m a Liberal Democrat candidate, and we are the only party who can win control of this council!”
* Harry Hayfield is a Lib Dem activist from Ceredigion constituency and is a prospective community council candidate for the Henfynwy Community Council.
Posted in Local government, Polls | 18 Comments »
Opinion: A humble appeal to all Lib Dem leadership candidates
Written by Harry Hayfield on 18th October 2007 – 2:39 pmI live in the constituency of Ceredigion located on the western coast of Wales, and in 2005 we were one of the 16 Liberal Democrat gains that helped propel the Liberal Democrats to the best ever performance by the party in over 80 years. And yet the reason it was a gain was that in 1992 the newly founded Liberal Democrats lost the seat to Plaid Cymru.
During the next few months, we will be told by all the candidates standing how they will appeal to Conservative voters, how they will appeal to Labour voters, and how they will appeal to the 39% of people who didn’t vote at the last election.
Which means that for the 12,911 voters who voted for Plaid Cymru in Ceredigion in 2005 - as well as the voters who decided to elect SNP MSPs in Scotland in deference to the existing Liberal Democrat MSPs - will justifibly feel left out and pay no attention to what’s going on.
Mark Williams (the Lib Dem MP for Ceredigion) may only have a majority of 218 under the new boundaries, but is the latest in a long line of Liberal / Liberal Democrat MPs for the constituency.
Prior to him, from February 1974 to 1992 was the late (and sadly missed) Lord Geraint of Pontweryd (known to his constituents as Geraint); before him Roderic Bowen (MP from 1945-66); before him Owen Evans (1932-45). He was also preceded by Rhys Hopkin Morris (1923-32), Ernest Evans (1921-23), Matthew Vaughan Davies (1895-1921), William Bowen Rowlands (1886-95), and the first ever Liberal MP for the single county seat of Ceredigion, David Davies in 1885.
In other words, this seat has elected a Liberal or Liberal Democrat MP for the past 101 of the last 122 years, and could therefore be classed as a bastion of Liberalism.
* Harry Hayfield has been a Liberal Demcrat member since 1992.
Posted in Leadership Election, Op-eds | 9 Comments »
