On the whole, Lib Dems can probably be broadly satisfied with our current performance. The latest poll I’ve seen (from ComRes in the Independent) puts us on 18% - so, despite a significant Tory revival, we have not been squeezed.

One might reasonably argue that we should have done better out of Labour’s current demise, but my suspicion is that things will tighten as the general election comes closer, and Nick Clegg - who impresses me more and more - gets the greater media attention he deserves.

But that’s a pretty passive approach. How could the party be more proactive in improving it’s position in the polls and in the forthcoming elections?

First and foremost we need to identify the problem. With opinion polls, the devil is always in the detail. Those who know me well know that I have a number of bees in my bonnet, the largest of which is that I constantly harp on about Propensity to Vote (PTV). The latest ComRes poll shows a somewhat unlikely 74% of Conservatives saying that they are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote, as opposed to 58% of Labour supporters, and 50% of Liberal Democrat supporters.

Now you don’t have to be a mathematical genius to work this one out, do you? If 60% of our supporters felt ‘absolutely certain’ about voting we would pass our share at the last general election; and if we had the same PTV as the Tories, we would be the second party! Yes, there are ‘Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics’, but any experienced campaigner can feel this on the doorstep.

For me, then, our greatest task over the next two years is motivating our supporters to vote. How?

My suggestion is a NATIONAL Survey. Every year, we ask residents in our local council areas their opinions on local issues. Let’s organise a national survey of supporters, where we go out on the doorstep with a questionnaire from Nick asking, face-to-face, known probable supporters what the key issues are for them. Let’s target to ask AT LEAST 100,000 to make it one of the biggest ever national surveys of a political party’s supporters. This is an exercise that every constituency association could join.

The results of such a survey would give us the policy priorities of our potential supporters, as well as valuable information in the run up to a general election, and allow our parliamentary team to feel confident in putting forward Lib Dem policies. If we want to motivate more of the 50% of our supporters who currently plan to stay at home on polling day to come out, we need to understand their views and opinions; their priorities.

You can put my constituency down for £500, Nick.

* Martin Land is a Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat activist.

I like to think I’m a patient man. When you’ve been a Liberal / Liberal Democrat for 35 years you have to be.

But if there is one thing that makes my blood boil, it’s the constant interference of this Government with the electoral process. After 11 years of Labour interference in our democratic fabric, we have a plethora of postal vote scandals and overlapping legislation which manifestly fails to prevent a pattern of defamatory statements and nasty, negative campaigning. Yes, and different voting systems across the country.

Now, the powers that be, in this case the Department for Communities and Local Government, are putting out a consultation paper entitled ‘Moving the date of English Local Government elections to the date of the European Parliament elections in 2009′. This paper is launching a consultation (Labourspeak for: we’ve already decided, but let’s go through the motions…) and says:

This consultation seeks, in particular, views of councils and other stakeholders on where the balance of advantage lies – holding the local and European elections on the same day or on different days four weeks apart. The results of this consultation will help us reach a decision as to whether or not the 2009 local elections should be moved.”

Some people might think this is logical enough. After all, the elections are only four weeks apart, and some civil servant with a preference for neatness has decided that these two could easily grouped together, especially now there is little risk of Gordon calling an election before 2010.

But I think this should be opposed, root and branch.

The local elections which risk being delayed in 2009 are mostly the County Council elections. The County Council elections for 2005 were held on the same day as the General Election. As they were in 2001 and in 1997. This means that electors in these areas have not had an election to these important local authorities where the issues could be discussed, unclouded by other elections, since 1993!

And now the Government wants to merge the 2009 elections with those to the European Parliament, so instead of debating issues like Education, Social Services, Regional Planning, Local Transport and the Environment we will be swallowed up by the endless inane debate between the Euro-idiots on one side and the Euro-fanatics on the other.

There are also brand new unitaries whose first election risks being about straighter bananas rather than the issues facing their communities for the following four years.

So, if you live in any of these areas, protest now. Make sure your local party, Lib Dem, Labour or Conservative is campaigning against this, Make sure your councillors on these authorities are demanding a real, fair say for residents. Write to your local papers. Anything. But let’s not accept another Government manipulation of local democracy.

Let’s be allowed to campaign, discuss and have our say about the important issues covered by these important authorities - for the first time since 1993. Or are we going to have to wait until 2013, twenty years, before we can have a real debate? A real election?

These are the authorities affected: Read more »

Dear Nick,

Well, not bad. The polls look better and on the doorstep I’ve not had a single person ask me why we got rid of Charles Kennedy.

The Bones Commission was a good idea. It was a less of a good idea to allow those who could be part of the problem (I only say could) set its remit. Equally, I’m not sure that the deadline for submissions was very generous and I don’t think the message got down to the grassroots. But let’s see what comes out of it. But it must be an interim step - to coin a Cableism our organisation must owe more to Trotsky (continuous revolution) than Stalin (continuous bureaucracy).

Meantime, when you want to monitor the state of opinion in the party, I would humbly suggest that Lib Dem Voice (especially the members’ forum) and the range of Lib Dem blogs available to read are probably a better indicator than Lib Dem News. I hasten to add I enjoy LD News immensely - it’s the Tardis of Liberalism.

100 days ago I raised the prospect of what you would say to David Cameron when the inevitable discussion took place about a future coalition. Of course, I don’t know if such a meeting took place, but you have made your position very public and for the time being the issue has been laid to rest. But make no mistake. As we get closer to the General Election and the polls get less volatile and much tighter, the issue will come up again and again.

You’ve made it through the first 100 days; 8 out of 10 so far. You have generated the right mood; you are seen as caring and authoritative without being strident or aggressive. It takes time to build the right public image, but as you have just decided to project your own persona you will do very well.

Turning to the future, you really must make sure your colleagues get out more. We need them on the streets helping us to build local strengths. If you want to win 150 seats over the next 10 years, a lot more work has to go into building up local parties. And next time there is a key vote in the House, just suggest they form a Conga behind you.

Finally, we should do well enough in the local elections in May and this will give you a springboard for what must be a campaigning summer. But the Tories will do well too, so we will have to continue to work our hardest. As for Labour, my suspicion is that they will wish they had banned local elections as a Blood Sport along with Fox Hunting…

Yours sincerely,

Martin Land

* Martin Land is a Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat activist.

Whoever said that people tend to believe whichever opinion poll shows their party in the best light certainly hit the nail on the head. When I was younger, Liberals never believed Gallup polls because they generally showed the Tories in a better light than we wanted to believe (and they were published in a less than liberal Daily).

My personal prejudice is against YouGov polls, mainly because I went to school with its founder and the boy, as the old saying goes, is the father of the man. YouGov are now showing Ken Livingstone as highly likely to lose, which if it’s true, demonstrates that Londoners have a much better sense of humour than Boris.

There have been a flurry of polls that show the Tories to be ahead of Labour by 9%, 13%, even an incredible 16%.

And they all show the Liberal Democrats in a favourable light, with the latest from ICM showing us on 21%.

All well and good, and pretty damn clear. The problem is, I can’t find it. We are out there on the doorstep, talking to people everyday - after all, there are elections coming up. Now, if you want to find Tories, Huntingdon is as good a place as any - in fact given that until 2001 it was the safest Tory seat in the country, it’s better than almost anywhere else. Sure, we are finding lot’s of Tories, but no more than last year. Frankly, a few less.

So am I saying that I don’t believe the pollsters? Well, no. I think they are reporting pretty fairly what they are finding. The problem is I think that a large part of the electorate is up for grabs. Swinging backwards and forwards in response to what or who they heard last.

But, you see, I think that’s good news. People are listening to what we have to say on the doorstep. It’s a good time to talk to people. They no longer trust Labour, that’s evident, but they are mostly wise enough to be suspicious of a Tory party that is supposedly in favour of the environment, the NHS and public services. I think, potentially, the next few years could be very good for the Lib Dems. Sure, a lot of that is going to be down to Nick Clegg, but a lot of it could be down to ordinary members and activists, too.

My advice? Well normally I would follow the ALDC mantra and tell all my canvassers that canvassing is about voter identification - and nothing else. But this year - if you have the time (make the time!) - I’d take the trouble to talk to people and to listen. There are an awful lot of people out there at the moment looking for a political home. Let’s take the trouble to make ours warm and welcoming.

Let’s take the trouble to talk.

The American Primaries are in full swing, and the race is on for the next President of the United States who will be, as the journos will constantly remind us, the most powerful person in the world. Assuming of course the Chinese Government doesn’t call in the mortgage!

As soon as a few middle-class, middle-aged Americans attend a few meetings somewhere out in the plains, in a state few of us have heard of and even fewer have visited, our press are fascinated. As are our chatting classes and the webocracy.

But where is the sense of proportion? Last year, France, our closest neighbour, elected a new President. France, where millions of us take our holidays every year. Where tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of us have second homes. And how was the presidential election campaign in France reported, last year? Superficially to say the least.

35 years after what we joined what is now the European Union, we continue to remain unaware of it’s importance in our lives. Millions of our citizens live there. The greater part of our trade is with our European partners. But our Media pay scant attention to what goes on.

I’m pleading for a sense of proportion. Of course, I accept the pre-occupation with the US Elections until November. But I would like to see some attention devoted to the possible change of government in Spain, to developments in Eastern Europe and to the problems being faced by Sarkozy in France.

My suspicion remains that the main reason behind the poor coverage of Europe is the lack of journalists who understand anything other than English (and then…).

Next year sees elections to the European Parliament; a body which represents many of our interests and those of close to 500,000,000 Europeans. As Liberal Democrats we should be working hard (after November) to bring European issues to the forefront and to try to ensure that our media is giving proper attention to Europe and our role in the European Union.

For it or against it, Europe remains the most important factor in our lives, both culturally and economically. Hence my plea for a sense of proportion.

Dear Nick,

If you and you staff have the time, I’ve made many comments over the past two months about how the party needs reforming and reorganising.

But that’s not the object of today. I want to talk to you about the most important meeting of your first 100 days. A meeting, of course, that according to its to principle protagonists will not take place. A meeting, we will not be able to read about until one of you publishes your memoirs. I refer to your first meeting with David Cameron.

It’s important that you set out our stall. Point out the unlikelihood of a Tory majority in the next parliament, though he knows that already. Outline the deal-breakers for us for a future coalition government. An end to Council Tax. An end to ID cards. Real reforms in the public sector. Much of this he will agree with anyway.

Make sure he is well aware that the real talking would only start once a hung party comes about in which the Tories (or us!) are the largest party. Make sure that he is well aware that we will fight them tooth and nail and remain their worst nightmare in electoral terms.

It’s the most difficult meeting you face; but probably the most important. But if we want to create a truly Liberal Britain, we have to accept that coalitions are the inevitable consequence of a reformed constitution and that as a party we are mature enough to accept them, however reluctantly.

Yours sincerely,

Martin

* Martin Land is a Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat Activist.

This leadership election is, inevitably, getting a little messy. Why inevitably? Because attempts are being made to create massive policy differences where they simply don’t exist, on matters which are important to activists, but far less so to electors.

In case the advisors to Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne don’t know, the key talking points in my town are the middle classes bemoaning the price of petrol and pensioners and families, rightly, concerned about the rising price of staple foods. I wonder how many members of the two campaign teams are aware that bread has more than doubled in price this year?

In electing a leader, surely the key issue is leadership. And it’s not too late to show some.

My challenge to the two contenders is a simple one. Tell us how you are going to lead the PARTY as well as how you would lead the NATION. Because unless you get the first one right the second will never happen.

Tell us how you will improve our results in the elections in May. Tell us about the practical support you will give to Brian Paddick. Tell us about how you will use our largest parliamentary party in 80 years to go out to constituencies and help them build membership and get more councillors elected. Tell us what tactics and what strategy you will employ to ensure we win more seats in Parliament, as the current strategy seems to need reinvigorating. Tell us about how you value ordinary councillors, members and campaigners and about how you are going to give us better support and more attention in the future.

Tell us how you are going to LEAD us.

* Martin Land is a Cambridgeshire Lib Dem activist.