Author Archives: Tom Richards

Opinion: A rousing campaigning message from Lord Ashcroft (of all people)

Lord Ashcroft has done another enormous piece of polling, this time into the Lib Dem vote. A few of the more encouraging findings:

    • More people want a coalition including the Lib Dems (31%) than a Conservative majority (30%)
    • 30% of people could see themselves voting Lib Dem at the next general election
    • Only 1 in 5 think the Lib Dems have no real influence
    • Lib Dems outpoll the Conservatives on:
    o“Represents the whole country, not just some”(24% v 21%),
    o “Its heart is in the right place”(47% v 35%),
    o “stands for fairness”(41% v 30%)
    o “Stands for equal opportunity for all”(39% v 28%)
    o “Wants to help ordinary

Posted in Op-eds and Polls | Tagged , and | 7 Comments

Why the UKIP surge is good for Liberal Democrats

Party activists should be cheering on UKIP’s rise in the polls. Why? Because a UKIP surge would most likely end up making it easier for Liberal Democrats to win in Conservative marginals. By my reckoning, every 1% on UKIP’s popularity increases the Lib Dem majority over the Conservatives in these areas by about 90 votes. If last weekend’s polling, putting UKIP at 14%, is correct, that gives Lib Dems in Con-Lib marginals about a 1000 vote head start.

Where do these numbers come from? A recent ComRes poll found that, of people who said they were going to vote for …

Posted in Op-eds and Polls | Tagged | 43 Comments

Opinion: We should be making the positive case for immigration

The Economist’s front page this week signals its leader on immigration – which says that the Government is getting it wrong on immigration.

The Economist is right. The Government is getting it wrong. All the evidence points towards skilled migrants having a positive impact on the economy for everyone that’s already in the country. And the evidence for unskilled workers having any negative impact on wages or jobs is at best ambiguous. As the article points out (give it a read if you haven’t), making it near on impossible for …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 33 Comments
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Recent Comments

  • User AvatarMalcolm Todd 26th Apr - 11:17pm
    Bill le Breton (quoting Carl Gardiner) "But actually it’s the existing Prime Minister’s loss of a majority that is decisive. It remains the case that...
  • User AvatarTony Greaves 26th Apr - 11:02pm
    Bill - the powers that be are working on the assumption that negotiations will take longer than last time. They are not assuming that Cameron...
  • User AvatarEddie Sammon 26th Apr - 11:01pm
    I laughed into my coffee when he said "Biden and I have gotten so close there are some places in Indiana that won't serve us...
  • User AvatarATF 26th Apr - 10:42pm
    Hi Bill, Yes, I have read both and, as with all your posts, I respect your thinking. My concern comes with the section you cite...
  • User AvatarPaul Walter 26th Apr - 10:38pm
    Thank you for correcting me, Tony. My mistake.
  • User AvatarDenis Mollison 26th Apr - 10:34pm
    @Roland I think you underestimate just how much FPTP distorts politics, and diminishes the choice offered to voters - besides which, that choice is only...