Just been watching a report on the latest news from Zimbabwe (dictator tries to cling on to power by demanding recount before the first count has been finished). 

Granted, the BBC is banned from the country and therefore finding footage to accompany the report must have been tricky, but even so it was rather odd to see a report talking about people going to church in Harare accompanied by footage which had also been used just a few minutes previously over on Sky, although there it was illustrating a story about feelings in rural Zimbabwe. Impressive church, what with being in both the city and the rural hinterland at the same time.

This was then followed shortly afterwards by a shot of police getting into a truck, accompanying the report saying that tension was rising. Nothing odd there you might think, except the very same clip was used a few days previously by News 24 alongside a John Simpson report which said that the place was surprisingly calm with few police in evidence. Rising tensions? Surprising calm? Must all look the same I guess.

… And three years since this video was first broadcast:

It’s not that Lib Dem Voice doesn’t do polls… we’re just quite suspicious of those who want to treat each and every one with undue reverence. In particular, we try not to get excited by individual polls showing a sudden rise/fall in support for any political party. Chances are it’s a blip which tells you nothing about the next general election.

Still, there are some issues where opinion polls are all we have to go on in terms of judging wider public attitudes. So it’s interesting to note this paragraph from today’s Times poll asking about Europe:

The vast majority of voters (70 per cent) favour some sort of referendum on Europe, with just 19 per cent disagreeing. But there are big variations in preferences: 18 per cent want one just on the Lisbon treaty; 16 per cent one on whether Britain should stay in the EU, but not on the treaty; and 36 per cent a referendum on both in and out of the EU and on the treaty. Just 19 per cent do not believe there is a need for any referendum on the EU at present. Professionals and managers (28 per cent) and Labour voters (28 per cent) are the most likely to believe there is no need for a referendum. Only 15 per cent of Lib Dem voters back Mr Clegg’s position of just an in/out treaty.

Despite all the fuss last week – and the pillorying the Lib Dems took for their position – it seems the ‘in/out’ option (with 16%) is pretty much as popular as the Tories’ preferred option of a referendum solely on the Lisbon Treaty (18%). The runaway winner with 36% is the combination referendum, asking both about the Lisbon Treaty and the ‘in/out’ option.

It’s interesting to note that the Lib Dem policy of an ‘in/out’ referendum is less popular with Lib Dem voters than the public as a whole. I imagine this is because our voters are most likely to be pro-European, and so would regard a referendum on the UK’s membership to be driven by euroscepticism. I wonder if the pollsters told those they were questioning which party advocated which policy before they asked the question? It would, I suspect, make a difference.

There is a pretty fair analysis of the last week for the Lib Dems by The Guardian’s Martin Kettle today – you can read it here. On the issue de jour – Europe and the Lisbon Treaty referendum vote:

To witness our one truly pro-European party abstaining and divided at the climax of the most important European vote in British politics for years this week was to witness a parliamentary shambles. No party can ever be satisfied with a shambles. Yet while acknowledging the damage, it is important also not to exaggerate it. The Lib Dems will recover. Nick Clegg’s fledgling leadership is not at risk.

Indeed Wednesday night’s abstention and pro-referendum rebellion was probably the least worst option for the party. The free vote that some of Clegg’s critics advocate on the Lisbon treaty referendum would have seen half of the party in the pro-referendum lobby and the other half, including Clegg himself, in the anti. The derision that would have greeted that damaging spectacle would easily have eclipsed the derision provoked by the abstention. And anyway, Europe isn’t a free-vote issue.

This slightly misses the point. Europe might not be a free vote issue, but a referendum on a treaty has been regarded as a free vote issue by the party in the past – most notably under Paddy Ashdown’s leadership during the Maastricht debates in 1993. This phase of the party’s policy on Europe is omitted by Mr Kettle. Nonetheless, it’s welcome to see a commentator retain a sense of perspective, something that’s been a tad lacking in other media analyses or in the blogosphere. Read more »

Well, the Lib Dem parliamentary party may not exactly have covered itself in glory yesterday – but at least we can console ourselves with the fact that yesterday’s Commons’ votes exposed the Tories as just as split as ever on Europe. This from Philip Cowley’s excellent revolts.co.uk:

The party leader abstained, but a quarter of his party disagreed with him, leading to the largest rebellion since he assumed the leadership. Not Nick Clegg, but David Cameron.

As everyone examined the damage done to Nick Clegg’s leadership by the largest Lib Dem rebellion in six years, the Commons also divided on New Clause 9 in the name of William Cash. It stated that nothing in the new Treaty of Lisbon should be construed by any court in the United Kingdom as affecting the supremacy of the United Kingdom Parliament.

The Conservative frontbench line was to abstain. But 40 Conservative MPs, including 12 members of the 2005 intake, voted for Cash’s clause. Europhile Ken Clarke voted with the Government in the no lobby. This was the largest Conservative rebellion since David Cameron came to power, involving a quarter of his MPs. It was also the largest rebellion by MPs of any party during the passage of the Bill to date.

Since no-one else seems to be reporting this, we thought we’d better let you know…

Yesterday’s media interest in the Lib Dems’ troubles resulted from two points:

1) the party isn’t usually divided on Europe, so the fact that there was a split in the ranks aroused curiosity. We are a proudly internationalist party which is, by and large, strongly in favour of a reformed, transparent and democratically accountable EU. Yesterday doesn’t alter that one jot. The contrast with Labour’s and the Tories’ disinterest-cum-hostility to the EU couldn’t be sharper.

2) that this was Nick Clegg’s first real test as leader. I’m genuinely curious to know why it was decided to impose a three-line whip on abstention on a Lisbon Treaty referendum. A free vote on the issue would have been perfectly easy to justify, and would have avoided yesterday’s debacle. There must be a logical reason why Nick decided on this rigid course – but I can’t for the life of me figure out what it was.

Ultimately, yesterday’s events will blow over. Yes, it was badly handled, but let’s get things in perspective. All leaders suffer a sticky patch – think Gordon’s Brown’s election-dithering, or David Cameron’s grammar school problems. The key question is what they learn from it. I’m sure that’s something Nick is reflecting on today.

This was always going to be a tricky Prime Minister’s Questions for Nick Clegg, given the delight both Labour and the Tories take in ganging up on the Lib Dems in Parliament. In fact, as in previous weeks, Nick easily withstood the yelling and abuse from the other benches, and was able to ask clear and punchy questions on the subject of the week: Europe.

Fairness demands I note that Gordon Brown is improving at PMQs - his reponses to Nick were pretty sharp, and he also seems to be getting the measure of David Cameron in their sparring sessions. Judge for yourselves below.

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Well, it’s three according to the Telegraph’s Three Line Whip blog and The Times’s Red Box blog - they are:

* Alistair Carmichael - Scotland and Northern Ireland spokesman and MP for Orkney and Shetland (majority: 6,627)
* Tim Farron - Countryside spokesman and MP for Westmorland and Lonsdale (majority: 267)
* David Heath - Justice spokesman and MP for Somerton and Frome (majority: 812)

BBC.co.uk is so far listing only Alistair and David.

Nick Clegg has done a tour of the media circuit to make his case: he was on BBC2’s Newsnight last night, and BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme this morning.

The party’s position is certainly cogent - a simple ‘in or out’ Euro referendum is long overdue to allow both sides of the argument to make their case honestly about why they think the UK should remain within, or else leave, the EU. The EU has changed beyond all recognition since the 1975 referendum, a vote in which anyone under the age of 50 was unable to take part. This is a popular and right case to make.

But two points are still unclear to me about the stance the parliamentary party has adopted (in spite of all that I’ve read on the subject):

1. why the Lib Dems voted for a referendum on Maastricht - unlike the Tories, who have mysteriously discovered the joy of referendums in opposition - but not on Lisbon. This places us on a side of the argument which should make all liberals nervous: that this isn’t the right issue on which to allow the public to have their say.

2. why the Lib Dems allowed our MPs a free vote on Maastricht but not on Lisbon. It is perfectly reasonable for our MPs to conclude that - if they promised in their election manifesto to support a Euro Treaty referendum - they should now stand by the closest they can get to that pledge.

This is not to accept the facile argument put forward by William Hague and the rest of the Tories that the two treaties are both pretty well the same. They are very different beasts. But to put down a three line whip to abstain leaves our MPs with little room to stand by what they may regard as a personal commitment to their voters. It also allows little room for political reality for those MPs defending slim majorities.

I am happy to defend the party’s stance - supporting a referendum on the EU question that matters: ‘in or out’ - on the doorstep. I am concerned at the way our strategy is being played out in parliament.

According, at any rate, to the Daily Mail’s Ben Brogan:

My colleague Jane Merrick has learned that Susan Kramer walked out of a “shadow cabinet” meeting this morning in a symbolic show of frustration over the leader’s confused position on an EU referendum. She was followed by David Heath. Bizarrely, Ms Kramer will abstain with Mr Clegg tomorrow, while Mr Heath will defy the Whip by voting for a referendum.

As LDV reported yesterday, when a Maastricht Treaty referendum was debated in Parliament in 1993, the party was also split - but on that occasion, a free vote was offered, sparing any political embarrassment. Why not this time?

Update (8.40 am, 5/3/08): Adrian Sanders gives the real reason for the ‘walk-out’, in the comments below. Some uninformed tittle-tattle from Mr Brogan, it seems.

The date: 21st April, 1993.
The subject: A consultative referendum on the Maastricht Treaty

The following 72 Tory MPs, who still sit for their party in the House of Commons, voted against a referendum:

Peter Ainsworth, David Amess, Michael Ancram, James Arbuthnot, Peter Atkinson, Tony Baldry, Henry Bellingham, Sir Paul Beresford, Tim Boswell, Peter Bottomley, Julian Brazier, Angela Browning, Simon Burns, Alistair Burt, Sir John Butterfill, James Clappison, Kenneth Clarke, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Sir Patrick Cormack, David Curry, David Davis, Stephen Dorrell, Alan Duncan, Nigel Evans, David Evennett, Michael Fabricant, Liam Fox, Roger Gale, Edward Garnier, Cheryl Gillan, John Greenway, John Gummer, William Hague, Oliver Heald, David Heathcoat-Amory, Charles Hendry, Douglas Hogg, John Horam, Michael Howard, Michael Jack, Robert Key, Greg Knight, Jacqui Lait, Edward Leigh, David Liddington, Peter Lilley, Peter Luff, Andrew MacKay, David Maclean, Patrick McLoughlin, Michael Mates, Andrew Mitchell, Malcolm Moss, Richard Ottaway, Jim Paice, Eric Pickles, John Redwood, Andrew Robathan, Nicholas Soames, Bob Spink, Richard Spring, Sir John Stanley, Anthony Steen, Gary Streeter, Ian Taylor, David Tredinnick, Peter Viggers, Nigel Waterson, Ann Widdecombe, David Willetts, Tim Yeo, Sir George Young.

Here’s the roll-call of the 12 Lib Dem MPs who supported a referendum on the Maastricht Treaty (sitting MPs are denoted by an *):

David Alton, Paddy Ashdown, Alan Beith*, Menzies Campbell*, Don Foster*, Nick Harvey*, Simon Hughes*, Nigel Jones, Charles Kennedy*, Liz Lynne, Matthew Taylor*, Paul Tyler

And here’s the four Lib Dem MPs who voted against a referendum in 1993:

Alex Carlile, Sir Russell Johnston, Robert Maclennan, David Steel

Hat-tip: Philip Cowley of Revolts.co.uk, courtesy Ben Brogan.

A curiosity from the “I want a referendum” campaign. Their news release today claims:

I Want a Referendum today releases an ICM poll of 1,000 people who voted Liberal Democrat at the last General Election … The poll also finds that if only one question is to be asked then Liberal Democrat voters would prefer a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty to a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU.

And yet the full tables from ICM contain no such question, which as far as I can see leaves only two possibilities:

a. They’ve made up or got horribly wrong their own poll results in their own press release, or

b. They’re keeping hidden some of the poll answers (though, as the press release has mentioned them under the British Polling Council rules, ICM should release them).

Anyway, if you want to see poll results which do really answer the “what sort of referendum would you want?” question, see the results of the poll from MORI issued by the Liberal Democrats today. They show the public in favour by 2:1 of having an in/out referendum rather than a Lisbon Treaty referendum.

Nick Clegg has just finished a press briefing at which he published results of a poll commissioned from MORI, which shows that by a margin of 2:1 voters prefer the Liberal Democrat policy of having a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU to David Cameron’s policy of only having a limited referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Only 8% of people want a referendum on both.

Today the right-wing papers are in full cry about a referendum claiming their view is representative of what the public wants. The Times leader says ‘Let the People Speak’ while The Sun puns its way to ‘EU must listen’.

Now the public have spoken about what sort of referendum they really want, will they listen…?

Lib Dem shadow foreign secretary Ed Davey has penned an article for The Independent’s Open House blog explaining why he ended up being sent out of the Commons, and why the rest of the parliamentary party followed him. You can read it in full here, but here’s an excerpt:

At the last election, all three parties stood on manifestos that included a pledge for a vote on the then Constitutional Treaty, a Treaty that was truly historic, replacing all the past Treaties, from Rome to Maastricht and Nice, with one new EU Constitution. Difficult to deny this was a matter worthy of a referendum – not least because it would give the people a chance to vote on the most integrationist measures passed since we joined the European Community, namely the Single European Act and Maastricht, measures on which the Conservatives denied the country votes.

The debate in Parliament is whether a referendum on the much more modest Lisbon Treaty is the right way to honour that pledge – the Conservative position – or whether a referendum on Britain’s membership is the better way – the Liberal Democrat position. Or, I guess, whether the case for a referendum has now gone away totally – Labour’s position. So there’s a real choice between the three parties.

In brief, the argument for our position is best summed up ironically by William Hague, when he said about the Constitutional Treaty “the fact that it was a Constitution, not simply a treaty, would have revolutionised the EU.” Indeed, our leader at the last election, Charles Kennedy, said of our pledge, “It’s time for this debate - time for us to decide what we actually want from Europe. I believe, once the argument has been joined, the consensus will be that it’s better to be in than out.”

I think I might quibble with Ed’s opening sentence, mind:

Yesterday, much to my surprise, I found myself being dismissed from the Chamber of the Commons by the Deputy Speaker.”

Come on, Ed - I don’t think you can have been that surprised

Last week, Lib Dem MEP Chris Davies sparked controversy by revealing the findings of an internal audit of the European Parliament which, according to Chris, “is dynamite”:

Let’s be quite honest. I think the allegations within this report from our own auditors should lead to the imprisonment of a number of MEPs. I think it’s embezzlement and fraud on a massive, massive scale.”

Chris and the Lib Dems have called for the publication of the document – but their efforts look like being blocked by the budget control committee, aided and abetted by Labour and Tory MEPs. Today’s Times reports:

Neither of the two biggest groups in the European Parliament — the Socialist group that includes Labour MEPs and the EPP that includes the Conservatives — would declare an official position on publication last night. “

Y’see, that’s the difference between the Lib Dem and Labour/Tory approach to Europe: Lib Dems support a reformed European Union. Labour and the Tories prefer to keep the EU unreformed as a convenient whipping-boy.

In the two hours since LDV posted Newsflash: Lib Dems walk out of House of Commons – in protest at the Deputy Speaker’s refusal to allow a vote on the party’s proposal there should be a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty - the debate has raged in the comments thread: did our MPs do us proud by showing their anger at the denial of such an important issue being debated and voted on; or was it juvenile gesture politics designed to distract from the opposition of the likes of David Heath to the party line?

Well, here’s your chance to make your feelings clear – an LDV poll asking: “Were Lib Dem MPs right to walk out of the House of Commons in protest at the refusal to debate the party proposal for an ‘EU – in or out’ referendum?” Simple question, simple answer: yes or no. You can vote using the poll displayed in the right-hand column.

My view? Well, of course this was grandstanding politics: I’d be amazed (and disappointed) if the tactics weren’t discussed in advance. So what? Does any Lib Dem – do any of our critics – imagine that the party’s views would have been reported if our MPs had just sat there in stony-faced silence? Would that have somehow sent a dignified message? Or would it simply have been ignored by everyone?

It is clearly absurd that the Lib Dems should not be free to have debated in Parliament whether there should be a referendum on the UK’s continuing membership of the EU. For what it’s worth, I think the party has been mistaken to oppose a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, especially given we championed a referendum on Maastricht in the teeth of Tory opposition in 1993.

But I find Tory attacks on the Lib Dem stance hard to take seriously… If it were the Tory party putting forward the proposal for an ‘in or out’ EU referendum, their members would be ecstatic. And if Parliament’s arcane procedures barred them from having such a proposal discussed, the right-wing blogosphere would have exploded by now in self-righteous indignation.

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Yes they are, at least if you believe this morning’s Telegraph report, Nick Clegg faces EU treaty rebellion:

Mr Clegg signalled last month that he would help Labour block a Tory amendment to force a referendum [on Lisbon], saying: “We would vote against a referendum on the treaty.”

But members of Mr Clegg’s shadow cabinet are among a significant number of MPs who are understood to be unhappy with the decision. David Heath, the constitutional affairs spokesman, and Nick Harvey, the defence spokesman, are both understood to have told their constituency parties that they want to see a popular vote.

Neither man has been disciplined for their stance by party whips, which other MPs have seen as a green light to rebel. Of the Lib Dems’ 63 MPs, as many as 16 may be prepared to defy Mr Clegg, either by voting directly for the Tory amendment or by abstaining.

I can’t help finding it sad that the Lib Dems – for a long time the only party pretty much united in favour of a reformed and improved European Union – now face the prospect of being split on a key vote.

One thing’s for sure. The party cannot continue to oppose a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty on the grounds that it would be no more than a proxy for a referendum on EU membership – and then argue in favour of a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU.

News reaches us of a petition against Blair becoming President of the EU.

Its organisers are hoping for a million signatures before June.

I can’t put it any better than them:

In violation of international law, Tony Blair committed his country to a war in Iraq that a large majority of European citizens opposed. This war has claimed hundreds of thousands of victims and displaced millions of refugees. It has been a major factor in today’s profound destabilisation of the Middle East, and has weakened world security. In order to lead his country into war, Mr Blair made systematic use of fabricated evidence and the manipulation of information. His role in the Iraq war would weigh heavily on the image of the Union in the world, should he in fact be named its president.