Then why not seek out former Lib Dem media chief Mark Littlewood’s analysis in today’s Telegraph? I don’t agree with it all, but here’s a thought-provoking extract to chew on:

The truth is that the Liberal Democrats have yet to develop a compelling narrative to deal with the threat posed by Cameron – and with many Liberal MPs defending small majorities over the Tories in the south of England, the threat is very real indeed. Many may now conclude that a record of being a hardworking constituency MP and championing local causes will not be enough to save them in the face of the rising tide of Cameronism.

Greatly to his credit, Nick Clegg has dropped some hints that the LibDems could become the party of low taxation at the next election. But he has yet to adopt the policies to make such a claim truly plausible. Supporting changes in current tax rates without committing to reduce the overall tax burden is too complicated a message – and not one that is obviously attractive to soft Conservative voters. But if Clegg was willing to take the next logical step – and support a lower total tax package than the Tories in the party’s manifesto – this could make a considerable difference to the party’s prospects in the electoral battlegrounds of southern England.

The LibDems need to spend more time and effort in honing and developing their key national messages. They should start now. And they need to become a little more circumspect about the upsides of spending a six-figure sum and deploying hundreds of activists in one-off contests that sometimes look and feel like little more than glorified local council by-elections.

There are just five hours til polls close in today’s by-election to decide who will succeed Boris Johnson as MP for Henley.

The widespread expectation is of a Tory victory – it is one of their safest seats – but there has been a great deal of energy behind Stephen Kearney and the Lib Dem team, so no-one’s ruling out a reduction in the Tory majority, or even a shock result.

Here’s what happened the last time the seat was contested, in 2005:
Conservative (Boris Johnson): 24,894 (54%)
Liberal Democrat (David Turner): 12,101 (26%)
Labour (Kaleem Saeed): 6,862 (15%)
Green (Mark Stevenson): 1,518 (3%)
UKIP (Delphine Gray-Fisk): 1,162 (3%)
Turnout: 68%

It strikes me there are three key questions which will determine how the result is viewed:

1. Has the Tory majority – either in actual or percentage terms – increased? If yes, then there’s no doubting this is a good result for the Conservatives.

2. How close can the Lib Dems get to the Tories; can we even overtake them? It would take a 15% Con-to-LD swing for the Lib Dems to win: that would be phenomenal. However, any increase in Lib Dem support at all would suggest that there are still folk willing to switch to the Lib Dems from the Tories – which bodes well for the party’s prospects in other southern England constituencies; and from Labour – despite Tory suggestions after the Crewe by-election that Labour defectors are switching direct to the Tories.

3. The question for Labour is how far their vote gets squeezed. No-one expects them to match their 15% in 2005; PoliticalBetting.com’s Mike Smithson believes they will lose their deposit and score below 5%, which would be a truly crushing defeat. The question is: who will those Labour voters switch to? If we were back in the two-party politics the media likes to promote, it should logically be the Tories who will be beneficiaries – in which case their majority should increase. If they switch in any number to the Lib Dems, perhaps the media will bear in mind that three-party politics remains the order of the day.

Not a good day to be on the Conservative by-election team by the looks of it.

In summary, we have legal action threatened over a magazine by David Cameron on Friday, which was within a matter of hours disowned by his media team (who told the media they were backing off it) and then today his candidate denied the threat was ever made. It wasn’t a very convincing denial mind you, what with it being made to the very journalist to whom Cameron had talked about the legal threat on Friday. Oops.

Oh and magazine publishers Archant are getting involved - but it’s a Conservative Henley magazine they’re taking action over.

Meanwhile, John Howell has been snapped using written notes to tell him how much a pint of milk, six eggs, a loaf of bread and a litre of petrol cost.

It has though been a good day for Stephen Kearney, who came through really strongly in the BBC Radio Berkshire hustings.

Featuring a host of stars including Paddy “I never predict the outcome of elections, but this one feels good” Ashdown, Ming Campbell, Julia Goldsworthy, Nick Clegg, Brian Paddick, lots of balloons and several printing machines:

Details of how to help in the Henley by-election at are www.henleylibdems.org.uk

There are two political parties, let’s call them A and B.

Both of them distribute magazines in a by-election promoting their candidate.

Party A’s magazine says on it that it is publised by party A. Party B’s magazine doesn’t say anything similar.

The BBC’s verdict on party A’s magazine is that “It’s not designed to make you think that it’s not from a political party” (Peter Henley, TV news, Thursday evening) .

So which party and its leader do you think has complained about the other party’s magazine?

Yup, that would be David Cameron and the Conservatives saying how disgraceful it is for the Liberal Democrats to be distributing a magazine which says it is from the party, whilst their own party’s magazine, er…, doesn’t.

Of course these inconsistencies are nothing new.

Remember the Ealing Southall by-election for exmaple? That’d be when the Conservatives threatened to sue the Liberal Democrats for a photo in a leaflet saying it broke all manner of laws … on the very same day that the Conservatives themselves were delivering a leaflet which would have been guilty of all the same offences too if their interpretation of the law is to be believed.

P.S. Headline from ThameNews.Net: “Tory’s withdraw lawsuit threat” (20 June 2008)

Sit back, kick off your shoes and enjoy a quality piece of political timing.

Day One: Conservative by-election candidate and county councillor John Howell misses two key votes on a proposed so-called eco-town in Oxfordshire.

Day Two: Conservative MP Grant Shapps speaks out against eco-towns in Parliament saying what an important issue it is.

But presumably not important enough for John Howell to turn up and vote on the topic?

Classy timing from Grant Shapps don’t you think?

The BBC is reporting:

The Conservatives are threatening legal action against the Lib Dems over the Henley by-election. They have written to the Lib Dems over allegations concerning a local community hospital, which they say their candidate has always supported.
Unless the Lib Dems withdraw a leaflet and remove claims from their website by noon, the Tories say they will sue. A Lib Dem spokesman said they would not be withdrawing the comments, adding: “We feel we are on firm ground”.

You can read the story on Stephen Kearney’s website here.

Separately, and more bizarrely (well, the story does involve Boris Johnson), the London Mayor has taken umbrage at a Lib Dem magazine he claims pretends to carry a by-lined article from him. You can view the leaflet here.

As can be seen, the bits which Boris says pretend to be by him are clearly labelled ‘Our view’ (ie, the editorial line of the magazine) – not ‘My view’, still less ‘Boris’s view’.

I’ll eat my hat if the Tories actually do pursue legal action to court on either count: their comments strike me as a way of attempting to distract the Henley Lib Dems campaign team, and to stir things up with the media… it’s almost as if the Tories are feeling a bit rattled. Surely not? After all, PoliticsHome’s panel of 100 experts predicts they’ll romp home with an increased majority.

1. Conservative candidate John Howell is asked a dozen questions about his links to developers - but repeatedly refuses to answer them fully.

2. John Howell is a county councillor, but misses two key votes on whether a new town should be built in the Oxfordshire countryside.

3. And then to round it off, John Howell has been talking about how important campaigning to save the local hospital has been to him, but the two key hospital campaigners have pointed out that:

The Townlands Campaign has always been a community based campaign led by local people. The first time I was ever aware of John Howell was after he was first selected as a candidate in the by-election.

No-one I have spoken to on the Townlands Steering Group is aware of any contribution he has made to the campaign to save Townlands Hospital

and

John Howell has never been heard of until this election started.

The local Conservative Party has watched from the sidelines, whilst the Henley Residents Group has inspired the Town Council to fund the ‘Support Townlands campaign’ to the tune of £30,000. (Source: henleylibdems.org.uk)

P.S. I don’t think his attacks on the Liberal Democrats for wanting a full-time police station in Henley are likely to turn out too well for him either. There’s a distinct whiff of panic about rushing out a poorly printed leaflet attacking another party for wanting better policing.

The Liberal Democrat Henley by-election campaign has upped the pressure today on John Howell, the Conservative candidate, over his controversial links to property developers.

From the party’s press release:

The Liberal Democrats have today written to the Conservative candidate in the Henley by-election, John Howell, urging him to clarify his links to property developers for the sake of local residents.

Mr Howell has so far failed to deny his links to a firm that helps property developers build on green belt and green field sites.

Chief Executive of the Liberal Democrats, Lord Rennard said:

“Local people deserve to know the full facts about John Howell’s links to property developers. Protecting the countryside is a vital issue in this election.

“John Howell’s links to firms that want to develop in controversial locations poses questions about his suitability to be the local MP.

“Many people will think it is hypocritical of John Howell to have such strong links to developers whilst saying on his election literature that he wants to ‘Defend South Oxfordshire’s Green Belt’.”

Text of Chris Rennard’s letter: Read more »

Guardian Politics is currently leading with a story about the Conservative candidate in Henley - who works with a planning consultancy specialising in with a firm that builds on the greenbelt. This is rather unfortunate for a campaign where greenbelt development is particularly controversial.

Henley byelection: Tory candidate lobbying for planning firm while backing green belt

John Howell, the Conservative candidate in the Henley-on-Thames byelection, is campaigning to keep the green belt while acting as a lobbyist for a planning company that advises housebuilders on contentious land and property deals.

Howell, who is citing fighting development in Oxfordshire’s green belt as one of the key reasons to support him in the byelection on June 26, was accused of “grade-A hypocrisy” by the Liberal Democrats.

Coincidentally, this unfortunate fact also appears on the front of the next Lib Dem newspaper, and electronic copy of which also dropped through the electronic letter box of Lib Dem Voice. Read more »

If you’re going to do an election countdown clock, you’d have thought you’d set it to hit zero either when polls open at 7am or when polls close at 10pm. But setting it to hit zero in the early evening? Well, if someone in Henley Conservatives is reading this, I suggest you change your countdown clock pretty quickly.

In the meantime, here’s a video of Nick Clegg’s first campaign visit to Henley to support Stephen Kearney:

Boris Johnson has just announced at his London Mayor press conference that he’s standing down as MP for Henley. By-election to follow shortly…

Dear Friends,

Despite Mr Boris still keeping us all wondering whether he will be keeping his promise to step down, Liberal Democrats are FLOCKING to the constituency of Henley, Thame and South Oxfordshire to support Mr Stephen Kearney.

I am sure that you will all understand that Mr Stephen has a VERY busy schedule, but he has very kindly found a time when he can SQUEEZE in an interview with a small number of bloggers! It is this Sunday, 8th of June, at 10am, and we shall be in the campaign headquarters in Thame.

I am SORRY that that means a VERY early start for some people, but just think of it as an OPPORTUNITY to go canvassing instead!

Please e-mail me on if you would like to take part.

Love from Millennium
(read my diary!)

You’d have thought that having splits in the Henley Conservatives over the selection of their by-election candidate, or having a Shadow Cabinet member flatly contradict what the Conservatives are claiming in their leaflets would be enough bad news to be going on with for the Conservative by-election campaign.

But oh no. Now Mark Stevenson, the Green Party candidate in the Henley Parliamentary by-election, has attacked Conservative candidate John Howell and his campaign for the content of its leaflets: “It’s interesting that the Conservatives should already feel so insecure about their candidate that they appear to have resorted to deliberate lies before the campaign is a day old.” (Source: ThameNews.net)

Although Mark Stevenson doesn’t mention it, Stephen Kearney - the Liberal Democrat candidate - also lives in the constituency, in Aston Rowant.

UPDATE: Conservative by-election candidate John Howell has now come under scrutiny for his links to property developers.

With the writ for the Henley Parliamentary by-election widely expected to be moved this week, Sunday’s BBC1 Politics Show broadcast another report on the state of the campaign so far.

Their previous report highlighted the splits in the Henley Conservative Party over the selection of their candidate (now John Howell), whilst yesterday’s featured the strong start to Stephen Kearney’s campaign, the slow start to the Conservative campaign and how Labour “haven’t get a chance in hell” (Cllr Terry Buckett, Henley Residents Group).

You can watch the full piece here, though one story that broke too late for the piece is that of senior Conservative MP Alan Duncan contradicting one of the key local Henley Conservative campaign promises.

UPDATE: John Howell has now come under scrutiny for his links to property developers.

Oh dear. Not really the best of starts to the Henley Conservative campaign. First there was David Cameron having to tell the local party what to do regarding selections after the pleas of John Maples were rebuffed. Then the BBC reported how the local Conservative Party was split over their Henley selection.

And now: Conservative Shadow Business Secretary Alan Duncan has contradicated what the Conservatives are telling people locally.

You see, one of their local messages is, “Local Conservatives have called for Gordon Brown to perform another Budget U-turn, by ditching his planned road tax increases” (source: Henley Conservatives website), but this morning Alan Duncan told Sky TV something rather different:

Alan Duncan said the Tories would not be in a position to reverse the road tax because Mr Brown has left no money in the kitty. ”We ought to be in a position where there is a lot of money in the kitty, but we are not.

 ”We are in a position where we have no power to alleviate the pain because there is nothing in the kitty.  Gordon Brown has over spent and borrowed and he is highly culpable for that. (Source: Politics Home).

And indeed Conservative Home has headlined this story, “Alan Duncan says there’s no money in the kitty to reverse the road tax.”

Not a happy start to a campaign really having a senior MP going on TV and contradicting one of your key local campaign messages is it? (And imagine quite how some Conservative bloggers would react if the roles were reversed…)

Earlier tonight, John Howell was selected by the Conservatives to be their candidate in the Henley by-election. His selection has been welcomed by Stephen Kearney from the Liberal Democrats, who has already been hard at work on the Henley by-election campaign trail for several weeks:

After a difficult selection process [a reference to this], the Conservatives have settled on County Councillor John Howell as their candidate in the forthcoming by-election.

The Liberal Democrats have welcomed the news of the selection of John Howell. Liberal Democrat candidate and charity boss Stephen Kearney said: “I am looking forward to debating the issues that affect people across the Henley constituency with Councillor John Howell in the coming weeks.

“Our campaign has been up and running for several weeks, Nick Clegg has surveyed the entire constituency and we are getting a very warm reception on doorsteps. We are ready for the Conservatives to fire the starting gun whenever they are ready to provide local people with a date.” 

John Howell is an Oxfordshire County Councillor, which means his and the Conservative Party’s record on the county council is now likely to come under very close scrutiny. Indeed, the party’s own press release on John Howell’s selection states:

Liberal Democrat Deputy Director of Campaigns Neil Fawcett said:

“We are delighted that the Conservatives have settled on Councillor John Howell. The selection of a senior County Councillor will provide local people with the chance to have their say on rising Council Tax bills and the Conservatives’ record in Oxfordshire.

“Stephen Kearney will be a strong voice for local people. He has an excellent track record of listening to local communities as part of his charity work. Stephen has already taken up a number of local issues such as the loss of local services, expansion onto the green belt and anti-social behaviour.”

UPDATE: John Howell has now come under scrutiny for his links to property developers.