Last night’s stunning SNP victory in Glasgow East caps one of the worst six months for the Labour party in at least 25 years. Policy gaffes and u-turns; a deeply unpopular leader; and catastrophic election defeats across the country – it doesn’t get much worse than this.

The time has now passed when the question could genuinely be asked whether it is in Labour’s interest to replace Gordon Brown as leader. The answer is just too obvious: of course they should, and (if it can be achieved in a dignified way) the sooner the better. It isn’t just a matter of the polls, though they are dire. More importantly, Mr Brown has proven himself to be a failure as a leader, unable to communicate his vision, or how that vision could translate into policy, to either his party or the public. And that’s a pretty basic requirement for a political leader.

It isn’t that anyone in the current cabinet stands out as a fantastic leader; it’s that few of them would be any worse. (And when you look at the current cabinet that’s as damning a verdict as you can get). Any Labour MP today sitting on a majority of between 5,000 and 10,000 must surely reflect that it’s more likely they’ll survive the next general election with a more dynamic leader.

The real question now is: what should Labour look for in their next leader? Should it be someone who’s a ‘competent caretaker’ (Jack Straw), ‘steady as she goes’ (Alan Johnson, John Denham, Hilary Benn), an ‘articulate woman’ (Harriet Harman, Tessa Jowell), or a ‘bright young thing’ (David Miliband, James Purnell).

Either of the first two categories – ‘competent caretaker’ or ‘steady as she goes’ – would, in my view, be a mistake for Labour. Though it might halt the haemorrhaging in Labour’s support, it would be little more than damage control, a safety first tactic to stave off a potential landslide defeat. It would be a sign that Labour had given up on winning a fourth term, and was retiring to lick its wounds.

The riskier options – an ‘articulate woman’ or ‘bright young thing’ – are less likely, I think, but would at least suggest something new and fresh, a chance for Labour to regroup with vigour with the aim of seeing off David Cameron and his band of Tories. In the case of either Messrs Miliband or Purnell, however, the question that will haunt them is: ‘Will I be Labour’s William Hague?’

Well, let’s not pretend it was a great result: losing three-quarters of your support is rarely likely to cheer a party up. But it would be equally silly to read anything of great significance into it, either. As I pointed out yesterday, in the 1999 Hamilton South by-election the Lib Dems trailed in a pretty dire sixth place: it meant diddly-squat for the party’s fortunes at the subsequent general election.

Yes, it’s true, the Tories managed only to suffer a small drop in support. But, then, it’s not much of a surprise to anyone to learn that the Tories have a larger core vote than the Lib Dems.

There’s a danger on a site like Lib Dem Voice that we focus only on the Lib Dem aspects of politics. But the plain truth is this by-election was never about us: it was about the voters using the second-placed party to give Labour a belting. End of.

Finally, though, let’s pay tribute to Ian Robertson and the Scottish Lib Dems. Fighting an election you know you’re not going to win can be pretty depressing: whatever the actual vote we won, our candidate did us proud.

The result:

SNP 11,277 43.1% (+26.1%)
Labour 10,912 41.7% (-19.0)
Conservative 1,639 6.3% (-0.6)
Liberal Democrat 915 3.5% (-8.3)

Majority 365 1.4%
Turnout 42.3% (-6.0)

What is it about parliamentary by-elections? You wait ages for one, then four come along at once. Hot-on-the-heels of Crewe and Nantwich, Henley and Haltemprice & Howden is Glasgow East, theoretically at least a safe Labour seat. Here was the result at the 2005 general election:

David Marshall, Labour 18,775 (61%)
Lachlan McNeill, Scottish National Party 5,268 (17%)
David Jackson, Liberal Democrat 3,665 (12%)
Carl Thomson, Conservative 2,135 (7%)
George Savage, Scottish Socialist Party 1,096 (4%)
Labour majority: 13,507 (44%), Turnout: 48%

It’s clear enough this is the proverbial two-horse race for first position, with the SNP apparently breathing down the Labour party’s neck. It would take a swing of more than 22% from Labour to the Nationalists for an upset to happen. Difficult, but certainly not impossible: 22% was exactly what the SNP achieved in the 1999 Hamilton South by-election prompted by George Robertson’s elevation to a peerage, though Labour clung on with a three-figure majority.

A lot will almost certainly depend this time on turnout. Fewer than half the voters turned out for the general election, so how many will show up to cast their vote today? The party which best motivates its supporter base will most likely emerge victorious.

Labour sources seem to be quietly confident of victory – but, then again, so they were in Dunfermline in 2006, when Willie Rennie sensationally snatched a famous by-election victory for the Lib Dems. There has been a marked complacency among Labour campaigners in Scottish constituencies in the past which suggests that all is up for grabs today.

For the Lib Dems it’s hard to know how to judge our result, given that it’s likely voters wanting to give the Labour government a kicking will choose to do so by voting SNP – which suggests our 12% vote in 2005 will get heavily squeezed. The Tory vote, already small at 7%, is more likely to be resistant.

In Hamilton in 1999, both the Lib Dem and Tory votes fell – indeed, the Lib Dems finished in sixth place, well behind the Scottish Socialist and Independent candidates: apparently it was “the worst placing in a by-election by any major party since the Liberal candidate in the Glasgow Camlachie by-election, 1948 also came sixth.” Yet our poor showing there had little significance for the party as a whole in Scotland.

In Ian Robertson the party has been fortunate to have an excellent candidate who – it’s widely acknowledged – has represented the Lib Dem cause well. Whatever vote Ian gets, he personally has come out of the campaign well.

In any event, the only real national significance of the Glasgow East result is whether Labour holds on, and what this means for Gordon Brown’s fortunes…

Is a Scottish Labour victory, however tight a squeak, good for the national Labour party, as it makes it less likely Gordon Brown will come under renewed leadership pressure? Or would that be a bad result for Labour precisely for that reason? After all, as John Rentoul notes on the Indy’s Open House blog, the polls suggest that Mr Brown is a drag on Labour’s ratings:

Cameron lifts his party, Brown drags his down. Labour is popular, Brown is not. Labour MPs will ponder those facts over the summer, whatever happens in Glasgow East today.

There’s high praise for the Lib Dems’ Glasgow East candidate Ian Robertson in The Herald today:

Yesterday he had Scots grandees Sir Menzies Campbell and Lord Wallace in to help, plus deputy leader Vince Cable, but he knows he won’t be giving up the teaching career any time soon.

Watch him on any of the televised hustings and you’ll be impressed. Most journalists have scored him as an excellent candidate and one to watch if a more winnable seat comes up.

Meanwhile, The Herald also reports on possible trouble for Labour following allegations that “the daughter of retiring Glasgow East MP David Marshall operated two private firms from the Marshall family home which also houses Mr Marshall’s publicly-funded office.”

The poll from The Daily Telegraph shows Labour holding the seat with the Liberal Democrats in third place, but importantly ahead of the Tories.

This has been an interesting campaign and one where there has been such immense media interest.

There are four TV appearances for our candidate Ian Robertson, with the first having taken place as you can see here. The Scotsman rated Ian as coming out best in the debate, giving him 9/10:

Emerged as the surprise star of the show. He was effective, forthright and intervened sharply across his opponents.

Our sincere thanks go to all of the volunteers who came to help this weekend, we had a good turnout and we would like as many to come up this weekend for the final week. Details of how to help here.

You are guaranteed a warm welcome.

Well, they say a week is a long time in politics! Wednesday saw the shock resignation of our Scottish Party Leader, Nicol Stephen, on Thursday we selected East End Ian Robertson for the Glasgow East by-election and then on Friday Labour selected nobody because the favourite didn’t turn up … you couldn’t make this up, could you?

The Liberal Democrats have a great candidate in Ian Robertson, a great campaign office at 888 Shettleston Road, Glasgow, G32 7XN and a fantastic team coming together.

If you look at the posters on the lampposts it really is only the SNP and the Liberal Democrats who are putting up a fight. Labour are just nowhere and Salmond’s Little Helpers in Holyrood, AKA Annabel’s Tories, are just making up the numbers.

If you would like to follow Ian’s campaign, just go to www.glasgoweastlibdems.org.uk and you can follow Ian on Twitter via twitter.com/ianrobertson

To read more about Labour’s candidate selection problems, see The Herald’s report - Labour disarray over by-election candidate

Just three and a half weeks after moving to Edinburgh to take up my new post as Deputy Director of Campaigns for Scotland, I find myself involved in another major election campaign!

We have selected born and bred Glaswegian Ian Robertson as our candidate to fight the by-election, and although the media are saying it is a two horse race we should remember that the SNP were in fact only 1,603 votes ahead of us in 2005.

This is an election that will be fought on the local issues that matter to the people in the East End of Glasgow - unemployment, crime and housing problems.

Here in Scotland, Labour are in meltdown slightly even more than in London, what with Gordon and Wendy Alexander, but the teflon is coming off Mr Salmond and the SNP and people are fed up of their empty and broken promises.

We have put together an awesome team from across Scotland and will welcome you to Glasgow East with open arms.