Category Archives: Polls

Latest ICM poll: Lib Dems at 12% for Westminster, but just 6% in the Euros

As I’ve mentioned before, The Guardian’s ICM poll is the one I wait for each month. The latest figures are now up, and the figures are… well, I’m not sure what to make of them really.

icm april 2014

In the snapshot of Westminster voting intentions, the Lib Dems are unchanged from last month on 12%, ahead of Ukip on 11% (+2%). Labour lead the Conservatives by 37% (-1%) to 32% (-3%). All the figures are within the margin of error. The party will be relieved to see that there’s …

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Nick v Nigel: the polls call it for Farage. Disappointing, but don’t panic! Here’s 3 reasons why you shouldn’t…

Farage cleggLast week we had one post-debate poll. It showed Farage won overall, but the split was more interesting: Labour and Lib Dem voters went for Nick, Tory and Ukippers for Nigel. As you’d probably expect.

This week we had two post-debate polls, and their results are remarkably similar. ICM says Clegg was reckoned to have won by 31% of viewers, Farage by 69%. YouGov says 27% preferred Clegg, 68% Farage.

ICM has released the breakdown of its poll. This week, Labour voters split (narrowly) in Farage’s favour, by 57% …

Also posted in Op-eds | Tagged , and | 56 Comments

So how’s my scenario 3 – a Tory lead of 6% by May 2015 – working out then?

Time to dust down a post from last December looking at scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling – two of which pointed to the Conservatives being likely to take a poll lead in the next year.

(NB: as then, please note my huge caveat – “the extent of the polling science on display here is me playing around on an Excel spreadsheet.”)

In particular, I was curious what might have happen to my third scenario in the meantime. So pasted below is what I wrote in December, but I’ve updated the graph to add the last four months’ average poll leads to see how they fit the trend-line. (The answer is pretty well.)

Scenario 3

File this under the heading “a bit of fun… probably” – let’s look at the whole parliament and insert a polynomial trendline to take us through to May 2015. Here’s what happens:

tory lead in may 2015 scenario 3

Under Scenario 3, then, the Conservatives bounce back from their mid-term slump to lead Labour by 6% come the next general election. It couldn’t happen – could it?

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Latest Euro poll shows how, in this May’s elections, every %-age point matters for the Lib Dems

clegg farage lbcInterest in the outcome of May’s European elections is picking up, at least judged by the number of polls the newspapers are commissioning – four have been published in the last fortnight. Here’s the average support for the parties:

    Labour – 30%
    Ukip – 26%
    Conservative – 24%
    Lib Dems – 9%

Converting that into seats using EuroElection predict’s online gizmo would produce the following figures:

Also posted in Europe / International | Tagged and | 27 Comments

New poll: Voters credit low-earner tax-cuts to Lib Dems, Clegg’s ratings spike following Farage debate challenge

Here’s a poll finding that will relieve Lib Dems and worry Tories – according to Ipsos-Mori more voters (45%) credit the Lib Dems with the Coalition’s tax-cuts than credit the Tories (33%):

tax cuts lib dme credit ipsos mori

Also posted in News | Tagged , , and | 31 Comments

Four-in-10 voters would never consider voting for the Lib Dems – but it’s not all bad news…

Some interesting poll data from Ipsos-Mori who were asked by British Future to look at attitudes towards voting for the four main political parties. Here’s three points that stood out for the Lib Dems:

  • Four-in-10 voters would never consider voting for the Lib Dems, Conservatives or Ukip. Labour is less unpopular: one-in-three voters would never consider voting Labour.
  • Lib Dem supporter are the most anti-Ukip: 62% say they would never consider voting Ukip. This compares with 43% of Lib Dems saying they would never consider voting Conservative, and 38% saying they would never vote for Labour.
  • The feelings mutual… Ukip supporters
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    Another Coalition? 1-in-5 of the public likes the idea, but is divided between Lib-Lab and Lib-Con pact

    Nick Clegg sparked a flurry of Coalition speculation this week, with his (relatively) warm words towards Labour on a BBC Radio 4 documentary this week. Everyone’s had their say – but what does the public think? YouGov has polled them to ask…

    The first question asked which option folk would like to see after the next general election…

    yougov coalition feb 2014

    So a Labour majority government is the preference of most (31%), narrowly ahead of a Tory majority government (29%). A coalition government involving the Lib Dems would be favoured by …

    Tagged and | 20 Comments

    Official: Lib Dem voters least bothered about penis size

    Kudos to YouGov for coming up with the most outrageously crow-barred poll finding to mark Valentine’s Day – that Lib Dem voters are least likely to think that penis size matters.

    yougov poll - 14 feb 2014

    The findings are not surprising. After all, we’ve always wanted proportional representation. We’ve always been wary of sudden swings to the left or right. And throughout the Coalition, Lib Dems have argued it’s not the size of our parliamentary party that matters, but what we do with our honourable members. We must now gird our …

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    Must-read analysis from Peter Kellner on where the 5 million missing 2010 Lib Dem voters have gone

    A fascinating piece of polling research from YouGov’s Peter Kellner in today’s Guardian, looking at how votes have churned since the 2010 general election.

    My working assumption looking at the headline poll ratings has been that there’s been relatively little movement between Labour and the Conservatives, with most of the movement from the Lib Dems to Labour and from the Tories to Ukip. YouGov’s research shows how simplistic that assumption about votes lost/gained in the last four years is:

    vote churn peter kellner - feb 2014

    Three quick points drawn from this table:

    Tagged , and | 40 Comments

    Lewis Baston on the polls and ‘How the Lib Dems will actually do’

    I wrote last October about election expert Lewis Baston’s forecast for the next election, based on his analysis not only of the polls, but also of the trends in the ‘swing seats’, the battlegrounds which, in a first-past-the-post voting system, actually matter. His forecast for May 2015 was that Labour would edge the Tories by 36% to 34%, with the Lib Dems on 16%, and relatively few seats changing hands.

    Over at Progress Online, Lewis has returned to the fray, and asked the question, ‘How will the Lib Dems actually do?’. Here’s his conclusion:

    It is always troublesome to translate

    Tagged and | 36 Comments

    First Euro poll of 2014 shows Lib Dems at 7%. Can we make being ‘The Party of IN’ work for us by the time of the real election?

    The first poll this year asking how people will vote in May’s European elections has been published today by YouGov. It gives the following headline ratings compared with the last elections in 2009:

      Conservative 17% (-11%)
      Labour 24% (+8%)
      Lib Dem 7% (-7%)
      Ukip 19% (+2%)

    Feed these numbers (plus those for the Greens, SNP/Plaid and others) into euroelection.co.uk and here’s what it means for numbers of seats:

    euro results forecast 2014

    The Lib Dems would be reduced from 11 seats to just 4, if these numbers are to be believed. The Tories number of MEPs …

    Also posted in Europe / International | Tagged , , and | 40 Comments

    And the winner of our Liberal Voice of the Year award is… Edward Snowden

    liberal-voice

    It's a fortnight since we launched our search for the Liberal Voice of the Year with the aim of finding the individual or group which has had the biggest liberal impact in the past 12 months. This is LibDemVoice's seventh such annual award, and as is our tradition, we looked beyond the ranks of the Lib Dems to find the liberal who’s most impressed our readers and is NOT a member of our party.

    We unveiled the shortlist here on New Year's Day. In total, 363 readers cast a vote in the past two weeks using a preferential voting system. The final (13th) round of voting gave the following result:

    Also posted in News | Tagged and | 30 Comments

    Latest ICM poll shows Lib Dems at 14%. I’d call that “mildly encouraging”

    guarian icm - jan 2014The latest ICM poll for The Guardian is published today. Its topline figures show Labour on 35% (-2%), the Tories on 32% (n/c), with the Lib Dems on 14% (+2%) and Ukip on 10% (+1%).

    The changes from last month are all within the margin of error, so nothing too dramatic can be read into it. The ratings are mildly encouraging for the Lib Dems. The ICM poll at the equivalent point in the parliamentary cycle – January 2009 – had the party at 16%. ICM’s poll is the one most eagerly awaited by poll-watchers, as the company has the best historic track record. It also tends to give the Lib Dems better ratings (than, say, YouGov) because of its methodology – but it’s a methodology which has yet to be tested under Coalition conditions.

    Input the figures into Electoral Calculus’s online prediction software and you’ll see they’d give Labour a majority of 24, with the Lib Dems reduced to 35 seats. In reality, I think the Lib Dems would do a little better than that on 14%, owing to the incumbency boost of our MPs’ (and local activists’) hard work – which would also likely eat into Labour’s seat tally, as it’s the Lib Dem-Labour battlegrounds where we’re most vulnerable.

    Tagged and | 32 Comments

    Have you voted in our Liberal Voice of the Year poll yet? Today’s your last chance!

    liberal-voiceIt’s one week and six days since we launched our seventh annual search for the Liberal Voice of the Year, as voted for by you, our readers. That means you have only a day left if you haven’t yet made your choice.

    You can read more about the short-list – as chosen by party members via our latest survey – here. And you can cast your votes in order of preference using the electronic ballot paper below. Many thanks to the hundreds of readers who’ve already done so.

    The poll closes tomorrow, 14th January, with results to follow…

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    NEW POLL: Who is your Liberal Voice of the Year?

    liberal-voiceToday’s the day we launch our search for the Liberal Voice of the Year to find the individual or group which has had the biggest impact on liberalism in the past 12 months. This is the seventh annual award, and as is our tradition, we’re looking beyond the ranks of the Lib Dems to find the greatest liberal who’s not a member of our party.

    The list of 14 nominees appears below. These were sought from Lib Dem members via our most recent survey; some 250 nominations were submitted, and each of those short-listed needed to clear a threshold of four separate mentions.

    To vote, please use the poll below to rank the nominees in order of preference.

    This year’s shortlist for Liberal Voice of the Year is as follows

    (in alphabetical first-name order):

    Also posted in News | Tagged and | 29 Comments

    Three scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling: which do you think looks most plausible?

    In 18 months we’ll know the result of the 2015 general election.

    Forecasting is a mug’s game – especially because there are an even greater number of variables this time than usual: a governing coalition of two parties with one established centre-left opposition, Labour, and an insurgent right-wing party, Ukip.

    But plenty are having a go at it anyway. Lib Dem MP Sir Nick Harvey reckons Labour has the next election in the bag. Psephologist Lewis Baston thinks we’re headed for a second hung parliament. And pollster Sir Bob Worcester believes the Lib Dems are destined for meltdown.

    Here’s my quick ‘n’ dirty analysis based on the polling trends. What I’ve looked at is Labour’s lead over the Conservatives according to the monthly average of opinion polls under three different scenarios.

    (Huge caveat straight off: the extent of the polling science on display here is me playing around on an Excel spreadsheet.)

    Scenario 1

    The Conservatives hit rock bottom in May 2012. The omnishambles budget and its desperate U-turns were followed by a poor set of local election results. There have been dips since then, notably when it looked like the economy might plunge into what was being billed as a triple-dip recession at the start of 2013, but never quite matching that period.

    Taking May 2012 as the peak of Labour’s lead, what would happen if the linear trend since then were to continue through to May 2015? This is what:

    polling trends 2015 - ST 2

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    Should we ban opinion polls from being published in the lead-up to election day?

    One-third of MPs (including a third of Lib Dem MPs) say yes – but more are opposed. At least that’s the finding of a ComRes survey of 159 MPs in the wake of the Indian Election Commission banning exit polls in the five states holding elections this month, plus a ban on any opinion polls in the final 48 hours of campaigning.

      Would you support or oppose a ban on the publication of opinion polls for a defined period prior to General Elections?

      Support
      All 30%

      Con 25%
      Lab 35%
      LibD 32%

      Oppose
      All 45%

      Con 49%
      Lab 39%
      LibD 38%

      Don’t know
      All 25%

      Con 26%
      Lab 26%
      LibD 30%

    Here’s what Andrew Hawkins, chairman …

    Tagged , and | 11 Comments

    YouGov: Nick edges Vince on economic trust

    Which politician (or combination of politicians) would the public most trust to run the British economy? That’s the question YouGov asked, and here are results courtesy the PLMR blog:

    economic trust

    Overall David Cameron has the single best economic trust figure (35%) followed by Ed Miliband (30%). As you might expect this breaks broadly on party lines: 91% of Tory voters trust their party’s leader; 76% of Labour’s trust theirs. The current Coalition partnership – Cameron and Clegg – are trusted by 29%, with Tories less enthusiastic and Labour supporters overwhelmingly hostile.

    Intriguingly …

    Tagged , , , , and | 10 Comments

    New Ipsos-MORI poll: Nick Clegg’s leader ratings in 5 graphs

    Much excitement among Tories today at the arrival of a new Ipsos-MORI poll showing them drawing level with Labour – 36% apiece – among those who say they’re certain to vote. The explanation’s not too hard to hazard a guess at: the return of economic growth is gradually feeding through into a feel-good factor. (For more on this, see this excellent post by YouGov’s Joe Twyman: ‘“It’s the long term trends, stupid”: the Conservatives, Labour and the economy‘.)

    However, it was some of the underlying IPSOS-Mori data concerning perceptions of the leaders which caught my eye… (All the graphs below …

    Tagged , , and | 12 Comments

    The poll findings which should encourage (some) Lib Dems and worry Labour

    I highlighted during Lib Dem conference season an interesting finding from Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling of marginal seats:

    Lord Ashcroft – the former deputy Tory chairman and the man who spends more on polling than all the political parties combined – released his latest findings this week. 13,000 voters in the 40 Conservative seats with the smallest majorities were surveyed, including eight where the Liberal Democrats came second in 2010: Watford, St Albans, Oxford West & Abingdon, Harrogate & Knaresborough, Camborne & Redruth, Truro & Falmouth, Newton Abbot and Montgomeryshire.

    Remember: these are seats which are potential Lib Dem gains in

    Tagged , and | 22 Comments

    On the Lib Dem conference polling bump (lack thereof) and what it means for the party

    The Labour party’s been enjoying a post-conference bump in the polls on the back of Ed Miliband’s bit of unexpected populism of promising a 20-month energy price freeze. At the weekend, Labour opened up an 11-point lead over the Tories, hitting 42%, its highest level since June.

    Of course party conferences frequently distort the polls. We’ll see if the Tories also get a boost from their week’s exposure (or whether the row between the Daily Mail and Ed Miliband has overshadowed it). And then we’ll see if any of these spikes have any kind of long-lasting effect, or — as usual …

    Also posted in News and Op-eds | Tagged , , , and | 70 Comments

    Ashcroft’s latest poll: a couple of interesting findings about the Lib Dems

    Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft — who spends more on polling than all three main political parties combined — published the latest of his surveys yesterday.

    It contained little good news for his party: ‘Perceptions of the Conservatives have been eroded further … This is the price we have paid for spending half a year talking amongst ourselves.’ And none of the party leaders would’ve been much chuffed by public perceptions of them, though Nick Clegg comes off worst, ‘ the weaknesses of the other two, being “weak”, “out of his depth”, and “out of touch” all at the same time.’

    One finding caught my eye, asking which outcome at the next general election the public would most like to see:

    ashcroft coalition poll

    Also posted in News | Tagged | 39 Comments

    Opinion polls yadda yadda. OR “Does Nate Silver mean nothing to you? Did he write in vain?”

    Two new polls last night: the daily YouGov tracker and the first post-local elections poll from Survation. The spread is interesting:

      Labour: 35% (Survation 39% (YouGov)
      Conservatives: 24% (S), 31% (YG)
      Lib Dems: 11% (S), 10% (YG)
      Ukip: 22% (S), 14% (YG)

    As Anthony Wells points out, Survation asks whether people will vote Ukip (most other firms just ask about the main three parties and ‘Others’) so usually gets the highest Ukip poll numbers. This latest survey is in line with the bounce other firms have shown and which the perceived winner of an election often records.

    Unsurprisingly, it’s Survation’s poll which has attracted most interest because it shows a gap if just 2% between the Tories and Ukip. Cue cries of ‘Tory meltdown!, ‘Cameron in crisis!’ and every other journalistic cliche.

    At the risk of precipitating on the parade of those who love nothing better than to indulge in over-excited hyper-speculation, can I make the following point. Or rather can I ask the following question: Does Nate Silver mean nothing to you? Did he write in vain?

    Also posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , and | 24 Comments

    Ukip surge to 18% in latest ICM poll: Lib Dems at 11%

    ICM: the pollster Lib Dems love and rely on the most. Maybe not tonight, though. Here’s The Guardian’s graph and report:

    guardian ukip poll - may 2013

    Ukip’s 18% is the best it has achieved with any pollster in any of the surveys logged at UK Polling Report. It is all the more remarkable for ICM, whose careful adjustments for voters who decline to reveal their political preference smooths out the wilder fluctuations of the electoral cycle.

    The Tories are plumbing depths they have not experienced in more than a decade – barring

    Tagged , and | 39 Comments

    Opinion: A rousing campaigning message from Lord Ashcroft (of all people)

    Lord Ashcroft has done another enormous piece of polling, this time into the Lib Dem vote. A few of the more encouraging findings:

      • More people want a coalition including the Lib Dems (31%) than a Conservative majority (30%)
      • 30% of people could see themselves voting Lib Dem at the next general election
      • Only 1 in 5 think the Lib Dems have no real influence
      • Lib Dems outpoll the Conservatives on:
      o“Represents the whole country, not just some”(24% v 21%),
      o “Its heart is in the right place”(47% v 35%),
      o “stands for fairness”(41% v 30%)
      o “Stands for equal opportunity for all”(39% v 28%)
      o “Wants to help ordinary

    Also posted in Op-eds | Tagged , and | 7 Comments

    ++ Another new Eastleigh poll – and this time it shows the Tories in front by 4%

    nick clegg eastleighLast night brought news of a Populus poll for The Times showing the Lib Dems ahead of the Tories by 33%-28%, a Lib Dem lead of 5%.

    But tonight a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday has shown the Tories ahead of the Lib Dems by 33%-29%, a Tory lead of 4%.

    Survation conducted an Eastleigh poll a fortnight ago — then they found the Lib Dems leading the Tories by 36%-33%. Here’s how the figures compare:

      Lib Dems 29% (-4%)
      Conservatives 33% (n/c)
      Ukip 21% (+5%)
      Labour 13% (n/c)

    Only …

    Also posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged , , and | 56 Comments

    Three things we’ve learned from today’s opinion polls

    Three interesting and important poll findings to report today…

    Big lead for Labour according to ICM

    polling station -  Some rights reserved by Simon Clayson
    First, the Guardian’s monthly ICM poll is out, showing the biggest Labour lead in almost a decade:

      Labour 41% (+3%)
      Conservatives 29% (-4%)
      Lib Dems 13% (-2%)
      Ukip 9% (+3%)
      Others 8% (+1%)

    The movements are more or less within the margin of error. Still, the Tories will be pretty disappointed to see the party get no bounce at all from David Cameron’s promise of a post-2015 EU referendum. Perhaps unsurprisingly it …

    Also posted in Op-eds and Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged , , , and | 131 Comments

    Majority back same-sex marriage

    Wedding ringsFrom the polling published this weekend:

    Would you support or oppose changing the law to allow same-sex couples to marry?
    Support: 55%
    Oppose: 36%

    Amongst Conservative voters the results are 44% – 49% (which is a statistical dead heat, when you remember to factor in the  margin of error).

    Interestingly, the majority support comes despite the lead-up to the question being a tadge inaccurate:

    Tagged , , and | 46 Comments

    And the winner of our Liberal Voice of the Year award is… Sam Bowman

    liberal-voiceIt’s a fortnight since we launched our search for the Liberal Voice of the Year with the aim of finding the individual or group which has had the biggest impact on liberalism in the past 12 months. This is LibDemVoice’s sixth such annual award, and as is our tradition, we looked beyond the ranks of the Lib Dems to find the liberal who’s most impressed our readers and is not a member of our party.

    We unveiled the shortlist here on New Year’s Day. In total, 755 readers cast a vote in the past two weeks using a preferential voting system. The final (8th) round of voting gave the following result:

    Tagged , and | 66 Comments

    NEW POLL: Who is your Liberal Voice of the Year?

    liberal-voiceToday’s the day we launch our search for the Liberal Voice of the Year to find the individual or group which has had the biggest impact on liberalism in the past 12 months. This is the sixth annual award, and as is our tradition, we’re looking beyond the ranks of the Lib Dems to find the greatest liberal who’s not a member of our party.

    The list of 10 nominees appears below. These were sought from Lib Dem members via our most recent survey; 222 nominations were submitted, and each of those short-listed needed to clear a threshold of five separate mentions.

    To vote, please use the poll below to rank the nominees in order of preference.

    This year’s shortlist for Liberal Voice of the Year is as follows

    (in alphabetical first-name order):

    Tagged and | 29 Comments



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