Category Archives: Polls

Only 3% swing to Tories in key Con/Lib Dem marginals

By Mark Pack | Published 26th September 2011 - 8:55 am

The detailed polling by Lord Ashcroft published today on ConservativeHome brings some encouraging news for the Liberal Democrats. In a set of key marginals held by the Conservatives and where the Liberal Democrats were second in 2010, there has only been a modest swing to the Conservatives since May 2010.

In the eight seats polled, the Conservative Party has a lead of 8% compared to an actual lead in May 2010 of 2%. This swing of 3% is much smaller than national opinion polls show. The vote share figures are:

Conservative 39% (-2% on May 2010)
Liberal Democrat 31% (-8%)
Labour 19% (+6%)

Con lead …

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Also posted in News | Tagged , , | 11 Comments

Polling the Lib Dems: the good, the bad, and the inbetween

By Stephen Tall | Published 20th September 2011 - 10:25 am

‘Less anger, but less clarity’ is how UK Polling Report’s Anthony Wells characterises the latest YouGov polling looking at the public’s attitudes to the Lib Dems. It’s interesting to read through the full data, available here, especially as the responses are directly comparable with a year ago, before the Lib Dems’ U-turn on tuition fees sent the party spiralling downwards in the polls.

The bad news

  • Nick Clegg’s popularity has taken a hit: from a net positive of +8% a year ago, to a net negative of -29% today. Worth noting, however, that this is primarily due to Nick’s toxicity with Labour supporters, with whom he has a rating of an astonishing -79%! Both Lib Dem (+51%) and Tory (+17%) supporters have net positive views of the Lib Dem leader.
  • There is greater opposition to the Coalition than a year ago. In September 2010, 43% supported it, while 46% opposed it (net -3%): today the split is 34%/57% (net -13%). Interestingly, among the group identified as ‘lost Lib Dem voters’ — ie, those who voted for the party in 2010 but no longer would — 29% support the Coalition, while 63% oppose it.
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Also posted in Op-eds | 22 Comments

Explaining Cameron’s Coalition: politics as seen through the eyes of MORI polls

By Mark Pack | Published 3rd August 2011 - 10:24 am

Explaining Cameron’s Coalition is the latest in the series of general election analysis by MORI’s Robert Worcester and Roger Mortimore, this time joined by two other authors. The book is therefore very much the tale of the 2005-2010 Parliament and subsequent general election seen through the eyes of MORI’s opinion polling, with an often pungent analysis which certainly fits Robert Worcester’s happiness to point out when he got predictions right and others got them wrong.

Though there is a smattering of references to polling results from other firms, the great strength of the MORI data is that many of the …

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Also posted in Books | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

So, why do you like Vince Cable?

By Mark Pack | Published 20th May 2011 - 6:49 am

Two findings jumped out at me from YouGov’s recent poll of Liberal Democrat members, parts of which Stephen Tall covered last week.

One is the similarity in many of the findings between YouGov’s poll and the Liberal Democrat Voice surveys of party members, a similarity which we’ve found before. That’s good news – and reassuring too, given how often our surveys are now quoted by the media as being ‘what Lib Dems think’.

The other is that it means the YouGov poll mirrors both our own findings and my own experience talking to Lib Dem members in many different …

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Also posted in LDV Members poll | Tagged , , | 13 Comments

Political Communication in Britain: the latest 2010 election book

By Mark Pack | Published 19th May 2011 - 8:44 am

Political Communication in Britain, edited by Dominic Wring, Roger Mortimore and Simon Atkinson, joins a long list of books already published on the 2010 general election. As with others it also faces the tough task of finding a niche between the burgeoning coverage of politics in the media, especially online, and the revitalised Nuffield general election series.

In its favour, Political Communication in Britain brings together a strong cast of journalists and politicians who were active participants in the election, with six of the nineteen chapters coming from insiders such as Sky’s Adam Boulton, the Labour Party’s Greg …

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Do Lib Dem members think the Coalition will collapse early? And what the public thinks about Nick Clegg…

By Stephen Tall | Published 12th May 2011 - 9:08 am

Channel 4 News has conducted an interesting YouGov poll surveying former and current Lib Dem members about their views on the Coalition. Their political editor Gary Gibbon gives the skinny on his blog:

We have a YouGov poll, taken from 396 Lib Dem members and 118 former members, on the programme tonight. It found that 52% of (396) members sampled thought the coalition wouldn’t run the full five years, though 63% thought it should. The poll suggests 35% think Nick Clegg shouldn’t lead the party into the next election (against 45% saying he should) – worth remembering he only won

…

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Also posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , , | 14 Comments

Pollwatch – State of the Leaders: Clegg -30%, Cameron -8%, Miliband -11% (May 2011)

By Stephen Tall | Published 4th May 2011 - 1:55 pm

Yesterday, Pollwatch looked at the current state of the parties; today it’s the turn of the party leaders, Messrs Clegg, Cameron and Miliband.

As with all polls, what follows comes with caveats. Four of the polling companies – YouGov, Ipsos-Mori, ComRes and Angus Reid – ask questions specifically to find out the public’s views of the party leaders. And each asks variants on the basic question – do you think Clegg/Cameron/Miliband are doing a good job – to come up with their figures, so comparison ain’t easy. For that reason, I’m taking a 3-month rolling average which isn’t very statistically ‘pure’, …

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Pollwatch – State of the Parties: Lib Dems 11%, Labour 40%, Tories 36% (May 2011)

By Stephen Tall | Published 3rd May 2011 - 3:35 pm

A total of 24 polls were published during April. Now, as our readers know, LDV doesn’t cover them with the same breathless excitements as other parts of the media. Most poll movements are within the margin of error, so it is only looked at over a period of time that you can detect whether there has really been any significant movements between the parties. With those caveats in place, let’s succomb to the inevitable and start poll-obsessing…

Here are the April averages for the parties across the six polling companies which conducted surveys:

  • Con 31%, Lab 42%, Lib Dem 11%

…

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A reason to be sceptical of what the public tells opinion pollsters

By Mark Pack | Published 14th April 2011 - 8:55 am

Much can be learnt from opinion polls, but a reminder of why not all results should be taken at face value is this:

If there were local council elections in your area on May 5th, how likely would you be to vote in them, where 0 means you will definitely not vote, and 10 means you definitely will vote?

10 – will definitely vote: 52%

This poll is not unusual in showing more people saying they will certainly vote than seems credible – and polls before previous elections (i.e. where we know the actual subsequent turnout) have often shown the number of …

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Pollwatch – State of the Leaders: Clegg -25%, Cameron -6%, Miliband -10% (April 2011)

By Stephen Tall | Published 5th April 2011 - 8:00 am

Yesterday, Pollwatch looked at the current state of the parties; today it’s the turn of the party leaders, Messrs Clegg, Cameron and Miliband.

As with all polls, what follows comes with caveats. Five of the polling companies – YouGov, Ipsos-Mori, ComRes, ICM and Angus Reid – ask questions specifically to find out the public’s views of the party leaders. And each asks variants on the basic question – do you think Clegg/Cameron are doing a good job – to come up with their figures, so comparison ain’t easy. For that reason, I’m taking a 3-month rolling average which isn’t very statistically …

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Pollwatch – State of the Parties: Lib Dems 11%, Labour 40%, Tories 36% (April 2011)

By Stephen Tall | Published 4th April 2011 - 8:00 am

Well, it’s been a while since last the Voice rounded-up the polls — but with Scottish/Welsh/local elections just weeks away, it’s time to dust down our spreadsheets and take a look at the current states of the parties.

A total of 35 polls were published during March. Now, as our readers know, LDV doesn’t cover them with the same breathless excitements as other parts of the media. Most poll movements are within the margin of error, so it is only looked at over a period of time that you can detect whether there has really been any significant movements between the …

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Also posted in Local government, Scotland, Wales | Tagged | 18 Comments

Who likes which party? What MORI’s data reveals

By Mark Pack | Published 27th March 2011 - 8:55 am

The pollsters MORI have recently re-released some of their polling data from January and the question of whether or not people like a party paints a very different picture from the usual voting intention figures.

Overall it shows the Conservatives the least liked party, Labour (despite its voting intention poll ratings at the moment) only marginally in the positive and the Liberal Democrats in the negatives, but with still a very healthy chunk of the population liking the party.

For the Conservatives and Labour these figures reinforce comments often made about them – that the detoxification of the Conservative brand never …

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LDV readers prefer “Senate” as name for elected second chamber

By Helen Duffett | Published 9th March 2011 - 1:15 pm

Second chamber piechart
Last week we asked Lib Dem Voice readers what an elected second chamber should be called, following Nick Clegg’s answer in the House of Commons:

The cross-party Committee, which I chair, has been considering proposals for a wholly or mainly elected second Chamber. The Government will publish a draft Bill shortly, which will then be subject to pre-legislative scrutiny. The Government hope that that will be carried out by a Joint Committee of both Houses.

Our readers’ poll results are as follows:

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Poll: What should an elected second chamber be called?

By Helen Duffett | Published 3rd March 2011 - 11:55 am

Nick Clegg said this week that the Government will shortly unveil its plans for reforming the House of Lords.

Answering questions in the Commons on Tuesday, Clegg said:

The cross-party Committee, which I chair, has been considering proposals for a wholly or mainly elected second Chamber. The Government will publish a draft Bill shortly, which will then be subject to pre-legislative scrutiny. The Government hope that that will be carried out by a Joint Committee of both Houses.

It’s very likely that the second chamber will be renamed, to reflect the constitutional changes.

Upper Houses around the world have a wide variety …

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Those Oldham East and Saddleworth polls: what do they mean?

By Stephen Tall | Published 9th January 2011 - 2:15 pm

We reported last night the results of the three opinion polls published ahead of the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election this Thursday. Let’s take a look now at the only two questions that matter when reading these polls…

1. Will the opinion polls prove accurate?

Opinion polls in by-elections have a notoriously patchy record — unsurprisingly, as the pollsters are unable to refine their techniques over time and measure their snapshots against actual results as they are able to with their general election predictions. For example, pre-by-election polls in Glasgow East (2008) and Blaenau Gwent (2006) showed the wrong winners.

They …

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Also posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged , | 94 Comments