Comments on: Crewe and Nantwich by-election: open (speculation) thread http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html Our place to talk - an independent website for supporters of the Liberal Democrat party in the UK. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 08:55:56 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: crewegwyn http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-51950 crewegwyn Tue, 10 Jun 2008 18:15:05 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-51950 er, alighting on here (wondering why it had reappeared) and discovering a thread I'd not previously soon [probably because I was at the count] STEVE, 1042pm on 22May - Paul Roberts was NOT "a lousy candidate" in 2005. Evidence? Well, how about his achieving the highest share of the vote we have ever achieved in the constituency?? er, alighting on here (wondering why it had reappeared) and discovering a thread I’d not previously soon [probably because I was at the count]

STEVE, 1042pm on 22May -

Paul Roberts was NOT “a lousy candidate” in 2005. Evidence? Well, how about his achieving the highest share of the vote we have ever achieved in the constituency??

]]> By: Oranjepan http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49554 Oranjepan Fri, 23 May 2008 01:57:38 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49554 Stepping aside from partisan concerns I think this by-election, coming of the back of the local elections, can be considered a triumph for the public, who are becoming increasingly sophisticated and independently minded, which I would conclude is a result of increasing frustration on their behalf at the failure of the established duopoly to match widespread aspirations for improvement across the board. Negative tactical voting is simply more appealing than the promises of the two potential winners. This presents a shining opportunity for us as a third party to win the political argument if we can continue to sharpen up. Stepping aside from partisan concerns I think this by-election, coming of the back of the local elections, can be considered a triumph for the public, who are becoming increasingly sophisticated and independently minded, which I would conclude is a result of increasing frustration on their behalf at the failure of the established duopoly to match widespread aspirations for improvement across the board.

Negative tactical voting is simply more appealing than the promises of the two potential winners.

This presents a shining opportunity for us as a third party to win the political argument if we can continue to sharpen up.

]]> By: Darrell http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49553 Darrell Fri, 23 May 2008 01:45:25 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49553 A slight squeeze....not a disaster, not a glorious night either...the ship is holding steady all in all.... Tamsin Dunwoody is on BBC losing the plot totally incidentally....so a 17% swing is a result of 'rural Conservatives' turning out.... A slight squeeze….not a disaster, not a glorious night either…the ship is holding steady all in all….

Tamsin Dunwoody is on BBC losing the plot totally incidentally….so a 17% swing is a result of ‘rural Conservatives’ turning out….

]]> By: Tinter http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49552 Tinter Fri, 23 May 2008 01:38:20 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49552 So 14%? Somewhat squeezed. Only marginally better than recent polls and a slight squeeze from the general. Could have been worse but not a good results by any measure. I don't think its a secret that this campaign didn't seem to generate quite the same activist enthusiasm we normally see. Having been to help a few times some things which we normally do very well, such as posterboards, seemed to say the floating voters weren't coming to us. Also, the tories actually turned up, and their leaflets while not as good as ours were not terrible. Maybe they learnt something from Ealing and getting stuffed by us for yonks. So 14%? Somewhat squeezed. Only marginally better than recent polls and a slight squeeze from the general.

Could have been worse but not a good results by any measure. I don’t think its a secret that this campaign didn’t seem to generate quite the same activist enthusiasm we normally see. Having been to help a few times some things which we normally do very well, such as posterboards, seemed to say the floating voters weren’t coming to us.

Also, the tories actually turned up, and their leaflets while not as good as ours were not terrible. Maybe they learnt something from Ealing and getting stuffed by us for yonks.

]]> By: Matt Wardman http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49551 Matt Wardman Fri, 23 May 2008 01:31:21 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49551 Result: Tamsin Dunwoody, Labour 12679. Elisabeth Shenton, Liberal Democrat 6040. Edward Timpson, Conservative, 20539. Mike Nattress, UKIP 922. Greens, 359. Several smaller parties not included. Rejected Ballot Papers: 67. Result:

Tamsin Dunwoody, Labour 12679.
Elisabeth Shenton, Liberal Democrat 6040.
Edward Timpson, Conservative, 20539.
Mike Nattress, UKIP 922.
Greens, 359.

Several smaller parties not included.

Rejected Ballot Papers: 67.

]]> By: Oranjepan http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49550 Oranjepan Fri, 23 May 2008 01:25:53 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49550 Paul L - whose policies? Paul L – whose policies?

]]> By: Paul L http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49536 Paul L Fri, 23 May 2008 00:45:56 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49536 So if the Tories win tonight its really a big vote for our policies.... So if the Tories win tonight its really a big vote for our policies….

]]> By: Darrell http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49535 Darrell Fri, 23 May 2008 00:45:45 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49535 Indeed...i wonder how that one would play on Conservative Home... Indeed…i wonder how that one would play on Conservative Home…

]]> By: Oranjepan http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49534 Oranjepan Fri, 23 May 2008 00:43:05 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49534 Funny that in Parliament Cameron and the Conservatives trumpet the fact that Labour is stealing their policies, while out in the country the Conservatives are boasting their successes are a result of their theft of our policies. Funny that in Parliament Cameron and the Conservatives trumpet the fact that Labour is stealing their policies, while out in the country the Conservatives are boasting their successes are a result of their theft of our policies.

]]> By: Paul L http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49533 Paul L Fri, 23 May 2008 00:31:10 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49533 Yes - I wonder how many Tory supporters will be impressed with that message.... I mean, so the Tories think we have the better policies and THEY want to put across our policies as theirs so that Lib Dem supporters vote for them and they win to implement our policies - ummmmm!! Now which policies exactly would those be? Yes – I wonder how many Tory supporters will be impressed with that message….

I mean, so the Tories think we have the better policies and THEY want to put across our policies as theirs so that Lib Dem supporters vote for them and they win to implement our policies – ummmmm!!

Now which policies exactly would those be?

]]> By: Darrell http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49530 Darrell Fri, 23 May 2008 00:18:28 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49530 'In order to get Lib Dem policies you have to vote Conservative' - Eric Pickles on the BBC ‘In order to get Lib Dem policies you have to vote Conservative’ – Eric Pickles on the BBC

]]> By: Matt Wardman http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49528 Matt Wardman Fri, 23 May 2008 00:13:08 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49528 For the sake of an interesting off-topic Cheshire question : what difference will the switch from District Councils to a Unitary Council make in terms of local politics? For the sake of an interesting off-topic Cheshire question : what difference will the switch from District Councils to a Unitary Council make in terms of local politics?

]]> By: Darrell http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49509 Darrell Thu, 22 May 2008 23:20:37 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49509 I would take holding onto our vote as a minor triumph because it means we will have avoided a squeeze.... I would take holding onto our vote as a minor triumph because it means we will have avoided a squeeze….

]]> By: John http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49507 John Thu, 22 May 2008 22:42:32 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49507 From Guardian blog looks as if Tories will be in by 6000. Lib Dems similar vote to last time. From Guardian blog looks as if Tories will be in by 6000. Lib Dems similar vote to last time.

]]> By: Lloyd http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49504 Lloyd Thu, 22 May 2008 22:13:30 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49504 I wonder if Sky in it ususal way trting to announce the by-electio result firt will get it wrok again. If the say Lab has held on then yo uknow it will be a Tory victory. I wonder if Sky in it ususal way trting to announce the by-electio result firt will get it wrok again. If the say Lab has held on then yo uknow it will be a Tory victory.

]]> By: Steve http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49500 Steve Thu, 22 May 2008 21:42:34 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49500 I think we will come third. Last time (05) we had a lousy candidate. Sadly Paul Roberts has seen him go from leading the largest party in Chester to having just one Councillor. He should have made a real advance on behalf of the party and then we would have a good canvass and good support network. We are now in freefall in Cheshire and his finger prints are all over the controls. I think we will come third. Last time (05) we had a lousy candidate. Sadly Paul Roberts has seen him go from leading the largest party in Chester to having just one Councillor. He should have made a real advance on behalf of the party and then we would have a good canvass and good support network. We are now in freefall in Cheshire and his finger prints are all over the controls.

]]> By: Iain Roberts http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49499 Iain Roberts Thu, 22 May 2008 21:22:46 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49499 I will be very surprised indeed if we don't come third and get slightly squeezed. I'm guessing we'll get around 15% of the vote this time around. Politically, that won't tell us anything we don't already know: the Conservatives are finally electable, reasonably popular and started C&N in a clear second place. Us putting 16 pieces of paper through everyone's letterbox won't be enough to convince C&N voters otherwise. Of course, come the next election there are a lot of seats that aren't like that - easily enough for the Lib Dems to further increase the size of our parliamentary party. I will be very surprised indeed if we don’t come third and get slightly squeezed. I’m guessing we’ll get around 15% of the vote this time around.

Politically, that won’t tell us anything we don’t already know: the Conservatives are finally electable, reasonably popular and started C&N in a clear second place. Us putting 16 pieces of paper through everyone’s letterbox won’t be enough to convince C&N voters otherwise.

Of course, come the next election there are a lot of seats that aren’t like that – easily enough for the Lib Dems to further increase the size of our parliamentary party.

]]> By: Jim http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49497 Jim Thu, 22 May 2008 18:49:20 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49497 Come second to the Tories that is!! Come second to the Tories that is!!

]]> By: Jim http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49496 Jim Thu, 22 May 2008 18:48:49 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49496 Second-hand, it sounds like Lab/Con have picked up many of our ideas (at last?!) as per literature design,etc. I won't loose too much self (as a Lib Dem) over the result. The nearest challengers have been the Tories, and this makes them ideal receptical for the anti-government vote. I remember Labour almost lost its deposit in some seats during the 1990s when we were the main challengers during our spell of amazing gains from the Tories and it didn't stop them winning the '97 election. Still, if we come second, Labour is toast! Second-hand, it sounds like Lab/Con have picked up many of our ideas (at last?!) as per literature design,etc.

I won’t loose too much self (as a Lib Dem) over the result. The nearest challengers have been the Tories, and this makes them ideal receptical for the anti-government vote. I remember Labour almost lost its deposit in some seats during the 1990s when we were the main challengers during our spell of amazing gains from the Tories and it didn’t stop them winning the ’97 election.

Still, if we come second, Labour is toast!

]]> By: Oranjepan http://www.libdemvoice.org/crewe-and-nantwich-byelection-open-speculation-thread-2739.html#comment-49495 Oranjepan Thu, 22 May 2008 18:43:33 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=2739#comment-49495 Agreed Matt, this can be considered a poll to reflect the national position, with its regional inflection. Agreed Matt, this can be considered a poll to reflect the national position, with its regional inflection.

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