The LibDems are the masters of it.

And, though I may be wrong, I swear I can remember having LibDem Euro election material with bar charts on coming through my door in June.

Never mind the fact that the Euro elections are based on PR.

A tad dishonest if that was the case, no?

Anyway, based on the national as opposed to local issues I shouldn’t be suprised if the Lib Dems recapture some of their vote from the Greens. The recent opnion polls see a decrease in the support for “other” parties with the support swinging back to us and you with Lab’ pretty static.

That said it seems the Green party transcends the status of “other” in Norwich.

The Green Party came fourth in Norwich North at the County Elections on 4/6/09, btw…
And they sat on their hands and allowed Labour to remain in control of Norwich City Council after the utter scandal of Greyhound Opening. The Labour leader has all but admitted he doesn’t know how to run the Council. What does it take to get Greens to vote against them? (See http://www.norwichlibdems.org.uk )

I do sincerely apologise, if as you say, you are a (presumably disillusioned?) ex member. It was beneath me to accuse you of being a Tory, something I would not wish on my worst enemy.

I note, however, that my argument appears to be gaining traction? You are down to ‘(probably) unwinnable’, now!

After reading this post, compare http://www.liberalconspiracy.org/2009/06/17/those-fibdems/ . The mad chutzpah of my former colleagues (the LibDems) truly never ceases to amaze…

Terry Gilbert’s comment is one of the funniest: He points out that the Greens have yet to win a City Council seat in Norwich North. True. BUT, the most recent election was June 4th, and in the _County_ Council elections on that date, less than a fortnight ago, the Greens won two seats. How many did the LibDems win? A princely zero…
The LibDems are on the way out in Norwich North, as in Norwich South. It is 100% clear that it is the Greens who have momentum, now.

Oh hang on. The Tories don’t put out leaflets between elections.

The voters round here tell us they know it’s election time when a Tory leaflet appears. A bit like the first cuckoo of spring.

But I am not, and have never been, a supporter of the Tories.

How boring.

Just for fun – maybe you’re a Tory mole, trying to damage the party by building up false expectations and encouraging people to waste their time campaigning in a (probably) unwinnable election.

I don’t ‘believe the Lib Dems are (necessarily) going to come from third place and take this seat’; merely that if we did put the resources in, we could.

Now lets get up there, get rid of those 20k Focuses, and convince our party bosses that we are prepared to give it a go!

I am, as you will see from the Member’s Forum (assuming you are not a Tory troll, here to damp down our enthusism?), entirely realistic about waht might happen with (and without) those resources.

I have no idea where these figures come from that you’re attributing to me. But no matter.

If you want to believe that the Lib Dems are going to come from third place and take this seat, by all means believe it.

But given what’s happened in the last few by elections, it would be wise not to raise expectations too much in public.

Since STV and AV+ are both types of PR, then Clegg has only ever mentioned two voting systems. It’s disingenuous of you to list PR there, as if it’s separate from the rest.

Moreover, there has been no jumping about from Clegg. He’s made it quite clear that the party wants STV, but that if AV+ was the only option on the table, it would be a positive step.

On the objective criteria that the Tories start (from your own reckoning) on 38%, that leaves 62%. More than a quarter of those actually voted for us in a seat where we barely campaigned in 2005. The popular left wing Labour MP has just been forced out by his own side, who are in disarray, and many (most?) of his supporters will be looking for a new home – unlikely to be Cameron in my view (especially after last night’s Nazi accent gaffe, which has featured prominently on Radio Norfolk all day today.) The Greens and UKIP really are, as the Tories say, out of it.

Thing is parties like the Green Party get really angry about our bar charts, we shouldn’t. Surely we should focus on Labour and the Tories being rubbish – not their bar charts.

Realistically, does it really matter that some times our bar charts are a little cartoony and less excel-y? As long as the numbers are there, people can make up their own minds.

- Fail to reform our political system?
- Protect “flipping” front benchers like Osborne and Lansley?
- Have no new ideas about how to sort out our public finances?
- Destroy our relations with the rest of Europe?
- Launch indiscriminate public spending cuts?
- Abolish the minimum wage?

The message is: Remember, voting Tory is a negative vote.

The trouble is that regardless of the Greens, the Lib Dems are starting with less than half the Tory vote, on the basis of 2005.

Add to that the fact that the polls are currently showing the Tories up by 5 points, and the Lib Dems down by 5 points. That is why it is such an uphill struggle.

The point is that people aren’t looking for “challengers to the Tories”, but for a party that can defeat Labour. On any objective grounds, that is going to be the Tories in this seat. I grant you that it is desirable to prevent a collapse in the Lib Dem vote and/or being beaten into fourth place by the Greens, but for heaven’s sake let’s learn the lessons of the last few by-elections and refrain from encouraging wholly unrealistic expectations.

Using Photoshop and Excel the percentages are as follows:

Labour 42.45%
Conservative 35.35%
Lib Dems 15.10%
Green 4.26%
UKIP 2.84%

Hardly a conspiracy, especially considering some of the “two horse race” leaflets for the Euros, when actually it was a race between Labour, Tories, Libs, UKIP, Green and other minor parties.