National vote share projections (BBC): Con 27% (n/c), UKIP 17% (+1), Lab 16% (-7), Lib Dem 14% (-1). Although not all regions yet in, looks extremely likely that the party will get the same number of MEPs elected as it had going in to the election.
South East: Sharon Bowles re-elected and joined by Catherine Bearder. (Emma Nicholson retired at this election.)
East Midlands: Bill Newton-Dunn also set to be re-elected.
London: Sarah Ludford re-elected.
Wales: Conservatives do indeed top the poll. Lib Dems miss out on our first ever Welsh MEP by just 2%.
Scotland: awaiting figures from Western Isles, but Lib Dems set to hold seat.
Yorkshire & The Humber: Diana Wallis re-elected, but BNP also take a seat.
East of England: Andrew Duff’s re-election confirmed. Labour finished fourth.
Wales: Tories will top the poll. Lib Dems won’t gain a seat.
East of England: Andrew Duff looks set to be re-elected, finishing ahead of Labour.
Other Lib Dem firsts: topped the poll also in Cambridge and Highlands.
North West: Lib Dems top poll in Stockport by looks of it.
Scotland: based on Press Association’s figures (using around one third of councils), Lib Dems would hold seat and Tories would lose one seat. (Overall number of seats in Scotland going down by one.)
BNP update: more likely to win a seat in Yorkshire than in North West.
Yorkshire & The Humber: Labour fifth in Richmondshire. Sheffield – Labour and Tory vote down, Lib Dem vote up; Tories finish fourth.
South West: Labour finish sixth across Cornwall.
Scotland: chances of Lib Dem hold looking promising.
London: mixed news. Strong Green votes in some areas but very weak Tory vote in others (e.g. fourth in Islington). Tories also look to be fourth in Haringey with Labour vote share their worst in any Haringey election since the borough was created.
East of England: Lib Dems top the poll in Watford.
North East: Fiona Hall re-elected. Excellent result given how close the election was last time. Lib Dem vote the same as last time.
North West: Sky reports Lib Dems to win two seats. (Won two last time but lost one due to defection.)
South East: Sky reports Lib Dems to hold both our seats.
North West: Lib Dems top the poll in Burnley. Was second last time. BNP finish fifth.
Wales: ConservativeHome reporting that Labour will fall from first to third in the vote share. Lib Dem vote up in Cardiff, including topping the poll in Cardiff Central.
North West: still very unclear about BNP prospects in North West. Lots of individual counts reporting low BNP votes.
Northumberland: as with Newcastle, Lib Dems look to have overtaken Labour.
Newcastle: Lib Dems top the poll. Last time were 6% behind Labour.
North East: looks touch and go whether Fiona Hall will hold her seat.
East Mids: UKIP vote down, Lib Dem vote steady, only small advance for Greens and BNP static in early reports so far.
North West: conflicting news coming through some far – some sources are gloomy about the BNP’s performance, others are seeing less BNP support than feared.
South West: widespread expectations that Labour will lose their one seat. Report on ConservativeHome that Labour will trail in astonishing sixth position, even behind the Greens and Cornish nationalists.
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84 Comments
Looks like the greens came top in Norwich, not sure how that’ll affect the east region total vote though.
Local by election results are still coming through. It looks as though the present count of LibDem net gains in principal authority by-elections on June 4 nay have exactly compensated for the four net losses in the counties: overall net loss 0?
conservativehome reckons that Griffin will pick a seat up.
From Pb:
Cheshire West & Cheshire Percentages
Con: 34.09%, UKIP: 17.5%, Lab: 15.52%, Lib: 12.16%, Green; 7.8%, BNP: 5.92%
Newcastle result:
Lib Dem 15646
Labour 14148
Con 8678
UKIP 6876
BNP 5152
Green 4443
vote 2009.
Keep up with events in Wales via the Welsh Lib Dems on Freedom Central
http://www.freedomcentral.org.uk/2009/06/europe-elects-2009-live-results-service.html
Manchester (vote 2009):
Manchester
Lab 27502, LD 16424, Tory 11896, Green 12225, UKIP 8002, BNP 6796
IS PBC working? It hasn’t loaded for me on any of five different PCs since Thursday.
NE:
1 x lb
1 xcon
1 x ld
Fiona Hall re-elected
Lab 147338 25.0%
Con 116911 19.8%
LD 103644 17.6%
UKIP 90700 15.4%
BNP 52700 8.9%
Grn 34081 5.8%
ED 13007 2.2%
SLP 10238 1.7%
No2eu 8066 1.4%
CPA 7263 1.2%
Lib 3010 0.5%
Jury 2904 0.5%
NORTH WEST :
retaining the second seat would be remarkable, and would actually be a gain – not just because Sajj defected, but because the reduction in seats extinguished the 9th seat.
seems a little optimistic!!!
Rumour on the ether is that the Scots vote is not good….:-(
Richard – I haven’t been able to get PB to work here at home (it loads a page from April), but it was working fine in the office this afternoon.
We topped the poll in Watford last time too but it is in the East of England.
@Richard H: try www2.politicalbetting.com (note the “2″).
Broadland result approx
Con 11K; UKIP 8k; LIB DEM 5k; Lab 3k; Green 3k; BNP 1k
Good results for liberals in from Sweden: the Swedish Liberals have won 13.6% of the vote and a third seat. The Pirate Party (which opposes internet surveillance and supports filesharing) has gone from almost nothing to 7.1% and has won one seat. Turnout is also up by 6.7 points to 43.8%. The Centre Party (which sits in ALDE with the Swedish Liberal Party and the Lib Dems) retain their seat.
Niklas and Neil – Thanks!
Excellent news on Fiona Hall, who I consider one of our most impressive MEPs.
Highland Council:
British National Party 979
Christian Party “Proclaiming Christ’s Lordship” 1,485
Conservative Party 6,728
Jury Team 275
Liberal Democrats 14,550
No2EU: Yes to Democracy 361
Scottish Green Party 3,806
Scottish National Party (SNP) 14,393
Scottish Socialist Party 336
Socialist Labour Party 596
The Labour Party 5,325
UK Independence Party 3,458
Duncan Robertson 414
Rejected votes 218
Total votes cast 52,924
% Turn out 30.8%
In Kingston (London borough) Labour came fifth. Tories just topped us by less than 200 votes, with UKIP, Green and Labour a long way behind.
Delighted to report that the BNP was beaten by the Tamil Independent candidate.
I hear that Barking and Dagenham only started the count at 7pm – it took five hours here in Kingston (we started at 4pm and we are the smallest borough) so we could be in for a long night in London.
Vale of White Horse DC:
Con 13K, LD 7K, UKIP 5K, Grn 5K, Lab 2K approx
South Oxon DC:
Con 15K, UKIP 6K, LD 6K, Grn 5K, Lab 2K approx
In both cases Con up slightly, LD down slightly, UKIP down a few, Greens up a lot, Lab down a lot.
Difficult to extrapolate from these two districts (Green vote was up more in Oxon than rest of region in the Counties) but Labour’s South East seat must be looking dodgy.
We topped the poll in Cambridge last time too.
Dave Nellist (for it is he!) reckons that LD will lose a WM seat.2 Con/2 UKIP/ 2 Lab.
East of England just being announced!
Labour fourth place in East of England, Lib Dems third after UKIP. Greens a close fifth after Labour.
Con: 3, UKIP: 2, LD: 1, Lab: 1. No change.
2 so far. 7 at the end of the night?
BNP more than doubled share of vote in Barnsley – to 17%!
But down from 17% to 15% in Burnley – where Lib Dems top the poll with 23%
BNP gain a seat in Yorks and the Humber… Horrors…
BNP have taken a seat in YnH
Just curious – why are people being paid overtime to count on Sunday night/Monday morning, even though the polls have been closed for more than 72 hours?
Oh, and by the way the BNP has apparently won a seat in Yorkshire. Great.
Wales declaring shortly.
Great result in richmond borough. Lib Dems only a thousand votes off beating the tories, compared to 4,000 behind last time and 200 off winning in Kingston. Conservatives looking seriously miserable at the count…
Conservatives top the poll in Wales, UKIP take one seat from Labour. No change for Lib Dems.
One person in ten in Yorkshire and the Humber voted for the BNP.
Nick Griffin turning up to the count in a Japanese car is presumably a concession to that country’s wartime alliance with the Vaterland. Once in power, Herr Griffin would switch to an open Volkswagen, I do not doubt.
Labour 5th in Cheltenham behind UKIP 3rd and the greens 4th
The BNP’s success in Yorkshire and Humberside shows why we need transferable votes. Labour and UKIP got almost twice as many votes as the BNP, and so were very close to getting that last seat. Under transferable votes, they would probably have got the bulk of the Socialist and No2EU votes respectively. Given Green votes being redistributed, and given “excess” votes from mainstream parties being reallocated to other mainstream parties (and let’s be honest, I would have given UKIP some sort of ranking if the BNP are on the ballot) then the BNP would have missed out.
Of course, whether it would be democratic that the BNP would then miss out given that they will win hundreds of thousands of votes is another matter…
The biography of the newly elected BNP member makes truly depressing reading:
http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/the-real-bnp/Andrew-Brons.php
Greens top poll in Oxford.
Grn 9K, Lab 7K, LD 6K, Con 6K, UKIP 3K approx
From PBC comments thread:
Scotland latest: Final results of the night leave Western Isles declaration tomorrow 10am academic: it’s now SNP 2; Lab 2; Tories 1; LDs 1.
2 minutes ago from web
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/06/08/is-wales-the-result-that-could-end-browns-career/comment-page-2/#comment-1101989
BBC predicted vote share: Con 27%, UKIP 17%, Labour 16%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 9%, BNP 6%. John Curtice warns of computer failure in South East meaning they are not certain of accuracy.
@Liberal Neil: What are the Oxford Lib Dems playing at?! In the locals Labour did well in Oxford city despite dire national circumstances.
Eric Pickles alleged on the BBC earlier that the Lib Dems sit with anti-gay parties in the EU Parliament. Anyone know if this is true, and if so who?
So let’s see – we’ve tried fighting Euro elections on a more sceptical platform, we’ve tried fighting them on a pro European platform, we’ve tried ignoring Europe, we’ve tried sending a message.
Net result – we’re still fourth, still useless at fighting this election. This was an election to nail Labour, but we arsed around talking about EU crime warrants.
Our Euro team are stale beyond belief – the real talent defected to Westminster years ago and there’s bugger all party members can do to get rid of them as they use their huge allowance to buy their incumbancy among party members.
More importatly though is these elections combined with the counties show that a large number of Lib Dem MPs (including one in mid Wales) will lose their seats to the Tories if we don’t get real, understand that trying equidistance between basket case Labour and popular Tories is a route to itrrelevance and disaster – a bit like our latest useless attempt at fighting a Euro election…
I first came across Andrew Brons when he stood as the National Front candidate in the 1977 Stetchford byelection (he was beaten by Andrew McKay). He had long hair in those days, which sat rather oddly with Webster’s comment at a public meeting in that contest that left-wingers were “tripping over their hair and their pimples”.
Brons was NF “Chairman” during the 1982 Mitcham & Morden byelection, and I vividly recall watching him walk though a pub filled with NF supporters. Brons was wearing a suit and looked vaguely respectable. His acolytes were tattooed skinheads (the maximum security wing overflow). A scary encounter, I can tell you.
(The scariest bit was when one of my colleagues started muttering under his breath: “Where’s your black shirt, you Nazi?!”)
@Terry Gilbert: perhaps Fianna Fail, who have unaccountably been let into the ELDR? They are not (much) anti-gay, but they are anti-free speech and anti-abortion.
Lib Dems currently almost 100,000 votes behind Labour nationally. Where can we get more votes?
Cowley Street/Nick – sorry, but this is a disapointing result with the state labour is in. Serious thinking now needs to be done now as to the way we fight elections and get our message across. (Oh, and amateur antics from the campaigns department at the last minute doesn’t really help matters either!)
Lib Dems take one seat from UKIP in East Midlands! Con 2, Lab 1, UKIP 1, Lib Dem 1.
amusingly, some results have been input on wikipedia before the official declaration is shown on the Beeb…
FDP did well in Germany – 12 seats compared with 7 in 2004.
On BBC prediction Germany’s FDP will replace Lib Dems as largest party/national contingent to ALDE (12 seats to 11).
Greens get 25% of the vote in Norwich, topping the poll. Lib Dems come fouth after Conservatives and Labour.
Niklas – we already had a seat in the East Mids
Lib Dems top the poll in South Lakeland by about 3,000.
Sorry, keep forgetting that the BBC is going on notional seats.
So what on earth was that rubbish earlier on about Labour being beaten by Mebyon Kernow?
Herbert – I think that was just in Cornwall.
Great to see Catherine get in in the South East.
Lib Dems now only 27,185 votes behind Labour nationally.
Niklas -= please stop your ridiculous cheerleading. There’s the NW of England, the West Midlands and Scotland to come in – Labour will easily outpoll us in those areas (we may even lose our seat in Scotland).
This is not a good set of election results for the Lib Dems – particularly in the South West where the majority of our MPs are under severe threat.
I’m not cheerleading, I posted on how bad our results were in Oxford. I was merely relaying numbers from the BBC. A dumb pipe, as it were.
IMHO, we should have done better in this election. The reason we are so close to overtaking Labour is purely because they have done awfully.
The word seems to be that Nick Griffin has won the last seat in the North West. *Groans*
Niklas – fair dos…
But obviously not on the Griffin thing.
Yes, we are close to labour- but we have also gone backwards. We have kept our seats because the list system used makes seats very safe, but this has been a very poor set of results for us. I am sure peopel will be peering over local results to try and look to Westminster, but in themselves its bad.
Its clear we are not making the gains from labour we should. This is also a repeat of the lesson from the London assembly- the party does not know how to message and campaign in large PR elections.
It’s official: Nick Griffin is now an MEP, taking a seat from Labour.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but there seems to be no region where we gained vote share.
Absolutely appalling.
This is the one and only time that I’ll say this: why didn’t 1200 more people vote UKIP and keep him out?
Liberals (ALDE) up five in the European parliament.
I.e. across Europe.
Niklas, one problem was that there were several different ways to stop him.
2,449 extra votes for UKIP, 4,961 for Green, 28,550 Lib Dem.
Oh, and the Tories only stayed ahead by 26,892.
Good night. Would the last person left in Manchester and in Yorkshire please turn out the lights?
Cant wait to see how you spin this as positive for the LibDems.
Incumbent Labour government suffers massive losses; both major parties embroiled in massive expenses scandal … still the LibDems come in fourth, with a lower share of the vote.
Do you want to rethink your complacent response to the local elections?
A bedtime story: we can defeat the fascists: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGfLAtiUi1A
Griffin = Nazi tosser
Boycott- In most local election areas the results were better. Partly due to GOTV running properly, partly due to split ticket support for us locally.
I don’t think anyone has much good to say about these elections (except presumably the leadership).
The narrow wedge of votes that enabled the far right wing neo British Fascist Party BNP have now 2 MEP Seats, including Nick Griffin.
This will shock and cause a tremor in the hearts of the vast majority of Liberal minded British residents.
This BNP result will mean that a `legitimate’ British Political Party will either be sanctioned in law for its `extremist speeches’ and research campaigns etc.in Brussels or legally challenged by the State!
The BNP representation will and has already began to bode social division in our local diverse local communities.
Surely the BNP should now become the subject of a new EU Parliamentary challenge, as it forbids non white membership?
How can this be condoned by Government?
The L/D MEP Seats have increased by 1 Gain to 11 on 14% of popular vote.
Simon Hughes has said there were 1 in 15 fewer voters L/D in 2009 but only 2 in every 5 voters choose one of the 3 major Parties on 4/6.
In Wales the previous Labour heartland, the Tories beat them, for the first time since Lloyd-George was PM, in 1918.
With 1 L/D MEP to come through in Scotland 12 L/D MEPs in 2009 is respectable on the basis of 14% of the vote share,to date and reduced MEP Seats this time.
But despite a hard campaign in London it means that Jonathan Fryer has not joined Baroness Ludford, as there was an unexpected minus 3% drop in L/D votes compared to 2004.
I send my best regards to Jonathan Fryer as he clearly fought a brilliant campaign!
I think there is too much emphasis in the comments above on campaigning methods without looking at the substance behind it. The electorate is in a rage about unaccountability and corruption. The EU stands in many people’s minds for unaccountability and corruption, so by being seen as cheerleaders for it, we naturally become tainted by association. It is not the campaign, it is the message behind it.
That is why, despite the dishonesty of the Conservatives Party’s position (appearing to promise a Lisbon referendum, but not really doing so) it did slightly better than last time and much better than the Lib Dems. I still think that not offering a referendum on Lisbon when one was offered on the constitution is a poor call and is anti-democratic.
Just heard Griffin telling Matthew Amroliwala that Britain was being turned into a multicultural Tower of Babel. What an oaf.
I think Jonathan Fryer did run a brilliant campaign in London, but there are limits to what you can do when people are mostly not interested in these elections. I include in that our membership who did not come out and help in the campaign, albeit there may be some local examples where that did happen.
Fundamentally we are in a bind because we want to stay a pro-European party (and I personally agree with that), but that is the message the electorate does not want to hear.
Of course it is up to us to put the message across, but we could not seem to find a way to get the media to focus on Europe, there was really very little national debate on that. Even if we succeeded, making the EU a vote winner would have been hard work.
The problem with these elections in terms of campaigning is that it’s difficult to throw ourselves into it when for each individual what you do is just a small part in something very big. It’s much easier to have the motivation to do more when it’s a ward where you know what you do is a significant contribution to winning or losing it.
Our literature, what I saw of it, was neither good nor bad. But underneath it was cheery politicians saying “vote for us”, which was not going to be a winning message here, and won’t be much elsewhere either. We need to learn how to produce different sorts of literature.
I don’t think the message that given the various crises the world faces on the whole its best for the European countries to co-operate should be really that hard to sell. If I were doing it, I would have gone harder on scary green stuff, harder than the Green Party’s pathetic efforts. Probably with the headline “What they don’t want you to know” and an analysis of why the Murdoch/UKIP/Cameron attitude to the EU is really a rich man’s conspiracy combined with head-burying stupidity. Keep the party logo, but cut back on smiley pictures of cuddly LibDem MEPs. NO, absolutely NO, waving of “vote for us” signs. A very clear message that this is serious, not time for a joke vote.
But, anyway, I seem to spend my time posting here what the party should do and getting utterly ignored. Perhaps the people at the top know much better than me, and I’m all wrong, after all I’m just an activist who knocks on doors and talks to people and I don’t mix with those wise folks who seem to be “in” with Westminster crowd, so what should I know?
The most important comment made by one of my residents was why is n`t there more publicity between Euro-Elections to ginger up interest and voting support for the candidates?
There is virtually only the Parliament Channel and how many people have time to watch this selective dime show?
Although the advent of the Parliament Channel has opened the door on Westminster and very informative for those with time or studies on their mind
I know that MEP`s like Sarah Ludford have made a big effort to broadcast between Euro Elections and has completed a mountain of casework for residents.
I would like to ask BBC Nick Robinson to do a weekly brief on the European Parliament, as he speaks in monosyllable words that everyone understands.
If someone soon does n`t find a way of communicating positive Euro speak to reach grass roots voters between Elections,then the stay at home 65% will win again in 2014!