Comments on: How good is YouGov? http://www.libdemvoice.org/how-good-is-yougov-843.html Our place to talk - an independent website for supporters of the Liberal Democrat party in the UK. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 22:30:10 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Sid http://www.libdemvoice.org/how-good-is-yougov-843.html#comment-15803 Sid Mon, 28 May 2007 07:01:41 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/how-good-is-yougov-843.html#comment-15803 Anthony Wells offers various explanations, but to me the most plausible seems to be this one: "ICM and Populus weight using recalled past vote and YouGov weight using party identification." Carrying out a survey earlier this year, a fair number of people (though not a lot) identified themselves as Labour. However, from their comments it is quite clear that last time (or even several times) they have voted Lib Dem. So ICM and Populus would have classified these as Lib Dem (because of their remembered last vote); while You Gov would have classified them as Labour. So the weighting would be different for the various pollsters: ie You Gov would have given a lower weighting to current Lib Dem supporters. It would also explain You Gov's over-weighting for Others: lots of people identify as Green, for example, but would not vote Green (either in the past or in the future) for lack of a candidate. Anthony Wells offers various explanations, but to me the most plausible seems to be this one:

“ICM and Populus weight using recalled past vote and YouGov weight using party identification.”

Carrying out a survey earlier this year, a fair number of people (though not a lot) identified themselves as Labour. However, from their comments it is quite clear that last time (or even several times) they have voted Lib Dem.

So ICM and Populus would have classified these as Lib Dem (because of their remembered last vote); while You Gov would have classified them as Labour.

So the weighting would be different for the various pollsters: ie You Gov would have given a lower weighting to current Lib Dem supporters.

It would also explain You Gov’s over-weighting for Others: lots of people identify as Green, for example, but would not vote Green (either in the past or in the future) for lack of a candidate.

]]> By: Mark Pack http://www.libdemvoice.org/how-good-is-yougov-843.html#comment-15757 Mark Pack Sun, 27 May 2007 20:56:23 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/how-good-is-yougov-843.html#comment-15757 Anthony Wells has a good response to this piece on his website: http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/983 Anthony Wells has a good response to this piece on his website: http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/983

]]> By: MatGB http://www.libdemvoice.org/how-good-is-yougov-843.html#comment-15618 MatGB Sat, 26 May 2007 15:13:00 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/how-good-is-yougov-843.html#comment-15618 Speculation: the way they weight may be messing things up, or they may be over adjusting? They want a representative sample, so use IIRC newspaper read and votes at previous general to determine how much an individual respondent should count for. Given that they're polling online users, odds are they've got a disproportionate number of younger, male, educated geeks signed up, and then they have to weight them out, and may be doing so too heavily (we know we generally poll better within that demographic, students, etc). Could be anything, naturally, or it could just be that they do get poor responses from our supporters, but that'd be weird. I suspect their weighting is wrong. Speculation: the way they weight may be messing things up, or they may be over adjusting? They want a representative sample, so use IIRC newspaper read and votes at previous general to determine how much an individual respondent should count for.

Given that they’re polling online users, odds are they’ve got a disproportionate number of younger, male, educated geeks signed up, and then they have to weight them out, and may be doing so too heavily (we know we generally poll better within that demographic, students, etc).

Could be anything, naturally, or it could just be that they do get poor responses from our supporters, but that’d be weird. I suspect their weighting is wrong.

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