Comments on: LDVUSA: All eyes on Iowa http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html Our place to talk - an independent website for supporters of the Liberal Democrat party in the UK. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:38:46 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Hywel Morgan http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37301 Hywel Morgan Wed, 02 Jan 2008 17:30:13 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37301 Michael Bloomberg is also engaging in his own "primary" activity speaking at a largish event between Iowa and New Hampshire. He could be quite a dark horse candidate and would certainly not have any problems funds wise. As Michael Moore pointed out (when suggesting Oprah as a independent candidate) "Perot did incredibly well - imagine what a sane person could do" :-) Michael Bloomberg is also engaging in his own “primary” activity speaking at a largish event between Iowa and New Hampshire. He could be quite a dark horse candidate and would certainly not have any problems funds wise.

As Michael Moore pointed out (when suggesting Oprah as a independent candidate) “Perot did incredibly well – imagine what a sane person could do” :-)

]]> By: wit and wisdom http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37293 wit and wisdom Wed, 02 Jan 2008 15:28:51 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37293 Do American bloggers comment endlessly on British politics? I have serious doubts... Do American bloggers comment endlessly on British politics? I have serious doubts…

]]> By: Hywel Morgan http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37279 Hywel Morgan Tue, 01 Jan 2008 23:33:40 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37279 "Kucinich is asking his supporters to back Obama." If only that would not be necessary :-) “Kucinich is asking his supporters to back Obama.”

If only that would not be necessary :-)

]]> By: ken http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37278 ken Tue, 01 Jan 2008 23:26:17 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37278 kucinich has been physcotic for quite a few years kucinich has been physcotic for quite a few years

]]> By: ken http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37277 ken Tue, 01 Jan 2008 23:24:12 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37277 McCain will be next president u can bet on it! McCain will be next president u can bet on it!

]]> By: Richard Huzzey http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37273 Richard Huzzey Tue, 01 Jan 2008 23:02:17 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37273 Kucinich is asking his supporters to back Obama. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gDC1l7fRNVdFdgW4JsjBd03lUOIAD8TTC6PO0 Kucinich is asking his supporters to back Obama.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gDC1l7fRNVdFdgW4JsjBd03lUOIAD8TTC6PO0

]]> By: Richard Huzzey http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37272 Richard Huzzey Tue, 01 Jan 2008 22:35:02 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37272 1- Indeed; polls suggest Edwards gets 2nd prefs. 1- Indeed; polls suggest Edwards gets 2nd prefs.

]]> By: Duncan Borrowman http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37271 Duncan Borrowman Tue, 01 Jan 2008 22:22:48 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37271 Simon. The viability threshold in the Democratic caucuses ranges from 15 - 25% depending on the number of delegates to be elected. After the first stage non viable candidates are excluded then caucus goers move to another candidate (after a period of persuasion..) - any caucuser can move, including from viable candidates. My guess is that Hillary will lead many caucuses after the first stage, and it will all come down to where people reassign themselves. Polling suggests Hillary trails on second preferences, so she needs a good lead at the outset of the caucuses. Both Clinton and Obama will either want to win, or for Edwards to take it, they can't want the other front runner to take it. Simon. The viability threshold in the Democratic caucuses ranges from 15 – 25% depending on the number of delegates to be elected. After the first stage non viable candidates are excluded then caucus goers move to another candidate (after a period of persuasion..) – any caucuser can move, including from viable candidates.
My guess is that Hillary will lead many caucuses after the first stage, and it will all come down to where people reassign themselves. Polling suggests Hillary trails on second preferences, so she needs a good lead at the outset of the caucuses. Both Clinton and Obama will either want to win, or for Edwards to take it, they can’t want the other front runner to take it.

]]> By: David McBride http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37270 David McBride Tue, 01 Jan 2008 21:52:48 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37270 The polls are all over the place as far as the Democratic nominees are concerned in Iowa. Once today shows a clear lead for Obama, whereas one a couple of days ago had Clinton in the lead, but by a narrower margin. Edwards is consistently close though! The polls are all over the place as far as the Democratic nominees are concerned in Iowa. Once today shows a clear lead for Obama, whereas one a couple of days ago had Clinton in the lead, but by a narrower margin. Edwards is consistently close though!

]]> By: Simon Radford http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37269 Simon Radford Tue, 01 Jan 2008 21:40:42 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldvusa-all-eyes-on-iowa-1895.html#comment-37269 Of course the Iowa caucuses are even odder than any other primary in other ways: candidates with less than 10% of the vote in any of Iowa's 99 counties have their votes redistributed to those that have reached the hurdle. Last time Kucinich did a deal that his voters would go to Edwards. Which way Kucinich, Dodd, Biden and Richardson's voters go might decide the whole shouting match. Also, the vote is counted on a county by county basis. So if you win a small rural area by 10 votes, then this is as good as winning Des Moines by 1000. My prediction is an Edwards win based on these two factors. His support (amongst older people) is also more reliable than Obama's. He is also closing in New Hampshire and with the momentum from Iowa, he isn't out of the race yet. Of course the Iowa caucuses are even odder than any other primary in other ways: candidates with less than 10% of the vote in any of Iowa’s 99 counties have their votes redistributed to those that have reached the hurdle. Last time Kucinich did a deal that his voters would go to Edwards. Which way Kucinich, Dodd, Biden and Richardson’s voters go might decide the whole shouting match.

Also, the vote is counted on a county by county basis. So if you win a small rural area by 10 votes, then this is as good as winning Des Moines by 1000.

My prediction is an Edwards win based on these two factors. His support (amongst older people) is also more reliable than Obama’s. He is also closing in New Hampshire and with the momentum from Iowa, he isn’t out of the race yet.

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