Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have predicted that the Liberal Democrats could gain 100 seats in the County Council election, twice as many as the Tories are predicted to gain. They also say that Labour will lose 50 seats and UKIP 100.
From the Sunday Times (£):
Thrasher and Rallings predict that Ukip’s vote will collapse from 22% to 10% — and that the Tory vote will rise five points to 31%.
Rallings said: “The Tories will benefit from Ukip’s decline, but could themselves lose seats to the Lib Dems.
“The Lib Dems will be looking to take seats from both Tories and Labour as they claw their way back from the humiliation of the 2015 general election. In local elections they benefit from an ability to mobilise support on the ground.”
The last time those seats were fought, we lost 124, so even that sort of spectacular rise wouldn’t take us back to where we are in 2009.
This is only in relation to England. Every Council seat in Scotland and Wales is up for grabs as well and that will have an effect on the net totals. The Tories are looking to do well in Scotland as Labour crash and burn. I would be looking for good news stories in places like Edinburgh. In one ward in Edinburgh, Lib Dem support is so strong that they have taken the decision to put up a second candidate. Kevin Lang will now have Louise Young, who happens to be his sister, as his running mate in Almond ward. Scottish elections are held using the Single Transferable Vote.
These predictions should motivate us all to get out and help as much as we can between now and the elections on May 4th. Is anyone planning Star Wars themed Good Mornings, by the way? I know, you can’t tell me cos you would have to kill me, but it would be quite a cool thing to do.
* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings