1st Eastleigh poll puts Con + LDs within margin of error: C34 LD31 Lab 19 UKIP 13 (Ashcroft poll)
— Mark Pack (@markpack) February 7, 2013
That 3 point gap is within the margin of error on the poll, and so it is, as they say in the US about such results, a statistical dead-heat.
What is clear is that this is a contest between Liberal Democrats and Conservatives. Nigel Farage was right it would seem to back out of fighting the seat – and Labour too are clearly out of it in Eastleigh.
The Labour vote share is particularly interesting as we’ll see how well the party can do at squeezing a clearly third-place Labour in a Parliamentary by-election. The pre-2010 record is of course very good and early signs about the Labour campaign are promising:
Labour Cannot Find a Candidate for Eastleigh Selection Process Open to All Members order-order.com/2013/02/07/lab…
— Keith House (@CllrKeithHouse) February 7, 2013
The Liberal Democrat candidate is being selected at the weekend – and my money is on it being none of the people Guido has tipped
That doesn’t mean you have to wait to help however: