Comments on: NEW POLL: What’s the main reason you think the Tory poll lead has all but evaporated? http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html Our place to talk - an independent website for supporters of the Liberal Democrat party in the UK. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:36:11 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: fdp100 http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-109625 fdp100 Sun, 07 Mar 2010 20:11:03 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-109625 I really like Ed's comment blaming the start of the Tory decline on the Sun. I'd love to see their headline after the election - "Its the Sun wot lost it for the Tories" I really like Ed’s comment blaming the start of the Tory decline on the Sun. I’d love to see their headline after the election – “Its the Sun wot lost it for the Tories”

]]> By: Sesenco http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108913 Sesenco Mon, 01 Mar 2010 23:00:08 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108913 Even if the polls swing back in the Tories' favour in the next few days, what this last weekend has shown is that the Tory lead is vulnerable and much of their apparent support soft, too soft, perhaps, to oust hard-working Lib Dem MPs. I have always been dubious of the school of thought that says fighting Tory seats is futile at the coming General Election, our only gains will be from Labour. On the contrary, I think we have every reason to get stuck into the Eastbournes and the Guildfords, the American (sorry, Ashcroft) money might not be as invincible as we had thought. Even if the polls swing back in the Tories’ favour in the next few days, what this last weekend has shown is that the Tory lead is vulnerable and much of their apparent support soft, too soft, perhaps, to oust hard-working Lib Dem MPs.

I have always been dubious of the school of thought that says fighting Tory seats is futile at the coming General Election, our only gains will be from Labour. On the contrary, I think we have every reason to get stuck into the Eastbournes and the Guildfords, the American (sorry, Ashcroft) money might not be as invincible as we had thought.

]]> By: Anthony Aloysius St http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108911 Anthony Aloysius St Mon, 01 Mar 2010 22:25:21 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108911 Although tomorrow's YouGov tracker is showing a lead of 7, up from yesterday's 2, there is also a new ComRes poll for the Independent showing a lead of only 5 (37-32). That is down from 8 in their last poll a week and a half ago, and more significantly is the lowest Tory lead in a ComRes poll since December 2008. Together with MORI's 5-point lead at the end of last week I think this does suggest it's not just YouGov. Although tomorrow’s YouGov tracker is showing a lead of 7, up from yesterday’s 2, there is also a new ComRes poll for the Independent showing a lead of only 5 (37-32). That is down from 8 in their last poll a week and a half ago, and more significantly is the lowest Tory lead in a ComRes poll since December 2008.

Together with MORI’s 5-point lead at the end of last week I think this does suggest it’s not just YouGov.

]]> By: Anthony Aloysius St http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108854 Anthony Aloysius St Mon, 01 Mar 2010 14:39:33 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108854 <I>"Is there actually a Labour revival – various threads on PB.com about the adjustment factors used by various polling companies (which I don’t pretend understand the minutae of). However YouGov have shown very similar shares in their raw data, but a closing lead when the figures come out of the adjustment number cruncher."</I> There's certainly been movement over the last couple of months, even if YouGov is completely ignored. The Tory lead over Labour according to the other pollsters has decreased by 3.5 points between December and February (that figure remains the same whether or not Angus Reid is included). On the other hand, the average lead so far this month according to the other pollsters is still 9.25 (8.3 without Angus Reid). So the belief that the lead has shrunk to 5-6 points (or even lower) does rest almost entirely on the recent YouGov polls. It will be interesting to see whether it's confirmed by other pollsters over the next few days. “Is there actually a Labour revival – various threads on PB.com about the adjustment factors used by various polling companies (which I don’t pretend understand the minutae of). However YouGov have shown very similar shares in their raw data, but a closing lead when the figures come out of the adjustment number cruncher.”

There’s certainly been movement over the last couple of months, even if YouGov is completely ignored. The Tory lead over Labour according to the other pollsters has decreased by 3.5 points between December and February (that figure remains the same whether or not Angus Reid is included).

On the other hand, the average lead so far this month according to the other pollsters is still 9.25 (8.3 without Angus Reid). So the belief that the lead has shrunk to 5-6 points (or even lower) does rest almost entirely on the recent YouGov polls. It will be interesting to see whether it’s confirmed by other pollsters over the next few days.

]]> By: DT http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108853 DT Mon, 01 Mar 2010 14:19:41 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108853 Anthony Aloysius St, I voted for Clegg because I liked his vision for the Liberal Democrats and for Britain, not because I thought he was a Cameron clone. I still like his vision for the Liberal Democrats and for Britain, and I still don't think he's a Cameron clone. Anthony Aloysius St, I voted for Clegg because I liked his vision for the Liberal Democrats and for Britain, not because I thought he was a Cameron clone. I still like his vision for the Liberal Democrats and for Britain, and I still don’t think he’s a Cameron clone.

]]> By: Hywel http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108845 Hywel Mon, 01 Mar 2010 13:14:44 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108845 Is there actually a Labour revival - various threads on PB.com about the adjustment factors used by various polling companies (which I don't pretend understand the minutae of). However YouGov have shown very similar shares in their raw data, but a closing lead when the figures come out of the adjustment number cruncher. Is there actually a Labour revival – various threads on PB.com about the adjustment factors used by various polling companies (which I don’t pretend understand the minutae of). However YouGov have shown very similar shares in their raw data, but a closing lead when the figures come out of the adjustment number cruncher.

]]> By: Alix http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108843 Alix Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:56:58 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108843 "Tabman, what we’re being asked to explain is a Labour poll resurgence, at the expense of both their opponents I fear." Is it at the <i>expense</i> of both opponents? Would be interesting to see proof of that one. My impression is that we're just not moving in the polls (which is a problem in itself, of course). And I don't think a thesis that Clegg is bad for the party's poll rating is supported by the trend. We dipped to 11 before Clegg took over. The 12s, 13s, 14s continued for a while and then died out. The last 15 I can find was in May last year. Now we're in the 16-20 range. Of course, one can't attribute this trend to Clegg specifically. Nor can one prove that without him the polls would be higher. The trend is what it is. “Tabman, what we’re being asked to explain is a Labour poll resurgence, at the expense of both their opponents I fear.”

Is it at the expense of both opponents? Would be interesting to see proof of that one. My impression is that we’re just not moving in the polls (which is a problem in itself, of course).

And I don’t think a thesis that Clegg is bad for the party’s poll rating is supported by the trend. We dipped to 11 before Clegg took over. The 12s, 13s, 14s continued for a while and then died out. The last 15 I can find was in May last year. Now we’re in the 16-20 range. Of course, one can’t attribute this trend to Clegg specifically. Nor can one prove that without him the polls would be higher. The trend is what it is.

]]> By: David Allen http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108840 David Allen Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:38:51 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108840 I agree with most of the above posts, but would just add one further point. The particular -ism that is taking this planet by intellectual storm these days is denialism. Faced with the choice between "pain, now, urgently" and "wait on a bit, maybe those cuts will never have to happen", the denialist's choice is clear! Of course it so happens that economists may agree for altogether more respectable reasons, but, economists do not vote en masse, denialists do! I agree with most of the above posts, but would just add one further point. The particular -ism that is taking this planet by intellectual storm these days is denialism. Faced with the choice between “pain, now, urgently” and “wait on a bit, maybe those cuts will never have to happen”, the denialist’s choice is clear!

Of course it so happens that economists may agree for altogether more respectable reasons, but, economists do not vote en masse, denialists do!

]]> By: Matthew Huntbach http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108836 Matthew Huntbach Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:11:25 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108836 When you look at the sort of things the Tories are saying, even when they mean well it's clear they are just so out of touch with real life. The more they say, the more chance something from them hits you as someone who knows about the thing they have put forward some wizard scheme for, and you think "Huh, these people don't have a clue". When you look at the sort of things the Tories are saying, even when they mean well it’s clear they are just so out of touch with real life. The more they say, the more chance something from them hits you as someone who knows about the thing they have put forward some wizard scheme for, and you think “Huh, these people don’t have a clue”.

]]> By: Painfully Liberal http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108828 Painfully Liberal Mon, 01 Mar 2010 11:45:19 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108828 From a slightly prosaic point of view, I notice that the Conservative decline in the polls has coincided twith the start of the "long campaign" expense limits. Could there be an extent to which the Conservative campaign is being affected by no longer being able to throw money at seats in quite the same way? From a slightly prosaic point of view, I notice that the Conservative decline in the polls has coincided twith the start of the “long campaign” expense limits. Could there be an extent to which the Conservative campaign is being affected by no longer being able to throw money at seats in quite the same way?

]]> By: Simon R http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108809 Simon R Mon, 01 Mar 2010 07:16:26 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108809 To make a change, you have to feel safe in making it. When the economy was awful, there was a feeling that any change was for the better; when economic times are better after a long run of one-party government (see 1997), people feel like it wasn't possible for the dark days to return with a change in the faces at the top. When economic times are in flux- like now- oppositions run the risk of appearing inexperienced bordering on the trite. Too much to lose, don't switch horses in mid-stream etc. In times of ambiguity, maybe better the devil you know? To make a change, you have to feel safe in making it. When the economy was awful, there was a feeling that any change was for the better; when economic times are better after a long run of one-party government (see 1997), people feel like it wasn’t possible for the dark days to return with a change in the faces at the top. When economic times are in flux- like now- oppositions run the risk of appearing inexperienced bordering on the trite. Too much to lose, don’t switch horses in mid-stream etc. In times of ambiguity, maybe better the devil you know?

]]> By: Anthony Aloysius St http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108798 Anthony Aloysius St Mon, 01 Mar 2010 00:31:58 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108798 Surely the question for the Lib Dems has to be this. Given Cameron's lacklustre achievement, was it really so wise to put a Cameron-clone in charge of the party? Is this why the Lib Dems are languishing in the mid-teens in the middle of what is essentially a contest of unpopularity between the other two parties? Surely the question for the Lib Dems has to be this. Given Cameron’s lacklustre achievement, was it really so wise to put a Cameron-clone in charge of the party? Is this why the Lib Dems are languishing in the mid-teens in the middle of what is essentially a contest of unpopularity between the other two parties?

]]> By: David Allen http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108790 David Allen Sun, 28 Feb 2010 23:31:30 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108790 Tabman, what we're being asked to explain is a Labour poll resurgence, at the expense of both their opponents I fear. I hasten to add that I personally think Brown is a disaster, and I wouldn't myself think the better of him for his behaviour! However, if you don't like my explanation for what is happening in the polls, perhaps you can try giving your own? Tabman, what we’re being asked to explain is a Labour poll resurgence, at the expense of both their opponents I fear. I hasten to add that I personally think Brown is a disaster, and I wouldn’t myself think the better of him for his behaviour! However, if you don’t like my explanation for what is happening in the polls, perhaps you can try giving your own?

]]> By: Tabman http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108783 Tabman Sun, 28 Feb 2010 22:53:08 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108783 "Can it be that Brown actually gains from this story, because it shows that at least he gets upset when things go wrong, and cares passionately about what he is doing? Whereas Cameron and <b>Clegg</b> exude self-satisfaction, self-assurance and a kind of well-fed complacency, which is totally at odds with what is happening to real people out there?" Any opportunity :roll: “Can it be that Brown actually gains from this story, because it shows that at least he gets upset when things go wrong, and cares passionately about what he is doing? Whereas Cameron and Clegg exude self-satisfaction, self-assurance and a kind of well-fed complacency, which is totally at odds with what is happening to real people out there?”

Any opportunity :roll:

]]> By: David Allen http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108781 David Allen Sun, 28 Feb 2010 22:47:01 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108781 There's always a swing back to the governing party as an election approaches. Grumbling subsides, and "better the devil you know" gains ground. The puzzle this time is how that can possibly still have happened in the teeth of the Brown Bully story. Can it be that Brown actually gains from this story, because it shows that at least he gets upset when things go wrong, and cares passionately about what he is doing? Whereas Cameron and Clegg exude self-satisfaction, self-assurance and a kind of well-fed complacency, which is totally at odds with what is happening to real people out there? There’s always a swing back to the governing party as an election approaches. Grumbling subsides, and “better the devil you know” gains ground. The puzzle this time is how that can possibly still have happened in the teeth of the Brown Bully story.

Can it be that Brown actually gains from this story, because it shows that at least he gets upset when things go wrong, and cares passionately about what he is doing? Whereas Cameron and Clegg exude self-satisfaction, self-assurance and a kind of well-fed complacency, which is totally at odds with what is happening to real people out there?

]]> By: David http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108772 David Sun, 28 Feb 2010 20:20:51 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108772 The Tory vote is still around 39 in most polls, the one out today is wrong for a few reasons. They have the London vote as 39 Labour 19 Tory. No way can that be correct. I wonder if it is the wrong way around? They have also changed the way they are working out the Labour vote, which is adding 3% to the Labour vote, and how can they have the Lib/Dem vote down to 16%. The question on here should be WHY is the Lib/Dem % so low? The talk is that those that left Labour over the Iraq war to vote Lib/Dem in the last election, are now returning to the Labour party. The Tory vote is still around 39 in most polls, the one out today is wrong for a few reasons. They have the London vote as 39 Labour 19 Tory. No way can that be correct. I wonder if it is the wrong way around?
They have also changed the way they are working out the Labour vote, which is adding 3% to the Labour vote, and how can they have the Lib/Dem vote down to 16%.

The question on here should be WHY is the Lib/Dem % so low?

The talk is that those that left Labour over the Iraq war to vote Lib/Dem in the last election, are now returning to the Labour party.

]]> By: rantersparadise http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108770 rantersparadise Sun, 28 Feb 2010 20:03:20 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108770 I have to agree with what the paper said Tories are back to being Tories again. Ew. No thanks. I prefer Labour anyday, at least they are nicer people. I don't think the Libs even want to win to be fair. I have to agree with what the paper said Tories are back to being Tories again. Ew. No thanks. I prefer Labour anyday, at least they are nicer people.

I don’t think the Libs even want to win to be fair.

]]> By: Robert C http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108768 Robert C Sun, 28 Feb 2010 19:38:48 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108768 I think it is because they are putting forward free market solutions to problems cause by too much free market. Also there is a huge "other" vote out there that feels disenfranchised on right wing knee-jerk issues like Europe and immigration. I think it is because they are putting forward free market solutions to problems cause by too much free market. Also there is a huge “other” vote out there that feels disenfranchised on right wing knee-jerk issues like Europe and immigration.

]]> By: Philip Young http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108762 Philip Young Sun, 28 Feb 2010 17:33:13 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108762 A few days ago, a poll suggested the Tory lead was 5 per cent, now its 2 per cent, ok, one poll can be dismissed, but there does seem to be a trend here - Stephen is right, Labour are climbing back into the game and the Tories have stumbled, they should be soaring past 40 per cent bench-mark. Lib Dems on 17, no change, suggests at face value that Labour are getting back the drifters that went to Cameron. If its chiefly about air-time and column inches that produces these mood-swings, Brown has started to put himself across a bit more lately. A few days ago, a poll suggested the Tory lead was 5 per cent, now its 2 per cent, ok, one poll can be dismissed, but there does seem to be a trend here – Stephen is right, Labour are climbing back into the game and the Tories have stumbled, they should be soaring past 40 per cent bench-mark. Lib Dems on 17, no change, suggests at face value that Labour are getting back the drifters that went to Cameron. If its chiefly about air-time and column inches that produces these mood-swings, Brown has started to put himself across a bit more lately.

]]> By: Anthony Aloysius St http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-whats-the-main-reason-you-think-the-tory-poll-lead-has-all-but-evaporated-18126.html#comment-108759 Anthony Aloysius St Sun, 28 Feb 2010 17:10:51 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18126#comment-108759 Cheltenham Robin But I hardly think that can explain it. After all, Cameron has been boring for a lot longer than the last few months! Cheltenham Robin

But I hardly think that can explain it. After all, Cameron has been boring for a lot longer than the last few months!

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