I don’t really feel the need to disagree in any active sense. Sure I have my own views on what is going on but everyone is entitled to their view.

The only slight problem with using that definition of bounce is that it is completely subjective. Presumably I could define the “Clegg bounce” if I felt that 60% of Lib Dem support in the ballot box was coming for the “wrong” reasons (e.g. just not liking the other two, rather than actively liking Lib Dem policies). Indeed, I suspect this “Clegg bounce” might be rather large.

Where possible I think it is nice to define terms in more objective ways (e.g. to define a bounce in terms of a relatively sudden increase in support).

Large sections of the electorate seem to be shopping around & going for candidates without a firm, principled reason for doing so. They are known as “prospectors” to some

As in New Labour voters who now say that they support Cameron, but may always go elsewhere.

You will doubtless wish to wholly disagree with my assessment of Cameron & his level of support…

it is interesting you refer to a Cameron “bounce”. What period did you have in mind for this? I suppose the position shifted a lot last year but that was more down to ineptness by Brown (cranking up the election machinery and then stalling) and maybe a speech by Osbourne as much as Cameron. The rest of the time it seems to have been more of a “Cameron ramp” which (as an innately cautious soul) I have to say I feel much happier about than a bounce (where gravity has a horrible habit of cutting in eventually).

You do have a point that Brown won’t be able to exploit these difficulties in the way Obama & to a lesser extent McCain have, because he has been an integral part of the government for 11 years. However, while he himself may not be very strong, he has also indicated that Cameron’s “strength” is illusory.

I do not think the Cameroons are at all complcent, & nor was Blair prior to 1997.

As I said, the Labour party’s future should make for interesting viewing if they go into opposition. Whether it be by a wide or a narrow margin, the possibilities are endless.

However, it seems that any remotely likely person will be stamped with New Labour’s record: it took 8 years to get Cameron, & Labour might find themselves in a similar place.

As much as I dislike Blair/Brown, I hope they don’t suffer a defeat as crushing as Major’s, as we can see how corrupting easy victories are.

I have a feeling that this Brown bounce is just because the media need a little bit of a story. The “Cameron strong, Brown weak” line was just getting a bit boring. I predict that there will be a bit of a bounce this week but that in a month or two it will have settled down to business as usual. Indeed, unless Brown does something extremely substantive I imagine Labour will start to drift down to the very low 20s.

I suppose there is a chance that they will succeed in pinning last week on speculators short selling, although as far as I can tell that is a bit of a Brownie. They really deserved to get picked up on their past boasts about having “light touch regulation” too, and that could turn on them nastily.

I am with Laurence on the poll question. It all very much depends by what you mean as effective (and what set of policies you are trying to plug – or is this merely in terms of numbers of red bums on green seats?).

In terms of basic competence (which is where they seem to be most horribly lacking at the moment) I would have thought that Alan Johnson would be top choice for them. The rest all seem as slimy as a bucket of eels and it is hard to see much good coming of any of them.

It should be relatively easy to move against Brown from a relatively social democratic & civil libertarian policy. Presumably the Liberal Democrats would respond to this with a further emphasis on economic liberalism: however, they could be arrested by someone who promised to raise the threshold as an answer to the tax credit fiasco.

Also, anyone who promised to build more council houses would get support. Generally, a soft leftist who takes a position against social authoritarianism would be best. I don’t know who such a person would be, as I’m not so familiar with the workings of the Labour party, & don’t feel much need to inform myself

I’d be interested to see them behaving in opposition. Quite possibly they could come back. Already Brown is staging something of a resurgence, & could do even more if he moved against the City, which has few defenders left amongst the public

Under this scenario, those potential Labour voters & even some who voted LD in 2005 would flock back for the most part. It would be the LDs’ job to get some of these people who claimed to be about to vote Conservative & contributed to that 52% poll for Camoron on board. That shouldn’t be too hard, as he is now showing his true nature more brazenly than ever.

I’m surprised that anyone believes they _can’t_ go on like this – I think they can and they will.

It won’t do them much good though, even if continuing financial tumoil strengthens Brown’s hand and quietens the mutineers.

I don’t mind who they have as leader, because it won’t change my vote.

Long term leader – David Miliband
Caretaker leader – Could be Straw, Johnson, or my favourite Baroness Ashton

So how should I vote? I think caretaker leader is going to be the more likely scenario, so I’d have to opt for Baroness Ashton. But she’s not even on the list. What should I do?