Comments on: Opinion: Capitalising on Labour’s woes, defending against a rising blue tide

By: paul barker

paul barker — Fri, 08 May 2009 16:53:15 +0000

just a historical note on liberal/libdem losses, the last time we lost half our MPs atone go was 1970. In fact the last election we had any loss was in 1992, about one in ten. Just remember that many of the commentators talking about tory landslides now thought that 1997 would be “a damn close run thing”.

By: Niklas Smith

Niklas Smith — Thu, 07 May 2009 16:23:05 +0000

Found a relevant link to an earlier LDV article on this topic: http://www.libdemvoice.org/helpful-advice-from-the-tories-about-how-to-beat-them-at-the-next-election-10987.html

Mr Taylor argues that big poll leads will be a disadvantage for the Conservatives in Lib Dem marginals that we can benefit from – if the government’s changing anyway why not keep “my cuddly local Lib Dem MP”, as Jonathan Isaby wrote on ConHome. A sense of inevitable Tory victory also weakens their argument that voting for a Lib Dem risks keeping Gordon Brown in power.

By: Cllr Patrick Smith

Cllr Patrick Smith — Thu, 07 May 2009 15:31:05 +0000

In response to the core question-How can the Liberal Democrats hold existing Seats in the face of the Tories and make the most of the ills of this listless Labour Government?

1.All L/D PPC`s and MP`s should read and digest the practical formula for winning against the incumbent Tories in Yeovil and Somerset.Paddy Ashdown`s recipe as recollected in his prized autobiography `A Fortunate Life’,for winning against the Tories and Labour, is a tour de force and there are many master class lessons, that still apply and transferable from 1983 to 2009 and 2010.

2.L/D MP`s and PPC`s are the politicians that stand for community politics and are not clones of `Big Government’,Trade Union Bosses or Siamese twins of the greedy City Bankers kind that have caused the slowdown and `Recession’.

3.The L/D `s have singled out and performed best on all important issues of conscience, including the principled stands on the Economy and what has to be done (Vince Cable) ,ID Cards and National d/b and child criminal records (Chris Huhne) and Educational and Equity in Funding in Schools (David Laws) Climate Change and Global Warming and `No Third London Airport (Simon Hughes and all London L/D`s and Cllrs)

4.At the last Harrogate Conference Howard Dean one of Barrack Obama`s key election platform advisers told us to value equally.All supporters and offers of support were all uniquely valuable and that candidates should ensure that everyone was given a job and made to feel part of the team and bigger Liberal family.This message is so important to get out to galvanise the maximum support for door knocking,telephone canvassing Focus Delivery etc.

5.Nick Clegg has demonstrated in Parliament, that he has caught the national mood with his passionate enthusiasm,in holding this tired and rudderless Government, to democratic
account,on the Economy,the Gurkha.MP`s Expenses and Sri Lanka and so on.

I predict a real battle for the hearts and minds of voters in the London Euro Elections on June 4th and look for 3 new L/D MEP`s for the Capital.

A high turnout of over 40% is important in our plural PR electoral system on June 4th.

I believe that the L/D stock and character is strong and that it will be Labour and Tories,BNP and Greens,whom suffer the arrows of voter apathy and protest at their hollow message and vacuous promises that residents will call time on.

By: David Heigham

David Heigham — Thu, 07 May 2009 15:28:18 +0000

The themes that can catch on nationally are becoming clear. LibDems are:

- “The Party of the Underdog” :Stephen Tall’s inspiration,
- “The Party of Freedom” : Labour don’t know where this ground is; and Cameron conceded it when he did not back David Davis,
- “The Party that knows What Needs to be Done” : ground largely captured by Vince.

I doubt if anyone central can say how to balance these appeals in a particular constituency; but together they look potentially powerful in a lot of places.

By: Simon

Simon — Thu, 07 May 2009 15:19:07 +0000

I can think of quite a few Lib Dem seats where there are still plenty of Labour votes to be squeezed and even 10% if squeezed well could make the difference.

By: ceedee

ceedee — Thu, 07 May 2009 14:31:01 +0000

Sounds obvious, but I’d suggest the first thing is to get to know the opposition.
Tim Montgomerie detailed a ConservativeHome survey of the 148 expected new Tory MPs in The Times: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6195108.ece

And there’s a scan of a helpful graphic here: http://ceedee.co.uk/what-will-the-next-tory-government-look-like

It suggests to me that LibDems need to give Tory candidates plenty of rope…

By: tykejohnno

tykejohnno — Thu, 07 May 2009 14:29:12 +0000

Alix mortimer,ok,lie is a to stronger word to use,what about fool the British public,you say vote for us to keep the tories honest on the economy,you use the word ‘honest’your party was’nt to honest on the lisbon treaty were you,for god sake who will keep the lib dems honest ?

By: Millennium

Millennium — Thu, 07 May 2009 14:20:15 +0000

“Which part of “Which has the merit of basically being the truth!” did you not understand, tykejohnno?”

I was about to type the exact same thing.

So back to the usual Conservatory smears. Yawn. This how you’re planning on carrying on in power?

By: Alix Mortimer

Alix Mortimer — Thu, 07 May 2009 14:11:26 +0000

“,so your saying ,the lib dems should lie to the british public”

Which part of “Which has the merit of basically being the truth!” did you not understand, tykejohnno?

By: simonsez

simonsez — Thu, 07 May 2009 14:09:57 +0000

Andrew – should this debate not be in the private members only forum???

By: tykejohnno

tykejohnno — Thu, 07 May 2009 13:19:13 +0000

alex mortimer,so your saying ,the lib dems should lie to the british public,well nothing new they then.The euro’s are coming up and I hope the british people remember what the lib dems did on the lisbon treaty vote or the non vote.

By: Hugh

Hugh — Thu, 07 May 2009 12:00:09 +0000

The next parliament’s prospects for the LDs are not solely determined by the number of seats won, but also the distribution of the other seats. Losing 15 seats but facing 285 Tory and 285 Labour MPs is surely more promising than having 70 MPs but facing 350 Tories and another 5 years of irrelevance, and the behaviour of LD sympathisers in Con-Lab marginals is a key factor in determining which outcome occurs. What is being done to address this?

By: Alix Mortimer

Alix Mortimer — Thu, 07 May 2009 11:56:24 +0000

A direct counter challenge to the point Steve makes would be to point out that the Tories are so far ahead in the polls that an overall victory is very likely even if they do vote for us. Wouldn’t necessarily work in marginals, but I think a lot of people are quite hazy about the connect between their own ballot paper and the national government.

A more positive version of this negative point might be: vote for us because we’ll keep the Tories honest on the economy, taxation and civil liberties. Treat it as if they’re already in power and need effective opposition which Labour can no longer provide.

(Which has the merit of basically being the truth!)

By: Steve Travis

Steve Travis — Thu, 07 May 2009 11:42:44 +0000

Niklas – agree, and we should play up the Vince factor – “we were right before anyone else was”.

Another danger not discussed here is the Tory jibe of “a vote for the Lib Dems lets Labour in”. They will be playing this for all its worth – only a Tory MP will guarantee you a change, the Lib Dems might let Gordon back in etc. We need to prepare our defence against this.

By: Niklas Smith

Niklas Smith — Thu, 07 May 2009 11:36:15 +0000

I think both of these suggestions are sensible, especially the first one – people will get fed up with this doom and gloom.

Another point we could make is that “strong government” is not necessarily an unalloyed good. Look at what 12 years of strong Labour government has brought: war in Iraq, ID-cards, assaults on civil liberties, huge increases in public spending (partly on borrowed money) for little result. We should be making the case for a strong third party to keep the Conservatives from doing anything stupid (because, let’s face it, they will be the next government).