Politicalbetting.com: Watch Paddick
Written by Richard Huzzey on 22nd March 2008 – 9:10 amTop punter Mike Smithson is tipping readers of his politicalbetting.com site to watch Brian Paddick in the London mayoral election. With the collapse of support for Ken Livingstone, he now thinks Brian is the only man who can save London from a Boris Johnson mayoralty. You can read Mike’s comments here. The Nick Cohen comments Mike refers to are on his site.
Posted in London Mayor
22nd March 2008 at 10:31 am
So this would be Lib Dem member and former general election candidate Mike Smithson saying he quite likes a Lib Dem candidate? Meanwhile The Guardian is arguing for dumping Paddick and replacing him with Vince Cable. Paddick has struggled to get into double figures in the polls; the idea that he will win is ludicrous.
22nd March 2008 at 11:31 am
One big problem witht the mayor race is the electoral system.
If no one gets 50% then only the top two go forward for the second round.
If say Boris got 40% and Ken & Brian got 25% each then just a couple of votes will decide the top two.
Anti Tory transfers could easily propell the sencond person into the top job.
Why couldn’t they go for a proper STV count - oh yes because the Tories & LAbour wanted to stack the system against the other parties!
22nd March 2008 at 11:59 am
“So this would be Lib Dem member and former general election candidate Mike Smithson saying he quite likes a Lib Dem candidate?”
Anyone, of any allegiance, who reads pb.com knows that Mike tends to err, if at all, away from the LDs. He recently wrote two pieces here - one in which he explained why he typically doesn’t gamble on LD successes, and another doubting that the LDs will hold the balance of power at the next election.
He openly predicted the successive downfalls of Kennedy and Ming and, if anything, is accused by some of overstressing Cameron’s (and Boris’s) electoral chances.
22nd March 2008 at 5:41 pm
Wishful thinking. The line which contradicts your position is:
“If he came second on the first count, the argument goes, he would pick up the lion’s share of Ken’s second preferences. Even then I don’t think that Paddick can overhaul Johnson”.
22nd March 2008 at 11:55 pm
Draft Vince?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/mar/22/religion.usa
23rd March 2008 at 12:43 am
Real votes in real ballot boxes ahould count for something. Since last September, total votes received by the major parties at all London council by-elections (16 by-elections in 15 different boroughs) have been:
Liberal Democrat 14,267 (36.3 per cent)
Conservative 11,092 (28.2 per cent)
Labour 9,912 (25.2 per cent).
The Greens had 1,464 (3.7 per cent) and after them only the BNP managed more than a thousand in total - 1,018.
Now from those figures who looks most likely to beat Livingstone. Oh! It isn’t Boris.
23rd March 2008 at 1:02 am
Sorry, typo there. Should have been 16 by-elections in 14 different boroughs. Both Brent and Harrow had two by-elections since last September.