Comments on: Pollwatch – State of the Parties: Lib Dems 18%, Labour 31%, Tories 38% (Mar. 2010 so far) http://www.libdemvoice.org/pollwatch-state-of-the-parties-lib-dems-18-labour-31-tories-38-mar-2010-so-far-18431.html Our place to talk - an independent website for supporters of the Liberal Democrat party in the UK. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 08:55:56 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Stephen Tall http://www.libdemvoice.org/pollwatch-state-of-the-parties-lib-dems-18-labour-31-tories-38-mar-2010-so-far-18431.html#comment-111506 Stephen Tall Mon, 22 Mar 2010 09:43:11 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18431#comment-111506 @ paul barker - 14th chosen as cut-off point only because I was covering the first fortnight's polls. @ Ed Randall - 'Others' are indeed an unknown factor. My guess is they'll attract a few more votes this time, but will be so thinly spread as to make little difference - tho there will be individual constituencies where that's not the case. @ paul barker – 14th chosen as cut-off point only because I was covering the first fortnight’s polls.

@ Ed Randall – ‘Others’ are indeed an unknown factor. My guess is they’ll attract a few more votes this time, but will be so thinly spread as to make little difference – tho there will be individual constituencies where that’s not the case.

]]> By: Ed Randall http://www.libdemvoice.org/pollwatch-state-of-the-parties-lib-dems-18-labour-31-tories-38-mar-2010-so-far-18431.html#comment-111504 Ed Randall Mon, 22 Mar 2010 09:26:51 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18431#comment-111504 Stephen, I take your point that most of the poll results in this sample suggest a steady state up to mid March. The Tory series - given a leader who is still viewed favourably but a substantial part of the UK electorate - must make pretty depressing reading from their point of view. The apparent poll ceiling for them suggests that many electors simply don't believe that the Tories have/can change their spots. Labour results are a different matter. The pollsters face practical as well as methodological problems in getting at Labour support. YouGov has made a change to boost the share of firm Labour in its polls. The problems of weighting to take account of differential turnout are harder than ever - especially where potential Labour voters are concerned. LibDem support, putting Opinium to one side, has been consistent and - if leader approval ratings are a measure of potential - then there is considerable scope for a LibDem campaign bounce. What hasn't received all the attention it should have - and has been much less stable than the Tory and LibDem shares across polls - is support for Others. My guess is that dealignment /weakening of party identification and the related willingness to vote UKIP, BNP and Green in England is going to have a much bigger impact on the 2010 General Election than conventional (newsprint and TV) political commentaries have so far suggested. Stephen, I take your point that most of the poll results in this sample suggest a steady state up to mid March.

The Tory series – given a leader who is still viewed favourably but a substantial part of the UK electorate – must make pretty depressing reading from their point of view. The apparent poll ceiling for them suggests that many electors simply don’t believe that the Tories have/can change their spots.

Labour results are a different matter. The pollsters face practical as well as methodological problems in getting at Labour support. YouGov has made a change to boost the share of firm Labour in its polls. The problems of weighting to take account of differential turnout are harder than ever – especially where potential Labour voters are concerned.

LibDem support, putting Opinium to one side, has been consistent and – if leader approval ratings are a measure of potential – then there is considerable scope for a LibDem campaign bounce.

What hasn’t received all the attention it should have – and has been much less stable than the Tory and LibDem shares across polls – is support for Others. My guess is that dealignment /weakening of party identification and the related willingness to vote UKIP, BNP and Green in England is going to have a much bigger impact on the 2010 General Election than conventional (newsprint and TV) political commentaries have so far suggested.

]]> By: paul barker http://www.libdemvoice.org/pollwatch-state-of-the-parties-lib-dems-18-labour-31-tories-38-mar-2010-so-far-18431.html#comment-111447 paul barker Sun, 21 Mar 2010 20:36:14 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18431#comment-111447 What made you choose the 14th as a cut off point ? Theres been another 9 polls since then, averageing 19.2%. Another 2 tonight, probably. What made you choose the 14th as a cut off point ? Theres been another 9 polls since then, averageing
19.2%. Another 2 tonight, probably.

]]> By: Anthony Aloysius St http://www.libdemvoice.org/pollwatch-state-of-the-parties-lib-dems-18-labour-31-tories-38-mar-2010-so-far-18431.html#comment-111428 Anthony Aloysius St Sun, 21 Mar 2010 17:31:11 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18431#comment-111428 Jack I'm not saying I think YouGov is necessarily wrong - just that there are so many YouGov polls in the list that they will dominate the average, in a way they won't have done in previous months. Jack

I’m not saying I think YouGov is necessarily wrong – just that there are so many YouGov polls in the list that they will dominate the average, in a way they won’t have done in previous months.

]]> By: Jack Holroyde http://www.libdemvoice.org/pollwatch-state-of-the-parties-lib-dems-18-labour-31-tories-38-mar-2010-so-far-18431.html#comment-111425 Jack Holroyde Sun, 21 Mar 2010 17:11:00 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18431#comment-111425 Equally, they have been out of sync with other polls for some time- but often show themselves to be right. The black sheep isn't always wrong - it might be that they know something we dont... Equally, they have been out of sync with other polls for some time- but often show themselves to be right.
The black sheep isn’t always wrong – it might be that they know something we dont…

]]> By: Anthony Aloysius St http://www.libdemvoice.org/pollwatch-state-of-the-parties-lib-dems-18-labour-31-tories-38-mar-2010-so-far-18431.html#comment-111423 Anthony Aloysius St Sun, 21 Mar 2010 16:49:45 +0000 http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=18431#comment-111423 There's a problem with a simple average of all the polls, though. With YouGov producing 5 polls a week, nearly two thirds of those you're averaging come from a single pollster, and one which has generally seemed out of step with the others. There’s a problem with a simple average of all the polls, though. With YouGov producing 5 polls a week, nearly two thirds of those you’re averaging come from a single pollster, and one which has generally seemed out of step with the others.

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