According to the poll, the SNP has a 5 per cent lead over Labour on the constituency vote and 4 per cent on the regional vote – the same margins as last month.

If these findings were replicated on 3 May, the SNP would win 17 extra seats at Holyrood taking its total to 44 MSPs, with Labour down 11 to just 39.

However, the findings are likely to be a blow to Nationalist morale, which was boosted by other polls which suggested they could win up to 50 seats at Holyrood.

Seat projections by Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, show that the Liberal Democrats would take 24 seats, up from 17 in 2003, making them “kingmakers” – in a strong position in likely coalition negotiations.

These figures would allow the SNP and the Lib Dems to form a governing coalition with a comfortable majority of seven over all of the other parties and confine Labour to opposition for the third term of the Scottish Parliament.

However, the strength of the Lib Dem support would put them in a strong position to hold out against the Nationalists’ demand for an independence referendum as the price for forming a coalition.

The poll also contains bad news for the Scottish Conservatives. According to the poll, support for the Tories, who launched their manifesto yesterday, has fallen by 3 per cent and they would lose three seats, taking their tally of MSPs to just 15.

http://news.scotsman.com/scotland.cfm?id=510822007