Tag Archives: atul hatwal

So how’s my scenario 3 – a Tory lead of 6% by May 2015 – working out then?

Time to dust down a post from last December looking at scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling – two of which pointed to the Conservatives being likely to take a poll lead in the next year.

(NB: as then, please note my huge caveat – “the extent of the polling science on display here is me playing around on an Excel spreadsheet.”)

In particular, I was curious what might have happen to my third scenario in the meantime. So pasted below is what I wrote in December, but I’ve updated the graph to add the last four months’ average poll leads to see how they fit the trend-line. (The answer is pretty well.)

Scenario 3

File this under the heading “a bit of fun… probably” – let’s look at the whole parliament and insert a polynomial trendline to take us through to May 2015. Here’s what happens:

tory lead in may 2015 scenario 3

Under Scenario 3, then, the Conservatives bounce back from their mid-term slump to lead Labour by 6% come the next general election. It couldn’t happen – could it?

Posted in News and Polls | Also tagged and | 20 Comments

“Labour is going for a coalition with the Lib Dems come what may.”

That’s the view over at Labour Uncut, where editor Atul Hatwal reckons Labour is scaling back its key seat targeting strategy to an extent which means that – even if it works – Ed Miliband will only be able to govern with the backing of the Lib Dems.

… it is the scale of reprioritisation which effectively means Labour has abandoned thoughts of governing alone and is now aiming for coalition with Lib Dems.

Labour’s struggle in the south in particular is crippling the party’s ability to push for a clear majority. … One seasoned campaign professional with knowledge of

Posted in News | Also tagged and | 28 Comments

Your essential weekend reader — my personal pick of the week’s must-reads

It’s Saturday evening, so here are twelve thought-provoking articles to stimulate your thinking juices culled from all those I’ve linked to this last week. You can follow me on Delicious here.

Political predictions: as the year ends, what does 2013 hold for the main party leaders? – Andrew Rawnsley sanely assesses the 12 months to come: ‘Nick Clegg and David Cameron face more of the same. Ed Miliband’s future is more complicated. He has choices.’

No longer the dunce – Anne McElvoy whispers the …

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Your essential weekend reader — 12 must-read articles you may have missed

It’s Saturday evening, so here are twelve thought-provoking articles to stimulate your thinking juices…

Britain and Europe: Making the break – The Economist‘s verdict on many Europhobes’ éjaculation nocturne: ‘The most likely outcome would be that Britain would find itself as a scratchy outsider with somewhat limited access to the single market, almost no influence and few friends. And one certainty: that having once departed, it would be all but impossible to get back in again.’

Boris shows that Eurosceptics are in a mess

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    7% in last nights Opinion poll. There is something amiss in what we are doing or not doing. One problem maybe Mr Clegg. Is he...
  • User AvatarGlenn 28th Mar - 4:14am
    Roland, Mainly America and Russia in WW II, which was the war we were talking about.
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    Zachary As David Raw points out the imperial mentality is hardly dead, neither is the cold war one judging from what you write about NATO....
  • User AvatarGeoff Reid 28th Mar - 3:12am
    Just as remarkable as the editorial was the description of Tim Farron "cementing his growing role as the political leader of the Remain movement" in...
  • User AvatarEddie Sammon 28th Mar - 12:41am
    Roland, my close family has two EU migrants and zero expats in. The distinction between "their people" and "our people" is largely meaningless.
  • User AvatarMark Valladares 28th Mar - 12:07am
    Lester, Gender-based violence was the theme resolution for the ALN Assembly. There was also a range of training workshops, with particular focus on coalition negotiations...