Tag Archives: atul hatwal

So how’s my scenario 3 – a Tory lead of 6% by May 2015 – working out then?

Time to dust down a post from last December looking at scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling – two of which pointed to the Conservatives being likely to take a poll lead in the next year.

(NB: as then, please note my huge caveat – “the extent of the polling science on display here is me playing around on an Excel spreadsheet.”)

In particular, I was curious what might have happen to my third scenario in the meantime. So pasted below is what I wrote in December, but I’ve updated the graph to add the last four months’ average poll leads to see how they fit the trend-line. (The answer is pretty well.)

Scenario 3

File this under the heading “a bit of fun… probably” – let’s look at the whole parliament and insert a polynomial trendline to take us through to May 2015. Here’s what happens:

tory lead in may 2015 scenario 3

Under Scenario 3, then, the Conservatives bounce back from their mid-term slump to lead Labour by 6% come the next general election. It couldn’t happen – could it?

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“Labour is going for a coalition with the Lib Dems come what may.”

That’s the view over at Labour Uncut, where editor Atul Hatwal reckons Labour is scaling back its key seat targeting strategy to an extent which means that – even if it works – Ed Miliband will only be able to govern with the backing of the Lib Dems.

… it is the scale of reprioritisation which effectively means Labour has abandoned thoughts of governing alone and is now aiming for coalition with Lib Dems.

Labour’s struggle in the south in particular is crippling the party’s ability to push for a clear majority. … One seasoned campaign professional with knowledge of

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Your essential weekend reader — my personal pick of the week’s must-reads

It’s Saturday evening, so here are twelve thought-provoking articles to stimulate your thinking juices culled from all those I’ve linked to this last week. You can follow me on Delicious here.

Political predictions: as the year ends, what does 2013 hold for the main party leaders? – Andrew Rawnsley sanely assesses the 12 months to come: ‘Nick Clegg and David Cameron face more of the same. Ed Miliband’s future is more complicated. He has choices.’

No longer the dunce – Anne McElvoy whispers the …

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Your essential weekend reader — 12 must-read articles you may have missed

It’s Saturday evening, so here are twelve thought-provoking articles to stimulate your thinking juices…

Britain and Europe: Making the break – The Economist‘s verdict on many Europhobes’ éjaculation nocturne: ‘The most likely outcome would be that Britain would find itself as a scratchy outsider with somewhat limited access to the single market, almost no influence and few friends. And one certainty: that having once departed, it would be all but impossible to get back in again.’

Boris shows that Eurosceptics are in a mess

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Recent Comments

  • User AvatarRichard Underhill 1st Dec - 12:01am
    The vote is in the Commons on Wednesday. The bye-election in Oldham is on Thursday. Am I getting too cynical about the timing?
  • User AvatarEddie Sammon 30th Nov - 11:57pm
    PS, after this vote we need another one ASAP sanctioning Assad and Putin. No fly zones should be on the table. I just didn't want...
  • User AvatarRichard Underhill 30th Nov - 11:57pm
    Anne 30th Nov '15 - 10:04am Immigration is much more diverse and complicated than just two categories, refugees and economic migrants. Tories from David Cameron...
  • User AvatarEddie Sammon 30th Nov - 11:34pm
    I agree Austin. I understand pacifism if based on religious or sincerely held-belief, but a lot seems to be "don't intervene" because apparently non-intervention is...
  • User AvatarGeoff Crocker 30th Nov - 11:30pm
    Thanks Peter. I agree with what you say about trade balances etc. But this is a different question to the one I address. I maintain...
  • User AvatarJames sheerin 30th Nov - 11:18pm
    This is almost enough to make me leave the Lib Dems. We should never join a war where we don't know who our enemies and...