Tag Archives: atul hatwal

So how’s my scenario 3 – a Tory lead of 6% by May 2015 – working out then?

Time to dust down a post from last December looking at scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling – two of which pointed to the Conservatives being likely to take a poll lead in the next year.

(NB: as then, please note my huge caveat – “the extent of the polling science on display here is me playing around on an Excel spreadsheet.”)

In particular, I was curious what might have happen to my third scenario in the meantime. So pasted below is what I wrote in December, but I’ve updated the graph to add the last four months’ average poll leads to see how they fit the trend-line. (The answer is pretty well.)

Scenario 3

File this under the heading “a bit of fun… probably” – let’s look at the whole parliament and insert a polynomial trendline to take us through to May 2015. Here’s what happens:

tory lead in may 2015 scenario 3

Under Scenario 3, then, the Conservatives bounce back from their mid-term slump to lead Labour by 6% come the next general election. It couldn’t happen – could it?

Posted in News and Polls | Also tagged and | 20 Comments

“Labour is going for a coalition with the Lib Dems come what may.”

That’s the view over at Labour Uncut, where editor Atul Hatwal reckons Labour is scaling back its key seat targeting strategy to an extent which means that – even if it works – Ed Miliband will only be able to govern with the backing of the Lib Dems.

… it is the scale of reprioritisation which effectively means Labour has abandoned thoughts of governing alone and is now aiming for coalition with Lib Dems.

Labour’s struggle in the south in particular is crippling the party’s ability to push for a clear majority. … One seasoned campaign professional with knowledge of

Posted in News | Also tagged and | 28 Comments

Your essential weekend reader — my personal pick of the week’s must-reads

It’s Saturday evening, so here are twelve thought-provoking articles to stimulate your thinking juices culled from all those I’ve linked to this last week. You can follow me on Delicious here.

Political predictions: as the year ends, what does 2013 hold for the main party leaders? – Andrew Rawnsley sanely assesses the 12 months to come: ‘Nick Clegg and David Cameron face more of the same. Ed Miliband’s future is more complicated. He has choices.’

No longer the dunce – Anne McElvoy whispers the …

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Your essential weekend reader — 12 must-read articles you may have missed

It’s Saturday evening, so here are twelve thought-provoking articles to stimulate your thinking juices…

Britain and Europe: Making the break – The Economist‘s verdict on many Europhobes’ éjaculation nocturne: ‘The most likely outcome would be that Britain would find itself as a scratchy outsider with somewhat limited access to the single market, almost no influence and few friends. And one certainty: that having once departed, it would be all but impossible to get back in again.’

Boris shows that Eurosceptics are in a mess

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Recent Comments

  • User AvatarAndrew 7th Jul - 1:19am
    As a slightly different pesrpective on the way forward I recommend the new pamphlet by David Howarth and Mark Pack. This says that campaigning on...
  • User AvatarAndrew 7th Jul - 1:10am
    I agree with Eddie actually that STV is quite hard to explain, and the ERS website by talking about "the quota" and a "single vote...
  • User Avatarkevin 7th Jul - 12:35am
    Best option would be to make the BBC a subscription channel and finally end the broadcasting poll tax. Free over 75's TV license issue solved...
  • User Avatarkevin 7th Jul - 12:28am
    'Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael applied for the session claiming the government had abused parliamentary process' Pot & kettle, clearly Carmichael doesn't do self awareness.
  • User AvatarKevin Manley 6th Jul - 11:59pm
    Good article -gets the scale of the problem. Kind of agree with theakes though -we just need to move on. The problem with talking about...
  • User AvatarEddie Sammon 6th Jul - 11:42pm
    Hi John, I don't think it makes clear whether it is a second preference or multi voting system. I had to find other websites in...
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