Tag Archives: don paskini

Reasons for Lib Dem cheer — as told by Labour and Tory supporters

Just two things from me:

1) Anyone trying to forecast how the Lib Dems will do in 2015 based on extrapolating mid-term opinion polls on the basis of uniform national swing is likely to be as wrong as they would have been at every general election in modern history.

2) My confident forecast for 2015 is the Lib Dems will a) do less well than I’d like and b) do better than our fiercest critics would like.

Posted in News | Also tagged , , and | 41 Comments
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  • User AvatarHywel 5th Mar - 6:28pm
    Chris - but note also the methodology split http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/03/02/the-great-methodology-divide-all-the-con-leads-are-from-phone-polls-all-but-one-of-the-lab-leads-are-from-online-surveys/
  • User AvatarPBBrown 5th Mar - 6:14pm
    It's not hard to see why Clegg was dubbed Calamity by people within the party.
  • User AvatarChris Manners 5th Mar - 6:04pm
    "he current position seems to be an average Tory lead somewhere between 0.5% & 1%. Thats a big contrast with December when Labour had an...
  • User AvatarNick Collins 5th Mar - 6:00pm
    I'm no fan of Blair, but if he is making a donation to help put a stop to the current government, he cannot be all...
  • User AvatarChris Manners 5th Mar - 5:59pm
    "and that’s before we get on to the specifically LD things like the pupil premium." There was already extra funding for poorer communities before. Only...
  • User AvatarPBBrown 5th Mar - 5:52pm
    @expat Good points. I find it sad that Caron seems to be [in my opinion] descending into the kind of tribalism against Labour that she...