Tag Archives: featured

Opinion polls yadda yadda. OR “Does Nate Silver mean nothing to you? Did he write in vain?”

By Stephen Tall | Tue 21st May 2013 - 8:45 am

Two new polls last night: the daily YouGov tracker and the first post-local elections poll from Survation. The spread is interesting:

Labour:

Conservatives:

Lib Dems:

Ukip:

As Anthony Wells points out, Survation asks whether people will vote Ukip (most other firms just ask about the main three parties and ‘Others’) so usually gets the highest Ukip poll numbers. This latest survey is in line with the bounce other firms have shown and which the perceived winner of an election often records.

Unsurprisingly, it’s Survation’s poll which has attracted most interest because it shows a gap if just 2% between the Tories and Ukip. Cue cries of ‘Tory meltdown!, ‘Cameron in crisis!’ and every other journalistic cliche.

At the risk of precipitating on the parade of those who love nothing better than to indulge in over-excited hyper-speculation, can I make the following point. Or rather can I ask the following question: Does Nate Silver mean nothing to you? Did he write in vain?

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Posted in Op-eds and Polls | Also tagged nate silver, survation, ukip and yougov | 22 Comments

Nick Clegg’s Letter from the Leader: “Of course the EU has to change”

By Stephen Tall | Sun 19th May 2013 - 10:45 am

No prizes for guessing which subject Nick Clegg tackles in his latest weekly letter to supporters: Europe. He rattles through the three positions: ‘calamitous outers’, ‘inconsequential renegotiators’ and ‘achievable reformers’. No prizes for guessing which he identifies with the Lib Dems. Over to Nick…

I’m writing this week’s Letter to you from Kirkwall in Orkney. Alistair Carmichael and Jim Wallace have been trying to persuade me to make the trip for a while and I’ve finally made it in order to join the celebrations of the centenary of Jo Grimond’s birth.

The big debate this week in British politics, which featured strongly in PMQs – where I was standing in for the PM (you can watch it here) – has obviously been about our future role in Europe. An issue on which Jo Grimond was a pioneer and leader.

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Posted in News | Also tagged european union, jo grimond, letter from the leader and nick clegg | 23 Comments

“They’re all mad, swivel-eyed loons”: a top Tory on the Tories

By Stephen Tall | Sat 18th May 2013 - 12:15 pm

Here’s the remark attributed to ‘a member of the Prime Minister’s inner circle’ according to the Telegraph:

“There’s really no problem,” the Conservative figure said about the parliamentary turmoil. “The MPs just have to do it because the associations tell them to, and the associations are all mad swivel-eyed loons.”

There is an obvious point here (and it’s the reason why whoever said it will soon be resigned): don’t diss your own supporters. ‘Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican,’ was Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment. It was as …

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Posted in News | Also tagged conservative party and tim farron | 12 Comments

Edward Davey writes… Helping consumers to get cheaper energy bills

By Edward Davey MP | Sat 18th May 2013 - 11:25 am

As we finally emerge from what felt like a never ending winter, many consumers are rightly concerned about the energy bills landing on their doormats.

In Government I’m doing everything I can to ‘cushion’ people from bill increases. Wholesale energy prices make up nearly half of the typical household bill and controlling the recent increases is outside of our control. However, there’s a whole range of measures that we’re introducing to help people to keep their homes warm and their bills down – particularly the Green Deal, with the latest …

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Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged energy | 16 Comments

That EU vote: 6 thoughts on what it means for the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour

By Stephen Tall | Thu 16th May 2013 - 8:40 am

116 Tory MPs last night backed an amendment to the Queen’s Speech and called for an EU referendum bill. Here’s six thoughts from me on what it all means…

This wasn’t about Europe (much): this was about Cameron’s leadership

The Tory outers/Eurosceptics had already won: David Cameron capitulated in January, conceding an in/out referendum he’d tried hard to dodge. But that wasn’t enough for them. So they forced the Tory leader to capitulate again this week, forcing him to rush out a draft Bill legislating for just such a …

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Posted in News and Op-eds | Also tagged david cameron and European referendum | 17 Comments

Liberal Democrat MPs to be given free vote on all aspects of Same Sex Marriage Bill

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 15th May 2013 - 7:27 pm

Rumours reach my ears of a surprise decision at last night’s Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Party Meeting. The Same Sex Marriage Bill comes back to the Commons next Monday for two days of debate on a number of amendments.

At Second Reading in February, no votes were whipped. Chief Whip Alistair Carmichael stepped out of the shadows to explain why to Lib Dem Voice readers.

The view of my parliamentary colleagues that came up time and again was that they supported equal marriage and were keen to see it on the statute book. They wanted, in fact, not just to support the

…

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Posted in News and Op-eds | Also tagged equal marriage, same sex marriage and same sex marriage bill | 26 Comments

Lib Dem attitudes to poverty and welfare: 3 interesting findings from today’s Joseph Rowntree Foundation report

By Stephen Tall | Tue 14th May 2013 - 6:05 pm

Three interesting findings from today’s report for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) — Public attitudes to poverty and welfare 1983-2011 — carried out by NatCen Social Research, exploring public attitudes to poverty and welfare over the past three decades.

1) Interestingly… Lib Dem supporters are less likely than Labour supporters to believe that people live in need because of laziness or a lack of willpower.

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Posted in News | Also tagged joseph rowntree foundation, poverty and welfare reform | 18 Comments

Libby Local, The Finale: “The Bright Side of Life”

By Libby Local | Mon 13th May 2013 - 10:30 am

Since last October, the pseudonymous Libby Local has been keeping LDV readers up-to-date with her first-time attempt to win Demsbury Central in Libbyshire. We published the penultimate episode, “Election Day!” yesterday. Here’s the finale…

There was moment’s silence after the pub band finished belting out “Wild Thing.” I leant on Mel and whispered in her ear. “Thank you. Thank you so much. I couldn’t have done it without you.”

Twelve hours earlier, my stomach had been in a knot and I felt physically sick. I was standing with Melanie, @Demsburybess and a small clutch of supporters in front of the counting table in Libbytown. Maxwell Tarmac-Smyth and his team were huddled at the other end. The UKIP candidate had not bothered to turn up.

I could barely breath as my votes were bundled into twenty-fives and checked. We counted and made a mental note of my total. It was well over 500. I was in with a chance!

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Posted in Op-eds | 4 Comments

Nick Clegg’s Letter from the Leader: “Lib Dems remain focused on the things people really care about”

By Stephen Tall | Sun 12th May 2013 - 8:55 am

Nick Clegg isn’t one for the pomp and pageant of parliament (he’s rather keen to let you know). He’s also keen to let you know that this week’s Queen’s Speech was “designed to build a stronger economy and a fairer society in Britain, enabling everyone to get on in life” (to quote Her Majesty). Over to Nick…

Fair pensions. Decent care in your old age. A tax cut for small businesses taking on staff. A major new high speed railway. Energy investment to keep lights on and bills affordable. Shared parental leave. Rehabilitation of prisoners to set them back on the straight and narrow.

Just a few highlights from the Government’s plans for legislation this year, outlined this Wednesday in the Queen’s Speech, designed to build a stronger economy and a fairer society in Britain, enabling everyone to get on in life.

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Posted in News | Also tagged letter from the leader, nick clegg and queen's speech | 8 Comments

The double dip recession that never was?

By Stephen Tall | Sat 11th May 2013 - 12:35 pm

Did the double-dip recession ever happen? It looks increasingly possible that it didn’t — the BBC reports the latest revision to the data:

A revision by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has cast doubt on the UK’s double-dip recession last year. Revised growth estimates now suggest the construction industry shrank in the first quarter of 2012, but by less than previously thought. Analysts say the revision may be enough to mean the overall economy narrowly avoided falling into recession for a second time. The ONS is due to give official confirmation of this in June.

In fact there was a …

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Posted in News | Also tagged hamish mcrae, niesr, office for national statistics, peter kellner, recession and vince cable | 17 Comments

Can a global trade deal be rescued?

By Nick Thornsby | Thu 9th May 2013 - 8:13 am

Congratulations to Roberto Azevedo, who, it has just been announced, will take over from Pascal Lamy as the head of the World Trade Organisation later this year. Azevedo, a Brazilian diplomat, beat off Herminio Blanco, a former Mexican finance minister who had the backing of many developed countries.

The most obvious and pressing task facing Azevedo is to rescue the so-called Doha Round of world trade talks, which stalled in 2008 and have made little progress since.

In the absence of global progress, a number of bilateral trade talks have sprung up, most recently …

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Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged free trade and world trade organisation | 3 Comments

Saying ‘YES’ to Political Football!

By Steve Bradley | Tue 7th May 2013 - 12:22 pm

Liverpool FC’s famous former manager, Bill Shankly, once quipped that football was more important than life itself. To those with little interest in the game, the thrall that 22 men chasing a ball can have upon millions of people must be baffling. But whether it be in the media, the High Street, the school playground or business boardrooms, there can be no question that football is one of the most important social, cultural and commercial forces in Britain today.

British football is plagued by a deeply dysfunctional side, however, which places …

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Posted in News | Also tagged football and Liberal Democrat Friends of Football | 45 Comments

The Queen’s Speech: move along folks, not much to see here

By Stephen Tall | Mon 6th May 2013 - 7:35 pm

This week sees the fourth Queen’s Speech of this Coalition Government, but no-one’s expecting it to be especially busy or radical.

(You can hear me discuss some of the reasons why on Radio 4′s PM programme here.)

To some extent, Lib Dems will breathe a sigh of relief: missing from it will be any reference to the Communications Data Bill, already torpedoed by Nick Clegg. Indeed, the Speech seems to have been stripped of those bits of legislation which looked set to cause the Coalition leaders most aggro for least reward. While Lib Dem pressure saw off the …

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Posted in News | Also tagged queen's speech 2013 | 3 Comments

A Tory-Ukip pact? Up to you, guys. But you do know there’s an easier way, right?

By Stephen Tall | Mon 6th May 2013 - 3:35 pm

Ukip’s spectacular showing at last week’s local elections has got the Tories spooked. The full realisation is sinking in that this may not be a one-off eruption of popular protest.

Nigel Farage’s band of modern-life-is-rubbish disciples will likely top next year’s Euro polls. Such momentum may propel them towards a double-digit general election performance in 2015. If so, the Tories’ hope of a majority is dead: Ed Miliband will become prime minister as leader of the largest single party.

Though the local elections were scarcely a bundle of laughs for …

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Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged conservative party, ConservativeHome, nigel farage, tim bale and ukip | 47 Comments

Jo Swinson thanks hospital staff for “keeping me alive”

By Caron Lindsay | Sun 5th May 2013 - 3:55 pm

In October 2010, I interviewed Jo Swinson for this site and she told me of the work she was doing to help children with allergies who were being bullied at school:

Basically, other kids had put the food that they’re allergic to in their pockets or bags. Worse, the kids had been held down and had the toxic food pushed towards their face. We all know that children can be cruel and all bullying is bad and needs to be addressed, but the specific issue with this

…

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Posted in News | Also tagged anaphylaxis, Jo Swinson, st john ambulance and the anaphylaxis campaign | 12 Comments

What the 2013 local elections mean – for the Lib Dems and the next election (and beyond)

By Stephen Tall | Fri 3rd May 2013 - 7:15 pm

Well, it could have been worse.

The BBC calculates that the Lib Dems have finished these local elections with the loss of a net 124 councillors, slightly better than the projected loss of 130 according to the Rallings and Thrasher model I said the results could best be judged by.

The Tories have done slightly worse (actual loss of 335 councillors compared to a projected loss of 310); while Labour has disappointed its own supprters (an actual gain of 291 councillors compared to the projected gain of 350).

There’s no doubt which party is the biggest winner: Ukip, by an …

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Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged local elections 2013 | 79 Comments

Opinion: Ironically, the rise of UKIP makes Britain a more European place

By Giles Goodall | Fri 3rd May 2013 - 7:00 pm

UKIP’s relative success in the English local elections and South Shields by-election this week has met with predictable reactions across the political spectrum: from copycat politics and jealousy on the Tory right, to handwringing and downright despair on the centre left.

But while UKIP has succeeded in hoovering up disenchanted Tories by the thousand, its appeal is clearly much broader. In fact, the rise of UKIP’s populist anti-politics replicates a pattern played out across Europe since the crisis hit, from the Danish People’s Party to Italy’s Beppe Grillo. Ironically, with …

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Posted in Europe / International and Op-eds | Also tagged denmark, eu, europe, local elections 2013 and ukip | 25 Comments

Local elections 2013: Summary of overnight Council results

By Caron Lindsay | Fri 3rd May 2013 - 8:05 am

Stephen Tall has the South Shields analysis for you here. I’m rounding up the council results.

Lib Dems win by-election with swing from Labour in Sheffield

Let’s start with some very good news. We can still get a respectable swing from Labour to us in the north. Sheffield Liberal Democrats successfully defended Fulwood ward in a by-election caused by the sad death of Cllr Janice Sidebottom in March. New Cllr Cliff Woodcraft won with a majority of 1428 (compared to 800 when the ward was contested last year). This is significant because Fulwood is in Nick Clegg’s seat. There was a …

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Posted in News | Also tagged local elections 2013 | 25 Comments

South Shields by-election: Labour hold solid, Ukip surge, Tories fall and Lib Dems… plummet to 7th. Ouch.

By Stephen Tall | Fri 3rd May 2013 - 7:35 am

The South Shields by-election — triggered by David Miliband’s exit from British political life — has resulted in a solid hold for Labour, which polled just over half the vote, only fractionally down on its 2010 position.

But it’s Ukip which has most to celebrate: in a seat they haven’t contested since 2001, they stormed to a strong second, winning almost one-quarter of the vote.

The Tories lost almost half their vote, slipping to third. Meanwhile the Lib Dems’ valiant Hugh Annand lost his deposit, trailing in seventh place behind the BNP.

Full result below:

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Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged hugh annand and south shields | 42 Comments

Nick Clegg MP writes… The Labour and Tory exodus

By Nick Clegg MP | Mon 29th April 2013 - 12:50 pm

Something is happening on the centre ground of British politics. An exodus. The Conservative leadership is being lured to the right. Ed Miliband is pulling his party to the left. Only the Liberal Democrats are holding firm.

That creates an opportunity for our party. Over the last twenty years the centre has become a crowded place. First New Labour pitched up, determined to demonstrate a new found credibility on the economy. Then followed a detoxified Conservative Party, hugging hoodies and frolicking with huskies. Yet now – in what, in time, may prove to be a highly significant political shift – the …

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Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged conservative party, ed miliband, european convention on human rights, labour party, new labour and tony blair | 80 Comments

What will happen to the Lib Dems in Thursday’s local elections?

By Stephen Tall | Mon 29th April 2013 - 8:25 am

There are just three campaigning days left until this Thursday’s local elections taking place across much of England.*

It’ll be tough-going for the Lib Dems…

The last time these seats were fought, in 2009, was a high water-mark for the party: we polled a national equivalent vote-share of 25%. As I said in my morning-after-the-night-before round-up here, they “were, generally, pretty damn good for the Lib Dems”.

Since entering government, the party’s become used to taking a battering in local elections. As the national polls indicate, our vote share has roughly halved since the Coalition was formed. Because we poll higher in local than national elections, this means we’re likely to secure around 15-16% of the popular vote on Thursday. If that’s the case, our number of councillors will again decline.

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Posted in Local government and News | Also tagged colin rawlings, local elections 2013, Mark Pack, michael thrasher and politicalbetting.com | 26 Comments

Fraser Nelson attacks pupil premium using report that, erm, doesn’t attack pupil premium

By Stephen Tall | Fri 26th April 2013 - 12:55 pm

Fraser Nelson is in bold form today: Spending more doesn’t improve public services.

His basis for this judgement is a report prepared for the Department for Education by Deloitte (available here). If there’s a headline conclusion it’s the fairly uncontentious point that simply spending money on schools does not, in itself, guarantee good outcomes. It matters at least as much how you spend it.

So far, so obvious. And if Fraser’s article had stuck to that basic conclusion it would’ve been fine. But he wanted to make a …

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Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged deloitte, department for education, fraser nelson and pupil premium | 12 Comments

Nick Clegg: Snoopers’ charter is not going to happen with Liberal Democrats in Government

By Caron Lindsay | Thu 25th April 2013 - 12:35 pm

Julian Huppert has already joyfully welcomed Nick Clegg’s decision to veto Tory plans on web snooping. However, I thought I’d give you the chance to hear Nick Clegg’s words from Call Clegg this morning. I certainly wasn’t expecting such an unequivocal statement. He has given himself no wiggle room at all. This is what he said:

What people have dubbed the snoopers’ charter, I just have to be clear with you, that’s not going to happen. In other words, the idea that the Government will pass a law which means there would be a record kept of every website you visit,

…

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Posted in News | Also tagged call clegg, draft communications data bill, nick clegg and snoopers charter | 9 Comments

Relief as 0.3% GDP growth shows economy flat-lining not shrinking. Has the Coalition’s mid-term slump bottomed out?

By Stephen Tall | Thu 25th April 2013 - 11:35 am

Reading too much into quarterly GDP figures is, of course, a mug’s game. They’re noticed mainly by avid Westminster-watchers and frequently revised both up and down.

None of that means they don’t matter, though. They frame the way politics is reported in the here and now. And that can affect what happens in the future. They can create momentum, or they can stop it dead.

A triple-dip recession, against market expectations of a modest 0.1% increase in GDP, would’ve been a severe blow to the Coalition’s message that, surely but slowly, the medicine’s working. As it is, the actual 0.3% …

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Posted in News | Also tagged economy, gdp and nick clegg | 9 Comments

Julian Huppert MP writes… Did it. As promised.

By Julian Huppert MP | Tue 23rd April 2013 - 6:12 pm

I’ve been working on the Defamation Bill for years and now we are near the end phase.

Last week, I wrote here that we’d managed to secure a concession from the Government on something we’d argued for for a while – requiring companies to prove serious financial harm to take any libel action.

There were skeptics – lots of people saying they’d believe it when they saw it.

Well, today the Lords discussed the Government amendment we won, and supported it. The Bill can now proceed to Royal Assent.

We can …

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Posted in News | Also tagged defamation bill | 3 Comments

LibLink: Greg Mulholland – A day to celebrate England, Englishness, and all things English

By The Voice | Tue 23rd April 2013 - 11:58 am

Today is St George’s Day, and Greg Mulholland has marked the occasion with an article in Endeavour Public Affairs. He writes:

St George’s Day is an occasion when we should celebrate England, Englishness, and all things English. Yet how many English people actually take the time to celebrate, to commemorate the event, even by that most English of pastimes, by popping for a pint of England’s national drink, beer, in one of our most distinctive of English institutions, the public house?

It often seems to me, surely strangely, that the answer is fewer than the number of people who live in England and celebrate St Patrick’s Day. It is not only the Irish Diaspora communities who celebrate this, so why is it that not more English residents, whether born and bred or not, choose to celebrate our national day?

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Posted in LibLink | Also tagged england and st george | 24 Comments

The 2013 spending review: the Lib Dem problem is at least as big as Labour’s

By Stephen Tall | Tue 23rd April 2013 - 10:25 am

Last Friday’s Independent splashed on the story, Exclusive: Labour bets the house with pledge to outspend Tories.

The story itself is disputed: Ed Balls rushed on the radio to rebut it: “Is it the policy of Ed Miliband and me Ed Balls that we will decide now to bet the house with a pledge to outspend the Tories? No, that is not our policy, that is not our position.” (Note to Ed Balls’ handlers: speaking of yourself in the third person is …

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Posted in News | Also tagged ed balls, IFS and spending review 2013 | 16 Comments

Times: ‘Cameron is told to drop snooping on web users’

By Stephen Tall | Mon 22nd April 2013 - 8:05 am

Today’s Times front page is dominated by the news that nine cyber-security experts and academics have issued a stark warning to David Cameron to halt ‘sweeping plans to hand the security services the power to snoop on emails, website visits and social media sites’: “they remain as naive and technically dangerous as when they were floated by the last government,” they warn.

The paper notes the opposition both of Nick Clegg — who highlighted his disagreement with the draft Bill last December — and of Lib Dem MP Julian Huppert, who points out: “Where we lead, other countries would follow, snooping on their citizens’ legal activities. … The case for these proposals is massively out-weighed by the cost and the harm to privacy, here and overseas.”

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Posted in News | Also tagged angela sasse, david cameron, draft communications data bill, ian brown, julian huppert, nick clegg, ross anderson, the times and theresa may | 4 Comments

Nick Clegg’s Letter from the Leader: “I absolutely love being out on the campaign trail”

By Stephen Tall | Sun 21st April 2013 - 5:20 pm

With local elections taking place across much of England (and, lets not forget, the Isle of Angelsey in Wales) on Thursday 2nd May, Nick Clegg’s letter this week focuses on the drive to get out the Lib Dem vote…

With less than two weeks to go until this year’s local elections, the campaigning has really stepped up a notch. I’ll be spending the next week criss-crossing the country, knocking on doors, delivering leaflets and hearing about local Lib Dem success stories from jobs we’ve created to libraries we’re

…

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Posted in News | Also tagged kendal, letter from the leader, local elections 2013, nick clegg, south lakeland council and tim farron | 5 Comments