Tag Archives: general election 2015

In the next month 6 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs

Lib Dems winning hereHere’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications. They include Bristol North West, on paper the 26th most winnable seat for the Lib Dems, needing a swing of 3% from the Tories.

The following seats have selections in progress and are currently advertising for candidates:

Posted in Selection news | 2 Comments

Manifesto 2015: The debate is on

logo_lg new Liberal Democrat logoLast week saw the final, rearranged, Manifesto Roadshow in Leeds chaired by Sal Brinton. Those of us present had some good opportunities to suggest and debate policy ideas for the 2015 General Election manifesto.

There was lots of discussion of transport issues – around the quality and reliability of buses and trains and the capacity of the rail network. I raised the point that transport links between and within the northern cities has been identified as a vital ingredient in the agglomeration recipe that supports economic growth. While there has been some progress on this, such as with the Northern Rail Hub, we need much stronger and clearer ambition still.

Posted in News | Also tagged and | 8 Comments

So how’s my scenario 3 – a Tory lead of 6% by May 2015 – working out then?

Time to dust down a post from last December looking at scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling – two of which pointed to the Conservatives being likely to take a poll lead in the next year.

(NB: as then, please note my huge caveat – “the extent of the polling science on display here is me playing around on an Excel spreadsheet.”)

In particular, I was curious what might have happen to my third scenario in the meantime. So pasted below is what I wrote in December, but I’ve updated the graph to add the last four months’ average poll leads to see how they fit the trend-line. (The answer is pretty well.)

Scenario 3

File this under the heading “a bit of fun… probably” – let’s look at the whole parliament and insert a polynomial trendline to take us through to May 2015. Here’s what happens:

tory lead in may 2015 scenario 3

Under Scenario 3, then, the Conservatives bounce back from their mid-term slump to lead Labour by 6% come the next general election. It couldn’t happen – could it?

Posted in News and Polls | Also tagged and | 20 Comments

Without a shadow of a doubt: Vince Cable should be the Lib Dems’ Shadow Chancellor at the 2015 election

Vincent CableOne of the quirks of being in coalition is the Lib Dems no longer have a shadow chancellor. But we shall need one in time for the 2015 general election – not least for the traditional televised ‘Ask the Chancellors’ debate.

There have been newspaper reports that there’s some jockeying for this position, with the Financial Times reporting that “Senior Lib Dems say the high-profile job is very likely to go to Danny Alexander, the Treasury chief secretary”.

Meanwhile, over at the New Statesman, Lib Dem blogger Richard Morris …

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Ming Campbell’s successor selected: Tim Brett to fight North East Fife for Lib Dems in 2015

tim brettFormer Lib Dem leader Ming Campbell announced last October he’d retire as MP for North East Fife at the next general election, after eight elections (five of them successful) and 28 years.

His successor has now been announced: Tim Brett, leader of Fife Council Liberal Democrats and former chief executive of Ninewells Hospital, will contest the seat for the Lib Dems. Here’s what his biography on the Scottish Lib Dem website says about him:

Tim has lived in NE Fife since 1985 and has been a Councillor since 2003. He held

Posted in Selection news | Also tagged , and | 6 Comments

Cameron to “rule out second Lib-Con coalition” claims Telegraph. It may be a bluff but that doesn’t mean he won’t be forced to do it.

Today’s Telegraph splashes on the claim that David Cameron is preparing to rule out the possibility of a second Coalition with the Lib Dems if the Tories are the largest single party but lack a majority:

The Prime Minister wants to make a commitment in the Conservative Party election manifesto not to sign a second power-sharing deal with a smaller party in the event of a hung parliament next May, it is understood. Instead, a Conservative party that won the most seats but lacked a Commons majority would attempt to rule as a minority government, a course that would almost

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UPDATED: Full list of Lib Dems standing in our held seats and top 50 targets

We’re 15 months from the May 2015 election so here’s my latest running check on how candidate selection is going in our held and key target seats…

Lib Dems winning hereI published a first draft of this list at the start of October, and asked readers to help me update it. Many thanks to those of you who have helped me keep it updated, including the party’s Candidates Services Office. Here’s the latest version of the list of (re-)selections in our held seats and the top 50 targets for the party.

It’s a snapshot of how the party’s doing in getting people in place in the battleground seats that will determine the extent of Lib Dem influence in the next parliament:

Held seats: 45/57 MPs re-selected or candidates selected where MPs retiring (79%); 8/57 MPs retiring (14%) – 6 successors selected.

Top targets from Tories: 14/27 candidates selected (52%).

Top targets from Labour: 11/23 candidates selected (48%).

Posted in News | 8 Comments

Don Foster MP to stand down in 2015

One of the highlights of a dismal and disappointing election in 1992 was undoubtedly Don Foster’s election in Bath. He won the seat from then Tory party chairman Chris Patten.

Don has tonight announced that he won’t be standing in next year’s general election, it was in fact Jonathan Calder tweeted the news first, which led to me staking out Don’s Twitter and website looking for an announcement. When it came, it was on the Bath and North East Somerset website. Don Foster

After what will have been 23 wonderful years, this has been a very difficult decision to

Posted in News | Also tagged | 14 Comments

Alistair Carmichael reselected for Orkney and Shetland

AlistairCarmichaelIn news that will surprise nobody, but is worth recording anyway, the Orcadian reports Alistair Carmichael’s unanimous reselection to fight Orkney and Shetland in next year’s General Election:

I am delighted to be reselected as the Liberal Democrat candidate to stand as MP for 2015. I expect it to be a lively contest and I do not take continued support for granted.

I have been an MP for 12 and a half years and in that time the Northern Isles has truly become home. My wife and I have raised our family here and we have many roots in the community here in Orkney.

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LDVideo: BBC’s report on the Liberal Democrats’ secret weapon, featuring Stephen Tall

The BBC has been looking ahead to the Liberal Democrats’ prospects in next year’s General Election. Contributing to the report are retiring MP David Heath and our own Stephen Tall.

I should point out that our secret weapon is not Stephen’s famous pledge to run naked down Whitehall if the party is reduced to 24 seats next May.

You can watch the whole thing here.

Posted in News | Also tagged , and | 8 Comments

The battle for pensioners’ votes begins with Cameron on Liberal Democrat turf

The latest Ashcroft polling shows that the Conservatives have a long way to go to be within a shout of victory, with 37% of those who voted Tory saying at the moment that they would not do so if there were an election tomorrow. It’s hardly surprising, then, that David Cameron kicks off the next stage in the 2015 election campaign, in an interview with today’s Sunday Times (£), by pledging to stick to one of the Coalition’s most successful policies through another Parliament.

The Tories have previous for trying to claim the credit for a Liberal Democrat policy. Last …

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Opinion: Going it alone

BRITAIN POLITICS UK ELECTION CAMERON BECOMES PMAs the new year dawns there’s much press speculation about when the Liberal Democrats are going to cut and run from the Coalition and start campaigning for the next election.  At some point, of course, we are going to have to do this but having given an undertaking that we would work with the Tories for five years, that point I think should be quite late. But what we can do now is much more exciting.

We should declare that at the end of this coalition we shall not be entering into any further coalitions, either with the Tories or with Labour.  And we should do this as soon as possible.   We need to end this single-question politics of which way will the Liberal Democrats jump after the next election.  This would allow us to get on with explaining our policies and winning back our support.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 59 Comments

So, we might have Ed Balls in a Lab/Lib Dem coalition cabinet after all…

Interesting article in today’s Independent on Sunday quoting sources close to Nick Clegg that there will be no push for changes of personnel in Coalition negotiations after the 2015 election. This seems to me to be perfectly sensible. I always thought it was daft to demand that Gordon Brown go during the negotiations in 2010. You have to make these things about actual issues. Of course, this appears to be a pre-emptive strike to ensure that Nick Clegg’s head on a plate is not demanded by Labour.

There’s some interesting speculation on the policies up for grabs, too. Electoral reform …

Posted in News | Also tagged , and | 89 Comments

In the next month 10 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs (and one MSP)

Lib Dems winning hereHere’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications. They include Ming Campbell’s North East Fife seat.

The following seats have selections in progress and are currently advertising for candidates:

Posted in Selection news | 6 Comments

UPDATED: Full list of Lib Dems standing in our held seats and top 50 targets

We’re 18 months from the May 2015 election so I thought it’d be useful to keep a running check on how candidate selection is going in our held and key target seats…

I published a first draft of this list at the start of October, and asked readers to help me update it – many thanks to those of you who commented here, on Twitter, via Facebook and by email and text. Here’s the latest version of the list of (re-)selections in our held seats and the top 50 targets for the party — however, I realise we’ve just gone through AGM season so please do let me know of updates to this list.

It’s a snapshot of how the party’s doing in getting people in place in the battleground seats that will determine the extent of Lib Dem influence in the next parliament:

Held seats: 31/57 MPs re-selected or candidates selected where MPs retiring (40%); 7/57 MPs retiring (12%) – 3 potential successors selected.

Top targets from Labour: 8/23 candidates selected (35%).

Top targets from Tories: 14/27 candidates selected (52%).

Posted in News and Selection news | 29 Comments

Is Nick Harvey right that “Labour is on course to win the next election”?

Nick Harvey MPSir Nick Harvey, Lib Dem MP for North Devon (and former defence minister), has little doubt who’s going to win the next election, as he tells the Huffington Post:

… Harvey has a “clear sense” of what he thinks is going to happen. And even more than that, he is “astonished” that few others within the Westminster Village share his view.

“Stand fast a game changing event, which is always possible in the febrile political era in which we live, Labour is on course to win the next election,” he

Posted in News | Also tagged , and | 17 Comments

Nightmare scenarios: what are the 2015 election results the Lib Dems, Tories and Labour most dread?

clegg cameron milibandHere’s a cheerful topic for a Friday: what are the worst results you could imagine for each of the three main parties at the next general election?

Well, for the Lib Dems it’s obvious – we get mullered, reduced to 24 seats or fewer as predicted by Mori founder Bob Worcester. I don’t think things will be that bad, or anything like. For what it’s worth my current guesstimate would be in the range 35-45.

I don’t think that’s our nightmare scenario though. Don’t get me wrong, losing more …

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 61 Comments

UPDATED: Full list of Lib Dems standing in our held seats and top 50 targets

We’re 18 months from the May 2015 election so I thought it’d be useful to keep a running check on how candidate selection is going in our held and key target seats…

I published a first draft of this list a week ago, and asked readers to help me update it – many thanks to those of you who commented here, on Twitter, via Facebook and by email and text. I thought it would be helpful to re-publish the list now we have much fuller information about (re-)selections in our held seats and the top 50 targets for the party.

Here’s a snapshot of how the party’s doing in getting people in place in the battleground seats that will determine the extent of Lib Dem influence in the next parliament:

Held seats: 23/57 MPs re-selected (40%); 7/57 MPs retiring (12%) – 3 potential successors selected.

Top targets from Labour: 7/23 candidates selected (30%); 5/23 currently in process (22%). 52% will be selected within next couple of months.

Top targets from Tories: 12/27 candidates selected (44%); 2/27 currently in process (7%). 51% will be selected within next couple of months.

Posted in Selection news | 13 Comments

Full list of Lib Dems standing in our held seats and top 50 targets

We’re 18 months from the May 2015 election so I thought it’d be useful to keep a running check on how candidate selection is going in our held and key target seats…

Below is the list as I currently understand it. If I’ve missed re-selections of current MPs or selections in seats where our MPs are retiring or in our top 50 targets, do please say so in the comments and I’ll update the list.

Here’s the full list of the 57 MPs elected as Liberal Democrats in May 2010:

    Danny Alexander, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
    Norman Baker, Lewes
    Alan Beith, Berwick-upon-Tweed

Posted in News | Also tagged | 40 Comments

As David Heath stands down, local councillor Sam Phripp pays a personal tribute

On Friday night at a constituency meeting, David Heath, my MP, my boss and my friend told Liberal Democrats that he won’t be seeking re-election in 2015. I couldn’t honestly write down all the things that I was feeling then – sometimes we’re feeling too many things at the same time.

I wanted to write now and talk about the man that I know, and how him standing down will be a great personal loss so many people in Somerton and Frome.

To me, David Heath isn’t a politician, he’s the chap who knew instinctively to ask about my A-Level results …

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , and | 3 Comments

Julie Pörksen selected as Liberal Democrat candidate for Berwick

Julie PorksenJulie Pörksen will be the Liberal Democrat candidate for the Berwick constituency at the 2015 general election.

An agricultural economist, Julie grew up in Belsay, Northumberland. She was selected yesterday evening. Julie stood as a candidate in the Northumberland County Council elections last May, slashing the Tory majority in Amble West with Warkworth to one vote.

Sir Alan Beith is standing down at the next election after 40 years as Berwick’s MP.

Posted in News | 9 Comments

Bob Russell reselected for Colchester

sir-bob-russell-mp-in-the-commons-smallSir Bob Russell, MP for Colchester, has been unanimously re-selected in a ballot of Colchester Liberal Democrats.

Sir Bob was elected to the Commons in 1997, and re-elected in 2001, 2005 and 2010, each time with an increased majority. In 2010, he commanded a majority of nearly 7,000 over the Conservatives.

He told the East Anglian Daily Times that  he wants to “quash rumours” that he will be standing down and has announced that he will be seeking re-election in 2015.

Posted in News | 2 Comments

Conference Comment: Is Nick Clegg “worse than Michael Foot”?

Michael FootIf you only read the Independent, it would be grim news. The paper reports that Lord Oakeshott popped his head above the parapet to tell Parliament’s The House magazine that Nick Clegg is “worse than Michael Foot”.

We have to accept that Nick’s ratings have been poor and have been for a long time. You’ve got to be frank that his ratings are down at levels which, if you go back, were only seen by Mrs Thatcher shortly before she left and Michael Foot.

Well, that’s his view and the Telegraph’s venerable Benedict Brogan dismisses it outright:

His views have been discounted to irrelevance from over-use. We’ve heard it all before, from him.

Posted in News and Op-eds | Also tagged | 116 Comments

Sir Malcolm Bruce MP to stand down in 2015

Malcolm announcement croppedSir Malcolm Bruce, speaking exclusively to the local newspaper in his Gordon constituency, has announced that he will be stepping down as MP for he seat he has represented for 30 years at the next General Election.

He told the Press and Journal:

I’d rather go when I’m fit, active, effective and, I hope, still enjoying it.

I think I’m going to feel quite liberated but I want people to know that I’m not retiring right now, I’m just announcing that I’m not going to stand at the next election. I’ll

Posted in News | Also tagged , , and | 2 Comments

New Statesman staggers over Lib Dem funding

In a staggering piece on the New Statesman website today, blogger George Eaton – writing The Staggers column – claims that the Lib Dem’s “mounting debts” will force the party to end the coalition ahead of the 2015 general election. Really?

The argument is presented that because the party is running a deficit, it cannot fight the election without the Short Money paid to opposition parties. Really?

The source of this idea appears to be “several in Westminster” – not necessarily Lib Dems, or even people who are well informed.

The author seems not to recognise the absurdity – in public …

Posted in News | Also tagged | 8 Comments

Nick, we’re not a bunch of unrealistic hippies desperate for opposition, you know…..

While I broadly agree with Stephen Tall that Nick Clegg’s speech to the Liberal Democrat local government conference in Manchester yesterday had much that was on the right track, I do wish Nick could frame his remarks without it looking like he’s taking a good old swipe at Liberal Democrat members and activists. Stephen says that’s how you get the journalists interested. The trouble is that some of the people who are offended by that kind of talk may be too angry to read behind the headlines – and these are exactly the people that Nick needs to help …

Posted in News | Also tagged , and | 72 Comments

‘Red lines’ v ‘a long shopping list’: Clegg sets out plan for slimline 2015 manifesto

Nick Clegg will be speaking today at the party’s local government conference in Manchester (Nick Thornsby will be covering it throughout the day here on LDV) and The Independent is one of the newspapers which trails what he’ll say.

Here’s my quick take on the top lines on which they’ve been pre-briefed…

The Deputy Prime Minister will take on his internal party critics by demanding a slimline manifesto at the 2015 election setting out the Lib Dems’ non-negotiable “red lines” in another coalition rather than a long shopping list of policies.

There’s been much discussion recently about ‘red lines’ in …

Posted in News | Also tagged , , and | 70 Comments

David Laws to chair 2015 Manifesto Working Group

It’s now official: Lib Dem schools minister David Laws will chair the party’s Manifesto Working Group. Lib Dem MP Duncan Hames, who chairs the party’s Federal Policy Committee, has just emailed members with the following message:

Last night at the party’s Federal Policy Committee we agreed Nick Clegg’s nomination of David Laws MP to Chair the Manifesto Working Group for the next General Election. Alongside David, we also appointed two Vice-Chairs – Sharon Bowles MEP and Duncan Brack – and nine further members of the group.

The Manifesto Working Group reports to the Federal Policy Committee, which has responsibility for preparing the

Posted in News | Also tagged , and | 42 Comments

Paddy Ashdown: “The time for action is imminent”

Paddy Ashdown video screenshotIf you thought Paddy Ashdown had been a bit quiet since he was appointed General Election chair, then I can confidently predict that our time of peace is soon to come to an end. Have a good break this Christmas, Liberal Democrat activist, because if our energetic peer has his way, it’ll be the last chance you get until May 7 2015.

He emailed members yesterday to let them know 3 things.

Posted in General Election and News | Also tagged , , and | 2 Comments

Opinion: With all constituencies declared, Labour has an overall majority

No, I didn’t just get in a muddle about what year we’re in.  But the collapse of Lords Reform has brought us, inevitably, to this point. Labour will win the next election with an overall majority.

Three years may be long enough for anything to happen. But consider this: it is hard to see the Conservative vote in 2015 being an increase on their 2010 showing. Since 2010 we’ve had the Euro crisis, George Osborne’s U-turn fest, a healthy reminder of the symbiotic relationship between the Murdoch empire and the Tory party and the longest recession in more than 50

Posted in Op-eds | 46 Comments



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarThomas Robinson 19th Apr - 4:19pm
    RC I would say you absolutely own the illogical stance. Of course England would not be bothered at all if a non-NATO Scotland was invaded...
  • User AvatarMark Valladares 19th Apr - 4:08pm
    @ Rabi, I did, less than four months ago, and nothing has happened since then to change my views on the subject. http://www.libdemvoice.org/2014-looking-for-a-dark-horse-or-a-safe-pair-of-hands-37695.html Here's something...
  • User AvatarTracy 19th Apr - 4:06pm
    I agree with Stephen Howse! I do hope we have a wide selection of candidates, including men!
  • User AvatarRabi Martins 19th Apr - 3:49pm
    @ MarkValladeres " I’ll be watching to see if any of the candidates show signs of understanding what is necessary to put up a good...
  • User AvatarStuart Wheatcroft 19th Apr - 3:45pm
    Nick Clegg isn't running for Party President.
  • User AvatarRadical Liberal 19th Apr - 3:26pm
    Stephen Howse writes 'Far too polarising a figure'. But, of course, Clegg isn't. One rule for the right wing leadership, another rule for everyone else...