Tag Archives: mike smithson

Six months from 7th May 2015: how the polls are looking and what to look for

There are three key things about opinion polls.

The first is what matters are trends, not individual poll fluctuations.

The second is they’re snapshots, not forecasts. (A point made by Lord Ashcroft, to his credit, every time he publishes his latest poll finding.)

The third is the next general election won’t be decided by national party vote shares but by who wins in 650 individual seats. (A point often made by PoliticalBetting’s Mike Smithson.)

Here are the trends…

Here’s a graph which focuses solely on the first of these. It shows the result of every single opinion poll – courtesy Mark Pack’s invaluable spreadsheet – in the 12 months from October 2013 to September 2014 (incl.):

poll trends 2014

Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , , and | 69 Comments

The Lib Dems’ ‘bedroom tax’ U-turn: new poll on what the voters think about it

Spare Bedroom Photo by Flack JackThe Lib Dems announced a few days ago the party’s 2015 manifesto would propose reform of the ‘bedroom tax’ / ‘spare room subsidy’, which would means no tenant would have any of their housing benefit withdrawn unless they had turned down an offer of a smaller property.

It was a long overdue climbdown – as I wrote in April 2013: “The principle of the ‘bedroom tax’, then — to try and maximise the availability of social housing and reduce the chronic waiting lists — is

Posted in News and Polls | Also tagged , and | 15 Comments

What links Jeremy Hunt and Peter Lilley? (Tip: If you’re not sure who they are, that’s the clue.)

Who’s the most famous cabinet minister? And who’s the least famous? That’s what YouGov set out to find out by inviting its representative sample of the public to type in the name, unprompted, of the post-holder of six senior cabinet positions. Here’s what they found…

identifiable cabinet ministers - yougov

So Iain Duncan Smith (36% correctly naming him as Work and Pensions secretary) and Jeremy Hunt (28% as health secretary) are the least famous cabinet members. Though, to be honest – like John Rentoul and with due respect to Mike Smithson …

Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , , , and | 4 Comments

Four-in-10 voters would never consider voting for the Lib Dems – but it’s not all bad news…

Some interesting poll data from Ipsos-Mori who were asked by British Future to look at attitudes towards voting for the four main political parties. Here’s three points that stood out for the Lib Dems:

  • Four-in-10 voters would never consider voting for the Lib Dems, Conservatives or Ukip. Labour is less unpopular: one-in-three voters would never consider voting Labour.
  • Lib Dem supporter are the most anti-Ukip: 62% say they would never consider voting Ukip. This compares with 43% of Lib Dems saying they would never consider voting Conservative, and 38% saying they would never vote for Labour.
  • The feelings mutual… Ukip supporters
  • Posted in Polls | Also tagged and | 4 Comments

    So you think Ukip are the new third party? Let’s have a look at the data…

    Food for thought for John Rentoul (who calls Ukip ‘The new third party’ here), courtesy of PoliticalBetting’s Mike Smithson:

    (Hat-tip: Vote Clegg, Get Clegg Facebook page.)

    Posted in News | Also tagged , and | 101 Comments

    The Lib Dem vote share: not always the best guide to how successful the Lib Dems have been…

    An important point, with graph to match, from PoliticalBetting’s Mike Smithson:

    To illustrate the point further:

    Posted in News | Also tagged and | 29 Comments

    Blog of the Year Awards 2011: The Winners #LDBOTY

    What’s loosely termed the awards “ceremony” for the 2011 Liberal Democrat Blog of the Year Awards has just drawn to a glittering close. As the last firework fades in Birmingham’s night sky, I’m delighted to announce the winners:

    Posted in Best of the blogs | Also tagged , , , , and | 1 Comment
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    Recent Comments

    • User Avatarethicsgradient 9th Dec - 7:45am
      Labour are in line for a monumental collapse at the next election. They have lost a deposit in a strong Remain area, they are fourth...
    • User AvatarPaul Williams 9th Dec - 7:24am
      Well done Ross and the team for your efforts. Almost doubling our vote share, was a tremendous performance, and demonstrates, in this heavily Conservative seat...
    • User AvatarMatthew Huntbach 9th Dec - 6:28am
      David Evans But then you spoiled it by saying “My belief is that confused by a torrent of dubious facts from both sides a significant...
    • User AvatarDavid Blake 9th Dec - 5:15am
      Congratulations to Ross Pepper and his team. The biggest concern is the turnout. To think that less than 4 in 10 of the people thought...
    • User AvatarMark Goodrich 9th Dec - 3:49am
      With reference to my earlier comment and seeing the result, I don't think UKIP can really claim to be happy either. Vote share down in...
    • User AvatarDavid Evans 9th Dec - 3:31am
      ... and Congratulations to Ross and the Lib Dem Team.