Tag Archives: Mitt Romney

The Independent View: A reply to Mark Pack from Obama’s Director of Data

The Crystal Ball chart blogged by Mark Pack highlights the interesting cases of Alaska and Utah. These outliers make sense given the dynamics of the race (the large Mormon population in UT provided a boost to Romney while the absence of Sarah Palin from the ballot hurt Republican performance in AK relative to 2008). But why do we not see more turbulence in the battleground states?  Surely the gobs of money spent in these states along with the monumental ground efforts of the Obama campaign would push these states away from the crowd? The answer to this apparent disconnect …

Posted in LDVUSA, Op-eds and The Independent View | Also tagged and | 5 Comments

What does the data show about the Obama campaign’s use of data?

So far, there has been a weird paradox at the heart of the coverage about the Obama 2012 campaign machine. On the one hand we’re all meant to be impressed by how it was based on data and analysis, honing campaign techniques and targeting activity based on what the data said. On the other hand, we’re meant to take it all on trust (or trust plus bucketloads of anecdotes; i.e. trust) that this hard-nosed, evidence-based approach to campaigning worked. Where’s the evidence that the reliance on evidence really worked?

There’s been remarkably little presented. Which is why the following graph is so

Posted in LDVUSA | Also tagged and | 7 Comments

Romney’s polling day technology meltdown: Orca

The usual post-electoral defeat search for explanations and people to blame has an added edge for the Republicans after Mitt Romney’s defeat earlier this month. Not only did Romney lose, he lost in all the states that were picked as being in serious contention, the Republicans actually lost ground in the Senate (when they had hopes of making gains) and the initial voting analysis shows the Republicans with a big problem: the parts of the electorate that are growing are the parts which vote against them the most heavily.

Posted in Campaign Corner and Online politics | Also tagged , and | 6 Comments

Opinion: US Elections – I’m not one to gloat, but….

I am still musing on what a wonderful night it was on Tuesday into Wednesday. I stayed up all night until I finally threw in the towel at 6.45am. It was a bit tedious at first, but it got really exciting at around 3am.

Over the last few weeks, I have been a very regular visitor to FiveThirtyEight, the home of Nate Silver. So, perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised that the man’s forecasts have turned out to be right.

Posted in LDVUSA | Also tagged , and | 8 Comments

LibLink: Mark Pack’s five lessons from the US election

I’ve long suspected that the Voice’s Mark Pack doesn’t need to sleep and his clear thinking after a long electoral night kind of backs up my theory. As my neural pathways crumble from lack of sleep, he has already put together five lessons we should learn from both Obama’s win and Romney’s loss.

He talks about the important of the non white male vote. While Romney might have done well amongst white men, he lost many other important groups of voters, including women, who make up the majority.

Mark also made a good point about the many emails which came out of …

Posted in LibLink and Online politics | Also tagged , , and | 6 Comments

#LDVUSA – Three nifty ways to help make sense of tonight’s election results

It can often be a mathematical nightmare trying to work out who’s winning as US Presidential Election night progresses. Sometimes, some poor souls even end up having to rely on David Dimbleby to explain what’s going on! Poor things!

Here are three nifty tools to help you make sense of what is happening tonight:

Posted in LDVUSA | Also tagged and | 4 Comments

LibLink: Sarah Ludford MEP – ‘US Presidential Election – What will be the impact on EU/US relations?’

Over at the Endeavours Public Affairs blog, Lib Dem MEP for London Sarah Ludford looks at this Tuesday’s presidential election and what it means for Europe. Here’s an excerpt:

The Obama administration has in any case been perceived as not very interested in Europe, except as a source of financial and economic worry, with a strategic shift of US focus to the Asia-Pacific region distracting from relations with the EU. It’s a sobering cause for reflection that neither candidate has talked about Europe in their campaigns, even in the televised debate devoted to foreign affairs.

Posted in LibLink | Also tagged , and | 2 Comments
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    The verb is "to soft-pedal" not "to soft-peddle." It is a metaphor taken from piano playing, where one of the pedals can be used to...
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    Michael BG - We should NOT take orders from UKIP. It is our decision how we react and what we campaign for. We should take...
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    Nick Collins was referring to this particular Trump-owned golf course, which was built, over the objections of the local council, on top of a formerly...
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    Good lord the neo-puritans want us to feel guilty about playing golf now. What's next?
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    As I recall the EFTA was actually set up by the UK after DeGaulle said non. He said that Britain was too internationalist and independent...
  • User AvatarMichael BG 25th Jun - 12:09am
    @ Laurence Cox I think you have missed my point. Having 71,111 electors per MP is a major factor in the failure of our representative...