Tag Archives: nate silver

Review: Nate Silver at the Edinburgh Book Festival

Nate SilverNate Silver grabbed the headlines  last year when he correctly predicted the outcome of the US presidential election in all 50 states when other commentators were expecting a dead heat. Since then, he has sold his fivethirtyeight blog to ESPN and will continue to edit it, expanding it to become, he hopes, the “go to point for data driven journalists.” It will also give him the chance to  do political punditry for ABC News.

He came to the Edinburgh Book Festival earlier this week to talk about his book The …

Posted in News | Also tagged , and | 2 Comments

Opinion polls yadda yadda. OR “Does Nate Silver mean nothing to you? Did he write in vain?”

Two new polls last night: the daily YouGov tracker and the first post-local elections poll from Survation. The spread is interesting:

    Labour: 35% (Survation 39% (YouGov)
    Conservatives: 24% (S), 31% (YG)
    Lib Dems: 11% (S), 10% (YG)
    Ukip: 22% (S), 14% (YG)

As Anthony Wells points out, Survation asks whether people will vote Ukip (most other firms just ask about the main three parties and ‘Others’) so usually gets the highest Ukip poll numbers. This latest survey is in line with the bounce other firms have shown and which the perceived winner of an election often records.

Unsurprisingly, it’s Survation’s poll which has attracted most interest because it shows a gap if just 2% between the Tories and Ukip. Cue cries of ‘Tory meltdown!, ‘Cameron in crisis!’ and every other journalistic cliche.

At the risk of precipitating on the parade of those who love nothing better than to indulge in over-excited hyper-speculation, can I make the following point. Or rather can I ask the following question: Does Nate Silver mean nothing to you? Did he write in vain?

Posted in Op-eds and Polls | Also tagged , , and | 24 Comments

Your essential weekend reader — 12 must-read articles you may have missed

It’s Saturday evening, so here are twelve thought-provoking articles to stimulate your thinking juices culled from the 50+ I’ve linked to this last week. You can follow me on Delicious here.

Kings, queens and the political chess match – Sue Cameron ponders what the invitation to HM The Queen to attend cabinet this week could portend: ‘Charles III might point to that precedent and say he would like to follow it. Moreover, he would like to attend more regularly and speak at it …

Posted in News | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , and | 2 Comments

Why there isn’t a British Nate Silver

A skim-read of Wednesday morning’s headlines might have left folk confused as to who had been declared the victor of the US presidential election: Barack Obama or Nate Silver.

For those who don’t know Nate Silver, he’s the analytical guru behind the FiveThirtyEight blog (named after the number of electoral college votes), now housed at the New York Times, which scrutinises and filters opinion polls. He first rose to prominence four years ago after predicting the winner in 49 of the 50 US states during the Obama-McCain presidential contest, …

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , and | 17 Comments

One last polling prediction (and it shows Lib Dems with over 100 MPs)

Just two hours until the exit polls have their say, but if you can’t wait for that … Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com site has run through pretty much every poll result permutation to come up with a range of projections as to how the House of Commons will look on 7th May.

Here’s their official final projection, which shows the Lib Dems in second place by the slimmest of margins (but of course with half the number of Labour MPs) – and the Tories likely to end up running …

Posted in General Election | Leave a comment

Pollwatch Day 21 #GE2010 – Lib Dems in second place, at 28-31%, in today’s polls

Four polls published tonight, as follows:

    ICM in the Guardian … CON 33%(-2), LAB 28%(+2), LIB DEM 30%(-1)
    Opinium in the Express … CON 34%(+2), LAB 25%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(-1)
    ComRes for ITV/Independent … CON 32%(-2), LAB 28%(nc), LIB DEM 31%(+2)
    YouGov in the Sun … CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(-1)

All movement is within the margin of error, and the degree of stability in the polls is striking: the Tories are at 32-34%, Lib Dems at 28-31% and Labour at 25-28%. Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ shows the Lib Dems edging up:

    CON 33%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 30%

It …

Posted in General Election and Polls | Also tagged and | 5 Comments
Advert



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarPeter Watson 25th May - 10:14am
    It's interesting that discussion on this thread has drifted towards a discussion of censorship on the site. For some reason the current thread on Alistair...
  • User AvatarSara Scarlett 25th May - 10:12am
    Whilst I completely understand the sentiment of this post, one of the ways this party has gone badly, badly wrong is by thinking of itself...
  • User AvatarMichael Hall 25th May - 10:10am
    @Alex Dingwall I do not believe that Alistair's actions were in breach of the standards we expect of those in public life. I understand that...
  • User AvatarJohn Roffey 25th May - 10:09am
    Tim13 25th May '15 - 9:59am "in order to move on to a balanced globalisation" How can this be achieved when there is no global...
  • User AvatarTCO 25th May - 10:07am
    @Tim 13 "I fully agree with Stephen Hesketh’s implication that the Preamble did not envisage this “economic liberalism” as compatible with the aims of the...
  • User Avatarbob sayer 25th May - 10:06am
    To identify any in dividual is unrealistic as it is silly. The party will no doubt,to the delight and involvement of a minority of navel...
Mon 25th May 2015
12:05
Tue 26th May 2015
Wed 27th May 2015
Thu 28th May 2015
Fri 29th May 2015
19:30
Sat 30th May 2015
Sun 31st May 2015
Mon 1st Jun 2015
Wed 3rd Jun 2015
Thu 4th Jun 2015
Sat 6th Jun 2015
Wed 10th Jun 2015
Thu 11th Jun 2015
19:00
Fri 12th Jun 2015
Sat 13th Jun 2015
Wed 17th Jun 2015
Thu 18th Jun 2015
Sat 20th Jun 2015
Sun 21st Jun 2015