Tag Archives: opinion polls

Tim Farron tops the leaders’ popularity poll

IPSOS-MORI have released their monthly Political Monitor and it has a double dose of good news for the Liberal Democrats.

This is probably the month in which Tim Farron has had the most exposure since his election as leader. His speech in the Syria debate was highly commended and he’s been on both Have I Got News for You and Russell Howard’s Good News. The fact that he’s ended up as the most popular leader in Britain speaks for itself. Before we all get too excited. his rating is only -7, compared to Cameron’s -14 Corbyn’s -15 and Farage’s -15, but he has a lot of don’t knows, 45%, to win over.

Posted in News | Also tagged | 3 Comments

Lib Dems on 22% in ICM poll – from our archive

Liberal Democrat Voice has a fantastic archive of posts going back to our establishment in 2006. Here’s an interesting article from our Founding Editor, which was published in October 2006. You can read the post in its original form, with the title “There is no news today”, with comments, here. Rob, our Founding Editor, made a thing about not writing about polls. So, in his amusing way, he didn’t do this poll, but, er, he did do it. Anyway, it is quite eye-watering to look back and see us on 22%!

Guardian 3There is no news today on account of the fact that I do not do polls.

Someone do something. Please.

Posted in From the LDV Archive | 12 Comments

#Libdemfightback: What do the polls say?

Obviously we’re all a little wary of using the polls since the General Election, but it should be remembered that while the polls then underestimated the Tories and over-estimated Labour, they got our tiny percentage pretty much spot on. The only problem was that, because the Tory vote was higher in actuality than predicted, that we ended up losing a few more Tory/LD marginals than we’d ever expected to.

But Pollsters have been amending their weighting…and the ‘Shy Tory Voter’ doesn’t really seem to exist anymore. They’re out and proud! So I’ve been having a look at what the polls have been predicting for a General Election  held today.

The Method

My reading of the polls uses averages to fill in the gaps on the days when there aren’t polls, and then to run seven day rolling figures based on both those averages and the polls themselves.

The model I use is modelled heavily on that of Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus model, as featured often in the press. The idea is that one takes the ‘base’ vote of each constituency (i.e. Southport 2010 36% Con, 9% Lab, 50% LD etc), place that against the GE figure for that year (i.e. 37 Con, 30 Lab, 24 LD) and then see how the constituency figure moves with regards to latest polling (i.e. the final poll pre 2015 GE of 33 Con, 33 Lab and 9 LD) and then see how the initial constituency figure moves (in this case to 33 Con, 12 Lab and 35 LD) thus showing how John Pugh kept his seat.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 24 Comments

Opinion: Has the polling got out of hand?

May2015In this run up to the election we have been bombarded with opinion polls on who is going to win the election – or not to win it, as it now seems.  Looking at the May2015.com website, which tracks polling results, in the month to 18th April, 53 polls were published, an average of almost two a day. On 9th April for example five separate polls were published. I don’t know if the same people have been asked several times, but the results seem amazingly consistent!

I, like some others, have some concerns about this plethora of polls. Firstly, if two or three polls are published every day, quite frankly, what is the point? They completely lose their impact and are quickly discounted because new opinion polls – and betting odds! – appear the very next day.

Posted in Op-eds | 22 Comments

Nick Clegg top British politician in Mumsnet poll

Nick Clegg is the leading British politician on a Mumsnet poll. Sadly, it’s not for voting intention. The Mirror has the story:

Over at Mumsnet, one user started a thread asking “Am I being unreasonable to ask which politician would make the best lover?” There were over 400 replies and we added up the mentions of each name for you. The results are in…

American President Barack Obama beat all local politicians to come out top with 22 votes.

Nick “Clegg-over” Clegg makes a close second, showing he’s kept his sex appeal since 2010 despite the battering his political reputation has taken.

Perennial sex favourite Gordon Brown (he’s Scottish, the accent is kind of sexy) is third.

Posted in News | Also tagged and | 9 Comments

Opinion: it’s no good counting on those rose-tinted spectacles

We’re a generally an optimistic lot aren’t we, looking on the brighter side when the world and his wife thinks we should be walking around with our heads in our hands. I even wrote a piece about how genuinely cheerful we are for the New Statesman the other day…

But whisper it gently… and just between us… you don’t think we’re fooling ourselves do you?

I say this because we seem to be taking it as read that the mid term polls are generally where we are now. “It’s always this bad’ seems to be the general gist…

Problem is – it’s …

Posted in Op-eds | 150 Comments

Why there isn’t a British Nate Silver

A skim-read of Wednesday morning’s headlines might have left folk confused as to who had been declared the victor of the US presidential election: Barack Obama or Nate Silver.

For those who don’t know Nate Silver, he’s the analytical guru behind the FiveThirtyEight blog (named after the number of electoral college votes), now housed at the New York Times, which scrutinises and filters opinion polls. He first rose to prominence four years ago after predicting the winner in 49 of the 50 US states during the Obama-McCain presidential contest, …

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , and | 17 Comments
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Recent Comments

  • User AvatarStevan Rose 29th Aug - 3:26pm
    "Extraordinary stats, Stevan. Where are they from? " You requoted the source... they're votes. We had that referendum, the public thought they voted on the...
  • User Avatartonyhill 29th Aug - 3:15pm
    I like your analogy with the phone war, Caron, except that in 1940 no one thought that everything was going to come out all right,...
  • User AvatarChris Burden 29th Aug - 3:08pm
    @ Stevan Rose "60% of the population are not interested in the voting system. Two thirds of those that are interested prefer FPTP. We had...
  • User AvatarAl 29th Aug - 3:07pm
    But isn't the referendum a once in a generation thing? Don't you have to shut up, eat your cereal and accept the result so that...
  • User AvatarLorenzo Cherin 29th Aug - 3:00pm
    James King You speak such real sense ! My point is that we can agree with each other without alienating other members who are actually...
  • User Avatarpaul barker 29th Aug - 2:58pm
    I completely agree with Caron on this, our position should be unambiguous. I havent left Open Britain because they seem to be saying that they...