Tag Archives: recession

Opinion: Why cutting later would increase the chances of a double-dip recession

By David Thorpe | Published 23rd July 2011 - 2:52 pm

About the only thing to emerge during Ed Miliband’s time as Labour Leader so far, which could be called a policy, is the belief that the cuts the coalition are implementing are being delivered “too fast and too deep.”

Essentially Labour are saying they would cut by less and later. The purpose of this article is to discuss the “too fast” part of this argument.

The first six months of the coalition’s time in office saw higher than expected growth and higher than expected inflation. Neither of these were really caused by anything the coalition did in those six months, rather …

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Opinion: Latest consumer data shows new ‘growth strategy’ is not needed

By David Thorpe | Published 15th February 2011 - 3:47 pm

The advent of 24 hour news channels has led to the media creating a fresh conventional wisdom with every new day.

They started by highlighting the dangers of a double dip recession because the government would cut too fast and too deep. Now, that’s something which Ed Milliband doesn’t even believe if you give credence to his recent appearance on the Andrew Marr Programme.

When the media were airing the cuts too fast argument, I indicated that the danger facing the economy over the medium term would come from inflation.

When the media turned its fire on the danger of inflation, and …

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Vince on 0.2% growth: “the promised recovery is barely visible”

By The Voice | Published 23rd April 2010 - 9:15 pm

It’s official: the UK economy has enjoyed a second quarter of growth, as the BBC reports:

The UK economy continued to recover from recession in the first three months of the year, according to official estimates. GDP grew by 0.2% between January and March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Here’s what Lib Dem shadow chancellor Vince Cable had to say – in text:

These figures show that the promised recovery is barely visible. There is a real danger of the UK going into a double dip recession. As people deal with their own debts and as the banks continue to

…

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Should this poll result worry us?

By Stephen Tall | Published 26th March 2010 - 6:45 pm

Today’s BBC Daily Politics / ComRes poll asking which of the three major parties’ leadership teams is more trusted to steer the economy through the current downturn has caused a bit of a stir – it shows Labour’s duumvirate of Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling out ahead of the Tories, an about-turn on three months ago.

Here are the results:

    Putting your party allegiance aside, who do you trust most to steer Britain’s economy through the current downturn?
    Gordon Brown & Alistair Darling 33% (+7% on Dec 2009)
    David Cameron & George Osborne 27% (-6%)
    Nick Clegg & Vince Cable 13% (-6%)
    Don’t know

…

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Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , | 11 Comments

Nick calls for cross-party Council of Financial Stability

By Stephen Tall | Published 22nd March 2010 - 10:35 pm

Hmmm, well I have my doubts about this one. Not the idea: that’s obvious and right. Of course we need to build political consensus in order to carry through the tough spending cuts any party (or parties) which finds itself in government will have to implement.

Only myopic Labour/Tory tribalists will try and pretend a government with the support of one-in-five of the electorate can decimate (in that word’s literal sense) public spending to bring the deficit under control with any kind of legitimacy.

No, the problem I have with Nick Clegg’s idea is this: the name, ‘Council of Financial …

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Vince lays down the gauntlet to Alex Salmond

By The Voice | Published 8th March 2010 - 9:45 pm

Lib Dem shadow chancellor, Vince Cable tonight addressed Reform Scotland on the action that needs to be taken to reform banking and protect the economic recovery. LDV is publishing extracts from Vince’s speech, below, including his call to SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond to follow the Lib Dems’ lead and state clearly how the Scottish government will live within its budget in the years ahead:

Banking
We need to rethink our approach to banking. Successive Labour and Conservative Governments have left Britain vulnerable to an over-inflated financial services sector, where institutions became too big to fail.

On a UK level – where British banks are 4.5 times bigger in terms of their liabilities than the country’s economy – this is bad enough. But in Scotland, this has been still more pronounced. At the time they got into trouble, RBS’ and HBOS’ liabilities were 25 times the size of Scotland’s economy.

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LibLink: Giles Wilkes – The hidden cost of quantitative easing

By NewsHound | Published 3rd March 2010 - 6:45 pm

Over at The Guardian’s Comment Is Free website, Lib Dem blogger Giles Wilkes – liberal think-tank Centre Forum‘s award-winning chief economist – argues that though quantitative easing was needed to prevent financial collapse, it has made the rich richer, and taxpayers will foot the bill for growing inequality. Here’s an excerpt (but NewsHound does recommend you read the full article to enjoy Giles’s imagined budget speech of a year ago):

QE was the right thing to do: it may become the most significant step that Labour took to fight recession. … [it] quite possibly averted an outcome far worse: an

…

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Vince: “Labour and the Tories are accusing each other of being confused and contradictory on the economy, and they’re both right.”

By Stephen Tall | Published 1st February 2010 - 2:35 pm

Attack is the best form of defence, I guess, so it’s no surprise that the Tories – seriously on the back-foot since it became clear that David Cameron and George Osborne haven’t got a clue what they plan to do about the deficit – have launched a broadside against Labour. With Peter Mandelson using a press conference this morning to accuse the Tories of “confusion and disarray”, the Tories have accused Labour of being “in chaos”.

So far, so yawn. Or as Vince Cable put it today:

Labour and the Tories are accusing each other of being confused and contradictory

…

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Vince on 0.1% growth: “We are not out of the woods yet”

By The Voice | Published 26th January 2010 - 11:03 am

So, it’s official: the UK has at last emerged from the most sever recession in 90 years … just. Figures released today show the economy grew by 0.1% in the last three months of 2009, lower than many analysts had predicted, says the BBC.

Here’s what Lib Dem shadow chancellor Vince Cable had to say:

The markets will be surprised that growth has been markedly slower than expected. Far from the quick recovery the Chancellor has been praying for, the economy is only just staggering back into growth.
 
“The British economy has had the economic equivalent of a heart attack

…

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Daily View 2×2: 25 January 2010

By Stephen Tall | Published 25th January 2010 - 10:00 am

Happy Monday morning, everyone. Let’s get straight down to business …

2 Must-Read Blog Posts

What are other Liberal Democrat bloggers saying? Here’s are two posts that have caught the eye from the Liberal Democrat Blogs aggregator:

…

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When should the state intervene? RBS, Kraft & Cadbury and the Eternal Liberal Dilemma

By Stephen Tall | Published 21st January 2010 - 7:00 pm

US firm Kraft’s proposed takeover of Cadbury’s has made headlines in recent days. First, because it’s a major, historic British brand being snapped-up by a non-UK business (or ‘foreign predator’, as Vince Cable labels them). Secondly, because of the fear that job losses will result. And, thirdly, because of the role of the Royal Bank of Scotland – in which the British government has a majority stake-holding – in lending the money to Kraft which will fund its acquisition of Cadbury’s.

The Lib Dems – in the shape of Nick Clegg and Vince – have sharply questioned the role of the Government in the takeover. At Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday, Nick asked Gordon Brown:

… there is a simple principle at stake. Tens of thousands of British companies are crying out for that money to protect jobs, and instead RBS wants to lend it to a multinational with a record of cutting jobs. When British taxpayers bailed out the banks, they would never have believed that their money would be used to put British people out of work. Is that not just plain wrong?

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Posted in Op-eds, PMQs | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments

Daily View 2×2: 18 January 2010

By Stephen Tall | Published 18th January 2010 - 9:35 am

Happy Monday morning, everyone.

On this day, in 1788, Britain established a penal settlement at Botany Bay in Australia; while, in 1903, President Theodore Roosevelt sent the first transatlantic radio transmission originating in the United States to King Edward VII. Even more excitingly, it’s the birthday of AA Milne (b. 1882), Oliver ‘Laurel &’ Hardy (b. 1892), Cary Grant (b. 1904) and Peter Beardsley (b. 1961).

But without further tarrying …

2 Must-Read Blog Posts

What are other Liberal Democrat bloggers saying? Here’s are two posts that have caught the eye from the Liberal Democrat Blogs aggregator:

  • Holyrood: The Budget Battleground (Caron Lindsay)

    The first act of the budget drama plays out this week. Let’s hope that the process is more serious production and less pantomime farce.

  • A couple of classy links (Alix Mortimer)

    I once saw a blogger, a smart, impassioned, left-wing blogger, comment to the effect that his £40,000-odd salary was not that high.

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LibLink … Vince Cable: Hard hats on, here comes the Rotten Election

By NewsHound | Published 27th December 2009 - 1:40 pm

Over at the Mail today, Lib Dem deputy leader Vince Cable anticipates a year of fevered political battle, and issues a call for a reformed political system and a grown-up debate. Here’s an excerpt:

Once the seasonal festivities are out of the way, the public will be on the receiving end of months of sustained political bombardment over the airwaves and through the letterbox until a General Election puts an end to it. As someone who will be firing a lot of the ammunition, I am ready for this battle but I am conscious that the old rules no longer apply.

…

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LibLink … Chris Huhne: These mystery men can break governments

By NewsHound | Published 14th December 2009 - 4:30 pm

Lib Dem shadow home secretary Chris Huhne has an article in today’s Times noting that how much it costs the Treasury to borrow money depends on three ratings agencies … and asks the crucial question: are they fit to wield this power?

Chris’s credential for writing an article outside his brief? Well, he founded the sovereign group at Fitch Ratings, and was group managing director. Here’s an excerpt:

Last week Moody’s — one of the big three international ratings agencies — warned that the UK’s top bond rating would be under threat if Britain failed to sort out its public finances

…

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Vince Double-Bill: PBR video response and LibLink Times article

By NewsHound | Published 10th December 2009 - 11:05 am

Here’s the video response Lib Dem shadow chancellor Vince Cable recorded yesterday in response to Alistair Darling’s Pre-Budget Report yesterday. (It is him, promise: you can make out the outline of his hat in the evening gloom – it might be worth filming Vince nearer a street-lamp next time.)

(Hat-tip: the Lib Dems’ ACT website).

Vince also appeared in yesterday’s Times, which the Voice failed to cover yesterday, arguing that Alistair Darling would have done better to model his PBR on one of his predecessors, Roy Jenkins. …

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