Tag Archives: survation

Opinion polls yadda yadda. OR “Does Nate Silver mean nothing to you? Did he write in vain?”

Two new polls last night: the daily YouGov tracker and the first post-local elections poll from Survation. The spread is interesting:

    Labour: 35% (Survation 39% (YouGov)
    Conservatives: 24% (S), 31% (YG)
    Lib Dems: 11% (S), 10% (YG)
    Ukip: 22% (S), 14% (YG)

As Anthony Wells points out, Survation asks whether people will vote Ukip (most other firms just ask about the main three parties and ‘Others’) so usually gets the highest Ukip poll numbers. This latest survey is in line with the bounce other firms have shown and which the perceived winner of an election often records.

Unsurprisingly, it’s Survation’s poll which has attracted most interest because it shows a gap if just 2% between the Tories and Ukip. Cue cries of ‘Tory meltdown!, ‘Cameron in crisis!’ and every other journalistic cliche.

At the risk of precipitating on the parade of those who love nothing better than to indulge in over-excited hyper-speculation, can I make the following point. Or rather can I ask the following question: Does Nate Silver mean nothing to you? Did he write in vain?

Posted in Op-eds and Polls | Also tagged , , and | 24 Comments

++ Another new Eastleigh poll – and this time it shows the Tories in front by 4%

nick clegg eastleighLast night brought news of a Populus poll for The Times showing the Lib Dems ahead of the Tories by 33%-28%, a Lib Dem lead of 5%.

But tonight a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday has shown the Tories ahead of the Lib Dems by 33%-29%, a Tory lead of 4%.

Survation conducted an Eastleigh poll a fortnight ago — then they found the Lib Dems leading the Tories by 36%-33%. Here’s how the figures compare:

    Lib Dems 29% (-4%)
    Conservatives 33% (n/c)
    Ukip 21% (+5%)
    Labour 13% (n/c)

Only …

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections and Polls | Also tagged , and | 56 Comments

Poll shows Labour’s vote up but Livingstone’s vote down

When phone polling was first introduced in the UK it attracted flak over its accuracy (least remembered about those ASL polls the better), but also gained popularity through both its lower costs compared to the then dominant face to face polling and also its greater flexibility. The same pattern has been seen again with the spread of internet polling the UK. Just as face to face polling used to be the gold standard and phone polling the upstarts, now phone polling is the gold standard and internet polling the upstarts.

The merits or otherwise of YouGov have been much debated elsewhere …

Posted in London and Polls | Also tagged | 6 Comments

By-election polls: Labour 17% ahead – or 1%

Two polls out tonight (so far – there may be a third) on the Oldham by-election:

ICM for Mail on Sunday: Labour 44%, Lib Dem 27%, Conservative 18%
Populus for Lord Ashcroft / Sunday Telegraph: Labour 46%, Lib Dem 29%, Conservative 15%

UPDATE: New pollster Survation (who are applying for membership of the trade body, the British Polling Council) makes it much closer with Labour 31%, Lib Dem 30% and Conservative 6% (don’t knows not excluded, hence the lower figures all round).

Posted in News, Parliamentary by-elections and Polls | Also tagged | 72 Comments



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  • User AvatarT-J 30th Jul - 2:26am
    Well, I think you've allowed yourself to get swept away in the narrative. As someone studying in Edinburgh, from England, with no particular plans to...
  • User AvatarColin 30th Jul - 1:08am
    I think you are wrong. I think an independent Scotland will split England down the middle, and Northern English people will look to Scotland. As...
  • User AvatarDavid Allen 30th Jul - 12:31am
    So - we received no donations above £2000. Perhaps we received biggish donations in the £500-£1900 range. It seems reasonable to deduce that our average...
  • User AvatarTim13 30th Jul - 12:24am
    Stephen Donnelly A lot of corporate input - stalls at conference, more meals with corporate entrance fees paid etc? Reflective of the corporate wish to...
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    I note you say if we want to meet our targets, I hope you also note that when the targets got set no one asked...
  • User AvatarT-J 29th Jul - 11:54pm
    @Colin 'Go, Scotland. Show us how it’s done. Give us the alternative model in the North that we can look to and be inspired by.'...