Tag Archives: survation

Stephen Tall

Opinion polls yadda yadda. OR “Does Nate Silver mean nothing to you? Did he write in vain?”

By Stephen Tall | Tue 21st May 2013 - 8:45 am

Two new polls last night: the daily YouGov tracker and the first post-local elections poll from Survation. The spread is interesting:

    Labour: 35% (Survation 39% (YouGov)
    Conservatives: 24% (S), 31% (YG)
    Lib Dems: 11% (S), 10% (YG)
    Ukip: 22% (S), 14% (YG)

As Anthony Wells points out, Survation asks whether people will vote Ukip (most other firms just ask about the main three parties and ‘Others’) so usually gets the highest Ukip poll numbers. This latest survey is in line with the bounce other firms have shown and which the perceived winner of an election often records.

Unsurprisingly, it’s Survation’s poll which has attracted most interest because it shows a gap if just 2% between the Tories and Ukip. Cue cries of ‘Tory meltdown!, ‘Cameron in crisis!’ and every other journalistic cliche.

At the risk of precipitating on the parade of those who love nothing better than to indulge in over-excited hyper-speculation, can I make the following point. Or rather can I ask the following question: Does Nate Silver mean nothing to you? Did he write in vain?

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds and Polls | Also tagged , , and | 13 Comments
Stephen Tall

++ Another new Eastleigh poll – and this time it shows the Tories in front by 4%

By Stephen Tall | Sat 23rd February 2013 - 8:35 pm

nick clegg eastleighLast night brought news of a Populus poll for The Times showing the Lib Dems ahead of the Tories by 33%-28%, a Lib Dem lead of 5%.

But tonight a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday has shown the Tories ahead of the Lib Dems by 33%-29%, a Tory lead of 4%.

Survation conducted an Eastleigh poll a fortnight ago — then they found the Lib Dems leading the Tories by 36%-33%. Here’s how the figures compare:

    Lib Dems 29% (-4%)
    Conservatives 33% (n/c)
    Ukip 21% (+5%)
    Labour 13% (n/c)

Only …

Continue reading »
Posted in Parliamentary by-elections and Polls | Also tagged , and | 56 Comments
Mark Pack

Poll shows Labour’s vote up but Livingstone’s vote down

By Mark Pack | Sat 28th April 2012 - 1:15 pm

When phone polling was first introduced in the UK it attracted flak over its accuracy (least remembered about those ASL polls the better), but also gained popularity through both its lower costs compared to the then dominant face to face polling and also its greater flexibility. The same pattern has been seen again with the spread of internet polling the UK. Just as face to face polling used to be the gold standard and phone polling the upstarts, now phone polling is the gold standard and internet polling the upstarts.

The merits or otherwise of YouGov have been much debated elsewhere …

Continue reading »
Posted in London and Polls | Also tagged | 6 Comments
Mark Pack

By-election polls: Labour 17% ahead – or 1%

By Mark Pack | Sat 8th January 2011 - 9:13 pm

Two polls out tonight (so far – there may be a third) on the Oldham by-election:

ICM for Mail on Sunday: Labour 44%, Lib Dem 27%, Conservative 18%
Populus for Lord Ashcroft / Sunday Telegraph: Labour 46%, Lib Dem 29%, Conservative 15%

UPDATE: New pollster Survation (who are applying for membership of the trade body, the British Polling Council) makes it much closer with Labour 31%, Lib Dem 30% and Conservative 6% (don’t knows not excluded, hence the lower figures all round).

Posted in News, Parliamentary by-elections and Polls | Also tagged | 72 Comments



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarCaron Lindsay 21st May - 10:17pm
    I agree, Ed. I had feared they would vote against, though. I feel that they need to account for what they did.
  • User AvatarEd Fordham 21st May - 9:37pm
    Clearly individual MPs have to account for themselves but is it appropriate for the Deputy Leader and Party President of the Liberal Democrats, Messers Hughes...
  • User AvatarRichard Church 21st May - 9:35pm
    Great news. It is disappointing though that the humanist weddings amendment had to be withdrawn at the last minute due to a legal opinion from...
  • User AvatarJonathan Brown 21st May - 9:33pm
    "Only by the Western democracies and the Arab League States being prepared to match the military and political committment of Russia and Iran, by putting...
  • User AvatarDave Page 21st May - 9:06pm
    This Bill isn't good enough, particularly the lack of equal civil partnerships and the lack of action on trans marriage restoration. But it's still better...