Tag Archives: Timothy Hallam Smith

What do the academics say? The incumbency effect for MPs

Academics in caps and gowns - Some rights reserved by herkieWelcome to the latest in our occasional series highlighting interesting findings from academic research. Today – the incumbency benefit sitting MPs can build up, based on an analysis of the 1983-2010 general elections:

This note adapts two models commonly used to estimate the incumbency advantage that US members of Congress enjoy – the ‘slurge’ and the Gelman-King Index – to provide comparable estimates for UK MPs. The results show that

Posted in What do the academics say? | 4 Comments
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  • User AvatarTCO 28th Apr - 12:48pm
    @Robert. "And then they went into coalition with the devil." Really? Is this the Conservative and Unionist and Hell (Lower Elements) Party that you're talking...
  • User AvatarChrisB 28th Apr - 12:41pm
    I don't understand why people are crediting Farage with having any real say in the future. He's predicted to win 1-2 seats - nobody took...
  • User AvatarStephen Hesketh 28th Apr - 12:40pm
    Malcolm Todd28th Apr '15 - 12:12pm "Wow, paul. The surge is coming. What was your date for Lib Dems being bigger than Labour, again?" Very...
  • User AvatarTCO 28th Apr - 12:38pm
    @David Evans I'm not talking about members, I'm talking about support. Go and look at the opinion poll graphs for 2010 and how they slide...
  • User AvatarStephen Hesketh 28th Apr - 12:35pm
    TCO28th Apr '15 - 11:51am "The truth of the matter Mr H is that the left-leaning supporters we had ran away in 2010 right after...
  • User AvatarRobert 28th Apr - 12:33pm
    Yes and then they went into a coalition with the devil, now they have to pay the price.