Tag Archives: Timothy Hallam Smith

What do the academics say? The incumbency effect for MPs

Academics in caps and gowns - Some rights reserved by herkieWelcome to the latest in our occasional series highlighting interesting findings from academic research. Today – the incumbency benefit sitting MPs can build up, based on an analysis of the 1983-2010 general elections:

This note adapts two models commonly used to estimate the incumbency advantage that US members of Congress enjoy – the ‘slurge’ and the Gelman-King Index – to provide comparable estimates for UK MPs. The results show that

Posted in What do the academics say? | 4 Comments
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  • User AvatarDavid-1 2nd Mar - 2:35am
    @Mark Argent: "I am proud of the fact that we entered the coalition, though it was bound to do us harm: an impressive example of...
  • User AvatarDavid-1 2nd Mar - 2:26am
    We can certainly avoid talking about coalitions. But that won't stop the press and the voters from talking about them; especially as the election draws...
  • User AvatarMark Argent 2nd Mar - 12:20am
    My instinct is that talk of coalitions is premature, as we don't know how things will look until 8 May, and destructive if it causes...
  • User AvatarTsar Nicholas 2nd Mar - 12:13am
    I'm all in favour of free speech, but I'm also in favour of free tuition.
  • User AvatarATF 2nd Mar - 12:05am
    The problem has not been that people have been espousing such evil views, it is that we have not paid attention to the fact they...
  • User AvatarDavid Allen 1st Mar - 11:26pm
    Good article and some good posts below the line especially Roland, Tony Greaves, Nick Barlow. What I see is the survival of the pushiest. Empire-building...