Tag Archives: Timothy Hallam Smith

What do the academics say? The incumbency effect for MPs

Academics in caps and gowns - Some rights reserved by herkieWelcome to the latest in our occasional series highlighting interesting findings from academic research. Today – the incumbency benefit sitting MPs can build up, based on an analysis of the 1983-2010 general elections:

This note adapts two models commonly used to estimate the incumbency advantage that US members of Congress enjoy – the ‘slurge’ and the Gelman-King Index – to provide comparable estimates for UK MPs. The results show that

Posted in What do the academics say? | 4 Comments
Advert



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarIain BB 24th Mar - 11:44am
    Lib Dem Gain Prescot North West with 32% swing Lab>LD. LD 68% (+30%) Lab 28% (-34%) Con 4% (+4%)
  • User Avatarnvelope2003 24th Mar - 11:37am
    Further to my comment, for the record I do not believe that IRA violence can be justified but unless it was to go on forever...
  • User AvatarJohn Barrett 24th Mar - 11:17am
    Unlike Ben, I am not convinced of the case for a second referendum and think that if Tim and the party hope to win over...
  • User Avatartheakes 24th Mar - 10:46am
    Great win in Somerset. Leominster, an area of Lib Dem/Liberal strength for many years, therefore we should ask some polite questions. I hope we will...
  • User AvatarGwyn Williams 24th Mar - 10:30am
    The Department for Exiting the EU needs to by an atlas. The UK and France are not the only European powers with nuclear weapons. Russia...
  • User AvatarIan Sanderson (RM3) 24th Mar - 10:09am
    'Another by-election in Blackburn will have to be re-run following the disqualification of the Labour candidate. ' Was that Higher Croft, where there wasn't a...