Tag Archives: Timothy Hallam Smith

What do the academics say? The incumbency effect for MPs

Academics in caps and gowns - Some rights reserved by herkieWelcome to the latest in our occasional series highlighting interesting findings from academic research. Today – the incumbency benefit sitting MPs can build up, based on an analysis of the 1983-2010 general elections:

This note adapts two models commonly used to estimate the incumbency advantage that US members of Congress enjoy – the ‘slurge’ and the Gelman-King Index – to provide comparable estimates for UK MPs. The results show that

Posted in What do the academics say? | 4 Comments

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  • User AvatarRoland 5th Feb - 9:54pm
    I do get the distinct impression that UKIP are once again leading the 'debate', it is unfortunate that many in other parties seem to act...
  • User AvatarPeter Watson 5th Feb - 9:44pm
    @nvelope2003 "Why is this ?" A relatively small number of by-elections is unlikely to be a representative sample. More significantly, Lib Dems are not standing...
  • User AvatarWilliam Summers 5th Feb - 9:40pm
    It is ridiculous in my view to (theoretically) promote a privileged woman with, say, a highly paid job and a private education over a man...
  • User AvatarIan Swales 5th Feb - 9:30pm
    Louise, I think you're right about the voters - that they tend not to be biased. You also say "However Lib Dem local parties can...
  • User AvatarGeorge Kendall 5th Feb - 9:12pm
    Genuine question here. If we go for AWSs, someone will have to decide which winnable seats they will apply to. It'll certainly affect areas where...
  • User Avatarnvelope2003 5th Feb - 9:10pm
    There were some substantial increases in the percentage of votes cast for the Liberal Democrats in this weeks local by elections and the party came...