Tag Archives: Timothy Hallam Smith

What do the academics say? The incumbency effect for MPs

Academics in caps and gowns - Some rights reserved by herkieWelcome to the latest in our occasional series highlighting interesting findings from academic research. Today – the incumbency benefit sitting MPs can build up, based on an analysis of the 1983-2010 general elections:

This note adapts two models commonly used to estimate the incumbency advantage that US members of Congress enjoy – the ‘slurge’ and the Gelman-King Index – to provide comparable estimates for UK MPs. The results show that

Posted in What do the academics say? | 4 Comments
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  • User AvatarFiona 25th Feb - 8:48am
    Please excuse my ignorance, because I've not read the details, but isn't question e in the list Matt gives about being unable to make a...
  • User AvatarIan Sanderson 25th Feb - 8:34am
    I think that in Stoke, Paul Nuttall's reported position as the principal challenger exposed him and his party to the sort of scrutiny which UKIP...
  • User AvatarManfarang 25th Feb - 4:20am
    Eddie With the election of Trump, English republicanism is going to take a back seat for awhile. There is reform of church state relations i.e....
  • User AvatarLorenzo Cherin 25th Feb - 12:46am
    Eddie There you prove why I shall ever think you are one of my favourite people on this or any other site we might find...
  • User AvatarEddie Sammon 25th Feb - 12:09am
    Lol, thanks Lorenzo. We should discuss it another time! Maybe send an article pitch to LDV. Anyway, back to the topic...
  • User AvatarMartin 25th Feb - 12:03am
    Dan Falchikov: We could speculate what Corbyn's ratings would drop to if he were PM, or even deputy PM. Not that this would ever happen...