Tag Archives: yougov

Good news about Tim and Samantha

Can you predict how someone will vote from their first name?

YouGov has been busy analysing the political preferences of people with 130 different first names. And it seems that if you are called Tim then you are most likely to vote Lib Dem, if you are called Nick you don’t like Labour, and if you are Nigel you are least likely to vote Labour but prefer UKIP.

So far so good. But what about Samantha ? It seems she is very unlikely to vote Conservative and has switched to the Lib Dems.

names

Posted in News | 6 Comments

Fixed-term parliaments: 56% of voters support them, finds YouGov

I’ve written before about the fact I like fixed-term parliaments: In praise of 5-year fixed-term parliaments. You may remember that a few years ago, former Cambridge MP David Howarth tried to introduce them. Then in the Coalition Agreement, they became reality.

YouGov has asked the public what they think about them, and you can see the result below courtesy the New Statesman’s May2015 polling website:

yougov fixed term parliaments - 1

photo by: garryknight
Posted in News | Also tagged , , and | 20 Comments

Our worst nightmare? Peter Kellner’s scenario 3: “Lib Dems choose who’s the PM”

cameron clegg miliband 2Just over a year ago I wrote a piece titled Nightmare scenarios: what are the 2015 election results the Lib Dems, Tories and Labour most dread?

In it, I argued that the trickiest prospect for the Lib Dems would be an evenly poised general election outcome in which the Lib Dems held the balance of power:

In the nightmare scenario would have a genuine choice open to us: a second coalition with the Tories or a Lib-Lab pact.

Do a deal with the Tories – if that’s even

Posted in News | Also tagged , , and | 51 Comments

40% of the British public wants the Lib Dems to poll higher than now at the general election, YouGov finds

Here’s an interesting survey finding via YouGov. The pollster asked the following (slightly awkwardly worded) question:

The Lib Dems are currently between 6% to 11% in the opinion polls. At the next general election, might the Lib Dems get closer to their previous several elections? Their average for the past five elections is around 19%. AND, do you personally wnat them to do better than where they are now, or not?

You can see the full spread of results below. But bundled up here are the two key findings…

First, 78% of the public thinks the Lib Dems will poll around either …

Posted in Polls | 31 Comments

The ‘nowcast’ for May 2015 which gives the Lib Dems 28 MPs

Over at the polling website May2015 (part of the New Statesman stable) Matt Singh has asked the straightforward question, ‘How are the Lib Dems polling and will they survive in May 2015?’ Except it isn’t all that straightforward…

First, there’s the issue that the different polling companies don’t agree on what the current Lib Dem rating actually is. In the last fortnight, the party’s been rated as low as 5% (Opinium) and as high as 11% (ICM): that’s a difference outside the margin of error you might expect.

Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , and | 79 Comments

What the YouGov profiler says about Lib Dems

YouGov-Profiles-launchMarket research firm YouGov poll a lot of people about a lot of things. As a result they have a data trove which they’ve turned into a visualisation tool which can profile a typical customer for any given brand… including if that ‘brand’ is the Lib Dems.

Before I get to the fascinating screenshots, and you all shout back “But that’s just not true”, here’s what YouGov says about what the data show:

This app does not show the *typical* fan or customer. If it did, most groups would look very similar, and you wouldn’t learn a lot about the specifics of particular thing.

It shows what is *particularly true* about a group. We compare the group to their natural ‘comparison set’ (for example, fans of Downton Abbey compared to anyone who has rated any TV shows) and see which of the thousands of datapoints most overscore in our target group.

Posted in News | 35 Comments

Six months from 7th May 2015: how the polls are looking and what to look for

There are three key things about opinion polls.

The first is what matters are trends, not individual poll fluctuations.

The second is they’re snapshots, not forecasts. (A point made by Lord Ashcroft, to his credit, every time he publishes his latest poll finding.)

The third is the next general election won’t be decided by national party vote shares but by who wins in 650 individual seats. (A point often made by PoliticalBetting’s Mike Smithson.)

Here are the trends…

Here’s a graph which focuses solely on the first of these. It shows the result of every single opinion poll – courtesy Mark Pack’s invaluable spreadsheet – in the 12 months from October 2013 to September 2014 (incl.):

poll trends 2014

Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , , and | 69 Comments
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Recent Comments

  • User AvatarGlenn 30th Apr - 5:59am
    Tsar Nicholas, I sort of agree. To me what's happening is that, for want of a better word, progressive politics has cut itself of from...
  • User AvatarTony Greaves 29th Apr - 11:17pm
    Good stuff. This is something the party needs to do a lot of thinking about. I suspect that the more thought there is, and the...
  • User AvatarAlex Macfie 29th Apr - 11:07pm
    @Jane: "We could have done this ourselves outside the EU." No we couldn't. Or only for calls made in the UK. We could not regulate...
  • User AvatarNonconformistradical 29th Apr - 9:37pm
    @John Marriott I wonder if you have ever served on a jury. If you have then you should understand the necessity of making the grave...
  • User AvatarLorenzo Cherin 29th Apr - 9:37pm
    Andy Allen Tax rates are an important part of fiscal and monetary policy , now devolved , as for constitutional matters the only one the...
  • User AvatarEd Maxfield 29th Apr - 9:33pm
    :-)