A quick follow-up to my post with YouGov’s party I.D. figures as I’ve now got ComRes’s equivalent figures, these taken from its penultimate election poll:
Party I.D.
Labour 32.5% (YouGov), 39% (ComRes)
Conservatives 28.5% (YouGov), 35% (ComRes)
Lib Dem 12% (YouGov), 17% (ComRes)
Measuring underlying party I.D, as opposed to current voting intention, is a notoriously difficult process as people’s general political views expressed to pollsters often move closely in step with their voting intention. Therefore the differences in numbers for each party between the two pollsters are not too surprising and it is more significant that the pattern is the same – Labour underpolled their party I.D. figure and the Liberal Democrats have by far the lowest figure.
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5 Comments
Looking more carefully at the two sets of polling figures, the only real difference seems to be the number of “no party identity”. So this is really showing biases in the polling group – the comres sample has a higher proportion of politically active people.
“Labour underpolled their party I.D. figure”
Hardly surprising. There are many people who know they would be marginally better off under Labour, but realise that in the long run 10-15% deficits would ruin the country and harm them more.
Many labour feared tories but were still protesting about Iraq war, etc – Lib Dems posed as an alternative but sold out to Tories.
Not to mention tactical voting where Labour people would vote Liberal to keep the Tories out.
ComRes: 15% of those questioned remember voting Lib Dem. 18% would do so now! http://www.comres.co.uk/page1901722750.aspx (via @alansm)
Interesting, of those questioned, 15% say they voted Liberal Democrat at the GE, but 18% would now do so.