US Presidential election – hold onto your hats!

The 2012 US Presidential race is certainly going to be interesting. That’s for sure. There is no end of permutations, twists and turns ahead which will make very entertaining viewing for us over this side of the pond.

Every time you make a statement about the election, there are caveats and “but ifs” which follow.

It’s tempting to say that Obama is sunk because of the US economy. However, there are strong signs now of a solid recovery. Last week’s job news was very positive and polls are showing a thawing of anti-Obama feeling.

You could also say that Obama is hated by some. Indeed, the vitriol aimed at Obama by the right-wing is extraordinary. But generally, Obama does well in polls for likeability.

Sometimes, Democrat Presidents struggle to shrug off the image of being soft on foreign matters. I’m thinking particularly of Jimmy Carter, who was crippled (politically) by the Iran hostages affair. However, whether you believe he’s right or wrong, Obama has been stunningly effective in foreign affairs from a US point of view. Bin Laden is dead, al-Quaeda is neutered, the Iran war has “ended”, the Afghanistani war will probably be within sight of an end by November, and no new full-scale wars have started.

You could say that Obama has been a lame duck President because he is forever in a deadlock with Republicans on the Hill. But, legislatively, he has been one of the most successful Presidents in living history, with Healthcare reform and a number of other key legislative packages in place.

While Mitt Romney has struggled to get Republican primary support, he will seem like a more natural, main-stream candidate for the general election. He’s a great fund-raiser and has an extraordinary loyal and wide base of campaign workers.

Sadly, there is one significant factor which may make this US Presidential Election dirtier and more dominated by money than any other recent Presidential race.

That factor is Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission 2010. The Supreme Court ruling in that case made it legal for corporations and unions to spend from their general treasuries to finance independent expenditures in campaigns through Political Action Committees, or PACs or SuperPACs. This means that the 2012 US Presidential campaign will be absolutely awash with millions of dollars’ worth of TV adverts attacking each side.

It’s not going to be edifying.

* Paul Walter is a Liberal Democrat activist. As part of the Liberal Democrat Voice team he helps with photos and moderation on the site, as well as occsionally contributing articles. He blogs at Liberal Burblings.

Read more by or more about , or .
This entry was posted in News.
Advert

2 Comments

  • You say ‘the Iran war has ended’ but I suspect you meant Iraq war. Freudian slip me thinks 😉

Post a Comment

Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

If you are a member of the party, you can have the Lib Dem Logo appear next to your comments to show this. You must be registered for our forum and can then login on this public site with the same username and password.

To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

*
*
Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?

Advert



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarChristopher Haigh 24th Jul - 1:02am
    @Glenn, UKIP might be a threat to some Labour seats but they have no chance of unseating the Tories. The government needs to delay brexit...
  • User Avatarmalc 23rd Jul - 11:05pm
    Christopher You might be right, but consolidating or not, it's still the worlds largest bank spending 400 million dollars on a new office block in...
  • User AvatarMatt (Bristol) 23rd Jul - 10:29pm
    I have come to see that 3-member STV (which I know is smaller constituencies than many would prefer in this party) could be quite workable...
  • User AvatarClootie 23rd Jul - 10:29pm
    Article 50 http://archive.is/ItEss
  • User AvatarClootie 23rd Jul - 10:27pm
    If anybody knows about dirty tricks it is Alistair!
  • User AvatarGordon 23rd Jul - 10:13pm
    Conor McGovern - Not necessarily. That's down to how the profits are allocated between profits on the one hand and wages/salaries on the other. However,...
Sun 24th Jul 2016
Tue 26th Jul 2016
Thu 28th Jul 2016
Sat 30th Jul 2016
Mon 1st Aug 2016
Sat 6th Aug 2016
Wed 10th Aug 2016
Fri 12th Aug 2016
19:00
Thu 18th Aug 2016