Don’t worry, we really are trying! A lot of this comes down to recognition internally. For example, I bet you didn’t know that over two thirds of our gains in the Locals this year were in Wales. Barely even mentioned.
It seems that every time anyone has posted about Wales here, the discussion just desends into a deeply boring discussion of the Welsh language.

Yes, we are due a new leader this year.

BUT, as someone who takes an interest in Welsh politics (but from the other side of Clawdd Offa !) we really do need to up our game and build our profile. I gather we are to have a new leader ( …… )

I agree wholeheartedly with Ben L above. Kilroy was what did it for UKIP last time and from what I can see, they are in a whole load of trouble right now. I think there is a verty good chance that the BNP will overtake them in Wales in the euros.

Make no mistake, it will be tough for the Welsh Lib Dems to win, but it is do-able, and the first step is convincing the activists that its worth fighting. Comments such as those from Andrew Turvey will not help.

UKIP don’t do better in European elections, they did better in the 2004 European elections. We were fifth by just a handful of percent last time round, and UKIP no longer have the Kilroy-Silk publicity machine.

If anything, the 2007 results are the most accurate ones to use: the locals in 2008 saw no party stand enough candidates, and too many independents, to be useful. Of course the constituency vote will be different to the regional vote: but we are less than a two-and-a-half percent swing off of winning it on either measure.

I would consider using the 2004 results as needing “a couple of caveats” – the Labour vote has fallen massively since 2004 in Wales – as see by how they no longer run a whole range of ‘heartland’ councils. And there is no way UKIP can be considered a proper threat.

Anyway, congratulations to all the candidates. Wales is just a small step away from having a Welsh Lib Dem MEP.

I think this probably won’t hold up next time round. UKIP did well in the 2004 elections, but it was something of a high water-mark for them. I wouldn’t expect anything like that performance from them this time around.

I reckon the votes are there for Alan Butt Philip to pick up the seat. Good.

We actually came fifth in the Euros last time – the extra party is UKIP which always does much better in european elections compared to anything else. By contrast we always do worse in European elections. Their chances of taking the fourth seat shouldn’t be discounted.

Labour always does better on its constituency vote compared to its list because of the distortions of the top up system of PR used for the Assembly elections. Using this figure as a base for the euros is a bit suspect.

These are the swings needed for each party to gain a single seat:

LD gain from Lab: 3.8% swing
UKIP gain from Lab: 3.7% swing
Lab gain from PC: 6.5% swing
Con gain from Lab: 6.5% swing
PC gain from Lab: 7.4% swing