When all the changes in party support in an opinion poll are within the margin of error. Pretty obvious stuff you’d have thought, but take a look at the Reuters headline for its new marginal seats poll:
Poll shows late surge for Conservatives in swing seats
Now look at the actual vote shares:
Conservative 36% (+1)
Labour 36% (-2)
Lib Dem 20% (-1)
In other words, all the changes are within the margin of error. This is not a poll result that justifies the “surge” headline, even though curiously Reuters does rightly describe the Lib Dem share as “steady” which is a fair description for a change that’s within the margin of error.
UPDATE: Just to add to the mis-reporting over the poll, although initially it was reported as pointing to an overall Conservative majority MORI then issued a press release pointing out that’s not the case. Hence this juxtaposition of stories over on PoliticsHome:
UPDATE 2: MORI’s correction has been missed by the Telegraph, which today (Tuesday) has reported (wrongly) that, “An IPSOS/Mori poll of marginal constituencies for Reuters on Monday suggested the party was on course for a two-seat majority”.