Comments on: YouGov leadership poll: half of those yet to vote are undecided

By: Sam

Sam — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 17:54:33 +0000

The veracity of this poll ought to be looked at in the context of You Gov’s success at predicting the result last time.

On 26th Jan 2006 they reported that Lib Dem voters in their monthly poll split:

Hughes 23%, Campbell 22% and Huhne 13%.

On 9th Feb 2006 they reported a poll of Lib Dem members which predicted:

Huhne 32%, Campbell 29% and Hughes 23%.

I certainly won’t be betting my shirt on their advice!

By: Sam

Sam — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 17:52:03 +0000

15 – Huhne has been all over the media this week for writing to the Met asking them to investigate the Labour donations scandal.

By: Hywel Morgan

Hywel Morgan — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 17:12:56 +0000

“Given recent events, and Huhne’s almost complete media whoring,”

When’s this been – I’ve not seen or heard anything from either since the Newsnight hustings

By: The last Radical

The last Radical — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 17:08:42 +0000

I fear that Chris Huhne might be seen as too capable and ambitious, and the armchair Lib Dems will vote for Mick Clegg because they feel sorry for him!
…..or perhaps Nick has just decided to spend the last week telephone canvasssing and to leave the media stuff to his opponent?

By: Tory Lady

Tory Lady — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 15:55:29 +0000

Tories are hoping sulky Cleggy gets it as we will have an easier ride. The Champers is being chilled!

By: High Voltage Cable

High Voltage Cable — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 09:15:43 +0000

Given recent events, and Huhne’s almost complete media whoring, Clegg had better get his face on a lot of TV screens before the polls close!

By: GRIMOND1

GRIMOND1 — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 02:14:31 +0000

Yes, extremely unlikely. Just wish Nick could get on with it now. This leadership election has gone on far too long and the announcement just before Christmas is stupid timing. We’ll get little coverage til early new year but at least we’ll have made the right decision.

By: Charles Anglin

Charles Anglin — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 02:06:09 +0000

If this poll is right then Chris needs win the undecideds by 2-1 inorder to win. Not impossible but very unlikely

By: Arkenor

Arkenor — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 01:13:19 +0000

I am so sad that Vincent Cable wouldn’t run for party leader. He’s doing so well, and it doesn’t look like that Youguv poll even mentioned him

I made a little cartoon in honour of his Mr Bean comment. I hope you like it!

By: Dan Falchikov

Dan Falchikov — Sat, 01 Dec 2007 23:54:28 +0000

Let’s be clear all YouGov polls are voodoo.

We really shouldn’t quote sampling error as you can’t have that with a panel poll – only with random sample polls.

I suspect that 650 is a very high proportion of the Lib Dems registered with YouGov and many have been with them for a while – I certainly know one or two people (some who are no longer involved in the party who joined up several years ago.

These people’s views are no longer valid in any meaningful statistical terms as they will have been ‘poisoned’ by the panel effect.

All that can be said about this poll is that around 300 people asked by YouGov have said they’re voting for Clegg and around 250 have said they’re voting for Huhne.

The other 70,000 we know nothing about.

By: Rob F

Rob F — Sat, 01 Dec 2007 22:06:28 +0000

“Voter appeal, rather than competence or better policy programme, is key to Nick Clegg’s voting lead. Half of those polled (53%) think he has more voter-appeal than Chris Huhne who received nearly six times less votes in this area (9%).

However, more members think Huhne has a better policy programme (28% to 19%). Asked if one of the candidates is ‘significantly more competent than the other’, 60% of members say there is not much difference on competence.

Paddy Ashdown is the best Liberal Democrat leader since the party was formed, according to over half of members polled (54%); followed by Charles Kennedy (37%). Most members think Ming Campbell is the worst (55%).”

http://adamboulton.typepad.com/

By: Stuart

Stuart — Sat, 01 Dec 2007 21:40:24 +0000

They may not have asked you, GrammarPolice, but they did ask me.

By: Joe Taylor

Joe Taylor — Sat, 01 Dec 2007 20:53:24 +0000

I’d imagine a lot of those undecideds will end up not voting. I’ll be interested to see whether YouGov provide a breakdown of that when they release their final figures!

By: TimberWolf

TimberWolf — Sat, 01 Dec 2007 20:50:56 +0000

I have not voted yet, but soon will. I have virtually made my mind up.

By: Rob F

Rob F — Sat, 01 Dec 2007 20:43:53 +0000

Turnout last time was between 70-75% IIRC. Certainly I’m among those who haven’t yet voted but who will

By: Peter Welch

Peter Welch — Sat, 01 Dec 2007 19:57:07 +0000

How many of those yet to vote will vote at all? What was the turnout last time around?

By: Grammar Police

Grammar Police — Sat, 01 Dec 2007 19:55:26 +0000

Humpf. YouGov didn’t ask me!