Turkey
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is on a high. His Syrian proxy is in power in Damascus. The Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan has called on his followers to lay down their arms and disband. Kurdish fighters in Syria are doing that and amalgamating their forces with those of the new Erdogan-backed government.
It is the perfect time for the Turkish president to go after his domestic opposition. And that is exactly what he has done.
This week he arrested his chief political opponent—Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu– on charges of corruption and aiding and abetting terrorists. Funnily enough, the arrest came just before Imamoglu was due to be nominated as the candidate for the presidency by the Republican People’s Party (CHP).
The elections are not due until 2028, but the opposition wanted to give Imamoglu the maximum campaign time to break the stranglehold that Erdogan has on the media, courts, police and electoral processes.
Erdogan shouldn’t be worried about the Istanbul mayor simply because he has announced that he is retiring in 2028 when his term of office ends. In fact, he has to retire. Unless… he changes the constitution.
The current constitution limits the president to two terms in office. Erdoğan was first elected in 2014, but changed the constitution so that he was able to serve three consecutive terms instead of the two under the old constitution.
Erdoğan has made statements in the past indicating that he would retire in 2028, but there’s also speculation that he might seek to alter the constitution or push for an extension of his term. Both of which are possible given the dominance of his Law and Justice Party (AKP). And his chances are improved even more by the elimination of the only personality presenting a serious challenge.
Putin
In 2007 President George W. Bush declared: “I looked into the soul of President Putin and found a man I could trust.” He later admitted that that he was wrong.
In 2014 Putin denied that Russian troops were in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. They were “local militia” or “volunteers,” he claimed. He also denied any intention of annexing Crimea. He lied about the “volunteers” and annexed Crimea.
In July 2014 Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over Eastern Ukraine. Putin blamed the Ukrainians. A multinational investigation determined it was the Russians.
At Helsinki, the Russian leader told Donald Trump that Russia did not interfere in the 2016 US presidential elections. The Mueller Report and every one of the US intelligence agencies said it did. Putin dismissed the allegations as part of a wider conspiracy against Russia.
In 2018 former Russian agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were poisoned with novichok in the quiet English town of Salisbury. Putin said it had nothing to do with Russia. British intelligence determined that he ordered the attempted assassination and identified the assassins.