Preparing for Trump Presidency Two Electric Boogaloo

Many of us felt despondent at the results of the 2024 Presidential election. Bitterness, despair, disgust and fear. It is only natural given how the world’s most powerful country has elected a dangerous, destructive demagogue.

But it is not enough to fall into moral outrage. We must prepare for the coming storm and what could be an end to Atlanticism.

Liberalism has not faced a more powerful foe since the Cold War. The underpinnings of our national security strategy have been thrown into question. Our access to international markets has been thrown into doubt, undermining our prosperity. The threat of climate change has become even more menacing. Meanwhile, our politics threatens to be overrun reactionaries embolden by Trump’s example.

To be complacent is to invite economic, political, ecological and social ruin. To hope that fawning over Trump and his courtiers, in hope of being spared the worst of his mercurial nature, is a high-stakes gamble. Given Trump’s longstanding admiration of autocrats of their perceived strength, our best bet to project strength.

The good news is that we are not alone in this. Most of America’s many allies face the exact same dilemma. As Sir Ed Davey has said, its imperative that we rebuild our relationship with the EU and seek further integration. High tariffs on all our American exports will halve our anaemic and much need economic growth. Greater integration with the single market would offset some of effects of these tariffs, whilst giving us a stronger bargaining position with Trump over the incoming trade talks.

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Trump’s Election: A wake up call for Europe and Britain

The recent election of Donald Trump as President of the United States marks a pivotal shift in the transatlantic alliance, forcing Europe to reassess its position on defence, economic policy, and international relations. For Great Britain, the European Union, and NATO allies, Trump’s presidency presents both immediate and long-term challenges. His ambivalence toward NATO’s traditional role, compounded by isolationist and protectionist policies, signals a tectonic change in the foundation of post-World War II alliances. With Trump back in office, Europe must adopt a more strategic, coordinated, and self-reliant approach to ensure regional stability and security.

Trump’s stance on NATO introduces real uncertainty into Europe’s defence calculus. Historically, NATO has underpinned European security, offering a powerful deterrent against aggressors like Russia. However, Trump’s prior remarks about “free-riding” by European nations and his willingness to reconsider U.S. commitments cast doubt on the assumption that the U.S. will always be the principal guarantor of European security. This is particularly concerning as Russia’s actions in Ukraine demonstrate the enduring risk of territorial aggression on the continent. Europe, therefore, faces a strategic imperative to assume a larger share of its defence burden, fortify its military capabilities, and reinforce collective defence mechanisms.

The European Union and NATO must now confront their limitations in readiness, force projection, and rapid response capability. While NATO’s Article 5 provides a mutual defence framework, its effectiveness is compromised if member states lack interoperability and standardized response capabilities. Thus, Europe’s emphasis must shift toward enhancing interoperability among its forces, modernizing its military infrastructure, and bolstering cybersecurity defences. Major urban centres like Milan, Geneva, Krakow, Berlin, and London must be prepared to withstand a range of threats, from cyber incursions to hybrid warfare and missile strikes. Europe’s major powers, particularly Germany and France, need to accelerate their defence spending and expand joint military exercises to build a resilient and autonomous defence posture.

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7 November 2024 – today’s press releases

  • ONS GP Survey: Two in five who could not get through to GP did nothing about symptoms
  • Interest rate cut: Govt must work to deliver growth, especially through small businesses
  • Davey to visit Ukraine charity: “Leaders across Europe must stand up to Putin”

ONS GP Survey: Two in five who could not get through to GP did nothing about symptoms

Responding to the latest ONS Survey, which showed that two in five (39%) people who were unable to contact their GP in the past month opted to do nothing about their ailment, Liberal Democrat Health and Social Care spokesperson, Helen Morgan MP said:

Our primary care services are at breaking point. Patients are left completely without options, instead letting their issues get worse when they are unable to get the care they need.

The blame for this shocking state of affairs lies squarely with the Conservative Party whose years of shameful neglect has broken our NHS.

It is now down to the new government to rise to this challenge and rescue our health service. That is why it is so disappointing to see that instead of supporting our GPs they are piling more pressure on them with their national insurance hike.

The new government needs to urgently rethink these proposals, scrap the GP penalty and get patients the care they deserve.

Interest rate cut: Govt must work to deliver growth, especially through small businesses

Commenting after the Bank of England has cut interest rates to 4.75%, Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson Daisy Cooper MP said:

This is welcome news for families across the country who are still living with the consequences of Conservative economic failure.

Notwithstanding, millions of households are still struggling with sky high mortgage payments two years on from the Conservatives’ disastrous mini-budget.

The burden of fixing the Conservatives’ mess has fallen on struggling households for too long. As rates are cut, the new Government must work to deliver growth in the economy, especially through small businesses and high streets.

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Why Poland is the place to be/ place to go to?

I remember it really, really well. No more queues to buy basic ingredients, regular visits to the Police station, inability to travel to countries outside of the Iron Curtain. Late 1980’s and beginning of 1990’s in the Eastern Europe and Poland have seen a seismic political and economic transformation, which included first free elections,

As a teenager, through my church community, in the middle of 1990’s, I was lucky enough to visit Italy on a few occasions. My deep desire to move around was so strong! Yes, our passports had to be checked at each border, however visiting some of the world landmarks was truly beyond extraordinary. On the other hand, I also felt a bit of resentment and “human jealousy”. After many years of oppression, stagnation, Poland was re-starting its journey towards prosperity. We had so much catching-up to do. It did feel at times like a mission impossible. Despite some difficult “post Berlin Wall beginnings”, I always felt very proud to be Polish.

In 2001, I left Poland for Croatia, where I had an opportunity to start my MA in History. After completing my University and after getting married, we moved to Italy and then eventually to the United Kingdom.

Since settling in Britain in 2005, I have been frequently traveling to Poland. Sometimes, you need to look back at the journey of your nation, the grief, suffering and sacrifice of many, to appreciate even more the positive transformation, some superb outcomes in my homeland. People often ask, what are the key ingredients of the Polish story?

I think that we often forget that Poland is the sixth economy in the EU. It is the 5th most populous country in the EU and 9th largest country in Europe. Moreover, the Polish GDP growth is expected to be around 3.1% in 2024, whereas in the UK only around 1.1%. Poland, for a number of years now, has been the biggest beneficiary nation of the EU funds, which in my view, have been wisely spent on key infrastructure projects. Something unimaginable 30 years ago e.g. motorway drive across Poland from Lublin to Wroclaw, is now a reality.

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The Independent View: “The Rising Price of Freedom”

In 2011, Paddy Ashdown made a critical observation:

We are all now deeply, deeply, deeply interconnected… the idea of a nation state acting alone, not connected with others, not working with others, is no longer a viable proposition. Because the actions of a nation state are neither confined to itself, nor is it sufficient for the nation state itself to control its own territory, because the effects outside the nation state are now beginning to affect what happens inside them.

This led Ashdown to a deep commitment to multilateral cooperation, one which is at the heart of Liberal Democrat values—liberty, equality, democracy, community, human rights, internationalism, and environmentalism. Liberal internationalism, rooted in these values, has shaped the party’s support for open markets, cooperative security, and strong global institutions. It’s no surprise, then, that the Liberal Democrats remain steadfast advocates for EU membership and a proactive global role for the UK.

This liberal internationalist outlook has defined the Liberal Democrats for generations, and with 72 MPs in Parliament, it’s time to drive a more active, collaborative UK foreign policy.

As Labour unveiled its first Autumn Statement this year, however, the UK’s foreign policy prospects look bleak.

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Don’t blame us for Trump

A friend of mine in Florida, who only recently became an American decades after marrying one, cast her vote for Kamala Harris early, to keep Donald Trump (or the ‘orange stain’, as she calls him) out of the White House. However, four million US nationals will have had no say in the matter; while all US citizens are nationals, not all US nationals are citizens, disenfranchising them further.

When Trump-supporting comedian Tony Hinchcliffe described Puerto Rico as ‘a floating island of garbage’, it was a particularly low blow given that its residents have no vote in the presidential election, despite being US citizens, and its only representation in Congress is a non-voting Resident Commissioner in the House of Representatives, with none in the Senate.

Historically, before being admitted to the Union, many states, then territories, elected non-voting delegates to the House as a first step to achieving statehood, but since Hawaii in 1959, no territory has been admitted. Puerto Rico, the most populous of them, is divided on the issue, with some favouring statehood, others independence, and others the status quo, while in the US itself, Republicans are lukewarm, dreading an increased number of Democrats on Capitol Hill.

In my innocence, I thought that the reason for this limited political representation was because Puerto Rico, along with the US Virgin Islands, Guam, the Northern Marianas and American Samoa, was because they weren’t subject to federal taxes, a case of no representation without taxation, but there are more unsavoury reasons, hence them being ‘foreign in a domestic sense’.

When most of them were acquired following the Spanish-American War, there was a Supreme Court ruling that they were inhabited by ‘alien races’ unable to be governed by ‘Anglo-Saxon principles’, and therefore the Constitution didn’t have to apply there, and by extension, nor did voting rights. Despite only being supposed to apply ‘for a time’, it does so to this day, having been extended to the formerly Danish US Virgin Islands, the formerly German American Samoa, and the Japanese Northern Marianas, which only have non-voting delegates in Congress.

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There are ways to achieve peace in the Middle East

Many Israelis think they face ‘annihilation’ by Iran and their proxies, and that this means their wars in Gaza and Lebanon fall outside the boundaries set by the international rules of war.  The fear of annihilation didn’t come out of nowhere, but although there has been some fiery rhetoric about Israel’s right to exist over the years, Iran doesn’t seriously believe it could destroy Israel, especially given that it’s backed by the US.  The ‘existential’ distress Israelis feel is more likely an expression of the deep insecurity affecting many Jews around the world, and it originates not from their treatment by Arabs or Iranians, but from centuries of racial abuse and persecution in Europe.  Understanding and accepting this as the underlying cause of the unrestrained assaults on Gaza and Lebanon ought to be fundamental to the peace process.

As things stand, Israel’s Prime Minister won’t listen to calls for restraint, even from the UN or international courts, not because he is mad, or is fighting to stave off corruption charges, or is bent on destroying hopes for a two-state solution, but because he knows that many Israelis think they are in fight for their survival, which on their view means all the normal rules go out of the window.

The fear of annihilation touches a deep place in the human psyche.  When psychoanalysts discuss the war in Gaza they speak of paranoia brought on by Israelis never being allowed to forget the Holocaust, and how that can make them seek refuge in feelings of omnipotence.  The feeling of omnipotence is a delusional state of mind, but it must have been a very seductive delusion to fall back on after the  horrific Hamas attack on October 7 last year.

Most outside observers judge the Israeli response to the threat from Hamas as having been wildly disproportionate, and think it has strayed far beyond its initial purpose – retaliation (or perhaps revenge) for the killing of so many Israeli civilians.  To most of us it’s clear that Netanyahu could end the war in Gaza and Lebanon and get the remaining hostages back simply by giving up on the idea of an enlarged ‘Greater Israel’ and conceding that the Palestinians have a right to their homeland in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza.  Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah have all said as much – that they would stop attacking Israel if it agreed to end the Occupation.  Jordan’s envoy to the UN has gone further and said the Arab states of the Middle East would guarantee Israel’s security if it ended the bombardment of Gaza and backed the two-state solution.

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WATCH: Ed Davey question Keir Starmer on Trump re-election

Today at PMQs, Ed used his questions to challenge Keir Starmer on the UK Government’s approach to the incoming Trump administration.

The text is below:

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Alex Cole-Hamilton on Trump victory

Two weeks ago,  Scottish Lib Dem Leader Alex Cole-Hamilton was in Scranton, Pennsylvania, using a week of holiday to knock up for Kamala Harris.

Today he spoke to BBC Scotland about his worries about a second Trump presidency.

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LibLink – Christine Jardine: How the UK should deal with four more years of Donald Trump

Christine Jardine has written for the Scotsman about how the UK should deal with the second Trump presidency.

Like most Lib Dems, she has focused on the need to strengthen our relationships with our European partners.

The news from the US dampened the mood at Westminster:

Wednesday morning too was cloaked in a cloud of gloom as MPs considered the prospect of an American president whose protectionist instincts and apparently dismissive attitude to Nato and European defence leaves us worried for the future. I do not want contemplate the dread that must have been felt in Ukraine about what it might mean for the support on which their war effort depends.

Then, of course, there are the implications for so many American women and their right to choose what is best for them and their bodies.

We need to work together, at home and with Europe:

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Defending Liberalism in a Trumpian world

World politics is going to be rough in the next few years – and British politics will be increasingly difficult, too.  Trump’s victory means that the USA’s role in global affairs will be highly unpredictable.  But we can predict that American influence will not be constructive on a range of global issues, from combatting climate change to managing the world economy and containing conflicts, and is unlikely to be affected by consideration for British or European concerns.  So how do we respond?

Ed Davey’s first response to Trump’s victory was spot on.  We need to defend and promote liberal values and prioritise rebuilding closer relations with our European neighbours.  Neither of those are easy.  Illiberal movements are gaining ground in many democratic countries, including within the EU.  Liberal democracy gains most support when economies are growing, societies are stable and international relations are peaceful.  Even without the added complications of an incoherent and unfriendly US Administration, the challenges of preventing catastrophic climate change, of coping with the mass movement of people that climate change and regional conflicts are already driving, of moving towards a sustainable global economy and resisting Chinese and Russian expansionism would be hard to manage – and harder to persuade the British electorate to share the cost.

There will no doubt be a flood of analyses of why a majority of American voters supported Trump.  But discontent at the economic and social disruption of their lives, and disillusion with the ‘elites’ who – as they see it – allowed disruptive change to sweep from outside through their communities, were major factors.  Those discontents are widespread in Britain as well.  The ‘left behind’ in northern and coastal towns feel similarly abandoned by educated elites and multinational corporations.  You Gov tracker polls show that the answer to the question ‘Are members of Parliament in touch with the public or not?’ has consistently shown around 70% answering ‘out of touch’ and 10-12% ‘in touch’ over the past five years.  Those in the Brexit Referendum who were saying ‘I want my country back’ were expressing a similar sense of loss to Trump supporters who want to ‘Make America Great Again.’

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Ed Davey calls Trump a “dangerous, destructive demagogue”

Ed Davey has called on the Government to fix our broken relationship with the EU in his first comments since Donald Trump won the US election. And he did not mince his words about the President-Elect, referring to him as a dangerous, destructive, demagogue.

He said:

This is a dark, dark day for people around the globe. The world’s largest economy and most powerful military will be led by a dangerous, destructive demagogue.

The next President of the United States is a man who actively undermines the rule of law, human rights, international trade, climate action and global security.

Millions of Americans – especially women and minorities – will be incredibly fearful about what comes next. We stand with them.

Families across the UK will also be worrying about the damage Trump will do to our economy and our national security, given his record of starting trade wars, undermining NATO and emboldening tyrants like Putin.

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The lamp beside the golden door has dimmed a little

After a surprisingly good sleep, I’ve woken up. I’ve done a quick review of the latest on CNN and the web.

Then I switched over to an excellent BBC documentary called “Scotland – The New Wild”. It is remarkable. It has some excellent footage of basking sharks.

In the past, I have looked to USA for vicarious inspiration. While UK domestic politics has been rather depressing, USA has provided a refreshing relief – some
inkling of a better approach for civic life.

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7:30 am update: Lib Dems react to US election outcome

It’s not officially over yet, but it looks very much as though Donald Trump has won the US Presidential election and that the Republicans have won the Senate. And with Supreme Court Justices likely to retire, Trump has the chance to reinforce the already iron grip of conservatives on the Supreme Court.

It’s a very bleak morning. This is the result I have feared for a long time but allowed myself to hope that Kamala Harris might just pull off a victory.

In the 3 months since she became the Republican nominee, she has barely put a foot wrong as a candidate. She’s run a positive, optimistic campaign. She did not repeat the mistakes of 2016 when the Democrats withdrew from the key battleground states because they thought they had won.

If there was anything she could have done better, it was land a hopeful economic message. She also didn’t land the blame on Trump and the Republicans for blocking measures which would have improved people’s economic situation like a child tax credit and paid family leave.

She had to contend also with the Middle East situation. That undoubtedly lost her some votes – and probably from both sides.

Anyway, senior Lib Dems have started to process the news. This is what they are saying on social media:

Layla Moran, until recently our foreign affairs spokesperson:

Votes not yet all in but looks like hate is winning. The implications for security across the globe cannot be underestimated. Ukraine. Middle East. China. The UK will need to reevaluate its geopolitical centre of gravity.

Tim Farron:

Oh well!! 🇺🇸 😱 First thoughts…. The UK now needs to do one thing the left/liberals won’t like (establish strong early relationships with the Trump administration) and one thing the right won’t like (scrap all barriers to trade with Europe/increase military co-operation).

Mike Martin:

The UK immediately needs to:

– Increase defence spending rapidly (rather than shrinking its army)
– Focus its military strategy on deterring Russian aggression in Europe (rather than confronting ‘global threats’)
– Work with European allies to defend Europe under a NATO that doesn’t have US support (rather than assuming that America guarantees European security).

Chris Coughlan:

With the geopolitical shock of a likely Trump win the UK needs to move immediately back closer to our European allies- including reopening the issue of the single market

Freddie Van Mierlo

As the results of the US Presidential election still come in, the U.K. must urgently consider its position in Europe and our security. Slava Ukraini

Vikki Slade

This is just devastating – the world is moving in a scary way & I fear for all those vulnerable groups in USA but across the world.
Why would a country fall for such a con?

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6am update: It really isn’t looking good

Since my last update at the back of 4, the outlook for Kamala Harris has become a lot bleaker. Trump is ahead in all of the battleground states and it looks like he is on course to win the popular vote.

It’s not over yet, but it’s not where anyone of a liberal disposition would want us to be at this stage of the count.

What’s worse is that it looks like the Republicans will have control of the Senate and the House is a bit of a toss up.

If you need reminding, Donald Trump is a convicted felon who refused to accept his defeat in 2021, leading to an insurrection which he encouraged. He tried to get his then Vice President to refuse to certify the results of the election.  He has been ordered to pay $83 million to E Jean Carroll after he called her a liar for accusing him of sexually assaulting her. He still has outstanding court cases relating to the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection.

When he was last in office, he appointed 3 conservative Supreme Court Justices who overturned the historic Roe vs Wade ruling which guaranteed a federal right to abortion. This has led to abortion bans in many states which are so stringent that women who have miscarriages are being denied life-saving procedures.

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4 am update: Harris campaign “searching for bright spots”

I have just woken up and am catching up on how things are going.

And it’s not looking good, to be honest.

At this time in 2020, it didn’t look that good either and then it got better. However, CNN’s John King is now looking at Georgia and is saying that it looks more like 2016, when Trump won than 2020 when he eventually lost. He says it is possible that Harris can win the state, but “you would rather be Donald Trump in Georgia right now.” Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 result in 28 of the 159 counties.

The battleground is now very much in the 3 “rust belt” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. At this point, Trump is ahead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but there’s still a while to go.  The “blue wall” is going to be as crucial in the US election as it was in ours.

The Harris campaign does not expect the contest to be resolved tonight.

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Pennsylvania exit polls suggest a different climate than in the south

The CNN exit polls for Pennsylvania show higher responses for voters being concerned about reproductive rights and the state of democracy, compared to the numbers in Georgia and North Carolina.

Indications are that Philadelphia has seen higher than expected turnout, particularly in areas with high populations of those of Puerto Rican heritage.

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Nancy Pelosi predicts that the Democrats will win the House

Nancy Pelosi told CNN today:

“Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House. I don’t know what the margin will be, but I know that we have the votes to win the House.”

With the Republicans highly likely to take control of the US Senate, this suggests a split congress for whoever becomes the next President.

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First results not encouraging for Harris

I’m watching Election night on CNN, which provides a very pithy, statistical coverage of the results.

My first takeaways are not encouraging for Kamala Harris. Mind you we are very short of tea leaves to read so far.

A Florida county which Biden won by several points is showing Harris trailing Biden’s number.

In Georgia, it’s very early in the counting process. Independents, which make up 31% of the electorate, are going clearly for Trump, whereas Biden won the independents in 2020.

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Maiden speeches: Danny Chambers MP for Winchester

Danny Chambers made his maiden speech on Thursday 12th September in the Sir David Amess Adjournment Debate.

Here is the text of the speech in full:

Thank you Madam Deputy Speaker. That was an interesting maiden speech; it is clear how passionate you are—sorry, Madam Deputy Speaker, I will get this right. The hon. Member for Gillingham and Rainham (Naushabah Khan) spoke passionately about her constituency and how hard she will work for her constituents. It is an absolute honour to speak in this David Amess Adjournment debate. We heard moving tributes from people who knew him. We aspire to be MPs who are even half as good as he was for his constituency.

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Kemi Badenoch starts in denial about partygate

Embed from Getty Images

It is very encouraging to see a black woman leading a British political party for the first time. However, the Guardian reports on Kemi Badenoch’s initial interview as leader, on BBC One’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme:

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US election – be ready for a long wait

Liberal Democrat Voice will be covering the US election results tonight and during subsequent days, giving you the chance to add your comments as the results unfold.

Concerning the US presidential and congressional elections, there are two things I can be relatively sure of:

1. The initial vote counts (because unlike the UK, the USA vote counts are released on the web as they are counted and before a state result) are likely to show that Trump is winning. This is because the postal votes (or “absentee ballots”) are generally counted after election day ballots, and they tend to favour the Democrats. Conversely, electyion day ballots tend to favour the Republicans. So the election day ballots, which tend to be counted first, could show Trump ahead.

2. Donald Trump will come out very early, perhaps as early as an hour after polls close, and declare that he has won, and say that if the count shows that he has lost then there has been Democrat fiddling with the results. Worryingly, this sets the scene for potential street violence.

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Care Leaver Status as a Protected Characteristic

Following recommendations from the Independent Review of Children’s Social Care headed by Josh McCallister of the Local Government Association, our Corporate Parent Advisory Committee (CPAC) decided to raise the issue of care experience in Newcastle, and were grateful for the original lead by the Redcar and Cleveland Lib Dem Group, which we adopted to present as a Cross Party Motion to full Council on 2 October.

Making care experience a protected characteristic is a National Issue which broadens corporate parenting responsibilities across a wider set of public bodies and organisations. It could motivate employers, businesses, public services, and policy makers to develop policies and programmes promoting better outcomes for care experienced people. It would also make the UK the first country in the world to recognise care experienced people in this way.

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Janey Godley’s passing and lessons in political tribalism

As many readers will have seen in mainstream and social media, we lost the much loved Scottish comedian Janey Godley to cancer on Saturday (2 November 2024). Janey has been open on social media about her struggles with cancer and everyone knew that she was in her final days. Across public life in Scotland and the wider UK, figures from the world of entertainment and politics were quick to post glowing, and very fitting, tributes.

Many ordinary people posted tributes to social media too. I was one of them. In posting to Twitter (it will always be Twitter even after Musk finally forces me to give up using it), I noticed that I was quick to point out that that our “politics didn’t always coincide”. While true, I have been thinking since why I felt it necessary to use this form of words.

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5 million people unable to get through to their doctor as Lib Dems warn GPs must be exempt from Budget tax hike

  • One in four people who contacted their GP in the past month couldn’t get through on the day they called
  • Lib Dems warn that the government’s National Insurance hike is a “tax on community care” that will make crisis worse
  • Party calls for GPs to be exempt from the tax hike alongside other health and care provider

Over 5 million people tried to contact their GP in the past month but failed to get through on the day they called, House of Commons Library research commissioned by the Liberal Democrats has revealed.

The Liberal Democrats are calling for GPs to be exempt from the employers National Insurance rise, as well as social care providers, warning that it is a “tax on community care.”

The Library’s research, based on an ONS survey published on the 10th October, showed that 22.4 million people tried to contact their GP in the previous 28 days. Of these, 5.2 million were unable to get through to their GP on the day that they called, meaning nearly one in four people who wanted to get through to their GP could not.

According to the Library’s research, a further 1.2 million people were unsuccessful in contacting their GP at all that month.

It comes amid warnings the hike to the employers’ National Insurance (NI) rate from 13.8% to 15% in the budget will push up GP surgery staff costs.

The government has not set money aside to compensate surgeries for this increase and GP surgeries are not eligible for Employment Allowance that shields the smallest employers from the rise in NI.

For example an employee earning £30,000 a year will cost the practice an additional £866 and the average GP surgery will see their annual costs increase significantly.

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Welcome to my day: 4 November 2024 – “I’ve got a ticket to ride”

I found myself enjoying some free bus rides yesterday. And no, I don’t have a concessionary bus pass – I’m not that old… yet – but our local Transport Museum here in Ipswich was having a vintage running day, with a collection of vintage buses operating three routes around the town. It all seemed somehow appropriate given the controversy over bus fares this week.

In choosing to freeze fuel duty whilst partially removing the fare cap on bus journeys, Rachel Reeves made a curious choice. Whilst yes, it will be popular with motorists, cheaper bus fares have been a boon to those outside major cities where the fare cap had little or no impact – in London, for example, the flat fare is £1.75. And, by shifting the financial incentives further towards cars, it hardly sends out a message that the Government is taking Net Zero seriously.

But it’s just another clumsy move by a a government which seems capable of little else, at least as far as the media are concerned. Even setting aside the inherent bias of much of the mainstream media though, an administration which came into power offering competence and integrity has burnt through quite a lot of credibility remarkably early in the piece. And, whilst the levels of incompetence and “sleaze” are minor compared to the chaotic shambles that was the Conservative government post-2019, expectations were rather higher.

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2-3 November 2024 – the weekend’s press releases

  • Over 9000 farms in Labour constituencies could be hit by “tractor tax” as Lib Dems call on govt to scrap the hike
  • Partygate comments: Clear the Conservative party hasn’t learnt anything

Over 9000 farms in Labour constituencies could be hit by “tractor tax” as Lib Dems call on govt to scrap the hike

An estimated 9,079 farms in Labour constituencies could be hit by the “tractor tax” Liberal Democrat analysis has revealed. Liberal Democrats have called on the government to scrap the planned changes to inheritance tax relief for farms announced in this week’s Budget.

The worst affected Labour seats were Penrith and …

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A scary week ahead

American presidential elections in days of yore were pretty simple. We all went to bed at our usual time and then when we woke up in the morning, we knew who was going to be President.

And then Bush v Gore 2000 happened and it all took a bit longer as we learned about things like “Hanging Chads” and how they affected the vote counts in Florida. It took until 12 December until the Supreme Court stopped the recount and Gore conceded the next day.

In 2020, we spent four long nights and three and a half long days constantly refreshing CNN and agonising in WhatsApp chats before it was clear to everyone except Donald Trump and his followers that Joe Biden had won.

This year I’m not sure I have a big enough cushion to hide behind as the results come in. But before we get too absorbed in the details, take a minute to have a good laugh at Kamala’s appearance on last night’s Saturday Night Live. Pitch perfect:

We are probably not going to know for a while after the polls close whether the US will have a President who will respect women’s rights, put more money back in the hands of the poorest and grow the economy, or someone who will give to his billionaire mates, pursue policies that see more women die because they can’t get medical treatment if they have a miscarriage, and threaten US democracy itself.

The conventional wisdom amongst commentators at the moment is that Donald Trump will get his second term in the White House. Let’s hope they have it as wrong as they had it in 2016 when they all thought Hillary was going to win. We have to remember that part of the reason for the Democrats losing back then was because they were so convinced they were going to win that they stopped spending money in the swing states while Donald Trump spent a fortune on wall to wall advertising.

The Democrats are not making that mistake again. The Harris/Walz campaign has been concentrating on the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. The election will likely be decided on tens of thousands of votes in those places. It’s a bit like how our elections are decided in 100 or so marginal seats across the country except on a bigger scale.

She’s had some help in the past week from Scottish Lib Dem Leader who went out there with some friends (at their own expense) to knock on doors. It’s not the first time he has been out. He turned out to be a good luck charm for Obama in Virginia in 2008. He made some observations on Twitter this week about his trip an the prospects in the election:

The field campaign team there are exceptional but they are utterly exhausted and driving hard for the finish line, I’m proud to know them. They certainly put me to work in getting out the vote.

With over 1k doors knocked across 9 communities in Lackawanna county, PA, I got to see a lot of the Scranton area in stunning autumnal beauty. These are warm, resilient communities, but in many ways they have cause to feel left behind.

This is an exceptionally tight election, everyone knows that, but I’ve never seen tribalism run quite so deep before. Those houses without partisan lawn signs are in the minority and this election is dividing communities and even families, like never before.

A standout highlight for me was getting to meet Tim Walz in person, but above that I will never forget the warmth of the people I met on the doors of Pennsylvania.

My assessment? She can absolutely do it, but turnout is everything.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , and | 4 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

Georgia

If you have a fortune of $5 billion-plus in a country with a GDP of £$24.6 billion you will be a whale in a puddle. Such is the fate of Georgia Dream Party founder and chief backer Bidzina Ivanishvili.

And, if you are willing to part with some of your fortune, you can bend the political structure and electoral systems to your will. Ivanishvili is accused of doing just that in the recent Georgian parliamentary elections which the Dream Party won with 53 percent of the vote,

Bidshina Ivanishvili was born into humble beginnings in 1958 but when the Soviet Union collapsed he moved to Russia to grab what he could in the great Russian carve-up. He ended up with a multinational conglomerate encompassing banking, real estate and heavy industry. He returned to Georgia and in 2011 decided to try his hand at politics by forming the centrist, pro-EU Georgia Dream Party.

Backed with Ivanishvili’s fortune, the Georgia Dream Party won a landslide victory in 2012 elections and Ivanishvili became prime minister. He stepped down a year later saying that he had achieved all his goals and wanted to private life.

But Ivanishvili’s money insured that he remained the power behind the throne. And from that position he subtly tilted the Dream Party towards Russia. At the same time he sought membership with the EU. His behind the scenes influence led critics to brand Ivanishvili the “shadow leader.”

As the years passed it became increasingly difficult to walk the political tightrope between the goal of EU membership and the looming shadow of the bear. To keep Russia happy Georgia Dream introduced anti LGBTQ laws and a Foreign Agents Act. Both laws closely mirrored Russia’s laws on both issues. They also breached EU human rights provisions. As a result the EU broke off negotiations with Georgia.

Georgia Dream’s tilt to Russia was unpopular. Polls showed that 80 percent of Georgians wanted to move closer to the EU as protection from Moscow. All the indications. All the opinion polls, were that after three terms in office, Georgia Dream Party, would lose last week’s election, especially when they campaigned on a promise to ban opposition parties.

They won with 54 percent of the vote. The Opposition, EU election observers, President Biden, and even Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, called foul. They claimed that Ivanishvili’s Dream Party was guilty of “bribery, intimidation and ballot-stuffing.”

The allegations were rejected by Ivanishvili and Dream Party Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. They were welcomed by Hungary’s Vilktor Orban who hopes that eventually Georgia will become another “illiberal democratic” member of the EU. And the Russian bear? It stopped being silent and cheered.

Japan

Japan is a different democratic country. That is the reason for the lack of excitement in the wake of the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s failure to win a majority in the recent election.

The Japanese political system did not evolve over centuries like its Western counterparts. It was imposed on a socially conservative society with a strong respect for traditions, authority and seniority.

The result is a deeply Japanese political foundation with a democratic veneer, but a veneer which Japanese have come to treasure as much as their traditions.

The big word in Japanese politics is “wan” which is defined as being focused on consensus building and group harmony. It contrasts with the adversarial nature of Western politics

The electoral system reflects this consensus building nature. It is a mixed first past the post constituency-based system and proportional representation. The result is that quite often elections lead to a disparity between percentage of votes received and the percentage of seats in the Diet (the Japanese parliament).

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , and | 1 Comment

Ed Davey reacts to Kemi Badenoch becoming Conservative leader

Ed Davey has congratulated Kemi Badenoch on her election as leader of the Conservative Party and has pledged that the Liberal Democrats will be providing the strongest opposition to the Labour Government:

I’d like to congratulate Kemi Badenoch on being elected leader of the Conservative Party. The election of the first Black leader of a major UK political party is a historic moment for the country.

Voters across the country believe her party is too divided, out-of-touch and unable to accept Conservative failures over the past years.

Posted in News | Tagged , and | 7 Comments
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