Liberals Must Rediscover Working Class Politics

The world changed in the early hours of Wednesday morning. Like all Liberal Democrats, I was extremely hopeful the Kamala Harris would be elected as America’s next President. That did not happen. Donald Trump triumphed. Authoritarian nationalism triumphed. The far-right triumphed.

Central to Harris’ defeat was the loss of Latino and even white women voters. But most crucially, it was the loss of working class voters, especially in those vital “rust belt” swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Biden carried these states in 2020 and Obama carried them easily in 2008 and 2012. But the Harris campaign made a fatal error, they failed to realise that it was a cost of living election, they failed to realise the impact of inflation and they failed to realise the disconnect between the Democrats and their traditional working class base.

In 2020, Biden made a virtue out of being “Scranton Joe”. He worked tirelessly to connect with the traditional working class voters in the industrial swing states. And Biden never shied away from championing his support for trade unions. For all the strengths of the Harris campaign, they lost sight of an important political fact. It’s the economy that is always the defining issue of elections and it’s living standards that matter most.

What does all this mean for Liberal Democrats here in the UK? Firstly, we will have to contend with a destructive protectionist and fascistic US President. Secondly, we will need to be on our guard for Trump apologists in our own country that may seek to take Britain down a similar destructive far-right path. But most importantly of all, we need to understand that if progressive liberalism cannot offer an alternative to the injustices faced by working class people, then far-right nationalism will. This is regardless of the consequences that such nationalism poses to liberal democracy. Liberals in Britain and around the world need to reconnect with working class voters.

If liberalism is not strong at ending the injustices that fuel fascism, then fascism will be strong at ending liberalism. Recall the words of the great liberal US President Franklin D Roosevelt, speaking in 1944:

“We have come to a clear realization of the fact that true individual freedom cannot exist without economic security and independence. “Necessitous men are not free men.” People who are hungry and out of a job are the stuff of which dictatorships are made.”

Liberals need to be strong about confronting social hardships. We need to show working class voters and those people left behind by the economy of recent decades, that we are capable of improving their lives, and that we seek to build a democracy that represents them and works for them. We must offer a progressive anti-elitist politics, which is rooted in the liberal tradition, and that will work to offer an effective alternative to both far-right nationalism and far-left authoritarianism.

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Lib Dems mark Remembrance Sunday

It’s 10 years since the stunning and emotive display of ceramic poppies, one for each allied soldier killed in the First World War, at the Tower of London.

Today, the nation marks Remembrance Sunday, 110 years after the war broke out and almost 106 years since it ended.

Ed Davey said:

Remembrance Sunday is such an important day for all of us. We remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country, for our peace and for the future we all share.

We must never forget their sacrifice nor can we forget the veterans, many of whom will march past the Cenotaph today. They still bear the scars, both mental and physical, from their service, and our country can and must do much more to support them.

Alex Cole-Hamilton spoke at Holyrood this week and remembered not only those British soldiers who had died in conflict but Ukrainians who are fighting to protect our freedoms.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Trump is bad news for NATO. 

He damaged it in his first term and again during his campaign when he repeatedly threatened to either withdraw from the alliance or refuse to defend members that failed to meet the target of defence spending of at least two percent of GDP.

“We have been treated badly,” he told a Wisconsin election rally in September, “so badly, mostly by our allies. Our allies treat us actually worse than our so-called enemies. In the military, we protect them, and then they screw us on trade. We’re not going to let it happen anymore.”

Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 20 percent on EU and British goods. The clear implication is that if they want those tariffs reduced or eliminated then Europe’s NATO members will have to accept to spend more on defence which will allow the US to reduce its commitment. It is called transactional diplomacy.

Of course, Trump’s policy does not take into account that by beggaring his allies he also reduces their ability to spend more on defence.

Trump’s policy towards NATO is unpopular with the wider American public. More than 70 percent say they are enthusiastic supporters of the Alliance. This position was mirrored in July 2023 when—in a rare moment bipartisanship—Congress passed legislation which required US withdrawal from NATO to be approved by a two-thirds majority of the Senate, or through legislation which gives Congress a bigger say in overseeing alliances. The legislation was co-sponsored by Marco Rubio who has been tipped for the job of Trump’s Secretary of State.

The legislation, however, does not prevent Trump from closing bases, withdrawing troops or stopping investment or expenditure. Under the constitution, the president has wide powers to make and break treaties and order troops to occupy or withdraw from every part of the world. Trump, if he wanted, could hollow-out America’s commitment to defend Europe and leave America a semi-detached member of the alliance.

So European members of NATO remain NATO. But they sit easy compared to Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky is terrified

The election of Donald Trump raises the real possibility that his country’s lifeline of American military aid will come to a shuddering halt and push Ukraine under the heel of the Russian boot.

Trump has repeatedly opposed the economic drain of aid to Ukraine. He has added that if elected he would end the Ukraine war “in a day.”

The president-elect refuses to go into specifics, but there was a possible hint in a paper written in May by two of Trump’s former security advisers, General Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz.

They suggested that a Trump administration could propose immediate peace talks and a ceasefire based on current military positions. Ukraine would maintain its claim to territories currently occupied by Russia, leaving open the possibility of reunification at a later date. NATO membership—and possibly EU membership as well—would be taken off the table and pushed into an unknown future.

If Ukraine refused the American proposal then the Trump Administration would decrease American military aid. If Russia refused then the US would increase military aid to Ukraine.

Trump’s election could not have come at a worse time for Zelensky. The German government of Olof Scholz is on the verge of collapse. Europeans cannot continue the necessary support on their own and everyone is worried about the new international dimension created by the insertion of 10,000 North Korean troops.

At the same time the war on the ground is not going well. The Russians advance slowly but surely. They recently took the mining town of Selydove.

President Zelensky has ordered the call-up of 160,000 young men over the next three months, which has sent thousands into hiding. Without American support, Ukraine cannot withstand the Russian military steamroller.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is cock-a-hoop

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COP29 Petition: The time has come to end fossil fuel advertising

Just over 50 years ago, the last cigarette commercial aired on American television. It marked the end of an era where tobacco companies could freely advertise their products despite knowing the devastating health effects they caused. Today, we face a similar watershed moment with fossil fuel advertising.

As world leaders gather in Azerbaijan for COP29, we should be stressing the parallels between Big Tobacco’s marketing tactics and those of the fossil fuel industry are striking. Both industries have spent decades promoting products they knew were harmful, while simultaneously casting doubt on scientific evidence. Both have used sophisticated marketing to associate their products with freedom, success, and adventure. And both have targeted younger generations to secure future customers.

The tobacco advertising ban has saved countless lives. Research shows that restricting tobacco advertising and sponsorships has been one of the most effective tools in reducing smoking rates, particularly among young people. Now, as we face a climate emergency, isn’t it time we apply the same logic to fossil fuel advertising?

The Science is Clear

The scientific consensus on climate change is overwhelming. Fossil fuels are the primary driver of global warming, leading to rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and the disruption of ecosystems. The consequences are already evident and will only worsen if we continue on this path.

When you see an SUV commercial showing a vehicle powering through a sleek city centre or a family’s home being kept toasty by a gas boiler, consider the irony: the very products are being advertised are contributing to that areas poor air quality, smog stained buildings and premature deaths. These advertisements normalise and glorify the use of fossil fuels at a time when we need to be rapidly transitioning away from them.

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Observations of an ex pat: Moral compass discarded

The world’s liberal democracies suffered a major defeat this week. Its autocracies have chalked up a major win.

Illiberal populist demagogues have for the past few years scored a series of outright victories, or, at least significant advances in the world’s democracies—Hungary, Israel, Georgia, Slovakia, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Sweden…. They have all swung their political barometers towards the far right.

And now, the biggest prize, the United States, has been secured by an angry misogynistic, racist, iconoclastic, divisive, narcissistic, nationalistic, vindictive, authoritarian, mercurial, dishonest, lying, corrupt convicted felon.

The impact of the re-election of Donald J. Trump will have a resounding impact on the world. It has already left a deep and damaging impression on America’s moral standing in the world.

In 1630, as the ship Arabella crossed the Atlantic towards the struggling Massachusetts Bay Colony, future colonial leader John Winthrop gave a sermon in which he expressed the hope that the colony would become a “Shining City on the Hill”—ie a moral example to the rest of the world.

That is how America has projected itself since before independence in 1776.  In reality manna has too often triumphed over morality. But through the centuries Americans have fervently clung to their shining self-image and many others around the world have bought into it—until now.

Americans are angry. On the domestic front they are angry at an amorphous “deep state” which has failed to deliver the perpetual prosperity they have come to expect. They are angry at the rest of the world for what they see as exploiting their better nature.

Americans are also scared. They are scared of losing their jobs to low-paid illegal immigrants. They are even more scared of losing their cultural identity. And on the international front, they are scared of being knocked off their plinth by the Chinese.

So Americans have elected an angry man who has successfully tapped into a rich political vein of fear. He will do well out of it. For a start, Donald J. Trump has avoided prison and will now undoubtedly use the presidency to augment his several billions.

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Scottish Liberal Democrats post big vote share gain across autumn elections

Alex Cole-Hamilton has today hailed increases in Lib Dem vote share in Aberdeenshire and Moray as he set out how his party have been the big vote share winners in the autumn by-elections.

Since the general election in July, the Scot Lib Dems have gained more vote share than any other party (up 4.5%). Scottish Labour are up 3.8%, the Scottish Conservatives are down 2.6% and the SNP are down 3.7%,

In all four of the by-elections the party contested this week, it saw an increase in vote share including +15.2% in Mearns in Aberdeenshire, within 88 votes of overtaking the SNP …

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ALDC’s by-election report, 7 November 2024

By-elections are slowly ramping up again as we see 9 principal council seats up for grabs this week. It was a SNP wipeout in Scotland as they lost all 4 seats they were defending to the Tories, and failed to gain 1 from a weak Labour. Other than their seat in Scotland, Labour also held another in England and gained one from an unorganised Conservative party. Green party held the only seat they were defending, and Reform won a seat from the Conservatives, the second reform gain in two weeks. The Lib Dems contested 6 of the 9 wards this time around and have made great gains in vote share in most.

In the Mearns ward in Aberdeenshire Council, the Lib Dems finished a strong third, only 77 votes away from SNP in the third stage of counting! The Tories won the seat. Well done and thank you to Isobel Knights and the team for almost quadrupling our vote here.

Aberdeenshire Council, Mearns (first preference results, Conservative elected at stage 4)
Conservative: 1347 (39.2%, +7.5%)
SNP: 832 (24.2%, -4.8%)
Liberal Democrat (Isobel Knights): 745 (21.7%, +15.2%)
Reform: 375 (10.9%, new)
Green Party: 136 (4.0%, +0.6%)

Another strong showing from the Lib Dems can be seen in Aberdeenshire Council in Central Buchan, where we also came third overall. The Conservatives also won this seat from the SNP. Thank you to Ian Bailey and the team for growing the Lib Dem vote.

Aberdeenshire Council, Central Buchan (first preference results, Conservative elected at stage 5)
Conservative: 1260 (41.3%, +8.0%)
SNP: 869 (28.5%, -2.6%)
Liberal Democrat (Ian Bailey): 435 (14.3%, +1.2%)
Reform: 331 (10.9%, new)
Scottish Family Party: 83 (2.7%, +1.3%)
Independent: 71 (2.3%, new)

The final by-election of Aberdeenshire Council this week in Fraserburgh & District saw the same result of a Conservative gain from SNP. Thank you to Sandy Leslie for flying the Scottish Lib Dem flag here.

Aberdeenshire Council, Fraserburgh & District
Conservative: 1145 (36.3%, +3.9%)
SNP: 895 (28.4%, +8.4%)
Reform: 817 (25.9%, new)
Liberal Democrat (Sandy Leslie): 222 (7.0%, +2.2%)
Scottish Family Party: 71 (2.3%, +1.3%)

Also in Scotland, Neil Alexander, the Lib Dem candidate for the Elgin City South ward in Moray Council, ran a good campaign and grew our vote five times over. Thank you to Neil and the local team for building a solid base for future elections in Moray.

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Preparing for Trump Presidency Two Electric Boogaloo

Many of us felt despondent at the results of the 2024 Presidential election. Bitterness, despair, disgust and fear. It is only natural given how the world’s most powerful country has elected a dangerous, destructive demagogue.

But it is not enough to fall into moral outrage. We must prepare for the coming storm and what could be an end to Atlanticism.

Liberalism has not faced a more powerful foe since the Cold War. The underpinnings of our national security strategy have been thrown into question. Our access to international markets has been thrown into doubt, undermining our prosperity. The threat of climate change has become even more menacing. Meanwhile, our politics threatens to be overrun reactionaries embolden by Trump’s example.

To be complacent is to invite economic, political, ecological and social ruin. To hope that fawning over Trump and his courtiers, in hope of being spared the worst of his mercurial nature, is a high-stakes gamble. Given Trump’s longstanding admiration of autocrats of their perceived strength, our best bet to project strength.

The good news is that we are not alone in this. Most of America’s many allies face the exact same dilemma. As Sir Ed Davey has said, its imperative that we rebuild our relationship with the EU and seek further integration. High tariffs on all our American exports will halve our anaemic and much need economic growth. Greater integration with the single market would offset some of effects of these tariffs, whilst giving us a stronger bargaining position with Trump over the incoming trade talks.

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Trump’s Election: A wake up call for Europe and Britain

The recent election of Donald Trump as President of the United States marks a pivotal shift in the transatlantic alliance, forcing Europe to reassess its position on defence, economic policy, and international relations. For Great Britain, the European Union, and NATO allies, Trump’s presidency presents both immediate and long-term challenges. His ambivalence toward NATO’s traditional role, compounded by isolationist and protectionist policies, signals a tectonic change in the foundation of post-World War II alliances. With Trump back in office, Europe must adopt a more strategic, coordinated, and self-reliant approach to ensure regional stability and security.

Trump’s stance on NATO introduces real uncertainty into Europe’s defence calculus. Historically, NATO has underpinned European security, offering a powerful deterrent against aggressors like Russia. However, Trump’s prior remarks about “free-riding” by European nations and his willingness to reconsider U.S. commitments cast doubt on the assumption that the U.S. will always be the principal guarantor of European security. This is particularly concerning as Russia’s actions in Ukraine demonstrate the enduring risk of territorial aggression on the continent. Europe, therefore, faces a strategic imperative to assume a larger share of its defence burden, fortify its military capabilities, and reinforce collective defence mechanisms.

The European Union and NATO must now confront their limitations in readiness, force projection, and rapid response capability. While NATO’s Article 5 provides a mutual defence framework, its effectiveness is compromised if member states lack interoperability and standardized response capabilities. Thus, Europe’s emphasis must shift toward enhancing interoperability among its forces, modernizing its military infrastructure, and bolstering cybersecurity defences. Major urban centres like Milan, Geneva, Krakow, Berlin, and London must be prepared to withstand a range of threats, from cyber incursions to hybrid warfare and missile strikes. Europe’s major powers, particularly Germany and France, need to accelerate their defence spending and expand joint military exercises to build a resilient and autonomous defence posture.

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7 November 2024 – today’s press releases

  • ONS GP Survey: Two in five who could not get through to GP did nothing about symptoms
  • Interest rate cut: Govt must work to deliver growth, especially through small businesses
  • Davey to visit Ukraine charity: “Leaders across Europe must stand up to Putin”

ONS GP Survey: Two in five who could not get through to GP did nothing about symptoms

Responding to the latest ONS Survey, which showed that two in five (39%) people who were unable to contact their GP in the past month opted to do nothing about their ailment, Liberal Democrat Health and Social Care spokesperson, Helen Morgan MP said:

Our primary care services are at breaking point. Patients are left completely without options, instead letting their issues get worse when they are unable to get the care they need.

The blame for this shocking state of affairs lies squarely with the Conservative Party whose years of shameful neglect has broken our NHS.

It is now down to the new government to rise to this challenge and rescue our health service. That is why it is so disappointing to see that instead of supporting our GPs they are piling more pressure on them with their national insurance hike.

The new government needs to urgently rethink these proposals, scrap the GP penalty and get patients the care they deserve.

Interest rate cut: Govt must work to deliver growth, especially through small businesses

Commenting after the Bank of England has cut interest rates to 4.75%, Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson Daisy Cooper MP said:

This is welcome news for families across the country who are still living with the consequences of Conservative economic failure.

Notwithstanding, millions of households are still struggling with sky high mortgage payments two years on from the Conservatives’ disastrous mini-budget.

The burden of fixing the Conservatives’ mess has fallen on struggling households for too long. As rates are cut, the new Government must work to deliver growth in the economy, especially through small businesses and high streets.

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Why Poland is the place to be/ place to go to?

I remember it really, really well. No more queues to buy basic ingredients, regular visits to the Police station, inability to travel to countries outside of the Iron Curtain. Late 1980’s and beginning of 1990’s in the Eastern Europe and Poland have seen a seismic political and economic transformation, which included first free elections,

As a teenager, through my church community, in the middle of 1990’s, I was lucky enough to visit Italy on a few occasions. My deep desire to move around was so strong! Yes, our passports had to be checked at each border, however visiting some of the world landmarks was truly beyond extraordinary. On the other hand, I also felt a bit of resentment and “human jealousy”. After many years of oppression, stagnation, Poland was re-starting its journey towards prosperity. We had so much catching-up to do. It did feel at times like a mission impossible. Despite some difficult “post Berlin Wall beginnings”, I always felt very proud to be Polish.

In 2001, I left Poland for Croatia, where I had an opportunity to start my MA in History. After completing my University and after getting married, we moved to Italy and then eventually to the United Kingdom.

Since settling in Britain in 2005, I have been frequently traveling to Poland. Sometimes, you need to look back at the journey of your nation, the grief, suffering and sacrifice of many, to appreciate even more the positive transformation, some superb outcomes in my homeland. People often ask, what are the key ingredients of the Polish story?

I think that we often forget that Poland is the sixth economy in the EU. It is the 5th most populous country in the EU and 9th largest country in Europe. Moreover, the Polish GDP growth is expected to be around 3.1% in 2024, whereas in the UK only around 1.1%. Poland, for a number of years now, has been the biggest beneficiary nation of the EU funds, which in my view, have been wisely spent on key infrastructure projects. Something unimaginable 30 years ago e.g. motorway drive across Poland from Lublin to Wroclaw, is now a reality.

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The Independent View: “The Rising Price of Freedom”

In 2011, Paddy Ashdown made a critical observation:

We are all now deeply, deeply, deeply interconnected… the idea of a nation state acting alone, not connected with others, not working with others, is no longer a viable proposition. Because the actions of a nation state are neither confined to itself, nor is it sufficient for the nation state itself to control its own territory, because the effects outside the nation state are now beginning to affect what happens inside them.

This led Ashdown to a deep commitment to multilateral cooperation, one which is at the heart of Liberal Democrat values—liberty, equality, democracy, community, human rights, internationalism, and environmentalism. Liberal internationalism, rooted in these values, has shaped the party’s support for open markets, cooperative security, and strong global institutions. It’s no surprise, then, that the Liberal Democrats remain steadfast advocates for EU membership and a proactive global role for the UK.

This liberal internationalist outlook has defined the Liberal Democrats for generations, and with 72 MPs in Parliament, it’s time to drive a more active, collaborative UK foreign policy.

As Labour unveiled its first Autumn Statement this year, however, the UK’s foreign policy prospects look bleak.

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Don’t blame us for Trump

A friend of mine in Florida, who only recently became an American decades after marrying one, cast her vote for Kamala Harris early, to keep Donald Trump (or the ‘orange stain’, as she calls him) out of the White House. However, four million US nationals will have had no say in the matter; while all US citizens are nationals, not all US nationals are citizens, disenfranchising them further.

When Trump-supporting comedian Tony Hinchcliffe described Puerto Rico as ‘a floating island of garbage’, it was a particularly low blow given that its residents have no vote in the presidential election, despite being US citizens, and its only representation in Congress is a non-voting Resident Commissioner in the House of Representatives, with none in the Senate.

Historically, before being admitted to the Union, many states, then territories, elected non-voting delegates to the House as a first step to achieving statehood, but since Hawaii in 1959, no territory has been admitted. Puerto Rico, the most populous of them, is divided on the issue, with some favouring statehood, others independence, and others the status quo, while in the US itself, Republicans are lukewarm, dreading an increased number of Democrats on Capitol Hill.

In my innocence, I thought that the reason for this limited political representation was because Puerto Rico, along with the US Virgin Islands, Guam, the Northern Marianas and American Samoa, was because they weren’t subject to federal taxes, a case of no representation without taxation, but there are more unsavoury reasons, hence them being ‘foreign in a domestic sense’.

When most of them were acquired following the Spanish-American War, there was a Supreme Court ruling that they were inhabited by ‘alien races’ unable to be governed by ‘Anglo-Saxon principles’, and therefore the Constitution didn’t have to apply there, and by extension, nor did voting rights. Despite only being supposed to apply ‘for a time’, it does so to this day, having been extended to the formerly Danish US Virgin Islands, the formerly German American Samoa, and the Japanese Northern Marianas, which only have non-voting delegates in Congress.

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There are ways to achieve peace in the Middle East

Many Israelis think they face ‘annihilation’ by Iran and their proxies, and that this means their wars in Gaza and Lebanon fall outside the boundaries set by the international rules of war.  The fear of annihilation didn’t come out of nowhere, but although there has been some fiery rhetoric about Israel’s right to exist over the years, Iran doesn’t seriously believe it could destroy Israel, especially given that it’s backed by the US.  The ‘existential’ distress Israelis feel is more likely an expression of the deep insecurity affecting many Jews around the world, and it originates not from their treatment by Arabs or Iranians, but from centuries of racial abuse and persecution in Europe.  Understanding and accepting this as the underlying cause of the unrestrained assaults on Gaza and Lebanon ought to be fundamental to the peace process.

As things stand, Israel’s Prime Minister won’t listen to calls for restraint, even from the UN or international courts, not because he is mad, or is fighting to stave off corruption charges, or is bent on destroying hopes for a two-state solution, but because he knows that many Israelis think they are in fight for their survival, which on their view means all the normal rules go out of the window.

The fear of annihilation touches a deep place in the human psyche.  When psychoanalysts discuss the war in Gaza they speak of paranoia brought on by Israelis never being allowed to forget the Holocaust, and how that can make them seek refuge in feelings of omnipotence.  The feeling of omnipotence is a delusional state of mind, but it must have been a very seductive delusion to fall back on after the  horrific Hamas attack on October 7 last year.

Most outside observers judge the Israeli response to the threat from Hamas as having been wildly disproportionate, and think it has strayed far beyond its initial purpose – retaliation (or perhaps revenge) for the killing of so many Israeli civilians.  To most of us it’s clear that Netanyahu could end the war in Gaza and Lebanon and get the remaining hostages back simply by giving up on the idea of an enlarged ‘Greater Israel’ and conceding that the Palestinians have a right to their homeland in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza.  Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah have all said as much – that they would stop attacking Israel if it agreed to end the Occupation.  Jordan’s envoy to the UN has gone further and said the Arab states of the Middle East would guarantee Israel’s security if it ended the bombardment of Gaza and backed the two-state solution.

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WATCH: Ed Davey question Keir Starmer on Trump re-election

Today at PMQs, Ed used his questions to challenge Keir Starmer on the UK Government’s approach to the incoming Trump administration.

The text is below:

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Alex Cole-Hamilton on Trump victory

Two weeks ago,  Scottish Lib Dem Leader Alex Cole-Hamilton was in Scranton, Pennsylvania, using a week of holiday to knock up for Kamala Harris.

Today he spoke to BBC Scotland about his worries about a second Trump presidency.

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LibLink – Christine Jardine: How the UK should deal with four more years of Donald Trump

Christine Jardine has written for the Scotsman about how the UK should deal with the second Trump presidency.

Like most Lib Dems, she has focused on the need to strengthen our relationships with our European partners.

The news from the US dampened the mood at Westminster:

Wednesday morning too was cloaked in a cloud of gloom as MPs considered the prospect of an American president whose protectionist instincts and apparently dismissive attitude to Nato and European defence leaves us worried for the future. I do not want contemplate the dread that must have been felt in Ukraine about what it might mean for the support on which their war effort depends.

Then, of course, there are the implications for so many American women and their right to choose what is best for them and their bodies.

We need to work together, at home and with Europe:

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Defending Liberalism in a Trumpian world

World politics is going to be rough in the next few years – and British politics will be increasingly difficult, too.  Trump’s victory means that the USA’s role in global affairs will be highly unpredictable.  But we can predict that American influence will not be constructive on a range of global issues, from combatting climate change to managing the world economy and containing conflicts, and is unlikely to be affected by consideration for British or European concerns.  So how do we respond?

Ed Davey’s first response to Trump’s victory was spot on.  We need to defend and promote liberal values and prioritise rebuilding closer relations with our European neighbours.  Neither of those are easy.  Illiberal movements are gaining ground in many democratic countries, including within the EU.  Liberal democracy gains most support when economies are growing, societies are stable and international relations are peaceful.  Even without the added complications of an incoherent and unfriendly US Administration, the challenges of preventing catastrophic climate change, of coping with the mass movement of people that climate change and regional conflicts are already driving, of moving towards a sustainable global economy and resisting Chinese and Russian expansionism would be hard to manage – and harder to persuade the British electorate to share the cost.

There will no doubt be a flood of analyses of why a majority of American voters supported Trump.  But discontent at the economic and social disruption of their lives, and disillusion with the ‘elites’ who – as they see it – allowed disruptive change to sweep from outside through their communities, were major factors.  Those discontents are widespread in Britain as well.  The ‘left behind’ in northern and coastal towns feel similarly abandoned by educated elites and multinational corporations.  You Gov tracker polls show that the answer to the question ‘Are members of Parliament in touch with the public or not?’ has consistently shown around 70% answering ‘out of touch’ and 10-12% ‘in touch’ over the past five years.  Those in the Brexit Referendum who were saying ‘I want my country back’ were expressing a similar sense of loss to Trump supporters who want to ‘Make America Great Again.’

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Ed Davey calls Trump a “dangerous, destructive demagogue”

Ed Davey has called on the Government to fix our broken relationship with the EU in his first comments since Donald Trump won the US election. And he did not mince his words about the President-Elect, referring to him as a dangerous, destructive, demagogue.

He said:

This is a dark, dark day for people around the globe. The world’s largest economy and most powerful military will be led by a dangerous, destructive demagogue.

The next President of the United States is a man who actively undermines the rule of law, human rights, international trade, climate action and global security.

Millions of Americans – especially women and minorities – will be incredibly fearful about what comes next. We stand with them.

Families across the UK will also be worrying about the damage Trump will do to our economy and our national security, given his record of starting trade wars, undermining NATO and emboldening tyrants like Putin.

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The lamp beside the golden door has dimmed a little

After a surprisingly good sleep, I’ve woken up. I’ve done a quick review of the latest on CNN and the web.

Then I switched over to an excellent BBC documentary called “Scotland – The New Wild”. It is remarkable. It has some excellent footage of basking sharks.

In the past, I have looked to USA for vicarious inspiration. While UK domestic politics has been rather depressing, USA has provided a refreshing relief – some
inkling of a better approach for civic life.

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7:30 am update: Lib Dems react to US election outcome

It’s not officially over yet, but it looks very much as though Donald Trump has won the US Presidential election and that the Republicans have won the Senate. And with Supreme Court Justices likely to retire, Trump has the chance to reinforce the already iron grip of conservatives on the Supreme Court.

It’s a very bleak morning. This is the result I have feared for a long time but allowed myself to hope that Kamala Harris might just pull off a victory.

In the 3 months since she became the Republican nominee, she has barely put a foot wrong as a candidate. She’s run a positive, optimistic campaign. She did not repeat the mistakes of 2016 when the Democrats withdrew from the key battleground states because they thought they had won.

If there was anything she could have done better, it was land a hopeful economic message. She also didn’t land the blame on Trump and the Republicans for blocking measures which would have improved people’s economic situation like a child tax credit and paid family leave.

She had to contend also with the Middle East situation. That undoubtedly lost her some votes – and probably from both sides.

Anyway, senior Lib Dems have started to process the news. This is what they are saying on social media:

Layla Moran, until recently our foreign affairs spokesperson:

Votes not yet all in but looks like hate is winning. The implications for security across the globe cannot be underestimated. Ukraine. Middle East. China. The UK will need to reevaluate its geopolitical centre of gravity.

Tim Farron:

Oh well!! 🇺🇸 😱 First thoughts…. The UK now needs to do one thing the left/liberals won’t like (establish strong early relationships with the Trump administration) and one thing the right won’t like (scrap all barriers to trade with Europe/increase military co-operation).

Mike Martin:

The UK immediately needs to:

– Increase defence spending rapidly (rather than shrinking its army)
– Focus its military strategy on deterring Russian aggression in Europe (rather than confronting ‘global threats’)
– Work with European allies to defend Europe under a NATO that doesn’t have US support (rather than assuming that America guarantees European security).

Chris Coughlan:

With the geopolitical shock of a likely Trump win the UK needs to move immediately back closer to our European allies- including reopening the issue of the single market

Freddie Van Mierlo

As the results of the US Presidential election still come in, the U.K. must urgently consider its position in Europe and our security. Slava Ukraini

Vikki Slade

This is just devastating – the world is moving in a scary way & I fear for all those vulnerable groups in USA but across the world.
Why would a country fall for such a con?

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6am update: It really isn’t looking good

Since my last update at the back of 4, the outlook for Kamala Harris has become a lot bleaker. Trump is ahead in all of the battleground states and it looks like he is on course to win the popular vote.

It’s not over yet, but it’s not where anyone of a liberal disposition would want us to be at this stage of the count.

What’s worse is that it looks like the Republicans will have control of the Senate and the House is a bit of a toss up.

If you need reminding, Donald Trump is a convicted felon who refused to accept his defeat in 2021, leading to an insurrection which he encouraged. He tried to get his then Vice President to refuse to certify the results of the election.  He has been ordered to pay $83 million to E Jean Carroll after he called her a liar for accusing him of sexually assaulting her. He still has outstanding court cases relating to the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection.

When he was last in office, he appointed 3 conservative Supreme Court Justices who overturned the historic Roe vs Wade ruling which guaranteed a federal right to abortion. This has led to abortion bans in many states which are so stringent that women who have miscarriages are being denied life-saving procedures.

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4 am update: Harris campaign “searching for bright spots”

I have just woken up and am catching up on how things are going.

And it’s not looking good, to be honest.

At this time in 2020, it didn’t look that good either and then it got better. However, CNN’s John King is now looking at Georgia and is saying that it looks more like 2016, when Trump won than 2020 when he eventually lost. He says it is possible that Harris can win the state, but “you would rather be Donald Trump in Georgia right now.” Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 result in 28 of the 159 counties.

The battleground is now very much in the 3 “rust belt” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. At this point, Trump is ahead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but there’s still a while to go.  The “blue wall” is going to be as crucial in the US election as it was in ours.

The Harris campaign does not expect the contest to be resolved tonight.

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Pennsylvania exit polls suggest a different climate than in the south

The CNN exit polls for Pennsylvania show higher responses for voters being concerned about reproductive rights and the state of democracy, compared to the numbers in Georgia and North Carolina.

Indications are that Philadelphia has seen higher than expected turnout, particularly in areas with high populations of those of Puerto Rican heritage.

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Nancy Pelosi predicts that the Democrats will win the House

Nancy Pelosi told CNN today:

“Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House. I don’t know what the margin will be, but I know that we have the votes to win the House.”

With the Republicans highly likely to take control of the US Senate, this suggests a split congress for whoever becomes the next President.

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First results not encouraging for Harris

I’m watching Election night on CNN, which provides a very pithy, statistical coverage of the results.

My first takeaways are not encouraging for Kamala Harris. Mind you we are very short of tea leaves to read so far.

A Florida county which Biden won by several points is showing Harris trailing Biden’s number.

In Georgia, it’s very early in the counting process. Independents, which make up 31% of the electorate, are going clearly for Trump, whereas Biden won the independents in 2020.

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Maiden speeches: Danny Chambers MP for Winchester

Danny Chambers made his maiden speech on Thursday 12th September in the Sir David Amess Adjournment Debate.

Here is the text of the speech in full:

Thank you Madam Deputy Speaker. That was an interesting maiden speech; it is clear how passionate you are—sorry, Madam Deputy Speaker, I will get this right. The hon. Member for Gillingham and Rainham (Naushabah Khan) spoke passionately about her constituency and how hard she will work for her constituents. It is an absolute honour to speak in this David Amess Adjournment debate. We heard moving tributes from people who knew him. We aspire to be MPs who are even half as good as he was for his constituency.

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Kemi Badenoch starts in denial about partygate

Embed from Getty Images

It is very encouraging to see a black woman leading a British political party for the first time. However, the Guardian reports on Kemi Badenoch’s initial interview as leader, on BBC One’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme:

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US election – be ready for a long wait

Liberal Democrat Voice will be covering the US election results tonight and during subsequent days, giving you the chance to add your comments as the results unfold.

Concerning the US presidential and congressional elections, there are two things I can be relatively sure of:

1. The initial vote counts (because unlike the UK, the USA vote counts are released on the web as they are counted and before a state result) are likely to show that Trump is winning. This is because the postal votes (or “absentee ballots”) are generally counted after election day ballots, and they tend to favour the Democrats. Conversely, electyion day ballots tend to favour the Republicans. So the election day ballots, which tend to be counted first, could show Trump ahead.

2. Donald Trump will come out very early, perhaps as early as an hour after polls close, and declare that he has won, and say that if the count shows that he has lost then there has been Democrat fiddling with the results. Worryingly, this sets the scene for potential street violence.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 3 Comments

Care Leaver Status as a Protected Characteristic

Following recommendations from the Independent Review of Children’s Social Care headed by Josh McCallister of the Local Government Association, our Corporate Parent Advisory Committee (CPAC) decided to raise the issue of care experience in Newcastle, and were grateful for the original lead by the Redcar and Cleveland Lib Dem Group, which we adopted to present as a Cross Party Motion to full Council on 2 October.

Making care experience a protected characteristic is a National Issue which broadens corporate parenting responsibilities across a wider set of public bodies and organisations. It could motivate employers, businesses, public services, and policy makers to develop policies and programmes promoting better outcomes for care experienced people. It would also make the UK the first country in the world to recognise care experienced people in this way.

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