One last polling prediction (and it shows Lib Dems with over 100 MPs)

Just two hours until the exit polls have their say, but if you can’t wait for that … Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com site has run through pretty much every poll result permutation to come up with a range of projections as to how the House of Commons will look on 7th May.

Here’s their official final projection, which shows the Lib Dems in second place by the slimmest of margins (but of course with half the number of Labour MPs) – and the Tories likely to end up running a minority government.

But if you don’t like that version of events, FiveThirtyEight.com has projected eight different scenarios to show what might happen under their proportional swing model.

These range from showing the Lib Dems losing three seats despite increasing our share of the vote to 24% compared with 2005 – through to the Lib Dems almost overtaking Labour in number of MPs if either the Labour vote collapses, or the Lib Dems put on a last-minute surge.

Take your pick …

Read more by or more about .
This entry was posted in General Election.
Advert

Post a Comment

Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

*
*
Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?

Advert



Recent Comments

  • Peter Watson
    @David Raw "Renaming the UBI by a different name doesn’t make it more workable, affordable or justifiable." UBI would be a big idea for Lib Dems, but I genui...
  • Roland
    @MBG “It should not be a choice between economic growth and a sustainable economy, we should be able to have both.” Depends where you draw the basel...
  • Roland
    @Tristan Ward - thanks for the additional information - clearly there is plenty of room for tax and duty increases here, given UK residents in the main won't be...
  • Mary ReidMary Reid
    I realise that you could infer that in the case I mentioned the Council was sending in the bailiffs for Council Tax arrears. That was not the case, and the bail...
  • Gordon
    Peter Watson, Exactly! There are indeed radical ideas floating around but I don’t see the institutional capacity to pick them up, so they eventually drow...