Well, here’s a thing. I didn’t think I would be rushing into print to defend Ming Campbell’s leadership of the Lib Dems.
Last year I voted enthusiastically (although fairly quietly as I was employed by the party at the time) for Chris Huhne. I didn’t think it was wise for the party to opt for a sexagenarian leader just when we had connected so effectively with young voters over issues like Iraq and tuition fees. I feared that he would lead the party to the right and, after 20 years on the green benches would be too focused on the Westminster Game.
But despite the local election results this May, real progress has been made.
Firstly, and least obviously, the party has started to put its own organisational house in order. One reason why so many young and ambitious MPs were desperate for a change of leader was because they were exasperated by Charles Kennedy’s lack of willingness to modernise the party’s campaigning, to focus on strategy and to provide a clear sense of direction.
Those MPs are now in a position to make things happen at the centre – and they have achieved a great deal. The problem they face, of course, is that much of what has been done so far is behind the scenes. And it will take time to bear fruit. But Ming deserves the credit for encouraging the changes that have taken place.
Secondly, the May results themselves were disappointing for many on a personal level, but a deeper analysis shows plenty of reasons to be cheerful. Most notably, the results in the constituencies we already hold were pretty good. And anyone looking north of the Thames can see how weak the Cameron Revolution has been. I’ve blogged elsewhere about attending three election counts this year where we won control of each Council and made gains from the Tories in the process.
Finally, as the third party we are rarely entirely the masters of our own fate. Predicting politics is a mugs game but it seems likely that the polls will not change dramatically between now and the start of the next General Election. The party will then start to get more exposure. And I’m willing to predict that somewhere around the start of week 3 of the campaign the media will get bored with the thin policy gruel offered by Cameron (and Brown’s policy of gruel for all) – Ming’s authority and commitment to civil liberties will position him well against the other leaders.
You might accuse me of a lack of ambition – but the party has made huge advances in the last decade. The level of success we have achieved in recent years should not be taken for granted (anyone who can remember the Richmondshire by-election can agree with that). I am sure that another divisive leadership election right now would bring us nothing but ridicule rather than another great leap forward.
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20 Comments
Amen, brother,
Ed “I am sure that another divisive leadership election right now would bring us nothing but ridicule rather than another great leap forward.”
Problem is Ed the above statment already stands with Ming as leader. If you think people don’t already laugh at us I can take you to many, many places and let you meet many who think we are a national joke….and yes Ming makes it worse…much worse!!
“”Predicting politics is a mugs game but it seems likely that the polls will not change dramatically between now and the start of the next General Election”
…which may be three years away.
That statement might yet come back to bite you!
OTOH, if we could achieve the same percentage of the vote in a General that we got in the recent locals, it would be a cracking result – up 3.9% on 2005, a larger increase than between 2001 and 2005.
We can but hope.
Exactly. Ming is not exactly digging holes in the floor to let the water in is he? He is proving month on month to be an astute, clear, consise, competent, and mature leader of the LibDems, unlike the baggage saddled Gordon Brown, and bandwagon jumping PR junkie Cameron.
Ming has shown himself to be above the yah-boo politics Cameron claimed to be “here to stop”. I am more than happy to renew my membership knowing our party leader is a credible steward of a party showing positive results, and vibrant policies.
Tom, speaking as someone with a truly disastrous record of predicting elections, I realise it might (I still cant figure out why Tom Harkin didnt prove me right and become US president in ’92).
BUT I dont think the election being three years away makes it any more likely to be incorrect. The opposite is probably true – Brown will hang on as long as possible if the polls continue to show Labour and Tories both in the 33-38% range.
We are taught to think in terms of mid term blues and huge swings in poll ratings in mid term but if you look at it, that trend ended around 1993. Since then the trend in poll ratings for all parties has moved very slowly. There was a step change when Cameron took over (when the Tories went up from the 30-33 range to 35-40) and it still remains to be seen whether Brown will have a similar impact.
My point is (and this I might live to regret) is I cant foresee anything that would create the kind of dramatic change in party support equal to Black Wednesday and Blair’s election as Labour leader.
Good post.
But I think polls will probably shift before the GE. Which way, I can´t answer sadly.
The Cameron cult of the personality may yet come back to bite him though.
Big Mak – the danger with anecdotal evidence is that we tend to filter it through our own preferences.
I’d prefer to stick with the polling evidence that suggests we are roughly where we usually are at this point in the electoral cycle – and that after a pretty rough 18 months is no mean achievement.
Shouldn’t you declare your interest Ed(or is it Victor)? In that on passing 40 this week you now have One Foot in the Grave.
Ed “I’d prefer to stick with the polling evidence that suggests we are roughly where we usually are at this point in the electoral cycle – and that after a pretty rough 18 months is no mean achievement”
Oh dear, here we go. The old excuses of being “in the cycle” and “better than under Xor Y in the same stage of their leadership”
History is there to teach us NOT for us to keep repeating. Its like a football team saying 4th place again, same as last year we should be happy ans so should the fans!!…any manager that says that is usual out the door quick time(Mr Wenger beware)
Why are we not looking to improve, why always comparing to past faillings, only we could do that. At least the Tories got sick aof lossing and hate them as we might they have got themselves back in the game…we on the other hand are still not even in the reserves!
Dear Big Mak,
Can you tell us why these ‘people’ you talk to think the LDs are a ‘national joke’ and then point out why Ming makes this ‘worse much worse’?
If I was a betting man, I’d say that feeling was because of Kennedy’s drinking, Oaten and Hughes during the leadership election, and then Lembit being cheeky.
There is a perception about Ming’s age – but does that make us a joke?
This is exactly it. If you ask real people – not anoraks or “politics people” – then only the scandals remain. We have to remind people about our policies, our politics, and our stance, and try and get away from the Oaten/Kennedy/Hughes “affairs” which stick in peoples’ minds.
The LibDems have not exactly collapsed under Ming; there is no panic stations. What we have is the people who did not vote for Menzies in the leadership election using fairly neither-here-nor-there election results to pile on pressure against him. This won’t work (I Hope) because the opinion polls are still strong, the voice is still distinctive – look at how many LibDem voices were on the news following the FoI vote – and the support is still there in many of our target areas.
I know there is no Cameron type swing in support for us, but God help the LibDems if we start hacking our leaders to death every 6 months just because we want a sharp suited youngster at the helm.
You make a convincing argument Ed but these changes are already taking place and would no doubt continue under a new leader. I don’t think a new leadership election would be particularly divisive if (unlikely I know) Ming decided to step down in favour of a better candidate. The problem with the last election wasn’t the election itself, it was the way in which it came about plus some rather cynical leaks to the press from within the party about Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes. So I take your point but I don’t agree.
Expriest, I have plenty of normal, non-political friends, family and many at work who laugh at us, nothing to do with Charlie, nor Simon, Nor Oaten…just plain old boring, undynamic, un-motivating, un-inspiring MING!
Liam he has had near on 18 months, how long is long enough….its the old piece of string argument except when you find the end this time it will be us on 16 % and 30 MPs, death by a thousand cuts is less painfull!
The only thing I’ve learned from this increasingly tedious series of posts is that there are internal trolls as well as external ones.
Come now Paul if thats refering to me I am many things bit not a troll of any kind. You don’t like what I’m saying tough my friend…I am sure on the frint of my membbership card it says something about Freedom…one would think that extends to me expressing my opinion, tedious that it may be!
Ed – great post, and you’re spot on. I too voted enthusiastically for Chris Huhne but am more than happy for Ming to continue as our leader – and indeed dearly hope we don’t do something stupid now. FWIW I don’t think there are any indications that we will.
“DON’T PANIC” was also what it said in large friendly letters on the cover of another esteemed tome, and we’d be wise to adhere to that maxim now.
Happy birthday Ming!
It is not the “panicking” that bothers me, it is the lack of ambition. As I argued elsewhere, the Scottish Lib Dems claim that an upsurge in SNP support had “nothing to do with nationalism”. In which case, what do they have that we do not? They have a leader with vision, plus more forthright policy positions, such as not replacing Trident.
If the SNP can give Labour a whipping, then why not us?
The problem is that polling evidence shows that Ming is not popular, and when the Lib Dems do get more exposure at the next general election, I would have thought our level of support is more likely to go down rather than up.
It is up to Ming from now on. I will be hoping he will come up with something that he has thus far failed to manage, and no one here seems to have a clue as to what that might be.
Do you really want the Lib Dems at around 17% at the next general election?
There is one Lib Dem parliamentarian who was nicknamed Capt Mainwaring by the opposition. It wasn’t Ming though 🙂
the party is in melt down. Leader polls awful and falling, membership crashing, funds drying up, and morale at all time low at Cowley street but if we keep telling ourselves it will be ok then may be a miracle will happen. If you dont believe in miracles it is time to start asking hard questions.