Our place to talk – an independent website for supporters of the Liberal Democrat party in the UK.

The most-read independent website by and for Lib Dem supporters. Not paid for by trade unions or millionaires.

Advert

Tag Archives: adam ludlow

Six months from 7th May 2015: how the polls are looking and what to look for

By Stephen Tall | Fri 7th November 2014 - 2:15 pm

There are three key things about opinion polls.

The first is what matters are trends, not individual poll fluctuations.

The second is they’re snapshots, not forecasts. (A point made by Lord Ashcroft, to his credit, every time he publishes his latest poll finding.)

The third is the next general election won’t be decided by national party vote shares but by who wins in 650 individual seats. (A point often made by PoliticalBetting’s Mike Smithson.)

Here are the trends…

Here’s a graph which focuses solely on the first of these. It shows the result of every single opinion poll – courtesy Mark Pack’s invaluable spreadsheet – in the 12 months from October 2013 to September 2014 (incl.):

Continue reading »

Posted in Polls | Also tagged anthony wells, comres, lord ashcroft, mike smithson and yougov | 69 Comments

Most Read

Op-eds

The Brexit Referendum – 10 years on (Callum Robertson)
One year on, and I’m still finding it hard to feel pride (Rebecca Jones)
Andy Burnham’s housing challenge: Why his own arguments demand more than Labour’s current plans (Iain Donaldson)
ALDC’s by-election report – 18th June (Joe Nutt)
Mathew on Monday: Starmer’s resignation and an increasingly ungovernable country (Mathew Hulbert)

Advert

Recent Comments

expats
Tristan, % differences are largely meaningless.. Germany boasts a nominal GDP of approximately $5.4 trillion, making it Europe's largest economy. The UK's no...
Peter Martin
"In the decade since that day.......We have missed out on roughly 6-8% of growth" Where does this figure come from? In any case, we didn't actuall...
Richard Flowers
Dear Rebecca, It is you who gives me hope and lets me take Pride. Thanks to your tireless work, and other members of the Plus committee and community, you�...
George Thomas
Have just come from the latest post discussing Welsh Lib Dems struggles to a post regarding better transport. Does this mean support for retrospective funding f...
Tristan Ward
“Let’s start by arguing that the economic benefits of the Single Market far exceed having to accept freedom of movement into the UK, and take it from there....