Tag Archives: adam ludlow

Six months from 7th May 2015: how the polls are looking and what to look for

There are three key things about opinion polls.

The first is what matters are trends, not individual poll fluctuations.

The second is they’re snapshots, not forecasts. (A point made by Lord Ashcroft, to his credit, every time he publishes his latest poll finding.)

The third is the next general election won’t be decided by national party vote shares but by who wins in 650 individual seats. (A point often made by PoliticalBetting’s Mike Smithson.)

Here are the trends…

Here’s a graph which focuses solely on the first of these. It shows the result of every single opinion poll – courtesy Mark Pack’s invaluable spreadsheet – in the 12 months from October 2013 to September 2014 (incl.):

poll trends 2014

Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , , and | 69 Comments
Advert



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarPaul Barker 20th Mar - 9:53am
    With May now asking for a delay of 3 Months & The EU demanding a concrete reason for delay another General Election now seems a...
  • User AvatarCatherine Jane Crosland 20th Mar - 9:36am
    David Raw and Lorenzo, thank you so much for your supportive comments. I'd just like to make it clear that I was not actually offended...
  • User AvatarYeovil Yokel 20th Mar - 9:26am
    If it’s in the Daily Torygraph, Richard Underhill, then it must be true.
  • User AvatarDavid Becket 20th Mar - 9:21am
    Looks as if it has been kicked into the long grass, not a single press release on this major issue, and cannot find anything on...
  • User Avatarchris moore 20th Mar - 9:18am
    Excellent article and subsequent comments and links. Thanks to the Davids and others.
  • User AvatarDavid Hughes 20th Mar - 9:17am
    Regarding the difficulties of 'whipping' this group, the task in fact fell to Jo Grimond from the point of his first election in 1950 until...