Tag Archives: adam ludlow

Six months from 7th May 2015: how the polls are looking and what to look for

There are three key things about opinion polls.

The first is what matters are trends, not individual poll fluctuations.

The second is they’re snapshots, not forecasts. (A point made by Lord Ashcroft, to his credit, every time he publishes his latest poll finding.)

The third is the next general election won’t be decided by national party vote shares but by who wins in 650 individual seats. (A point often made by PoliticalBetting’s Mike Smithson.)

Here are the trends…

Here’s a graph which focuses solely on the first of these. It shows the result of every single opinion poll – courtesy Mark Pack’s invaluable spreadsheet – in the 12 months from October 2013 to September 2014 (incl.):

poll trends 2014

Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , , and | 69 Comments
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Recent Comments

  • User AvatarJohn Chandler 17th Jan - 1:49pm
    There's also the, not-insignificant, matter of the 12 million registered voters who did not vote in the referendum. Now, I believe there is some indication...
  • User AvatarPeter Martin 17th Jan - 1:47pm
    @ Chris Moore, Yes this is possible. It's been a similar story in Ireland. Countries can do quite well in the eurozone if they can...
  • User AvatarChris Bertram 17th Jan - 1:36pm
    "... half-truths of the Leave campaign ..." That's a bit generous, isn't it?
  • User AvatarMichael 1 17th Jan - 1:23pm
    People may be interested in an academic paper by Warwick University academics at https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/394-2018_fetzer.pdf based on the big Survation poll in November This has two...
  • User AvatarSteve Trevethan 17th Jan - 12:59pm
    Perhaps we need to develop, and make quickly understood, an economic policy/set of of policies which stop the transfer of money from the "real world...
  • User Avatarchris moore 17th Jan - 12:55pm
    Hello Peter, interestingly, around three years ago, Spain passed from a persistent current account déficit to a modest current account surplus. (In the midst of...