The Falklands

The Falklands are back in the news. Argentine President Javier Milei has restated claims to “Las Islas Malvinas” and support from America and Chile—which was vital in 1982—is now doubtful.

But 2026 is not 1982. In 1982 there were about 100 Royal Marines at Port Stanley to protect the islands and the Royal Navy ice patrol ship HMS Endurance was facing withdrawal. After the Falklands War the government decided that deterrence was the best strategy.

There are now roughly 1,200–1,500 British military and supporting personnel in the South Atlantic, centred on the Mount Pleasant Complex, where the Royal Air Force bases four Typhoon FGR4 fighters, together with a Voyager tanker and an A400M Atlas transport aircraft. The islands also have radar, ground-based air defence and a rotating infantry company.

At sea, HMS Medway, a River-class offshore patrol vessel, replaced HMS Forth in January 2026 as the Royal Navy’s permanent South Atlantic patrol ship. An attack on the islands would therefore risk giving the attackers a very bloody nose.

Argentina, however, is increasing defence spending. Early control of the air would be key. Argentina has recently purchased 24 former Danish F-16s. The first six operational aircraft arrived in December 2025.

Milei would also need to beef up his navy. The initial 1982 invasion was by sea. Once the airfield at Port Stanley was secured, the Argentines flew in troops on transport aircraft. Defence planners would anticipate a similar requirement today, but this time Argentina would have to neutralise Mount Pleasant and overcome a much stronger British garrison and air-defence system.

The diplomatic position is as important as the military line-up. In 1982 Chile and Argentina were at loggerheads over the Beagle Channel. As a result, the government of Augusto Pinochet provided Britain with vital intelligence, reconnaissance and logistical support.

The Beagle dispute is over and recently President José Antonio Kast reaffirmed Chilean support for Argentina’s “legitimate sovereignty rights” over the Falklands, South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands. He stressed, however, the need for a peaceful resolution to the dispute.

More important is the US position. In 1982 Defence Secretary Caspar Weinberger led the way in pushing for strong American support for Britain. The result was the supply of Sidewinder missiles, satellite communications, intelligence, reconnaissance assistance, logistical support and other supplies. Weinberger was later rewarded with an honorary knighthood.

In 2026 the Pentagon has considered using the Falklands issue as leverage over Britain because of disagreements over the Iran War. On 31 August Trump said Washington was reviewing its position on the islands.

Javier Milei heard Trump. He responded with some sabre-rattling and this week announced tougher sanctions against companies involved in oil exploration around the islands.

Milei is highly sensitive to popularity and retaking the Falklands would be politically explosive. But even without American and Chilean support, a successful Argentine military operation would be extremely difficult. The islands are far better defended than in 1982 and Britain still possesses two aircraft carriers, modern destroyers and nuclear-powered attack submarines.

American help would be useful. But Trump’s help is not necessarily essential.

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