Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Gaza Sceptic

By Tom Arms | Sat 1st August 2026 - 9:34 am

Pardon my scepticism, but I do not think Trump’s recent announcement about Hamas’s disarmament is the diplomatic breakthrough that some commentators are claiming.

For a start, there is Trump’s well-known tendency to jump the diplomatic starting line before the starter has entered the stadium. It is a tendency that has scuppered several delicate diplomatic negotiations.

Usually, Trump’s over-egged statements are designed to deflect from his failings elsewhere. Success in Gaza shifts focus away from the Iran War, confirmation hearings and the rising price of petrol. Or he may be trying to push either Hamas or Israel into a deal.

In this respect, it is important to note that neither Qatar nor Egypt—key members of the negotiating team—have said anything about Hamas, disarmament or Trump’s announcement.

Next, there is Hamas’s statement on the issue which is not that different from its previous statements. Yes, we will disarm as stipulated in phase two of the ceasefire agreement, when and if Israel fulfils its obligations under phase one of the agreement.

Those obligations were to withdraw Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) so that they occupied 53 percent of Gaza. Under phase two it would be reduced to 40 percent and phase three would leave the IDF in control of a 15 percent security perimeter which would eventually disappear.

At the  moment, the IDF controls nearly 70 percent of Gaza. It has built defensive bunkers, established communications systems and knocked down buildings to improve firing sight lines. Army engineers do not build permanent fortifications if they are planning to leave in a few weeks.

Phase one also called on Israel to allow the resumption of humanitarian aid to at least pre-war levels. Before the war there were 700-730 trucks laden with humanitarian aid trundling past Israeli-controlled checkpoints into Gaza. Today there are just over 500. This at a time when the need is far greater with hundreds of thousands of displaced persons living in beachfront tents and receiving all their meals from communal kitchens.

Finally, the ceasefire agreement explicitly said that all fighting would stop immediately. Since the agreement was signed 1,168 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza health officials. In the same period, according to the IDF, four Israeli soldiers died.

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Joe Nutt

ALDC by-election report 30th July

By Joe Nutt | Fri 31st July 2026 - 6:26 pm

Five principal authority elections took place across England and Wales on Thursday 30th July.

The Liberal Democrats were defending one seat in Hampshire, while Plaid Cymru were defending one seat in North Wales. Localist group Residents for Uttlesford (R4U) and Independents were defending one seat each in Essex and Lincolnshire, respectively. Four results have been declared so far, with the final result being counted today.

 

Eastleigh BC, Hedge End South

In Hampshire, the Liberal Democrats were seeking to defend Hedge End South on Eastleigh Borough Council. Eastleigh has been under solid Liberal Democrat control for decades, with our party holding 35 of the 39 council seats prior to this vote.

Despite a five-party field, we successfully held the seat with an increased vote share of 46.1%—up 2.7 points from the previous election. We built on our strong local campaign to extend our lead over the second-placed Conservatives to over 21 percentage points, while Reform UK saw their vote share fall back.

Huge congratulations to the new Liberal Democrat Cllr Jim Paine and the Eastleigh team on a fantastic win!

Lib Dem (Jim Paine): 1,086 (46.1%, +2.7%)
Conservative: 589 (25.0%, +4.1%)
Reform UK: 443 (18.8%, -8.2%)
Green Party: 199 (8.4%, -0.3%)
Labour: 41 (1.7%, new)

Turnout: 27.4%

Liberal Democrat HOLD

 

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The Social Liberal Forum, a strategy for relevant liberalism

By Roger Hayes and John Shreeve | Fri 31st July 2026 - 4:38 pm

I think we can agree that public confidence in our political system is at an all-time low. It comes to a pretty pass when Count Binface is considered to be a best alternative to a national party leader in a by-election, or that the party of government feels the need, mid parliament, to regularly change its leader (and our PM) supposedly for the benefit of all.

This sorry state of affairs has been growing, across the spectrum, for a long time of course as the desire of politicians to win replaced a desire to serve. Essentially its roots emanate from the Tory party as Thatcher moved our politics economically to a system built on free market deregulation and personal advantage. The result, after 40 mismanaged years, is a divided, fractured, unequal, angry society ripe for the populists to trigger. Where the targeting of a sleeping non-voter base has the capacity to change the political landscape entirely, from Brexit to the rise of the rabid-right.  Its little surprise then that after two wasted years from Labour, and the continuing Lib Dem obsession with winning based on quantity of activity rather than relevance of message that we are where we are. Strong in a core heartland, largely invisible everywhere else.

For the Social Liberal Forum, our approach up until now, has been to act as a platform for discussion and advocacy of Socially Liberal values. With events, fringe meetings and publications we have looked at economics, we have discussed the role of liberalism in a divided society, and some of our members have worked tirelessly to challenge and improve party policy. The aim of this being to encourage the party to adopt a more socially liberal stance.

We will always be campaigners, but being able to change lives at scale requires electoral success, without it it’s a slow and frustrating plod. But, with our effectiveness so localised and party strategy centred on weight of leaflets delivered, rather than a moral passion for a relevant national message across the country all that’s left for us to offer is a national party of independents in the guise of ‘Local Champions’.

The big question then is, if we really do see ourselves as a true national liberal party, has to be the creation of a ‘Clear Liberal Objective’. What is the Lib Dem Vision for the society we seek to create?  That when you vote Lib Dem you do so because our vision and moral passion inspires your support. We must be so much more than, ‘not the other party’! Why have we remained a substantially feudal society centred on perceptions of class and the desire for assets. Where is the vital importance of community and mutual support. Where is equality, freedom and community.

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Oliver Jacques

We need to send a message “We hear you” on illegal immigration

By Oliver Jacques | Fri 31st July 2026 - 3:00 pm

What is immigration? Immigration into the UK falls broadly into three categories; legal (authorised), humanitarian and illegal (irregular).

Legal immigration is supported by many well-known routes such as work, student and family visas, business investment schemes and special temporary schemes such as the Ukraine scheme.

Humanitarian immigration follows a long history of welcoming people fleeing persecution and conflict, into this country. Proud to help those who need it find sanctuary here while also honouring obligations under international law.

Support for humanitarian immigration aligns closely with our own LibDem beliefs in compassion, internationalism and the rule of law. We also believe Britain is stronger and richer when it is open to the talents and creativity of people from other countries.

Indeed, many Conservatives and, dare I say, some Reform supporters, welcome people arriving in this country on legal or humanitarian routes.

Where we differ sharply however, is in our public messaging and policy position surrounding the third category; irregular immigration.

There are many examples where right-wing populists in Reform lazily conflate all types on immigration in their rhetoric, using terms such as “mass immigration”, “millions coming into Britain” and “invasion”. To do so suits their divisive narrative, as it did throughout the Brexit campaign.

In addition, I believe that there are those on the political left, and possibly in our party, who conversely promote the belief that all who come to our shores, legally or otherwise, should be accepted and treated the same.

Both conflations are wrong.

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Sarah Olney

Why Andy Burnham would be foolish to turn his back on London

By Sarah Olney | Fri 31st July 2026 - 12:50 pm

The much-vaunted “Manchesterism” of our new Prime Minister is starting to take its national shape, with his early policy pledges and the appointment of his Cabinet. It’s a relentless focus on the cost of living – cuts to VAT on energy bills and a £2 cap on bus fares – paired with a jaunty wardrobe and a flair for social media. Burnham wants the public to see him as somehow more ‘real’ and more ‘in touch’ than his aloof predecessor.

But Burnham’s diagnosis of the ills of the nation – and the action needed to address them – amounts to a great deal more than just improving how the government communicates. His early statements include some fairly significant repudiations of not just the outgoing Starmer administration, but a great many of its predecessors. He specifically talks about the “wrong turn” of the 1980s.

His statements point to a very particular view of history – that the deindustrialisation of the 1980s, together with the centralisation of political power, undermined working class communities to such an extent that they have not recovered. The Burnham protocol references ‘reindustrialisation’ and ‘devolution’ as the answer for these communities. It’s a strikingly retrogressive view. Our pop culture Prime Minister would probably enjoy a Doctor Who comparison – he’s a Time Lord, travelling back to the 1980s to right a historic wrong and save the country from the Evil Neoliberals! – but being compared to a sci-fi fantasy isn’t perhaps as complimentary about Burnham as he would like.

But it is also a statement about geography. The implication is that the Cities of London and Westminster have jointly wreaked this damage on the rest of the country – specifically northern cities and towns – and that it is time for a reversal. I’m not the only Londoner who worries about what the Burnham view of the British economy and society mean for our city.

I know that many LDV readers will struggle to find much sympathy for privileged metropolitan snowflakes, weepingly forgoing their matcha lattes and gochujang popcorn to help fund a £2 bus fare cap that Londoners won’t even benefit from (because our bus fares are already only £1.75!). Many will share the Burnham diagnosis of the impact of Thatcherism on the UK’s social fabric and every good Liberal Democrat will welcome the warm words about devolution. As the party’s Business spokesperson, I’m enthusiastic about the prospect of growing our manufacturing base, especially for the career opportunities it would offer to our young people. Although we also need to see much more support for small and high street businesses, with policies that will boost employment, such as reversing the Employers’ NI increases, introduced by the now ex-Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

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Jonathan Brown

From Britain’s Mandate to Gaza’s Board of Peace: when others decide Palestine’s future, Palestinians pay the price

By Jonathan Brown | Fri 31st July 2026 - 9:42 am

The failure of the Gaza peace process reflects a recurring problem in the international approach to Palestine: powerful actors repeatedly claim the authority to shape Palestinians’ future, make sweeping yet undeliverable promises… and when those promises fail to materialise, Palestinians face the consequences.

In January, President Trump’s son-in law Jared Kushner unveiled an ambitious plan for a “New Gaza” filled with gleaming high-rise towers, a revitalised coastline and tourist-packed beaches. Six months later, no meaningful reconstruction has taken place, and hundreds of thousands of Palestinians continue to live in cramped, unsanitary tents that have become breeding grounds for disease and rodent infestations.

Earlier this month, it was quietly announced that the scope of reconstruction plans has been dramatically reduced to a small pilot project in southern Gaza. The contrast between the scale of the original promises and what has actually been delivered could hardly be greater, despite the centrality of this project to the ceasefire deal.

There has been little acknowledgement of this from Trump and his cronies, who despite being quick to present themselves as the architects of Gaza’s reconstruction have shown little interest in overseeing its implementation.

This lack of accountability is hardly surprising given the composition of the ‘Board of Peace’ (BoP) tasked with overseeing Gaza’s future. The board includes external figures with powerful business interests, some with known pro-Israel sympathies, but excludes Palestinians.

The US-backed BoP rightly criticises Hamas when it fails to abide by the agreement, but then fails completely to use its considerable influence to prevent Israeli violations. Israel continues to kill civilians on an almost daily basis. It continues to obstruct the entry of aid, reconstruction materials and even the Palestinian technocrats assigned to administer Gaza. And despite agreeing to gradually withdraw from the territory, the Israeli army has steadily entrenched its presence, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announcing in May that he had ordered the army to seize 70% of the strip.

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Joe Wright

Let’s fix social care

By Joe Wright | Thu 30th July 2026 - 1:16 pm

Andy Burnham has rightly made fixing social care a top priority and seems, on the face of it, to be genuinely interested in reaching a cross party consensus. Social care has been a priority for Liberal Democrats for a long time as well – I shed more than one or two tears when I first saw some of our election broadcasts from Ed Davey talking about his experiences.

The good news is that we don’t need to wait for the Casey Review to conclude in several years – the answers are already out there. In 2019, the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee published a landmark report calling for £8bn investment in social care, followed by the introduction of free personal care in England. The committee at the time was chaired by the very right-wing Lord Forsyth – this is not a lefty fringe idea, but one that makes practical sense.

It was wisely adopted as our party’s policy in 2023 and a major plank of our manifesto in 2024.

Of course, post-Covid and an ever aging population would mean you need more than £8bn today – some estimates as much as £18bn for transformative social care by 2036.

Frankly, Liberal Democrats need to be a bit less squeamish about asking people to pay more tax. Real substantial taxes rather than fiddling with the Digital Services Tax which is paying for seemingly everything (incidentally widening its base to cover more products like user data sales and streaming services as France and Denmark do or expanding it to AI companies would generate substantially more revenue than upping the headline rate).

The main beneficiaries of making personal care free are people like my family – a fair amount of wealth and assets (a 3 bed detached house in Berkshire and investments) but not necessarily cash rich. The fairest solution is to look at taxing wealth more, rather than working people during a cost of living crisis, so the main beneficiaries are the main contributors. Equalising Capital Gains Tax with Income Tax, and removing some of the egregious loopholes would raise upwards of £11.3bn a year as well as removing distortions which would promote economic growth. It is also backed by the IFS.

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Chris Perry

It is not just about paying for social care

By Chris Perry | Thu 30th July 2026 - 10:53 am

Thirty years after the then Government established the “Royal Commission on Long Term Care”, five years after the 2021 Health and Social Care Act was to sort out social care once and for all, social care is still in crisis and, at long last. moving up the agenda of Government.

The NHS and social care need radical reform, restructuring and cultural change based upon a whole systems approach to liberate the hardworking professionals from the constraining contract culture into an enabling leadership one. Taking out functional divisions along patient / user pathways to create “whole task, right sized, multidisciplinary, inter-agency teams” aligned behind outcome, These teams need to be able to “plan do and evaluate* their own work which completes the learning cycle of constant improvement.

A survey by The Times found there were on average 13,600 people a day in hospital awaiting social care. To enter long term residential care is one of the few irreversible decisions in life and is not to be taken lightly or without an assessment of need and verification of wishes. And there are many more older people not receiving the help they need in the community.

Social care needs to move from a “minding” to a “mending” service. Social Work is under-valued and social workers misused.

Given the wealth of empirical evidence into the social determinants of health which has demonstrated the correlation between low income and health unless Government addresses the widening income inequality and increasing poverty in our society the NHS will not keep pace with demand and will always be playing catch up. Governments cannot go on throwing more money at the first aid camp at the bottom of the cliff without building a fence at the top. Treating the symptoms not the cause.

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Vince Cable

Hidden meanings in social care

By Vince Cable | Thu 30th July 2026 - 9:15 am

Andy Burnham has promised to ‘fix’ social care and to ‘use some of his political capital on the issue’. The first steps are expected this week. Ed Davey, who has campaigned strongly on the issue, promises to work with him on a cross-party basis.

All good. The problem is that people mean very different things by the ‘social care’ problem.

The obvious priority is to help unpaid carers – around 6 million people, 1.7 million of whom provide care for over 50 hours a week – and those they care for at home. There are rather meagre carers’ benefits but, for the most part, carers make a financial as well as emotional sacrifice – while keeping their loved ones out of hospital and as part of the local community.

There is potential help in the form of local authority domiciliary care but the service has to be paid for since social care -unlike NHS health care – is not free, but means-tested for those with assets over £23,000 (and very expensive for -say- a live-in carer costing up to £50,000 a year). Moreover, the domiciliary care service is severely over-stretched and highly dependent on low paid, immigrant, care workers.

If funding were available it could be used to relax the eligibility criteria which keep around 2 million, mainly elderly people, from receiving the social care they need; or to improve the quality of service. Based on the Scottish model (where social care is free) the cost of a fully funded care service could be around £8 billion. That is a minimum.

But others are clamouring for ‘social care’ funding for a different reason. Many relatives with frail relatives, especially those suffering from dementia, choose not to assume caring responsibilities but to put them in a care home. Good care homes are expensive: upwards of £60,000 a year even without nursing care. Some residents are being forced to sell their family home to pay costs. Disgruntled relatives can see their inheritance disappearing in care home costs.

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Samuel Jackson

What should the Liberal Democrats say about compulsory voting?

By Samuel Jackson | Wed 29th July 2026 - 7:57 pm

Last week, Andy Burnham became Labour leader and thus Prime Minister. Labour hope that his leadership will reverse the party’s political misfortunes and poor polling under Keir Starmer, while many hope that his new policy priorities and governing style would bring about vital change. Electoral reform advocates hope that such change will include Proportional Representation, given his past and recent vocal support for it and the proposal of an amendment to the Representation of the People Bill calling for a National Commission on Electoral Reform. However, the latest speculated change, as reported by several outcomes, may come in the form of compulsory voting.

Compulsory voting, otherwise known as universal civic duty or mandatory voting, is the requirement that all registered voters must participate in elections. At present, twenty-one countries have compulsory laws, from free multiparty democracies such as Australia to the one-party dictatorship of North Korea. It may or may not be enforced, with potential penalties (outside the DPRK) including fines, loss of the right to vote, the denial of licenses or passports, or nothing. Registered voters may be exempted because of age, illiteracy, illness, disability, religious objection, occupation, housing status or force majeure (circumstances beyond personal control).

The proposed introduction of compulsory voting under Burnham is disconcerting due to the actions of past Labour Prime Ministers, notably Tony Blair and Starmer himself. They endorsed PR while in opposition, whether during their leadership campaigns or as part of their party’s policy platform. However, once they got into power with huge majorities granted to them by First Past the Post, they either failed to deliver on it citing other priorities or launched make-work activity such as the Jenkins Commission to give the impression that change was coming.

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Michael Gregori

Standing up to the far right

By Michael Gregori | Tue 28th July 2026 - 3:55 pm

On Saturday 25 July, I attended the counter-protest at Glasgow Green in response to the so-called “Unite the Clans” demonstration. I did so because I believe Scotland is at its strongest when we stand together against hatred, division and extremism. Our country has a proud tradition of welcoming people from different backgrounds, cultures and faiths, and those values must be defended peacefully and democratically.

During the event, there were several reports of threats being made towards those intending to attend the counter-protest. Such intimidation has no place in a democratic society. Every person has the right to express their views without fear of threats or harassment, peacefully. Attempts to silence communities through intimidation only reinforce why it is so important for decent people to stand together in solidarity.

What I witnessed at Glasgow Green was both concerning and inspiring. It was concerning because some individuals associated with the far-right gathering were seen making gestures widely recognised as Nazi salutes. These symbols and actions represent one of the darkest chapters in human history and have absolutely no place in modern Scotland. They are an insult to the millions of people who suffered under Nazi persecution and to everyone who believes in democracy, equality and human dignity.

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Chris Perry

Council houses – a dream come true?

By Chris Perry | Tue 28th July 2026 - 11:04 am

The Government’s intention to have the biggest Council House building programme since the 1940s and 50s will give immediate hope to the 134,210 homeless households, including 176,130 children, living in temporary accommodation and the 4,793 people sleeping rough. And as the “right to buy scheme” still, at the time of writing, applied in England (but not in Scotland or Wales) could get them on the housing ladder. …Although former Council Houses have been notoriously difficult to sell.

The programme will create work for some of the 1.01 million young people between the ages of 16 and 24 who are not in education or training, thereby also boosting the economy. It will divert public funds through Housing Benefit from unscrupulous landlords with houses of multiple occupation to Local Authorities at reduced cost. Therefore, economically it is a win win.

Although very much needed, is it a medium-term quick fix which could perpetuate the stigma and labelling associated with Council Houses? In recent times so called social housing (a dreadful term) has been included within new developments in search of integration but this has still attracted similar stigma and labelling.

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Mathew Hulbert

Mathew on Monday – Andy Burnham must act on Social Care now

By Mathew Hulbert | Mon 27th July 2026 - 5:30 pm

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is right about one thing: social care reform demands serious thought. But she is wrong to insist that the answer cannot involve asking those with the broadest shoulders (the very richest) bear the biggest burden and contribute a bit more through taxation. If we are serious about fixing one of Britain’s greatest public policy failures, there will be a cost. We must be honest about that.

For me, this is not an abstract political argument. It is deeply personal.

In July 2022 my mum died two days after waiting eleven hours for an ambulance following a bad fall …

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ALDC

ALDC’s By-Election Report – 23 July 2026

By ALDC | Mon 27th July 2026 - 3:45 pm

Five principal authority by-elections took place last Thursday, across four councils. The Liberal Democrats were not defending any seats, and though we did not win a contest during this relatively quiet week we still came out with some very strong results.

East Devon DC, Exmouth Brixington

Conservative: 537 (35.2%, -2%)
Lib Dem (Andrew Colman): 450 (29.5%, -3%)
Reform UK: 439 (28.7%, new)
Green Party: 101 (6.6%, -2.1%)

Conservative HOLD

Well done to Andrew Colman and the local team for a very strong second place in East Devon. Being only 88 votes off winning must have hurt. But keep your heads held high for keeping a 30% vote …

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The persecution of Palestine’s children

By Maggs Mackechnie | Mon 27th July 2026 - 12:21 pm

Two recent reports have drawn attention to what human rights organisations and UN investigators describe as one of the defining features of Israel’s assault on Palestinian life: the systematic targeting of Palestinian children.

The first report, published by the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry, examines violations against Palestinian children since the beginning of the genocide in Gaza. The second, by the leading Israeli human rights organisation B’Tselem, documents the killing of children by Israeli forces and settlers in the occupied West Bank.

While focused on different contexts, the reports paint a strikingly similar picture. They reveal a pattern in which Palestinian children are routinely killed, injured, displaced, detained and deprived of the conditions necessary for life and development. In this context, the targeting of children emerges as a central feature of Israel’s wider campaign of genocide, ethnic cleansing and forced displacement.

The UN’s findings

The UN independent international commission of inquiry’s report, “The essence of childhood has been destroyed”: Israel’s deliberate targeting of Palestinian children in the Occupied Palestinian Territory since 7 October 2023 , is among the most comprehensive examinations to date of the impact of the ongoing genocide on Palestinian children.

The report notes that at least 20,179 children have been killed and 44,143 more injured as a result of Israeli military action in Gaza since October 2023. It highlights the continued killing of Palestinian children since the October ‘ceasefire’ came into effect, the sharp increase in violence against Palestinian children in the West Bank, and the use of torture, illtreatment and sexual violence against Palestinian children in detention.

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Mark Valladares

Welcome to my day: 27 July 2026 – and let the silly season begin…

By Mark Valladares | Mon 27th July 2026 - 9:10 am

Parliament is now fully in recess until September – the House of Lords sat for an additional week – and now there’s not much “politician on politician action” for five weeks, leaving the field open for commentators and journalists to speculate on what might come next. And, given that the line between reporting and comment is now so blurred, it becomes increasingly hard to separate the two.

Now I’m not the sort of person who tends to don rose-tinted spectacles and opine about how much better things were in the past – improvement is very much in the eye of the beholder – but one thing that the rise of twenty-four hour rolling media and the democratisation of comment has spawned is an increasing sense that, if nothing is actually happening, something – anything – has to be said for fear of risking loss of public attention.

Add to that, an increasing polarisation of the mainstream media, and you end up with a series of increasingly ludicrous headlines designed to scare the British public, and its politicians, in particular policy directions. Does Andy Burnham intend to raise taxes by £96 billion, as I saw on the front page of one national newspaper? And if he does, over what period? Over one year, it might be perceived to be alarming. Over a decade, not so.

But new ministers will be familiarising themselves with their new departments, civil servants will be briefing on priorities, emerging issues and upcoming legislative agendas, and a new Prime Minister will be attempting to draw up a list of quick wins to announce when Parliament resumes.

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The Liberator Collective

Liberator 436 is out!

By The Liberator Collective | Sun 26th July 2026 - 11:30 am

The ew edition of Liberator available

Liberator 436 is out and can be downloaded for free here.

You can sign up to be emailed when each new issue comes out here.  

What’s in this issue?

MAN OF MANY FACES

John Leech assesses the Andy Burnham he knows from Manchester politics 

LIBERALS IN WONDERLAND

The new Liberal Democrat strategy has plenty to say about the ‘how’ of politics but there’s a loud silence about why people should support the party, says David Grace 

LIB DEM NARRATIVE – THE SEARCH GOES ON

Jonathan Calder takes a look at the Yorkist pressure group’s bid to find a path to the next general election 

A LOST WINNING STREAK

The Liberal Democrats used to pull off surprise by-election wins, but what will they do if faced with Reform in a winnable seat asks Sophie Layton 

BABY STEPS 

Repeated attempts to end NHS maternity service scandals have seen little progress. Will the Ockenden and Amos reports fare any better asks Nadia Higson 

WHAT’S IT LIKE WITH THE GREENS?

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 26th July 2026 - 9:14 am

Donald Trump

Donald Trump has discovered the virtues of fighting forced labour—provided he does not look too closely at America’s record.

This week he slapped tariffs of 10-12.5 percent on 60 countries—including the UK—because they imported goods from countries that used forced or abusive labour.

Well, so does the United States. In fact, several of its home-grown companies have, in fact, been prosecuted for using forced labour. And this is according to reports from America’s State Department, the Department of Justice and the Department of Labour.

But first the issue of importation. Trump is on reasonably firm ground using the issue of abusive labour practices to try replacing his first illegal round of tariffs with a fresh batch. Since 1930, there has been a law prohibiting the importation of goods produced by abusive labour practices.

However, that law is almost impossible to enforce. If it was it would result in a wide ban on Chinese goods. America’s chocolate manufacturers would be unable to import the cocoa from Ghana and the Ivory Coast that it needs to satisfy millions of sweet tooth Americans. There would be virtually no rubber or palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia nor sugar from the Dominican Republic. And the above list is only a small sample of the affected products.

The fact is that today’s world of complicated supply chains involving multiple countries makes it virtually impossible to identify products that involve forced labour.

But on to the United States where employers exploit the legal vulnerability of undocumented workers to indulge in abusive labour practices in agriculture, hospitality, construction and domestic service. Every year the Department of Labour and the Justice Department prosecute numerous cases involving migrants. American employers use their illegal status to hold them in debt bondages, confiscate their passports, threaten them with deportation and force them to work up to 17 hours a day.

Not all the offences involve immigrants. The DOJ reports rising incidences of child labour, particularly in meat processing plants. One of the recent high-profile cases involved more than 100 children working overnight to clean dangerous meat processing equipment. The company was fined $1.5 million.

Perhaps  the most controversial labour abuse involves American prisons. The Thirteenth Amendment abolished slavery “accept as a punishment for crime.” Many American prisons are managed by private companies who use the prisoners to secure production contracts for which the prisoners are paid miniscule wages or nothing.

When it comes to labour abuses, the United States is living in a glass house, and President Trump has just thrown a set of bricks through several panes.

Iran

Trump’s Iran War may yet claim another strategic victim—nuclear non-proliferation in the Middle East.

For decades it has been an unshakable tenet of US—nay, Western—foreign policy that everything possible should be done to prevent the spread of nuclear technology in the strategically vital but highly unstable Middle East.

Israel was the exception. It is believed to have an estimated 60 nuclear weapons. They have served their purpose in deterring an Arab state attack since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. And besides, there was little that the US could do to prevent Israel from acquiring the bomb.

Nuclear non-proliferation in the region is the stated main purpose of America’s current war with Iran. And Trump’s apparent failure to stop the Iranians must be behind this week’s announcement that Washington will help Saudi Arabia develop a nuclear industry.

The Saudis’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has made it clear on several occasions that if Iran develops a nuclear weapon than Saudi Arabia must also have one to protect itself from attack from its age-old on the opposite shore of the Persian Gulf.

The Washington announcement said that the provision of the technology would be accompanied by regular visits from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ensure that the Saudis are not using the expertise to develop a weapon. But then, the IAEA also conducted regular checks on the Iranians.

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Sean Worrell

AI at the crossroads: two stories, one warning

By Sean Worrell | Sat 25th July 2026 - 12:41 pm

This month gave us two AI stories that, read side by side, tell us something important about where we are and how little time, we must decide what to do about it.

The first is unsettling in a very specific way. OpenAI admitted that during an internal test, it removed the safety controls on its own models to see how capable they really were at hacking. The models didn’t stay in their sandbox. They found a flaw, broke out, and used it to hack into a rival company’s servers, Hugging Face, to steal the answers to the very test they were being given. Over 17,000 separate attack attempts followed in a short window. Nobody told the AI to do this. It worked out how to cheat, and then it did.

The second is unsettling in a different way. China’s Moonshot AI released Kimi K3, a huge, freely available model that now ranks among the best in the world, beating several major US systems on coding tasks, at a fraction of the usual cost, and openly published for anyone to build on.

It is the clearest sign yet that the AI race is no longer America’s to run alone, and that the most capable tools may soon be the cheapest and easiest to access, wherever they come from.

Neither story is really about robots taking over. Both are about control. Who has it, who’s giving it away, and who’s racing so fast they’ve stopped asking the question at all.

So, are we at a precipice, or an intersection? We think it’s still an intersection. Nothing here is inevitable. But the room to choose our path is shrinking fast. When one company removes its own safety brakes to win a benchmark, and a nation releases a free, powerful model to win a market, the incentive on all sides is to move faster, not more carefully and that is exactly the moment political parties should be paying closest attention, not after the damage is done.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: The American Vote

By Tom Arms | Sat 25th July 2026 - 10:08 am

There are growing signs that Donald Trump is preparing the ground for a challenge to close congressional election results in the mid-terms. Several election law experts have warned about Republican shenanigans.

Scenarios range from the  highly unlikely declaration of martial law and seizure of ballot boxes to attempts to delay certification of Democrat winners. The second possibility is regarded by most legal experts as the most likely and would be designed to influence the organisation of the House in the key early days of the next Congress.

The Republicans don’t need to challenge all the races. Only the ones where the Democrats win. The Republicans will be unchallenged—at least by Trump. And it won’t be in every seat won by the Democrat. It will be in the close races and in the districts and states where there are large immigrant communities or where there are a sizable of mail-in or absentee ballots. Trump doesn’t like those.

There are several ways that an election can be challenged. For a start, there is the recount. In some states if the difference between the two leading candidates is below a certain number than a recount is automatically called. But a losing candidate has the right to ask for a recount, especially if they believe there are irregularities in the mail-in and absentee ballots.

Recounts can be dealt with quickly. Not so easily to deal with are claims of ineligible voters or machine failures. These can take weeks of careful examination of each ballot paper.

Each state is different in how it handles elections. But in each state questions about machine failures, mail-in and absentee ballots and ineligible voters requires the losing candidate to file a lawsuit raising specific legal claims and seeking an injunction delaying certification of the election results. It is the delay that could be important.

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Mary Reid

Nominate someone for the Party Awards

By Mary Reid | Thu 23rd July 2026 - 3:30 pm

Do you know someone within the party who should be recognised for what they do?

Every year at Conference the President presents awards to some very special people within the party. Now is the right time to be nominating people you know for one of the awards. The nominations deadline is 12th August.

The awards that will be given at this year’s Autumn Conference are:

The President’s Award:  open to any Party Member elected to public office and who has demonstrated excellence and commitment, either in that role or both in that role and other roles for the party.

The Harriet Smith Liberal Democrat Distinguished Service Award: this award is named for Harriet Smith, who campaigned and worked tirelessly for the Party, notably alongside Paddy Ashdown, with the Federal Conference Committee, and in the Bath party. A beloved figure, she is also missed from the Conference revue and by the team at the Liberator Magazine. It is open to any Party Member never elected to public office.

The Belinda Eyre-Brook Award: this award is named for legendary campaigner Belinda Eyre-Brook, whose achievements with the Party include being Ed Davey’s agent in 1997, overturning 15,000 Tory Majority, and establishing one of the party’s longest-serving MPs.  It is given to recognise and celebrate the efforts of people working for our elected representatives in their local areas – from local party employees to political assistants to council groups, to people working in MPs’ constituency offices.

The Dadabhai Naoroji Award: this award is named for the ‘Grand Old Man of India’, Liberal MP, and joint founder of the Indian National Congress, Dadabhai Naoroji. His work highlighting the reality of British rule over India and campaign for justice is an example to us all and his place in history, as the first non-white and first Indian Parliamentarian, is assured. It is presented annually to the local Party that has done most to promote ethnic minority participants to elected office as Councillors, Assembly Members or Members of Parliament.

The Penhaligon Award: this award is named for former MP David Penhaligon, a cherished former stalwart of the Cornish Party who took the seat of Truro in 1974. David was a prominent figure in the party and the nation and will always be remembered for his succinct advice to local campaigners: “‘stick it on a piece of paper and stuff it through a letterbox’. It can be presented to the local party anywhere in the world which demonstrates the most impressive increase in membership and exemplary activities to deliver and involve members and supporters.

The Patsy Calton Award: one of our more recent awards, the Patsy Calton is named for the former MP for Cheadle and is presented (and judged) by Lib Dem Women. Patsy was a hugely respected Parliamentarian and her legacy also lives on through her eponymous award given by Breakthrough Breast Cancer. It is awarded to exceptional women ranging from Councillors, to members, to Parliamentarians.

The Party website has more details about each of these awards, and instructions on how to nominate someone.

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Tom Reeve

Burnham has left a gap on tax. We should run through it.

By Tom Reeve | Thu 23rd July 2026 - 9:33 am

In his first interview as Labour’s presumptive Prime Minister, Andy Burnham told the Sunday Times that one issue kept coming up on the doorstep in Makerfield: the frozen £12,570 personal allowance. He called it a growing issue. Within days of walking into Downing Street he had told the Financial Times there was no commitment to do anything about it.

That is a let down for anyone earning near the threshold. It is also a gap in the defence, and we should run through it.

He raised the subject, then walked away from it

Politicians do not usually hand their opponents a grievance. Burnham did. He spent months telling voters that the freeze was unfair, that it was dragging people who are not well off into paying tax they should never have paid, and that Westminster was not listening. He was right. Westminster was not listening. Unfortunately, having become the boss himself, he has proved that it still is not.

What he offered instead was an £850 million package taking VAT off household electricity. It is worth about £45 off a typical annual bill, and rather more than that if you are wealthy enough to own a large house and use a lot of power. It is planned for this financial year only. And because the saving rises with the amount you use, it gives nobody any reason at all to take less from the grid. Alongside it came a cut in the bus fare cap to £2 and a month of free travel for under 15s.

Cheaper buses are good. Lower bills are good for households, even if they are not necessarily good for the environment. But set it against the freeze, which now runs to April 2031, and the sums do not work. Our own figures show 1.9 million more people being dragged into the higher rate between 2025 and 2030. Victoria Collins has costed the wider threshold freeze at £67 billion a year for ten million taxpayers by the end of the decade. Against that, £45 for one winter is a press release, not a plan.

Voters are perfectly capable of doing that arithmetic. They will do it in October when the bills arrive.

The policy is already ours

Here is the part we keep forgetting. We do not need to invent anything. What we need to do is stop saying five words: “when the public finances allow”.

That caveat kills the policy. It turns a principle into a wish. No number, no date, and no answer to the only question anyone ever asks.

Because the policy itself is strong. Raising the personal allowance is the single most successful thing we did in government. Between 2010 and 2015 we lifted more than three million people out of income tax altogether. Not by means testing. Not by a scheme people had to apply for. Just by letting people keep more of what they earned before the state took any of it.

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Samuel Jackson

Should the Liberal Democrats support “None of the Above”?

By Samuel Jackson | Wed 22nd July 2026 - 11:54 am

‘Idiot’ or assorted synonyms for ‘stupid’ have been used to criticise those who do not vote. ‘Idiot’ itself is derived from the Greek ‘ἰδιώτης’ referring to anything personal or ‘private’ individuals who were not political officeholders or professionals, being retroactively applied to those who forwent public engagement in Athenian democracy. In this sense, the first ‘non-voters’ were considered ‘idiots’. However, in our current political climate, we must question this assertion.

We are living in a time where faith in democracy and trust in institutions is at record lows, manifesting itself in low voter turnout and increased support for populist disruptor parties like Reform UK. The current First Past the Post system does not respond to voters’ needs, struggling to prop up a two-party system as voters are no longer convinced to support either major party at the very least to keep the other out or that it ensures stability. There are also the day-to-day struggles that many members of the public must contend with such as insecure employment and the cost-of-living. If ‘vote Liberal Democrat’ is not a convincing enough argument, is it unreasonable to not vote under these circumstances?

The Liberal Democrats believe that reforms such as Proportional Representation and better civics education can help to ameliorate such ill feeling and improve engagement by making our politics more representative and responsive. However, would these fully resolve the harm done by our confrontational political culture? Should voters be prevented from participating in elections if they believe that none of the options available appeal to them?

None of the Above (NOTA) is used in fifteen confirmed democratic nations as well as the US state of Nevada. This comes in different varieties, differing in how they operate and what effect they have. NOTA can be an explicit option on ballots papers or may be registered when voters submit unfilled ballots (often called ‘blank votes’).

Under majoritarian voting systems, where there can only be one winner, NOTA can effectively be treated as a participant, having a chance to ‘win’ on the same terms as an actual candidate were it to achieve a majority or winning plurality. In such an eventuality, a victory for NOTA could result in a seat remaining vacant for a term, being filled by appointment or lottery, or recontested in a new election potentially with different candidates. However, as in India and Nevada, NOTA can have no substantive impact with the highest polling candidate being elected regardless albeit with a noticeable question mark over their mandate.

Our party could support NOTA as a feature of FPTP if it were to have a significant impact like instigating a do-over election. With voter apathy surpassing the winning margins of candidates in 611 out of 650 seats in 2024, NOTA could accommodate alienated voters while demonstrating the follies of FPTP. Although, with momentum gathering behind the campaign for electoral reform, this form of NOTA could be co-opted to retain FPTP and stymie beneficial change.

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Edward Marsh

Extending the school day: A catalyst for economic growth

By Edward Marsh | Wed 22nd July 2026 - 10:57 am

Extending the school day represents far more than an educational reform; it constitutes a strategic economic investment capable of substantially increasing national productivity. In modern economies, where dual-income households have become the norm rather than the exception, the traditional school timetable – often ending between 3:00 and 3:30 p.m. – is increasingly incongruent with standard working hours. This temporal mismatch imposes significant constraints upon parents, particularly mothers, who disproportionately bear responsibility for childcare. Consequently, extending the school day would not merely improve educational opportunities for pupils but would also liberate human capital currently underutilised due to caregiving obligations. By enabling both parents to participate more fully in the labour market, particularly by facilitating women’s career progression, governments could stimulate economic growth through increased employment, higher productivity, greater tax revenues, and a more efficient allocation of talent.

One of the most significant economic advantages of a longer school day is its capacity to increase labour force participation among parents. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), countries with accessible and reliable childcare consistently demonstrate higher rates of female employment than those where childcare provision is limited. The conventional school schedule often compels parents to reduce working hours, reject promotions, or withdraw entirely from employment because their children’s educational timetable does not align with the standard working day. Extending school hours would alleviate this structural impediment by providing supervised, educationally enriching environments for children throughout the working day. As a result, parents would gain the flexibility necessary to pursue full-time employment, thereby increasing the overall supply of labour available to the economy.

This benefit is particularly pronounced for women, who continue to undertake a disproportionate share of unpaid domestic and childcare responsibilities. The International Labour Organisation estimates that women perform approximately three times more unpaid care work than men globally. This unequal distribution of responsibilities contributes significantly to lower female labour market participation, and the persistent gender pay gap. Economists frequently refer to this phenomenon as the “motherhood penalty,” whereby women’s earnings and career progression stagnate following childbirth due to interrupted employment and reduced working hours. By extending the school day, governments would effectively reduce one of the principal structural barriers preventing women from pursuing continuous, full-time careers. Rather than forcing mothers into part-time employment or career interruptions, a longer school day would allow them to remain economically active during critical years of professional development.

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Jack Meredith

It’s time to reclaim Cymru Fydd

By Jack Meredith | Wed 22nd July 2026 - 8:55 am

Something has changed in Wales. 

The 2026 Senedd election saw the end of Welsh Labour’s uninterrupted rule since 1999, Plaid Cymru take over the reins of power, Reform settle into its position as the official opposition, and a brand new voting system, to boot. But while so much has changed, there remains one constant: the Liberal Democrats still have only one MS.

We could be forgiven for keeping our heads down to focus on “rebuilding” the Welsh Liberal Democrat base, but I believe this would be a mistake. While Welsh nationalists run the government, British nationalists are at the gate. The need for a strong liberal opposition to push back against these forces has never been greater.

A nationalist government not only takes charge of the country, but of our story, too. Plaid Cymru prides itself on being the bastion of Welsh independence, painting every other party as antithetical to the cause. But to believe such propaganda would be to deny a simple truth: Welsh liberalism advocated for Welsh self-governance long before Plaid Cymru ever came into existence.

Cymru Fydd (translated “the Wales to come”) was a cause championed by Tom Ellis MP, a young David Lloyd George, and many other Welsh liberals. Its argument was simple: Wales should govern itself, be responsible for its own issues, and handle its own affairs, all within a reformed Britain. Reframed for the modern day, that is exactly what federalism is.

The movement itself, unfortunately, stalled at Newport on 16 January 1896. A motion to unite the Welsh Liberal federations into a single national movement was voted down at the South Wales Liberal Federation’s AGM, with David Lloyd George shouted down and refused the right to speak. From that point on, Cymru Fydd was considered dead and buried. Nationalist historiography views that AGM as evidence that liberalism would never put the needs of Wales ahead of support for the Union.

But that is not how I view the AGM.

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Tony Vickers

An open letter to Andy Burnham

By Tony Vickers | Tue 21st July 2026 - 4:15 pm

Embed from Getty Images

Dear Andy,

Like you, I’m an advocate of taxing differently, so as to stimulate economic growth in a fair and sustainable way. We shouldn’t be taxing workers and businesses more.

Every Lib Dem Conference I’m there with colleagues promoting “Action on Land-value Tax and Economic Reform (ALTER ).

Along with the late Dave Wetzel, chair of Labour Land Campaign, ALTER helped found the Coalition for Economic Justice (CEJ ) in 2004. CEJ was Secretariat to the APPG on Land Value Capture , chaired by Vince Cable from 2017 and then by John McDonnell.

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Caroline Pidgeon

Standing up for London, for your community and place

By Caroline Pidgeon | Tue 21st July 2026 - 2:20 pm

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When people talk about London and London politics, they more often than not immediately think of the Mayor of London. And over the years we have had some high profile characters such as Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson.

However the Greater London Authority (GLA) is unique in the UK, in that it is made up of a Mayor and the London Assembly, the body that holds the Mayor and their agencies to account and represents Londoners at City Hall. The next elections will be in May 2028, so London Region is already planning ahead to get our team in place!

Standing as a London Assembly candidate is a role open to London members, not afforded to other regions in England. It is a unique role, which can benefit you, your target ward or constituency, and of course, help us grow the party. There are both constituency and Londonwide list candidates.

These candidate roles are a chance to develop your skills, campaign in new and innovative ways and to ensure the Lib Dems have a strong voice and visible presence across the capital.

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Callum Robertson

Four challenges in Andy Burnham’s in-tray

By Callum Robertson | Tue 21st July 2026 - 11:00 am

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We have a new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, who has successfully pulled off a bloodless coup more akin to the Glorious than the French Revolution. However, now he is in office, he cannot escape the reality of four core issues that he will need to fearlessly take on if he is going to get economic growth going again.

Bringing Investment into the UK

In 2025, we had a trade deficit of about £39 billion, this is principally because we import more in goods and services than we export (mainly a deficit in goods and a surplus in services).

We remain an acceptable location for foreign direct investment, however some of the key drivers behind turbocharging Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) include high regulatory burden, trade and tariff risks post-brexit and high levels of tax comparatively to other English language economies.

By easing some regulatory burden on existing Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and having an attractive offer such as tax breaks for companies who relocate to the UK for the first 18 months, we could increase income tax revenue, create jobs and increase the corporation tax receipts in the medium term without raising tax.

Additionally, Andy Burnham should not shy away from having the courage to increase market certainty by re-assessing our relationship with the European Union.

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Tim Leunig

A plea to our new Prime Minister – abolish me!

By Tim Leunig | Tue 21st July 2026 - 9:00 am

It has been a big week for me, personally. On Thursday 16 July, the government announced 26 new members of the House of Lords – and I am one of them: I am to be Lord Leunig. Since it is His Majesty’s Government, the official announcement read “The King has been graciously pleased to signify His intention of conferring Peerages of the United Kingdom for Life upon the undermentioned:”

Sixteen new peers will be Labour, five Liberal Democrat (including me), and three Conservative. These twenty four were nominated by their political parties. The remaining two will be “crossbenchers”, that is, not taking the whip from any political party.

Those numbers: sixteen, five, three and two are entirely, as I understand it, the choice of the PM. He could have created no peers at all, or had a completely different ratio. He could have created peers for other parties, and he could have offered Count Binface a peerage. It really is up to him. (For those wondering why the Conservatives got only three new peers, they have more peers than other parties already: to be honest I am surprised that they were given any.) But either way, it is the PM’s choice. There are currently no Reform Lords, and only two Greens.

The House of Lords is indefensible in so many ways. Once appointed, peers have been appointed for life, although a retirement age of 80 is planned. That means I could be a legislator for almost 25 years – in which time my views could change spectacularly, or my principles lose support in the country. In neither case would I be removed. A side effect is that peers are typically rather old – the majority are over 70, and well over a third are over 80.

Nor is the Lords representative. Whether they win or lose general elections, the Conservative party always has more peers than Labour. No other democracy gives one party the biggest share of legislators, no matter how badly that party does in elections. That is offensive to anyone who calls themselves a democrat.

The Lords are unrepresentative in other ways. Fewer than a third of peers are women. Some political parties do better: 45% of Labour and 43% of Liberal Democrat peers are women, similar to their Commons mix (46% and 44% respectively). In contrast only 29% of Conservative peers are women. More than half of peers attended private schools.

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Mathew Hulbert

Mathew on Monday: Burnham has made a promising start. Now comes the hard part

By Mathew Hulbert | Mon 20th July 2026 - 9:00 pm

Andy Burnham’s first speech as the new Prime Minister, outside No.10 Downing Street, earlier today, struck exactly the right tone. After years of political instability, he spoke of restoring trust, rebuilding Britain, devolving power and creating a new economic and political model. It was hopeful, ambitious and refreshingly optimistic.

Britain has been crying out for a politics that inspires rather than merely manages.
One pledge particularly struck me: his commitment to make ending rough sleeping his first instruction as Prime Minister. It speaks to values I share about dignity and compassion. Yet it also comes with a note of caution. Burnham made a similar commitment as Mayor of Greater Manchester, achieving significant early progress before homelessness later rose again amid wider housing pressures. National government gives him more levers than City Hall ever did, but this promise will ultimately be judged on results, not rhetoric.

His reshaping of the Cabinet (from what we know of it as I write) is equally significant. The departure of prominent figures associated with the Starmer era (Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, Steve Reed, Peter Kyle etc) signals that this is not intended to be continuity with a different face.

If Burnham genuinely wants a fresh start, he needs ministers who share his vision rather than yesterday’s assumptions.

For all of the excitement of today, however, governments are not remembered for inauguration speeches. They are remembered for what they achieve (or, perhaps more often, what they don’t. Burnham will have a honeymoon, but it may well only be a brief break.

I genuinely hope he succeeds. Britain needs stable, compassionate and effective government. The words outside No.10 were encouraging. The challenge now is turning them into lasting change. That is the test by which this premiership will ultimately be judged.

Where is the anger on Local Government reorganisation?

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