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Mathew on Monday: Davey has been given a second chance. Now he must show us what his leadership is for

By Mathew Hulbert | Mon 12th October 2026 - 4:30 pm

Ed Davey’s leadership of the Liberal Democrats has been given something of a reprieve. Some of his parliamentary colleagues have rallied around him, offering protection at a time when questions about his leadership and the party’s direction have become increasingly difficult to ignore.
But protection is not the same as vindication. And a second chance must not become an excuse for more of the same.

The Liberal Democrats cannot afford another period of drift and dither. We need leadership. We need vision. Above all, we need to know what our party is actually for.

I’ve argued before that our problem isn’t a shortage …

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged european union, party leadership and pubs | 7 Comments

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The decapitation strategy

By Michael Taylor | Mon 12th October 2026 - 3:18 pm

There seems to be a naïve assumption that all the problems of the Liberal Democrats will be solved by a decapitation strategy.

During my lifetime there have been 12 Liberal and LibDem leaders and during that same period we have always been told that voters don’t understand what we stand for. Yes, occasionally, voters do identify with something we stand for. Our opposition to the Iraq war for example or our support for the EU. They have also recognised stupidity like abandoning our firm pledge on tuition fees.

In 2024 I suspect our success was mainly down to being the best opportunity to kick out the Tories than any real understanding of what we stood for.

All my life, since the death of the News Chronicle, we have had no national media to support our cause. In 2010, the Guardian did encourage people to vote LibDem, only to withdraw that support the minute the coalition was agreed. All we ever see is ridicule, disagreement and, more usually, silence.

Is that going to change if we have a new leader? I very much doubt it. The Tories changed their leader 6 times between 2005 and 2024. That didn’t prevent the worst defeat in their history in 2024. The Greens chose a new leader, Polanski, and enjoyed short term success before dropping back down the polls and losing the HSP by-election. Labour has had 6 leaders since 2005, but has that created a really successful party? The jury is still out on their latest change. We have had 5 leaders since Charles Kennedy. Our current leader led us to our best election result in 100 years but apparently that’s not good enough.

I suggest that the leader is not the only factor in getting our message across. We have never found a way to express our ideology and policies in a simple way, perhaps because it isn’t possible to do that. Leaders can only project what the party stands for if the party decides what that message is.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged party leadership | 3 Comments

Welcome (belatedly) to my day: 12 October 2026 – a leadership challenge, or a challenge to the leadership?…

By Mark Valladares | Mon 12th October 2026 - 1:06 pm

My estimable colleague and our Editor-in-Chief, Caron Lindsay, wrote yesterday asking the question, “Is Ed Davey toast?”. And a fine question it is too, although I’m perhaps not the obvious person to answer it.

So, instead, I’m first going to look at the mechanics of it all. With the Parliamentary Party in the Commons due to meet tomorrow, what are the options?

Charlie Maynard has moved in the confidence that he can secure enough votes to defeat Ed, and Ed knows it. That would potentially trigger Article 18.2(a) of the Federal Constitution:

the Leader asking for an election

or, Article 18.2(d)

the receipt by the President of the resignation of the Leader or of a declaration of intent to resign upon the election of a new Leader;

Nobody is really sure, there’s no obvious choice, but there are enough votes to defeat Ed in a confidence vote. That triggers Article 18.2(e)

a vote of no confidence in the Leader being passed by a majority of all Members of the Parliamentary Party in the House of Commons

Of course, none of these could happen, but that doesn’t present members from getting involved. Article 18.2(f) allows for a leadership election to be triggered by:

the receipt by the President of a requisition submitted by at least 75 Local Parties (including for this purpose, the Affiliated Organisation or Organisations representing youth and/or students) following the decision of a quorate general meeting

That’s more difficult than it used to be, as the number of Local Parties has shrunk over the years through various mergers and reorganisations on the basis of local government boundaries.

And, despite the conjecture and press speculation, we don’t have a clearcut idea as to where the majority of the Parliamentary Party in the Commons lies. Whilst Politics.co.uk lists eighteen MPs who have publicly announced their support for Ed, that still leaves him potentially short of a majority.

Alright, so much for the mechanics. But let’s assume that Ed is toast. What next?

Are there a collection of viable candidates for the leadership, or a clear “young pretender”?. Personally, I’m not seeing the latter and, viewing the landscape from distant Suffolk, whilst I might have some personal preferences, most of the Parliamentary Party are still pretty raw in terms of experience. That’s not to say that they couldn’t lead the Party, but I’d suggest that the wider Party would want to take a “good look under the bonnet” first.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged party leadership | 9 Comments

Is Ed Davey toast?

By Caron Lindsay | Sun 11th October 2026 - 8:30 pm

The news that two Lib Dem front benchers, Alison Bennett quietly and Charlie Maynard with a bit more noise have resigned their positions this week should concern the party.

It’s been clear for some time that all is not well within the party, and the controlling, top-down management style adopted by the party leadership since the General Election in 2024. This sort of rigid discipline didn’t work so well in the Labour Party in the first two years of the Starmer administration and it sure as hell is doomed in a liberal party. We are supposed to encourage independence of mind and spirit.

Nick Baird’s critique of the “equine pacification” strategy on Friday encapsulated well what many party members think and it is clear that this view is reflected in a fairly significant chunk of the parliamentary party. The sense I get is that a fair number of MPs don’t necessarily want to change leader, but they do want us to show ourselves as a radical liberal party that speaks to the whole nation, not just the blue wall and they do want to be treated like adults whose contribution to party strategy should be listened to.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged charlie maynard and ed davey | 30 Comments

A plea from a member – more ambition and less equine pacification please…

By Nick Baird | Fri 9th October 2026 - 11:32 am

Those were the days, eh? Way back in 2024, we were a Party on the up with a record number of MPs. The Tories were banished and in disarray. We talked, in all seriousness, about how we would be the Official Opposition after the next General Election. We looked admiringly at the Canadian Liberals who went from third place with a rump of MPs to an overall majority and thought “that could be us”.

Now? Not so much. We languish, flatlining at 4th in the polls (or occasionally 5^th if the Greens are doing well). Our performance in recent parliamentary by-elections has barely registered as a footnote. There has been no discernable bounce in the polls for us following conference season – one of the few times of the year when the mainstream media feel some obligation to talk about us a bit.

Where has our ambition gone?

As has been frequently discussed on LDV, or in any gathering of Lib Dems, our strategy post-GE seems to have been to play it safe, keep our heads down, avoid controversy and annoy as few people as possible. Even the ones who will never vote for us. The ‘Equine Pacification’ strategy – don’t frighten the horses.

When I hear briefings from senior figures in the Party now, their assessment is that our held seats are mostly safe. We’re under pressure in a few and might lose a couple, and we might pick up a few target Tory-facing seats, but the end result is likely to leave us where we are now, on 70-odd seats plus or minus a few. Since 2024 I certainly haven’t heard talk of any ambition to deliver a result substantially better than that, or a strategy to deliver it. Is that really good enough?

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged party strategy | 36 Comments

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The Independent View: The halfway house nobody wants to live in

By Naomi Smith | Fri 9th October 2026 - 9:15 am

Last week, a Labour Prime Minister said he would fight the next election on replacing first past the post with a form of proportional representation. He staked his legacy on a National Care Service, with social care free at the point of use and the cost spread across the population. Electoral reform has been owned by the Liberal Democrat party since its inception, and Ed Davey is renowned for his campaign for better social care. In a single speech, Labour committed to both. Not content with eating the Lib Dem’s lunch, he sized up their pudding by opening the door to EU membership too..

A Westminster Hall Debate on 12th October will discuss the UK’s application to join the EU, triggered by a petition that gathered 111,687 signatures earlier this year. It’s the first time parliament will get to debate the UK-EU relationship since the Prime Minister’s conference speech. It’s an opportunity for pro-European MPs to make a full throated case, and some Labour MPs doubtless will. But how should Lib Dems play it? Best for Britain’s polling shows that the party’s current customs union and single market position is the least popular option among its own supporters. If Labour gets to rejoin first, Lib Dems risk being left sucking their thumb.

In an ideal situation, both parties, along with the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the SNP, will go into the next general election with manifesto commitments to join the EU. Our megapoll of more than 10,000 voters shows sticking to the current approach results in a hung parliament, and the nightmare scenario of Reform UK and the Conservatives able to form a government.

We also found that 56% of Lib Dem supporters most wanted the government to propose EU membership. Only 9% picked a customs union and 7% the single market, the party’s current policy. More Lib Dem supporters wanted to stick with Labour’s red lines (16%) than wanted either halfway house. The single market and customs union were the least popular options with the public as a whole too, at 6% and 5%, behind even loosening ties further. The current Lib Dem position doesn’t win over cautious voters because it’s a position almost no-one holds.

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Posted in The Independent View | Tagged best for britain and european union | 15 Comments

Will the real Green party that cared about people and planet please stand up?

By Kobe Bibbon | Thu 8th October 2026 - 3:03 pm

One of the values that attracted me and so many of us to the Liberal Democrats is our fundamental belief in personal freedom: that everyone should be free to live their life how they choose, as long as they don’t hurt anybody else. That principle is why I’m writing this today.

On the very same week as the one-year anniversary of the horrific attack on worshippers at Heaton Park Synagogue, the Green Party conference chose to pass a motion telling people they are wrong for how they choose to live their lives. Worse still, they voted against an amendment that sought to protect Jewish members.

Regardless of people’s views on Zionism, nobody and no political party should be telling anybody else how to live their life, nor should they condemn them for doing so.

We are all sickened to see what is happening in Gaza- there is no doubt about that. These horrendous actions are being carried out by the Israeli government and the Israeli government alone- they are not the actions of our Jewish community, who just want to live their lives free from fear or hate. The Greens must recognise this distinction.

We have seen how this dangerous behaviour ends before. We have seen the Labour Party go down this toxic path not so long ago. We called it out for what it was then, and we must not hesitate to do so now. While naturally we don’t want our political opponents to succeed at the ballot box, we very much want to see them succeed in ridding their ranks of the poison that we saw under Labour in the Corbyn era.

For the values that we hold dear and the society we want to build, it is imperative for all of us that we eradicate this division and fear from our politics, whether left, centre, or right.

This is why I believe the Greens should be investigated by the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC). This isn’t about wishing to see the demise of political opponents or point-scoring; it is about ensuring that our democracy succeeds as a safe and inclusive space for everybody, no matter their story or background.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged green party and zionism | 7 Comments

Rob Blackie joins the race for Mayor of London

By Mary Reid | Thu 8th October 2026 - 1:00 pm

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Rob Blackie (@rblackie)

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Posted in News | Tagged mayor of london and rob blackie | 1 Comment

We need better conversations on AI and the environment

By Josh Matthews | Thu 8th October 2026 - 11:10 am

AI is not one thing. Neither is its environmental impact.

We need to keep our eyes, our debates, and our policymaking focused on the problems we’re trying to solve. On the outcomes we’re trying to achieve and the society we want to build.

AI can be machine learning, Grok, or basic (mislabelled) data analytics and simple process automation software.

Its impact on sustainability can of course be environmental – its emissions, energy use, water consumption, effect on the local environment, or through the physical materials and supply chains that build datacentres and all manner of other infrastructure.

AI’s impact can also be social and economic – on employment, education, policing, for creatives, or on local community cohesion.

When considering governance, often the third pillar of sustainability (and the acronym ESG) AI opens up new questions of accountability from self-driving cars to corporate management.

I’m not going to rank these impacts. Or pretend that in one blog post I can fully account for their breadth and complexity. But as a starting point for our collective future conversations, here are some numbers, questions, and counterarguments to consider…

The whole technology industry, including chip manufacturing and electronics supply chains, is 2-3% of global emissions, based on an analysis combining sources like Our World In Data and the World Economic Forum. This is, it’s worth noting, a variable estimate depending on how you define “the sector” as is the case with all carbon accounting. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that AI is far less than the 0.5% of global emissions generated by all current datacentres, which provide storage and processing for our digital lives far beyond AI. Now that footprint will grow with the rapidly increasing number of datacentres before it comes back down as electricity is decarbonised. And given emissions saved now are especially vital in arresting global warming (vs emissions saved years and decades down the line) the construction of new gas and coal to fuel datacentres should be stopped. In the long run the energy transition is building critical mass: over $2 trillion will be spent this year on clean energy vs $1 trillion in fossil energy. Agriculture, steel, cement, and other sectors are more worrying as far as a successful transition to net-zero is concerned. But all this said, we must address both the now and long term.

Regarding electricity, it’s a major headache for planners and the grid. Numbers across NESO, DESNZ, and National Grid project datacentres as 2-3% of UK electricity demand in 2026. A recent London Assembly report cited that will grow to between 30-71TWh by 2050 (roughly between 1 and 3 Hinkley Point C nuclear plants) – an immensely variable number and likely supplied by heavily decarbonized electricity.

The impact of the physical infrastructure follows the concerns of the broader tech and infrastructure sector: security of critical mineral supply, refining ability, and human rights abuses in those opaque supply chains. Something we desperately need to address in legislation but not uniquely to AI.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged artificial intelligence and environment | 4 Comments

How to spot a Racist

By Ben Rich | Wed 7th October 2026 - 12:34 pm

I don’t know about you, but I find it rather irritating when some ‘patriot’ (sic) with a flag tells me what it means to be English.

I find it similarly galling to have explained to me what Zionism means and how it relates to my Judaism. These helpful Greens give me their definition of Zionism and tell me that it’s racist – but it’s ok, because there are plenty of ‘good’ Jews who are anti-Zionists.

But I still choose to call myself a Zionist. And because Zionism, while not meaning the same as Judaism is deeply entwined with Judaism, I feel I have the right to define what I mean by it.

Every year, at my family seder and at millions of seders around the world, we Jews conclude with the words “next year in Jerusalem!” For me, Jerusalem is a symbol of peace and belonging, for others – and imagine those who said it in the depths of the pogroms or it the Nazi camps – it may be a more literal aspiration for freedom and safety.

Zionism developed as a political movement towards the end of 19th century at a time whenwhat it meant to be a nation state was still under development. In much of the world the artificial lines that divide countries were yet to be drawn. In Europe, where the first Zionist congress was held in 1897, the map bore little resemblance to one that we might see today. Those first Zionists were simply saying – as others around the world began to find a national as well as an ethic, religious or racial identity which they believed entitled them to a place to call home – that Jews too could share the same ambition.

And they looked to the land which had not just been a millennium long echo in their religious ceremonies and their holy book, but a continuous home to many Jews throughout the centuries, living in Jerusalem and Tzfat and elsewhere. So, for them and for me, Zionism isthe national liberation movement of the Jewish people.

Now, I understand that international Marxism does not accept the idea of national borders, but for those that believe that the English and the French and the Americans and the Chinese have a right to their own nation state it makes no sense to argue that, uniquely, the Jews don’t and, furthermore, that even that aspiration is racist.

The Green party motion calls for the ‘end of Israel’. It says Israel – not its Government,which I detest, nor its courts which have done much to hold that Government in check, nor its media which can sometimes be as critical of that government as the Guardian and the BBC – but the very country itself, Israel, has no right to exist.

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Posted in Op-eds | 20 Comments

Councils must help music – so music can help their communities flourish

By Charlie Clinton & Josh Matthews | Tue 6th October 2026 - 5:56 pm

Embed from Getty Images
If we believe in giving everyone the platform to flourish and live their unique version of a best life, then enabling music, and musicians, to thrive in our local areas is an unmissable part of that platform.

Does a day go by when you don’t listen to music?

On your phone? In a movie? In a bar or coffee shop? In your place of worship? We use music to celebrate milestones, commemorate lost loved ones, pump ourselves up, and to find ourselves when we’re lost.

But the dedicated geniuses who make all that possible are seeing their income streams disappear one by one. Losing CD income to streaming. Losing touring income to Brexit. Losing gig income to venue closures.

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Posted in Op-eds | 1 Comment

Welcome to the Brexit argument, Prime Minister!

By Dr Anthony Harris | Tue 6th October 2026 - 4:34 pm

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This week Andy Burnham told the Labour conference in Liverpool that Brexit has done ‘more harm than good’. In a broadcast interview the next day he said that an in-out referendum on membership of the European Union (EU) in Labour’s next manifesto is ‘possible’, as The Times reports. For Labour that is a dramatic shift. For Liberal Democrats it is something more familiar as here we see a Prime Minister arriving, a decade late, at an argument we have been making since at least the summer of 2016. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.

In Brighton in September 2016, barely three months after the vote, Tim Farron committed our party to giving the public the final say on the terms of any Brexit deal and that pledge went into our 2017 manifesto. In May 2019 we fought the European Parliament elections under a slogan nobody could misunderstand: ‘Bollocks to Brexit’. We came second across Great Britain with a fifth of the vote and went from one Member of the European Parliament to sixteen. Labour, facing both ways at once, slumped to about 14 per cent. Only that autumn did Labour finally back a public vote, and then under a leader who promised to stay neutral in it. Welcome to the debate Mr Burnham!

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged andy burnham and brexit | 15 Comments

Pensions, care and the liberal vision we need

By Maria Linforth-Hall | Tue 6th October 2026 - 11:00 am

I am a Liberal Democrat because I believe in freedom, fairness, compassion and giving people the power to shape their lives. Those values remain deeply important to me.

Yet, after our recent conference in Brighton, I wanted to hear a clearer, more ambitious account of how we would put those values into practice. Tax cuts have their place, but people also need decent housing, reliable public services and security when illness or old age makes them vulnerable.

Andy Burnham’s speech raised questions that deserve serious consideration. Welcoming a worthwhile proposal from another party does not weaken our liberal principles. We should assess it honestly, support what is good and challenge what remains inadequate.

As a pensioner, I am concerned about the proposed changes to pension increases from 2030. Many older people already struggle to meet everyday costs. Protecting those on the lowest incomes must be an essential part of any reform.

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Posted in News | 2 Comments

50 years a Liberal

By Simon McGrath | Tue 6th October 2026 - 9:30 am

Fifty years ago, I was starting at City University. It was my second attempt: I had spent an unhappy term at Southampton several years earlier, and as part of my plan to enjoy university more, I decided to join a society at the Freshers’ Fair. I wasn’t a Tory and definitely not a socialist, but I liked the Liberal Party’s views on apartheid and gay rights (not that I had ever consciously met a gay person). I joined the Liberal Society and went along to a meeting, where I remember being very impressed by a postgrad, David Heath, who later became leader of Somerset County Council and an MP. Little did I know this would spark 50 years (so far) of involvement in the Liberal Party and the Lib Dems.

I accepted an invitation to become the Liberal Society Press Officer, which meant writing pieces for the student newspaper and led to my first foray into public speaking at student union meetings. My appetite whetted, I stood in my first election—for the NUS delegation—where to my surprise (and that of the more hardened hacks), I topped the poll. My hustings speech arguing that the NUS should keep out of national politics went down a storm!

In those days, there were separate organisations for students (the Union of Liberal Students) and young people more generally (the Young Liberals). I became Treasurer of ULS and co-founded the Weybridge YL branch alongside future MP Richard Younger-Ross.

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Posted in News | 14 Comments

The Autumn 2026 edition of the Journal of Liberal History published

By Nick Alderton | Mon 5th October 2026 - 2:49 pm

The Liberal Democrat History Group are pleased to announce that the latest issue of the Journal of Liberal History (issue 132, Autumn 2026) has just been published.

The Journal is published quarterly and can be purchased here or you can take out an annual subscription here.

The Journal was first published in 1993 as a newsletter. It has come a long way since then and is read by people from all walks of life and all over the world. As a peer-reviewed journal, the highest rigours of accuracy are maintained but we have made sure the content is as accessible as possible.

The latest issue is packed, across its 56 pages, with features, articles and reviews.

Liberal History News

The editor of the Journal, Duncan Brack, looks back at the life of Jim Wallace, Baron Wallace of Tankerness, who died in January.

Lord Wallace was a Scottish Liberal/Liberal Democrat MP for Orkney and Shetland from 1983 to 2001. He was the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats from 1992 to 2005 and as a member of the Scottish Parliament, he served as Deputy First Minister of Scotland from 1999 to 2005. He stepped into the role of acting First Minister twice.

Articles

Showcasing the work of historians, whether professional or amateur, is what the Journal does best. All the articles are peer-reviewed by leading historians, allowing for an accessible and interesting read.

In this issue, our authors have provided us with a broad set of articles:

Flattered to Deceive? John Curtice examines the performance of the Liberal Democrats in the May 2026 local and devolved elections.

Boundaries, Science and the redrawing of England’s Electoral Map in 1832 Martin Spychal describes the 1832 Boundary Act and the work of the 1831–32 Boundary Commission.

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Posted in Liberal History | Tagged emlyn hooson, jim wallace and journal of liberal history | 1 Comment

Can we afford the Triple Lock? Not as a low tax party

By Joe Wright | Mon 5th October 2026 - 12:32 pm

A tale of two conference speeches: Ed Davey declared the Lib Dems to be the party of low taxes, and outlined £17bn of tax cuts to Income Tax and Fuel Duty, paid for by making a better deal with the EU, whilst Andy Burnham proposed a National Care Service – with an estimated cost of £18bn according to the Health Foundation. Burnham proposed funding this by adjusting the Triple Lock – although he didn’t explain it that well in the speech. The new approach will tackle the “ratchet” effect – where inflation is high one year, wages grow high in the second in response, so the pension grows rapidly twice in a row. The new system will keep it roughly in line with a third of average wages, making it more predictable and affordable. Importantly, it will never decline in real terms.

The triple lock was designed for those halcyon days of the 2010s – low inflation and modest wage growth, not the stagflation of the 2020s which in our hubris we assumed was condemned to the history books of the 1970s.

Now Burnham’s costings don’t actually add up – his proposal will start to save substantial sums over the long term – but will be a few billion short. That’s fine, it’s a conference speech not a Budget. All the major opposition parties came out the gate to oppose this – despite initial polling showing that this trade off is popular and fair.

Davey said that social care can’t wait for the next parliament – we need action now – which we all agree with. He also said it shouldn’t be funded by modifying the Triple Lock, which begs the question, can we afford the Triple Lock? The answer is yes for the next 10 or 15 years, but not as a low tax party.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged triple lock | 14 Comments

Labour’s new vape tax is disastrous policymaking

By Rees Southern | Mon 5th October 2026 - 10:16 am

On Thursday, Labour’s new vape tax came into effect. Vaping Products Duty charges £2.20 per 10ml of vape liquid. Because VAT is charged on top of the duty, the real cost at the till is £2.64. In practice, an average £3.00 bottle of 10ml liquid will now cost £5.64, an 88% price hike.

VPZ, the UK’s largest vape retailer, surveyed 2,640 of its customers ahead of the tax coming into force and found that 63% say it will be harder for them to stay off cigarettes and tobacco, 21% say they may return to smoking, and 34% say they will look for “cheaper alternatives”, which in practice is likely to mean illicit vapes, cigarettes or tobacco.

VPZ’s own prices show the scale of the change. Its standard 10ml liquid, which cost £4.49 before the tax, now costs £7.13, a 59% increase. Its standard 100ml liquid has risen from £16.99 to £43.39, a 155% increase.

E-Cigarette Direct, one of the UK’s largest online retailers of vapes also surveyed 2,068 of its customers and found that 28% said that they would not have switched from smoking to vaping if the tax already existed, with 1 in 6 saying they are now more likely to purchase illegal products with the tax in place.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged taxation policy and vaping | 15 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 4th October 2026 - 8:30 am

The Brazilian presidential elections could presage a major shift in Western Hemispheric politics.

At issue are the rabidly pro-Trump conservative policies of Flavio Bolsonaro v. the more independent-minded and left-leaning incumbent President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula).

Flavio is the 45-year-old son of former president Jair Bolsonaro who is serving a 27 year prison sentence for attempting to overthrow the government and conspiring to assassinate President Lula. At the top of the younger Bolsonaro’s manifesto is the promise of a pardon for his father.

He also wants to lower taxes; do away with at least ten government departments and build five huge maximum security prisons.

But most important of all is Bolsonaro’s foreign policy. He wants to reduce ties with China; pull Brazil out of BRICS and forge iron-clad links with the Trump Administration to create “the strongest conservative alliance in the history of the Western hemisphere.”

Lula’s attorney general is investigating claims that the Trump Administrating is helping to finance the Bolsonaro campaign. The White House and State Department have denied the claims.
First round of voting is on Sunday. There are 13 candidates but Flavio and Lula are the only two that count. The opinion polls give Lula the slight edge in round one with a projected 45 percent of the vote compared to 40 percent for Flavio Bolsonaro. It is highly unlikely that either of the front runners will run the overall majority required for a first round victory.

So, the presidential election will almost certainly go to a second round on 25 October and current polls predict a dead heat. This means even more claims of American election interference and, of course, more denials.

Canada’s Mark Carney continues to be President Trump’s third worse nightmare and biggest mistake. The first one is undoubtedly the Iran War and the second is probably tariffs in general.

This week the Canadian prime minister announced the projected construction of “Pacific Link” pipeline to carry roughly 20 percent of Canada’s oil from Alberta to the Pacific coast for shipment to Asia.

The pipeline will be a key element in Carney’s plans to reduce Canada’s dependence on its southern neighbour. Reducing dependence, however, is not good news for America.
Canada is not generally known to be an oil giant. But the fact is that it is the world’s third largest producer and has proven oil reserves of 171 million barrels. Eighty-three percent of them are in Alberta.

At the moment 90 percent of Canada’s oil exports are piped across the border to refineries in the Midwest and along the Gulf coast—Trump country. Canadian oil represents 63.4 percent of America’s oil imports.

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Posted in News | Tagged tom arms world review | 1 Comment

Observations of an ex pat: Stormy Red Sea

By Tom Arms | Sat 3rd October 2026 - 9:33 am

Oh, for the days of the British Empire. A protectorate in Egypt and Sudan. British troops at both ends of the Red Sea — Egypt and Suez in the west, Aden and Somaliland in the east. Trade flowed relatively freely between Europe and Asia.

Today’s picture is less simple.

The immediate problem is the conflict between the Iranian-backed Houthis on one side and the internationally recognised Yemeni government and its Saudi allies on the other.

But it is far more complicated than that. The Iran War has increased the importance of the Red Sea as an alternative outlet for Gulf oil, with the Saudis piping their product to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, from where it can be shipped north towards Suez and south through the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait towards the Indian Ocean and Asia.

But the Saudis and the Houthis are not the only players in the Red Sea drama.
Bang opposite Bab el-Mandeb is the tiny former French colony of Djibouti, which hosts military facilities used by France, the United States, China, Japan and Italy. The two most significant are the American and Chinese installations.

The Americans have about 4,000 personnel at Camp Lemonnier, which covers nearly 600 acres. The Chinese have 1,000 personnel squeezed into 90 acres, although the facility is reported to include some 23,000 square metres of underground space. The Chinese base also has a substantial naval pier and is particularly well positioned for operations in the Gulf of Aden. It is China’s first overseas military support base.

To complicate matters further, more countries are sticking their oars into the turbulent waters of the Red Sea.

Israel has established diplomatic relations with Somaliland, while the United Arab Emirates has developed extensive commercial and security links with Somaliland and has invested heavily in the port of Berbera. The UAE previously maintained military facilities in the region as part of its operations in Yemen.

Britain does not maintain a major permanent military base in Djibouti, but British forces operate alongside American and other Western forces in the region. Turkey and Qatar have also developed growing political, economic and security interests around the Red Sea and Horn of Africa.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged observations of an ex pat | 1 Comment

By-Election Report 01.10.26

By Joe Nutt | Fri 2nd October 2026 - 6:05 pm

Six principal authority by-elections took place across Scotland and England on Thursday 1st October.

Reform UK were defending two seats in Northumberland (Amble and Hirst), the Conservatives were defending two seats (in Stirling and North West Leicestershire), Labour defended one seat in Blackpool, and an Independent seat was contested in Highland.

The headline story of the week was a sensational Scottish Liberal Democrat gain in Highland Council, where Julie Calder stormed to victory with over 50% of first-preference votes in the SNP Council Leader’s own ward. Across the border in England, a decisive dynamic unfolded as the newly formed Restore party split the right-wing vote in both Blackpool and Amble. Had Restore’s votes gone to Reform UK, Reform would have won both seats; instead, the split allowed Labour to hold Blackpool and gain Amble. Labour also reclaimed Hirst from Reform UK, while the Conservatives held off challenges in Stirling and North West Leicestershire.

Scotland

Highland Council, Wick and East Caithness

In the Scottish Highlands, the Liberal Democrats delivered a staggering by-election victory in the Wick and East Caithness ward of Highland Council following the resignation of an Independent councillor.

Wick and East Caithness is a multi-member ward governed under the STV system, where the SNP Leader of the Council also holds a seat. In 2022, the Liberal Democrats topped the first-preference vote with the SNP leader finishing second – both getting elected in the first round, before an Independent and Conservative filled the remaining seats in the fifth round.

In last night’s contest, Julie Calder secured an astonishing 50.4% of first-preference votes – an increase of 21.6 percentage points – to win the seat outright on the very first stage of counting! Reaching an absolute majority of first preferences in the council leader’s own ward is a phenomenal achievement and reflects the immense trust residents place in our Highland Liberal Democrat team.

A massive congratulations to Cllr Julie Calder and the local campaign team in Caithness on an iconic victory!

Lib Dem (Julie Calder): 1,522 (50.4%, +21.6%)

Independent: 714 (23.6%, new)

SNP: 424 (14.0%, -11.3%)

Reform UK: 283 (9.4%, new)

Conservative: 79 (2.6%, -12.5%)

Turnout: 30.0%

First-preference votes. Elected at Stage 1.

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Independent

Stirling Council, Forth and Endrick

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged local government by-elecitons | 2 Comments

Picking our allies, a perspective on Israel/Palestine

By Gillian Mosely | Fri 2nd October 2026 - 2:13 pm

There’s been a lot of noise recently about applying international law. What exactly does this mean? Statutes on human rights were formalised as international law following the atrocities committed during the Holocaust in which at least twelve million were killed, six million of them Jews.

But over the years these laws have seemingly been applied indiscriminately with Western powers left off the hook time and again. Questions around British and American actions in places like Iraq linger, but in recent years the heat has been turned up. Israel, traditional ally to many Western powers, has been the subject of case after case brought to the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice. Judgements to date include a decision that Israeli occupation of the West Bank is illegal under international law, and Israel has been warned that accusations of genocide in Gaza are plausible and the ICC is adjudicating this case.

As Israel’s allies defend the actions of the Israeli government, international law is again being scrutinised. What’s it for? I’d have hoped that would be obvious – it’s designed to prevent world atrocities and to adjudicate a world in which we can all thrive, but this only works if everybody and every country are held to the same standards and here lies the problem. Rather than admit wrongdoing, countries like the US and Israel are doing their best to undermine the validity of international law by decrying the international courts. Shocking when you consider that the US led in creating statutes on human rights because of what had happened to victims of the Nazi regime, many of whom migrated to Palestine then Israel.

So as a Jew, descended from 1200+ years of famous Rabbis and Jewish community leaders, including a number of Britain’s earliest chief rabbis, I was particularly driven to find out how we have arrived at this juncture. Pew Research did a poll in Spring 2024 which revealed that 73% of Jewish Israelis felt Israel’s response to October 7th was proportionate or not strong enough. By then tens of thousands of Gazan civilians had died. As a Jew and a filmmaker I wanted to find out where this popular opinion had come from. I went to Israel to film with the hypothesis that the results of this poll were a combination of unresolved Jewish trauma, and current-day Israeli politics. What I found gave me sleepless nights.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged international law, israel and palestine | 11 Comments

Burnham is right to reform the triple lock; the Lib Dems should support it

By James Hill | Fri 2nd October 2026 - 11:45 am

In his conference speech this week, Andy Burnham made a brave political decision to reform the triple lock on the state pension. The reformed triple lock will increase the state pension by either inflation or 2.5% every year. If there is sustained growth in average wages over several years – enough to outpace the inflation and 2.5% locks – then the pension will rise to match that wage growth.

This ensures that every year the state pension will be protected, or increase, in real terms, and it retains its value relative to wages. This is a sensible reform; similar proposals have been put forward by the resolution foundation, and our own peer Tim Leunig, and there is widespread agreement from economists that the unreformed triple lock is financially unsustainable. Under the current triple lock, the state pension can grow faster than both wages and inflation, due to a ratcheting effect where correlated higher inflation and larger wage increases lag each other and lead to compounded state pension increases. And remember, every time the state pension bill increases, this money must come be found from increased taxes, spending cuts or (currently dismal) growth. The triple lock reform removes this ratchet by tracking average wage growth over many years, instead of an annual wage growth lock, saving an estimated £15 billion/year by 2039/40 (though this is hard to predict). This is a large sum of money in the medium and long term and will significantly ease the huge spending pressure the country is facing.

So it was disappointing to see an immediate condemnation of this policy from the party leadership – seemingly without considering the details or merits of what has been proposed. They seem to have jumped into opposition because of a (misguided) belief that the most politically popular option is to oppose any change to the triple lock, now and forever more. The polling around this announcement shows how wrong this assessment is (Lib Dem voters are the most supportive of the reform)!

Our deputy leader Daisy did an interview with Sky News setting out the party’s 3 main problems with the plan, 24 hours after the PM’s speech:

1) The reform doesn’t raise any money in the short term for urgent social care needs

2) It seems like cross party talks have been torpedoed

3) Triple lock “hasn’t done its job yet” in tackling pensioner poverty

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged andy burnham, pensions and triple lock | 8 Comments

Why I won’t Wayve goodbye to Black Cabs

By Christian de Vartavan | Fri 2nd October 2026 - 9:59 am

Since September 3, Uber and Wayve have been operating a small number of self-driving cars in London. Passengers can travel in electric Ford Mustang Mach-Es equipped with Wayve’s AI driving system. For now, these are supervised autonomous journeys: a trained, TfL-licensed private-hire driver remains in the vehicle to monitor the system and intervene if necessary — which, incidentally, seems to defeat the point of a driverless vehicle. The initial service operates across the capital, excluding airports, and is being expanded gradually.

The UK government forecasts a self-driving market worth up to £42 billion, creating up to 38,000 jobs by 2035. These are UK-wide projections, not a guarantee that London will gain equivalent employment. The more immediate risk is that the distinctive, human-driven black-cab trade will be squeezed, accelerating a decline that has already seen the number of licensed taxi drivers fall from more than 25,000 in the mid-2010s to around 16,000 in 2025/26.

All of this rests on a professional qualification that is unusually demanding by international standards. To become a licensed London taxi driver, candidates must pass the Knowledge of London: an in-depth study of around 320 set routes, roughly 25,000 streets and thousands of examinable points of interest within a six-mile radius of Charing Cross. Although the current examinable list is seemingly closer to 6,000 points than the traditional figure of 20,000 often quoted, the process nevertheless takes around three years on average and involves notoriously rigorous oral examinations.

In addition, drivers must meet strict character, medical and driving standards, undergo enhanced DBS checks, complete safeguarding training and pass the Safety, Equality and Regulatory Understanding (SERU) assessment. They must also take a taxi-specific driving test. This is not a job one can enter after a short course; it is a profession built on mastery of the city.

That mastery matters. In many countries, taking a taxi can be not only unpleasant but genuinely risky. I have personal memories of this, most recently in Kazakhstan in the middle of the night: an aggressive driver and the distinct feeling that my safety hung by a thread. London’s black cabs are different. They are licensed, insured and wheelchair-accessible, and driven by people who have demonstrated over years that they know the city and are accountable for the service they provide.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged black cabs, london and taxis | 25 Comments

Keep the earnings link: don’t repeat the mistakes of the 80s

By Chris Perry | Thu 1st October 2026 - 3:56 pm

The triple lock was introduced in 2010 by David Cameron’s Coalition Government when Steve Webb (Lib Dem) was Minister of Pensions, to restore the erosion which had taken place since the earnings link was replaced with a prices’ link in the 1980s. To replace the triple lock with a prices’ link or 2.5%, as was proposed today, will reverse the progress of the last sixteen years. Clearly it has been proposed to save money, as it was in the 1980s, which means a reducing state pension at the very time Government should have been looking to increase it to reduce demand upon the NHS and social care. It is not just about paying for social care.

Prices are about the cost of living. Earnings are about the standard of living and quality of life. As the economy grows so too do the expectations and necessities of life. For example in the 1950s very few people had a fridge: it would be difficult to live without one today. In the ten years before the introduction of the triple lock in 2010 earnings went up by 41.7%, pensions linked to RPI by 32.4% and those linked to CPI (as now proposed) by 26.6%.

There is a wealth of empirical evidence into the social determinants of health which has demonstrated the correlation between low income and health. Widening income inequality and increasing poverty are the root cause of so many of the problems the Prime Minister was addressing in his speech to the Labour Party Conference.

In 1980 the average house was 3.5 times average earnings and the average pay of a chief executive of a top hundred company 18 times average earnings. In 2026 the average house is 8.5 times average earnings and the average pay of a chief executive of a top hundred company 186 times average earnings. Unless Government addresses the widening income inequality and increasing poverty in our society the NHS will not keep pace with demand and will always be playing catch up. Governments cannot go on throwing more money at the first aid camp at the bottom of the cliff without building a fence at the top. Treating the symptoms not the cause.

Britain has one of the lowest State Pensions in the developed world with 2.4m older people living in poverty. Older people got no benefit from the two pre-2024 General Election cuts in National Insurance, previously lost their free television licence and some their winter fuel allowance and have to pay more income tax due to the freezing of the tax-free allowance. And are now to see a year-on-year erosion of their pension.

Older people account for approximately 70% of the expenditure of the NHS. To raise the State Pension to lift all older people out of poverty would improve their quality of life, reduce demand upon the NHS (saving huge amounts of money) and mean that if they did need long term care in a care home applying the same financial assessment which has been in place since the 1948 National Assistance Act they would be able to contribute more reducing the cost to local authorities and mean that their capital and house would no longer need to be taken into account.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged pensions, social care and triple lock | 27 Comments

Where have we heard this one before? Labour and electoral reform

By Jack Meredith | Thu 1st October 2026 - 1:46 pm

A Labour Prime Minister has announced a commission on electoral reform. Where have we heard this one before?

For those who remember, or, like me, are interested in political history, you would know that Andy Burnham isn’t the first Labour leader to announce the creation of a commission on electoral reform; that accolade belongs to Tony Blair.

Time for a quick crash course: as part of their 1997 election manifesto, New Labour committed to holding a referendum on an alternative voting system to First Past the Post. After entering office, Blair asked Lord Jenkins to head a commission on electoral reform, later called the Jenkins Commission.

The commission’s result was the “AV+” voting system: 80% of MPs would be elected in single-member constituencies via a run-off system, with the remaining 20% elected via a “top-up” system using regional lists. While it wasn’t supported unanimously by the Commission, with Lord Alexander of Weedon opposed to maintaining single-member constituencies, it was the final product of the Commission. It presented a viable alternative to First Past the Post.

So, with the Commission’s work complete, Blair’s response was… to ignore it. Instead of following through on his party’s manifesto pledge, Blair kicked the can down the road. He faced pressure from trade unions not to change the voting system, along with a cabinet split on whether to honour the pledge. Lord Jenkins even went on record saying he doubted Tony Blair would ever support electoral reform, adding that political parties “rarely had the courage” to make changes that would damage their electoral prospects when they had the power to do so.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged electoral reform and proportional representation | 14 Comments

Opportunity at the heart of our vision in local government

By Callum Robertson | Thu 1st October 2026 - 9:22 am

For too many young people, the transition from education into employment is becoming harder. Employers face rising costs and are understandably cautious about taking on additional staff. Young people without extensive experience then find themselves trapped in the familiar catch-22: they need experience to get a job, but they need someone to give them a job to gain that experience.

In Watford, Three Rivers and Hertsmere, the Liberal Democrats are trying to do something different to solve this problem whilst simultaneously supporting local economic growth.

That is why we are calling on the Government to establish a pilot “Special Economic Zone” for young people and the creative industries across Watford, Three Rivers and Hertsmere.

The idea is relatively straightforward. Creative-sector businesses taking on a new apprentice would be exempt from employer National Insurance contributions for that employee.

It would give businesses a direct financial incentive to create genuinely new opportunities for young people, while supporting a sector with enormous potential for our local economy.

Fundamentally, this proposal is about giving young people a chance by removing the financial disincentives that Labour have put in place through successive employment reforms.

When we talk about young people who are not in education, employment or training, it is very easy for discussions to become dominated by statistics and acronyms such as “NEET”. Behind those statistics, however, are real people who want the opportunity to build their independence, develop their skills and start their careers.

Yet because entry level jobs in every sector are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain, young people remain locked out of many sectors. The evidence on this is clear, the longer somebody remains outside employment, the harder that first step can become.

At the same time, we need to recognise the pressures facing employers. A small or growing business might want to give an 18 or 19-year-old their first opportunity but ultimately decide that the costs and risks involved are simply too high.

Our proposal would change that calculation.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged apprenticeships and young people | 3 Comments

Vince Cable writes: Drill, baby, drill…or not

By Vince Cable | Wed 30th September 2026 - 11:28 am

Now that the Prime Minister is back from his trip to see Donald Trump and has enjoyed the emotional warm bath of his party conference, he rejoins the world of hard choices. The budget looms. A more immediate question is to decide on whether to proceed with drilling for gas and oil in the Jackdaw and Rosebank fields in the North Sea.

The politics are awful. Environmentalists regard the issue as central to the government’s credibility on climate change. The Labour v Green battle in Camden provides context. On the other hand, rejection of the developments will send a negative signal to those, including bond traders, who are looking for signs of commitment to economic growth and those who worry about energy security. Both sets of voices have been loudly heard at Labour conference not least from the new Scottish Labour leader, Michael Marra, who wants to press ahead with both developments. For her part, Kemi Badenoch has made this a signature issue for the Tories and will be shouting ‘Drill baby drill’ next week. President Trump will undoubtedly provide his own, loud backing for fossil fuel exploitation: if he can tear himself away from his plans to construct a giant ballroom and a triumphal age honouring his rule

In fact, the serious arguments are complex and allow for a nuanced approach. I took to the airwaves last week to defend Ed Davey’s decision to back the Jackdaw field on its own separate merits. Jackdaw is a Shell development (spoiler alert: I used to work for them 30 years ago). The gas field, east of Aberdeen, is already underway but was paused by a Greenpeace injunction seeking a climate change assessment. The field should provide around 5% of gas demand in the UK and that gas would be otherwise imported. Gas will remain a transitional fuel while renewables are developed and there are good reasons for producing it in Britain rather than importing it (Norway is the major and uncontroversial source; the USA and Qatar more subject to political intrusion). Ed was right on this issue and his experience as Energy Secretary gives credibility to his assessment. (I confess that I had more difficulty defending the proposed subsidy on motor fuel).

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged climate change, ed davey, environment, featured, jackdaw, north sea oil and rosebank | 1 Comment

123 days in power: putting our new strategy for urban Britain into practice

By Victor Chamberlain | Wed 30th September 2026 - 9:28 am

Last week at Liberal Democrat Conference, I was delighted to pass an amendment to our party strategy making clear that, if we are serious about growing our party, we must become more relevant to people living in urban areas, diverse communities and younger generations.

Our recent electoral successes give us an extraordinary platform. But we cannot be satisfied with consolidating our support only where we are already strong. We should be ambitious about winning and governing in cities and diverse communities across Britain too.

For Southwark Liberal Democrats, this is not just a discussion about party strategy. We are already putting it into practice.

Following May’s elections, Liberal Democrats entered a Joint Administration with the Southwark Green Party, ending 16 years of majority Labour rule.

This week we marked 123 days in office. We are demonstrating what Liberal Democrats can achieve in one of the most diverse and densely populated urban boroughs in Britain.

We have announced the return of Community Councils, putting neighbourhood democracy and devolved decision-making back at the heart of the council. We have reintroduced One Stop Shops, announced community skips, invested more in community safety and created a free school uniform bank for families who need it most.

We have launched an empty homes task force to get council homes back into use, secured a better deal from developers of student accommodation to fund local community projects and defended our affordable housing requirements.

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Posted in Op-eds | Tagged liberal democrat councillors, liberal democrat councils, Local government, london and southwark | 7 Comments

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David Sparrow
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