Author Archives: Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 13th September 2026 - 8:30 am

Saudi Arabia

Since the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, Saudi Arabia has increasing amounts of its oil through a pipeline to its oil terminal in Yanbu on the Red Sea. This way they can transport their Asian-bound products through the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean and beyond.

That route goes past Yemen and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait which is another one of the sea-going world’s chokepoints. On Thursday it was announced that the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have taken control of the city and seaport of Mocha and much of the shoreline of the Red Sea near the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The oil price jumped to $109 a barrel.

Control of the Red Sea has repercussions beyond the price of oil and fertiliser. Sandwiched between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean, it links Europe and Asia. Twelve to 15 percent of the world’s maritime trade sails through the Red Sea. All of it is within easy range of any missiles or drones on the Yemeni side of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. That trade is valued at over $1 trillion a year.

The Houthis are in a struggle against the Saudi–backed Yemeni government who told Reuters this week that hundreds of officers from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are currently in Yemen directing the attack on Mocha and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

According to CNN, more than 100 US military advisers are in Saudi Arabia as part of a new joint forces command, providing the Saudis with intelligence and helping them find Houthi targets. Thus, the war widens and escalates. What began around the Strait of Hormuz is acquiring another front—and another strategic chokepoint.

North Korea

North Korea’s Kim Jong-un has commissioned two new 5,000-ton destroyers. They will form, he says, part of the country’s “nuclear counteraction system.” The ships have vertical launch systems and are assessed to be capable of firing cruise missiles such as the Hwasal-2, which North Korea claims can carry nuclear warheads. Pyongyang is also developing an 8,700-ton nuclear-powered submarine, whose hull Kim inspected in late 2025.

The North Koreans have come up with the technology amazingly quickly, which is why many intelligence analysts are detecting the Russian hand behind these developments. Kim has sent an estimated 15,000 North Korean troops to fight in the Ukraine War as well as thousands of tons of munitions according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, up to another 50,000 North Koreans are expected.

The technology to build a nuclear-armed navy is likely to be part of the bodies for technology agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang.

Donald Trump responded to the new North Korean threat by drastically curtailing and postponing the annual “Freedom Shield” US-South Korean-Japan military exercises. Originally scheduled for 17-27 August. They did not start until 7 September

South Korea’s response to these machinations is interesting. Seoul is moving towards its own nuclear-powered submarines. President Lee Jae Myung’s government has formally advanced the Jang Bogo N nuclear-powered submarine programme. These would be conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines. They will not, however, be armed with nuclear missiles.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged 9/11, north korea, saudi arabia and United states of America | Leave a comment

Observations of an Expat: West Bank Settler Sanctions

By Tom Arms | Sat 12th September 2026 - 9:37 am

Competing demographic trends inside Israel and its Western traditional supporters in are stacked against the Jewish state.

This week’s round of British-led sanctions against goods produced by West Bank settlers is a recognition of changing Western attitudes towards Israel.

Democracies by their very nature are dominated by short-term electoral cycles of two, four or five years. Demographic attitudinal changes, on the other hand, run over decades. Governments can postpone responding to the demographic realities because the electoral penalty is initially small. Then, quite suddenly, the accumulated change becomes impossible to ignore. Especially if there is a catalyst such as Gaza and the Iran War.

Israel was founded by a political elite with broadly European social-democratic institutions. In the first decades of its existence, Western publics — particularly after the Holocaust and during wars in which Israel appeared to be the vulnerable underdog — identified strongly with it. Living on an Israeli kibbutz became one of the “IN” ways of spending the summer or gap year.

But Israel also changed as its demographic make-up became less European and more Asian, African and home-grown. These Israelis grew up on the constant shadow of war and they became preoccupied with security and nationalism and increasingly distrustful of Palestinians, Arabs and Iran. Young people in the West became more aware of human-rights-based issues and the Palestinians.

During the 1967 Six-day War a Gallup poll showed that 56 percent of Americans backed Israel. Only four percent supported the Arab cause. During the 1973 Yom Kippur War American support was up to 54 percent. Support for the Arabs remained in single figures.

The arrival of Benjamin Netanyahu and a shift towards more right-wing, nationalistic and security-focused policies started a shift in Western attitudes. In 2010 America’s favourable attitudes towards Israel dropped to 40 percent. The drop was even more marked in Europe. Only 17 percent of Britons expressed support for Israel in 2010. In France the figure was 20 percent and in Canada 23 percent.

After Gaza and the Iran War the drop is more acute. In June 2026, American support for Israel had dropped to 37 percent for Americans and 25 percent among the British. But, more important, was the generational gap because that is the best indicator of future trends. In 2026, among 18 to 34 year olds, 23 percent expressed support for Israel while the figure for the 50-plus generation was 49 percent. In Britain the figureswere16 percent and 30 percent respectively.

Polls in Israel reflect a markedly different picture. Only 13 percent of Israeli Jews 18-34 supported a detailed two-state peace package solution compared to 40 percent for the over 55’s. The disparity is mirrored in issues such as Gaza, the Lebanon and Iran.

In Israel the demographic trends are moving in opposite directions from that of young Western voters. In the West the young especially are becoming increasingly critical of Israel, while young Jewish Israelis are generally more nationalistic, dismissive of the two-state solution, tougher on security issues and more hawkish than their parents.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged israel and west bank | 5 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 6th September 2026 - 9:30 am

Texas

Watch Texas. Especially watch the Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Trump-backed Republican Ken Paxton.

Texas is a bright-red Republican state. Its Stetson-wearing inhabitants openly carry guns on their hips and year after year return a far-right Republican governor and legislature. A Democrat has not won a Senate seat since 1988.

For that reason, the prestigious election-watching Cook Report has consistently classed Texas as “lean Republican.” It has recently, however, changed its classification to a “toss-up.”

A big part of the change is cash. In America advertising wins votes. Advertising costs money so elections usually go to the candidate who has raised the most money. So far Talarico has raised $68.6 million—seven times the paltry $7.5 million raised by Paxton.

Texas’s other Senator, Republican Ted Cruz, has publicly said he is worried. So has Senate Majority leader John Thune. The reason for their concern is that holding Texas is now seen as vital if the Republicans want to retain control of the Senate.

Republicans are already under pressure in Maine, Michigan and Ohio, while Alaska and Iowa have also moved into toss-up territory. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. If they can make the expected gains elsewhere, Texas could become the seat that tips the balance. If that happens then bright red Texas is all that stands in the way of a Democrat-controlled Senate, and, at the moment, opinion polls range from a dead heat to a slight lead for Talarico.

Paxton desperately needs money, and it may be riding over the horizon next week in the form of Donald Trump. The President’s MAGA Inc. Super PAC is sitting on a staggering $403.45 million. Even a fraction of that could transform Paxton’s campaign. Elon Musk has already started the cavalry charge: his America PAC has spent nearly $250,000 supporting Paxton.

Next week Trump rides into Dallas for the Republican Party’s first mid-term convention. It would be the perfect stage on which to announce a major financial intervention. The problem is that Trump has so far proved remarkably reluctant to open his enormous political wallet for other Republican candidates. But if he lets Paxton go under, he could help lose the Senate as well as the House.

United States

This week a new set of US tariffs took effect. They range from just under 25 percent to 100 percent and have been slapped on the importation of drones.

The official reason for the tariffs is national security. In the normal course of events this explanation would have been accepted without question. Drones have become an essential part of the country’s defence network and currently a big chunk of America’s drones come from China.

But there is much, much more to the story and it involves Eric Trump and Don Trump Jr who stand to financially benefit—big time—by the tariffs.

But there is much more to the story. Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. have investments linked to four US-based drone manufacturers — Anduril, Unusual Machines, Powerus and XTEND — all operating in a sector that stands to benefit from the new tariffs. Donald Trump Jr. became a strategic adviser to Unusual Machines in 2024 and was awarded 200,000 shares for his services, worth roughly $1 million at the time of a Forbes valuation in 2025. After the tariffs were announced the share price of Unusual Machines jumped 24 percent.

The potential conflict of interest has already attracted political scrutiny. A group of Democratic legislators led by Senator Elizabeth Warren has asked the Pentagon’s Inspector General to investigate 15 defence companies backed by funds associated with the Trump sons. According to the Washington Post, those companies have received at least $3.2 billion in federal contracts, investments and loans.

France

This week French President Emmanuel Macron crossed the English Channel (which the French call La Manche, or “The Sleeve”), to open the Bayeux Tapestry exhibition at the British Museum.

He then travelled across London town to Downing Street to become Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s first foreign visitor. The visit had major symbolic as well as practical reasons.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump, france, montenegro and texas | 2 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Bonds and the World

By Tom Arms | Sat 5th September 2026 - 10:23 am

This week’s G20 finance ministers’ meeting in Asheville ended amid unusually bitter divisions. Behind the arguments over China, tariffs, Iran and Russia lurked another problem which affects every country represented around the table: the world’s bond markets are in turmoil.

The practicality of funding the business of governments is an excellent demonstration of the interconnectability of the world. The fact is that no matter how high a tariff wall is built, the bond holders will find a way to scale it and their demands are based on global conditions.

At the moment, the global bond market is in tumult. This is simply because governments have borrowed too much money. Inflation has proved harder to kill than expected, and investors are now demanding a much higher price for lending.

A bond is basically an IOU. A government borrows, say, $100 for ten years and promises to pay interest. If investors suddenly decide that inflation will remain high, that government debt is getting too large, or that the government may pursue reckless policies, they become less willing to hold that IOU. They sell the bond. When bond prices fall, bond yields rise. The yield is effectively the interest rate governments have to offer to persuade investors to lend to them.

That is what is happening now. US 10-year Treasury yields have climbed towards 4.8 per cent; UK gilt yields have moved above 5 per cent; Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has reached around 3 per cent, its highest level in roughly 30 years.

What is causing it? Global inflation is at the top of the list. Bondholders hate inflation because they are promised fixed sums of money in the future. If prices rise faster than expected than those future payments buy less.

The Iran War is probably the biggest concern as far as inflation is concerned. It has reduced the flow of oil from the Gulf which has in turn pushed energy prices to staggering levels. Energy is the basic building block of modern life.

Next, is that governments have borrowed too much. In the immediate aftermath of the 2008 banking crisis interest rates dropped precipitously. Borrowed money was cheap so governments borrowed heavily. At one stage, interest rates in Japan dropped below zero percent. That meant that investors were effectively paying the Japanese government for the privilege of lending it money.

What governments failed to consider was that in the bond market, what goes down eventually goes back up. Increased interest rates means it costs more to service a government’s debt. Governments are forced to either raise taxes, and or cut spending to pay the extra interest. Pile on top of that the cost of covid, maintenance of the welfare state, more defence spending and bondholders begin to question the ability of governments to honour their bond commitments and start asking for more money. This in turn only increases the dangerous debt levels.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged bond market | 9 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 30th August 2026 - 9:36 am

CIA

Why did CIA Director John Ratcliffe fly to Moscow? It definitely was not the “semi-routine” visit that Donald Trump claims.

The last time the head of the Central Intelligence Agency visited the Russian capital was in November 2021 – and that was hardly routine.

A study of the available reporting and surrounding circumstances point to a similar reason—with a few additional twists. The first reason is that American and British intelligence are reported to have picked up indications that Putin is considering testing NATO’s Article 5 commitment by taking some sort of action against a NATO country. The most likely target is one of the Baltic states.

America’s stock of Patriot interceptors in Europe has reportedly fallen to critically low levels because of their enormous consumption in the Iran war. If Moscow believes Washington is militarily distracted and European air defences depleted, Putin could conceivably think this is an unusually favourable moment to test NATO.

Another complementary reason for the visit is likely to be Ukraine. Ratcliffe is reported to have given his Russian counterpart—Sergei Naryshkin–a distinctly pessimistic assessment of Russia’s position and urged Moscow to enter serious negotiations before its military and economic circumstances deteriorate further.

Iran would also have been discussed. Russia is closely aligned with Tehran, and Washington is trying to increase pressure on Iran while pushing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz back towards normal. CBS reports that Ratcliffe warned Moscow about further sanctions connected with the Strait. Reuters says Russian support for Iran was among the subjects discussed.

In November 2021 President Joe Biden sent CIA director to Moscow to warn Putin not to invade Ukraine. In August 2026 President Donald Trump sent John Ratcliffe on a similar mission. Putin ignored the first CIA director. Why should Washington believe he will listen to the second?

Mid term elections

Time for some detailed analysis of US mid-term election data. Using Cook Political Report, one of America’s best established non-partisan election analysis organisations, the figures show the Democrats in pole position to win the House and with a 50/50 chance to gain control of the Senate.

But let’s take a closer look. Republicans currently have a five-seat majority in the House of Representatives. This means that the Democrats need to win only three seats to gain control. Analysts reckon that they have a chance of gaining 2-10 seats. This means that at the bottom end of the range the Republican retain control with the narrow majority of one and at the top the Democrats have a solid 15-seat majority.

As of 25 August, Cook reckons that there are 21 congressional election races that could be considered toss-ups worth closely watching. They are: two Republican-held seats in Arizona; one Republican-held seat in California; one Republican-held seat in Colorado; two Democrat-held seats in Florida; one Democrat-held seat in Washington state; two Republican-held seats in Iowa; two Republican-held seats in Michigan; one Republican-held seat in New Jersey; one Republican-held seat in New York; one Republican-held seat in Wisconsin; one Democratic-held seat in Ohio; three Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania; one Democratic-held seat in Texas and one Republican-held seat in Virginia.

A quick count of the above reveals that of the 21 toss-ups 16 are currently held by worried Republicans. This means that the Republicans are defending more than three times as many toss-up seats as the Democrats.

Now for the Senate where the Republicans currently have a healthier 53 seats and the Democrats 47. Therefore, the Democrats need a net gain of four to win control. There are seven Senate seats which Cook regards as marginal. They are: Alaska (Republican), Iowa (Republican), Maine (Republican), Michigan (Democrat), Ohio (Republican), Texas (Republican) and North Carolina (Republican).

Cook reckons that North Carolina has moved from marginal Republican to what they call “lean Democrat.” Texas is heading that way with Attorney General Ken Paxton trailing the Democrat James Talarico candidate. The campaigns of the Democrat candidates in Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Alaska have all been given a boost by Trump’s trade war with Canada as the tariffs both sides have imposed will have a big impact on the economies of all those states.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged Central Intelligence Agency, france, germany and united states | 6 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Canada

By Tom Arms | Sat 29th August 2026 - 10:30 am

What is the British government doing to support Canada? It is one of our closest allies. Our relationship with Canada is more special than that with the US. King Charles is their head of state. Canada is a fellow member of NATO, the G7, Five Eyes, the Commonwealth and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

This question should be asked on the floor of the House of Commons. And the person to ask it is Lib Dem leader Ed Davey. He has made his opposition to President Donald Trump crystal clear. The US-Canada trade war is an opportunity to translate opposition rhetoric into specific policies.

But he should be prepared for the answer which is a lot of waffle which will amount to – nothing.

And where is the rest of the world? Since becoming Canada’s Prime Minister, Carney has made 23 foreign trips to 29 countries. Almost all of them to promote his vision of a powerful new bloc of “Middle Powers” who can provide a collective bargaining front to the US and China. In a few weeks he will address the European Parliament.

Everywhere Carney has gone he has been given a sympathetic hearing and important agreements have been signed with the UK, the EU, Japan and Australia. But there is no sign that Canada’s friends are prepared to translate their sympathy into meaningful support in its confrontation with Trump.

The rest of the world is simply frightened of the mercurial American president. If they explicitly back Carney then they run the risk of retaliation from Trump, and virtually all of Carney’s allies are also allies of the US and dependent on the American nuclear umbrella for their ultimate security.

But they don’t need to explicitly join a retaliation against the US. The American political equation is about to dramatically change with the mid-term elections. The Democrats are strongly favoured to win control of the House of Representatives and have a chance of also securing a majority in the Senate. The latest forecasts give the Democrats an 87 percent chance of winning control of the lower chamber and a 55 percent chance of doing the same in the upper chamber. Trump’s tariffs against Canada—in fact Trump himself—are deeply unpopular and a political shift in Congress is likely to mean the end of tariffs against Canada and personal problems for the president.

Carney’s supporters in Asia and Europe don’t need to join his trade war per se. They could show support for accelerating trade agreements; increasing purchases of Canadian goods; offer investment; coordinate critical mineral deals and increase defence procurement cooperation. The framework for the above has already been established by Carney’s diplomacy. It just needs to be activated.

If it is then that would be a giant step towards establishing Carney’s vision of a network of countries and organisations representing 1.5 billion people. This would give members of the network collective bargaining power in any negotiations with the US and China.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged canada, featured and mark carney | 5 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 16th August 2026 - 9:55 am

West Bank

The actions of Israeli settlers in the West Bank must be truly horrific for Mike Huckabee, Trump’s ambassador in Israel, to call them “terrorists” and denounce their actions in Qusra as an “horrific act of terror.”

In the past, Ambassador Huckabee, has been the chief American cheerleader for Israeli settlement of the West Bank. In 2017, before his ambassadorial days, Huckabee said: “There is no West Bank. It’s Judea and Samaria.” Later he added: “I think Israel has the title deeds to Judea and Samaria.”

After he was nominated ambassador in 2024, Huckabee was asked if Israeli annexation was possible in Trump’s second term. “Well, of course,” he replied.

It is quite possible for Huckabee to approve of West Bank annexation while disapproving of the tactics being used to achieve that end. But it is unusual.

Those tactics are indeed the tactics of terrorists. Settlers lay siege to a Palestinian home; cut off the water and electricity; pelt the property with stones and threaten to kill the occupants. When the terrified Palestinians flee for their lives, the settlers simply move in and occupy the home.

Their actions are illegal under international law. In fact the Israeli settlements are illegal and almost every country in the world has called for their withdrawal. The Israeli government, however, is committed to supporting the 600,000 West Bank settlers. In fact, some of the Cabinet are settlers themselves.

But the violence is growing. Some observers believe that the settlers are increasing the pressure on the Palestinians—and the Netanyahu government—because they fear that an anti-settlement government may emerge from the October general election and this is their last chance to establish facts on the ground.

The United Nations has reported that in recent months the number of attacks on Palestinians has grown to six a day.

The Israeli government has ordered the army into the West Bank, allegedly to try and reduce tensions and restore order. But Palestinians are reporting that, in some instances, the army appears to be helping the settlers. In one instance, the IDF ordered a besieged Palestinian family out of their home and then occupied it themselves.

What does Ambassador Huckabee have to say about that?

US water supplies

No one is dead—yet. They are, however, seriously worried that hackers have hacked into computers controlling the water supplies in at least a dozen American states. Even more worrying is that the FBI’s lead suspect is Iran.

In theory, control of the company computers could enable the hackers to poison water supplies. One thing the computers do is regulate the chemicals used to treat drinking water. So far, there has been no sign they have done so, but one Minnesota water authority reported some flooding and loss of water pressure.

America’s water supply industry is a hacker’s dream. It is comprised of tens of thousands of separate companies and water authorities—all hooked up to the internet. There is no federal law governing cybersecurity at these companies. The Environmental Protection Agency tried to impose one in 2023 but was blocked in the courts.

Neither, does it seem, that any federal authority responsible for the cyber security of the country’s critical infrastructure. At the moment a fistful of Washington acronyms –led by the FBI—are involved in investigating the breach.

There is, however, a wider and potentially more dangerous issue at stake. NATO has explicitly said that a cyberattack constitutes an “armed attack” for Article 5 purposes. Article 5 says an attack on one member is an attack on all.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged iran, israel, us midterms and west bank | 4 Comments

Observations of an Expat: The Mecca Agreement

By Tom Arms | Sat 15th August 2026 - 9:51 am

It is time for another round of musical chairs—Middle Eastern style. The region’s countries are notorious for changing their friends and allies as often as their socks and the Mecca Agreement announced this week complicates the issue by throwing up a sandstorm of unresolved questions.

But start with history. The region’s first postwar security alliance was the British-inspired Baghdad Pact. Formed in 1955, it included the UK, Iraq, Iran,, Pakistan and Turkey. After the Iraqi revolution in1959, Iraq pulled out. At that time the Americans—who had been active non-members of the pact—became even more active non-members. Thus the Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO) was formed. It lasted until 1979 and the Iranian revolution.

But how did the Mecca Agreement come about. Well, according to Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, the pact has been three years in the making. The two chief architects appear to be Fidan and Pakistani Defence chief Field Marshal Asim Munir. They kept their talks fairly quiet until this week’s announcement.

Fidan has been heavily involved in Turkey’s foreign policy for decades. He was head of the country’s intelligence services and President Erdogan’s national security adviser before his appointment as foreign minister. For Turkey, the Mecca Agreement is the culmination of Erdogan’s long-standing policy of shifting Turkey away from Europe and towards the Middle East and Islamic world.

Ankara brings a significant contribution to the alliance: a large NATO-trained military and an established and sophisticated defence industry.

Saudi Arabia lacks military muscle but it makes up for that with hard cash. The alliance’s secretariat will be based in Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan’s biggest contribution could be its nuclear arsenal of about 170 weapons. The most interesting thing about the Mecca Agreement is its NATO-style three musketeer clause that commits all the member states to come to the defence of any member state that is attacked. The agreement is ambiguous about the role of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and leaves open the question of whether Saudi Arabia now shelters under the Pakistani nuclear umbrella. The Saudis have for years spoken of acquiring a nuclear capability as a deterrent against attack by a possibly nuclear-armed Iran. Now it may have it.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged egypt, Mecca agreement, pakistan, saudi arabia, turkey and united states | 4 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 9th August 2026 - 8:55 am

Who is responsible for the mass migration of Moroccans into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta?

Some 72,000 migrants swam around a border breakwater to Ceuta beaches. Seventy thousand have been returned. 181 drowned. 1,100 unaccompanied minors have been taken to mainland Spain. A handful remain at large.

Some blame the Spanish Supreme Court which ruled that illegal immigrants arriving by sea should be treated differently. Others say it was simply another example of the power of social media. Some conspiracy theorists are pointing an accusing finger at Donald Trump and Europe’s far-right anti-immigration lobby.

The most credible—but far from certain—villain is the Moroccan government. For a start, it has form. In 2021, during a diplomatic dispute over Madrid’s decision to give medical treatment to Polisario leader Brahim Ghali, Moroccan border controls suddenly became extraordinarily porous. Up to 10,000 people entered Ceuta. The European Parliament subsequently explicitly accused Morocco of using migration as political pressure.

There is also the fact that Morocco claims the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla as well as cluster of Spanish-owned islands off the coast of Morocco. And although have moved close to an agreement on the former Spanish colony of the Western Sahara, Spain still officially recognises the UN designation of “Unresolved Territory.”

Trump and Europe’s far-right parties may not be the dark shadows behind the Ceuta crossing, but they were quick off the mark to exploit it. The most inflammatory statement came from Elon Musk who said the crossing “looked like World War Z.” He also added the wholly false claim: “Spain’s entire budget will be destroyed by illegal immigrants.”

Trump immediately dubbed the crossing an “invasion” and warned that the same thing would happen in America if the Democrats won the mid-term elections.

Within days of the crossing, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, launched its proposed “Operation Fortress” which called for the Royal Navy to be mobilised to stop small boats crossing the English Channel.

Seventy-two thousand people headed for the same stretch of water at roughly the same time. The question for Spanish investigators is whether social media created a stampede—or somebody fired the starting pistol.

You cannot bank on a Donald Trump promise. Ukraine’s Vlodomyr Zelensky discovered that this week—if he didn’t already know it.

Ukraine desperately needs America’s anti-aircraft Patriot missiles protection against Russian missiles. That is why Zelensky was ecstatic when Trump told him at the recent NATO summit that he would allow Ukraine to manufacture the missiles under license.

Trump repeated the offer when Zelensky flew to Washington for Senator Lindsey Graham’s funeral.

Then he changed his mind. On 30 July he told “The Financial Times” that he was “not sure” about the deal. The following day he told a Camp David meeting of the cabinet that nothing has been agreed. “We are talking about it.” He then added that America had to be “very careful” because advanced technology could one day be turned against the United States.

Back in Kyiv, Zelensky was left scratching his head and wondering: What happened?

No one knows for sure. How the presidential brain cogs turn. It is an international mystery. A hurried phone call from Russia’s Vladimir Putin appears to have been ruled out. A more likely explanation is that Trump spoke before he knew all the details such a deal involved.

The Patriot PAC-3 interceptor is among America’s most sophisticated missile technologies. Granting a production licence requires agreement from the Pentagon, export-control authorities and companies such as Lockheed Martin and RTX. Manufacturing the missile involves a network of around 400 subcontractors and the transfer of highly sensitive military technology.

Only one other country—Japan—currently produces Patriots under license and that deal took several years to negotiate and another four or five before Mitsubishi Industries could start production. Germany is likely to be the next country to produce the interceptors. It started negotiations in 2024 and hopes to start production in 2028.

No, the most likely scenario is simply that the president spoke out of turn–again.

Donald Trump may rue the day he decided to take on the BBC. His decision to sue the Beeb for $10 billion over the bad editing of a Panorama report could seriously backfire.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged tom arms world review | 1 Comment

Observations of an Expat An Iranian Who’s Who

By Tom Arms | Sat 8th August 2026 - 8:30 am

America’s Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, recently told American television that the problem with negotiating with Iran is that the Iranians are hopelessly divided.

He was right. Nobody is certain that the Iranian sitting across the negotiating table can make the rest of Iran obey any agreement.

The diplomats and politicians who meet with J.D. Vance, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, et al, are generally pragmatists who want an end to war and sanctions. But back home they are being undermined by revolutionary ideologues prepared to embrace martyrdom.

The pragmatists are led by President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. 71-year-old Pezeshkian is a heart surgeon who entered politics as the Minister for Health. He has been president of Iran since 2024.

His religious credentials are sound. He supports the theory of the Islamic Revolution. He has to because all candidates for the presidency—and the Majlis—are vetted by the Council of Guardians for their religious credentials.

But at the same time, Pezeshkian’s chief loyalty is to the state rather than to the concept of the revolution. To that end he favours ending Iran’s international isolation; wants to revive the economy and end sanctions; and favours social freedoms.

Pezehskian’s main ally is Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, aged 63, who served as Iran’s ambassador to Japan and deputy foreign minister before becoming foreign minister in 2024. He is a professional negotiator and has led the Iranian delegation in talks with the US. Like Pezeshkian, Araghchi is a pragmatist committed to the idea of Iran as an Islamic state.

The chief opposition to the pragmatic wing is led by 61-year-old Saeed Jalil, leader of the Paydari (Stability) Front which directly holds 90 seats in the 290-seat Majlis (parliament). He can also usually count on about 30 other votes.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged observations of an ex pat | 5 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 2nd August 2026 - 9:42 am

Donald Trump

Trump loves a winner. He is less keen on anyone blocking his objectives.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used to be the former and is now the latter. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky used to the be latter and is now the former.

This was apparent to anyone watching the visits to Washington this week of Zelensky and Netanyahu. Zelensky and Trump were all smiles. Zelensky described the talks as “a good meeting” and the White House used the term “cordial.” The bilateral summit was in stark contract to the February 2025 Oval Office showdown when Trump and Vice President Vance set out to publicly humiliate the Ukrainian leader.

Part of the explanation is simple: In February 2025, Ukraine was on the defensive, if not losing. By the summer of 2026 it had regained the initiative and for the first time in many months, was looking capable of improving its position, if not winning the war outright.

Netanyahu, on the other hand, won no favours when he refused to endorse Trump’s latest plans for Gaza. Trump ignored him and announced that Hamas had agreed to disarm. The Israeli leader also hurt his cause by having what were described as “frank discussions” in a private meeting with Vance – diplomatic shorthand for almighty row.

There is also the fact that Netanyahu is widely reported as having persuaded Trump to join him in an attack on Iran. It would be over quickly, he assured the president. It isn’t and Trump, America and rest of the world are suffering because of it.

The changing mood is reflected in Congress. Support for Ukraine has become broader and more enthusiastic. Israel still commands considerable backing, but Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran has created fissures in its previously rock-solid bipartisan support.

Israel

Israeli West Bank settlers don’t have much time. There is a good chance that the complexion of the government may change after elections on October 27 and the orthodox parties that back their West Bank land grab will be out.

So, they are seizing more territory and provoking more confrontations with Palestinian residents, calculating that this will lead the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) to deploy more troops to the area and facilitate more land grabs. “We are definitely initiating friction and we’re proud of this,” Elisha Yered, an outspoken settler leader, said in a recent interview.

The IDF claims to be enforcing order. But it has overseen a steep rise in violence against Palestinians. In the first six months of 2026 there were 660 “nationalistic” attacks in the West Bank, up from 405 in the previous six months, according to the Shin Bet, Israel’s security agency.

In some cases, soldiers have tried to restrain settlers, who have responded with violence. But in many more cases soldiers, either acting on their own initiative or as part of organised units, have been seen taking part in attacks against Palestinians or protecting settlers carrying them out.

The IDF has set up protective cordons around new settlements and built roads to dozens of them. In many cases the work destroyed swathes of orchards and vineyards owned by Palestinians.

The surge in violence seems likely to reap more violence. For the past three years, the war in Gaza has occupied Palestinian militants. But events in the West Bank have made an armed backlash or a more widespread Palestinian uprising there a distinct possibility.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged anthony fauci, donald trump, global warming and israel | 4 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Gaza Sceptic

By Tom Arms | Sat 1st August 2026 - 9:34 am

Pardon my scepticism, but I do not think Trump’s recent announcement about Hamas’s disarmament is the diplomatic breakthrough that some commentators are claiming.

For a start, there is Trump’s well-known tendency to jump the diplomatic starting line before the starter has entered the stadium. It is a tendency that has scuppered several delicate diplomatic negotiations.

Usually, Trump’s over-egged statements are designed to deflect from his failings elsewhere. Success in Gaza shifts focus away from the Iran War, confirmation hearings and the rising price of petrol. Or he may be trying to push either Hamas or Israel into a deal.

In this respect, it is important to note that neither Qatar nor Egypt—key members of the negotiating team—have said anything about Hamas, disarmament or Trump’s announcement.

Next, there is Hamas’s statement on the issue which is not that different from its previous statements. Yes, we will disarm as stipulated in phase two of the ceasefire agreement, when and if Israel fulfils its obligations under phase one of the agreement.

Those obligations were to withdraw Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) so that they occupied 53 percent of Gaza. Under phase two it would be reduced to 40 percent and phase three would leave the IDF in control of a 15 percent security perimeter which would eventually disappear.

At the moment, the IDF controls nearly 70 percent of Gaza. It has built defensive bunkers, established communications systems and knocked down buildings to improve firing sight lines. Army engineers do not build permanent fortifications if they are planning to leave in a few weeks.

Phase one also called on Israel to allow the resumption of humanitarian aid to at least pre-war levels. Before the war there were 700-730 trucks laden with humanitarian aid trundling past Israeli-controlled checkpoints into Gaza. Today there are just over 500. This at a time when the need is far greater with hundreds of thousands of displaced persons living in beachfront tents and receiving all their meals from communal kitchens.

Finally, the ceasefire agreement explicitly said that all fighting would stop immediately. Since the agreement was signed 1,168 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza health officials. In the same period, according to the IDF, four Israeli soldiers died.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged gaza and hamas | 2 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 26th July 2026 - 9:14 am

Donald Trump

Donald Trump has discovered the virtues of fighting forced labour—provided he does not look too closely at America’s record.

This week he slapped tariffs of 10-12.5 percent on 60 countries—including the UK—because they imported goods from countries that used forced or abusive labour.

Well, so does the United States. In fact, several of its home-grown companies have, in fact, been prosecuted for using forced labour. And this is according to reports from America’s State Department, the Department of Justice and the Department of Labour.

But first the issue of importation. Trump is on reasonably firm ground using the issue of abusive labour practices to try replacing his first illegal round of tariffs with a fresh batch. Since 1930, there has been a law prohibiting the importation of goods produced by abusive labour practices.

However, that law is almost impossible to enforce. If it was it would result in a wide ban on Chinese goods. America’s chocolate manufacturers would be unable to import the cocoa from Ghana and the Ivory Coast that it needs to satisfy millions of sweet tooth Americans. There would be virtually no rubber or palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia nor sugar from the Dominican Republic. And the above list is only a small sample of the affected products.

The fact is that today’s world of complicated supply chains involving multiple countries makes it virtually impossible to identify products that involve forced labour.

But on to the United States where employers exploit the legal vulnerability of undocumented workers to indulge in abusive labour practices in agriculture, hospitality, construction and domestic service. Every year the Department of Labour and the Justice Department prosecute numerous cases involving migrants. American employers use their illegal status to hold them in debt bondages, confiscate their passports, threaten them with deportation and force them to work up to 17 hours a day.

Not all the offences involve immigrants. The DOJ reports rising incidences of child labour, particularly in meat processing plants. One of the recent high-profile cases involved more than 100 children working overnight to clean dangerous meat processing equipment. The company was fined $1.5 million.

Perhaps the most controversial labour abuse involves American prisons. The Thirteenth Amendment abolished slavery “accept as a punishment for crime.” Many American prisons are managed by private companies who use the prisoners to secure production contracts for which the prisoners are paid miniscule wages or nothing.

When it comes to labour abuses, the United States is living in a glass house, and President Trump has just thrown a set of bricks through several panes.

Iran

Trump’s Iran War may yet claim another strategic victim—nuclear non-proliferation in the Middle East.

For decades it has been an unshakable tenet of US—nay, Western—foreign policy that everything possible should be done to prevent the spread of nuclear technology in the strategically vital but highly unstable Middle East.

Israel was the exception. It is believed to have an estimated 60 nuclear weapons. They have served their purpose in deterring an Arab state attack since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. And besides, there was little that the US could do to prevent Israel from acquiring the bomb.

Nuclear non-proliferation in the region is the stated main purpose of America’s current war with Iran. And Trump’s apparent failure to stop the Iranians must be behind this week’s announcement that Washington will help Saudi Arabia develop a nuclear industry.

The Saudis’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has made it clear on several occasions that if Iran develops a nuclear weapon than Saudi Arabia must also have one to protect itself from attack from its age-old on the opposite shore of the Persian Gulf.

The Washington announcement said that the provision of the technology would be accompanied by regular visits from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ensure that the Saudis are not using the expertise to develop a weapon. But then, the IAEA also conducted regular checks on the Iranians.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged forced labour, iceland, iran and united states | 2 Comments

Observations of an Expat: The American Vote

By Tom Arms | Sat 25th July 2026 - 10:08 am

There are growing signs that Donald Trump is preparing the ground for a challenge to close congressional election results in the mid-terms. Several election law experts have warned about Republican shenanigans.

Scenarios range from the highly unlikely declaration of martial law and seizure of ballot boxes to attempts to delay certification of Democrat winners. The second possibility is regarded by most legal experts as the most likely and would be designed to influence the organisation of the House in the key early days of the next Congress.

The Republicans don’t need to challenge all the races. Only the ones where the Democrats win. The Republicans will be unchallenged—at least by Trump. And it won’t be in every seat won by the Democrat. It will be in the close races and in the districts and states where there are large immigrant communities or where there are a sizable of mail-in or absentee ballots. Trump doesn’t like those.

There are several ways that an election can be challenged. For a start, there is the recount. In some states if the difference between the two leading candidates is below a certain number than a recount is automatically called. But a losing candidate has the right to ask for a recount, especially if they believe there are irregularities in the mail-in and absentee ballots.

Recounts can be dealt with quickly. Not so easily to deal with are claims of ineligible voters or machine failures. These can take weeks of careful examination of each ballot paper.

Each state is different in how it handles elections. But in each state questions about machine failures, mail-in and absentee ballots and ineligible voters requires the losing candidate to file a lawsuit raising specific legal claims and seeking an injunction delaying certification of the election results. It is the delay that could be important.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump and us mid-term elections 2026 | Leave a comment

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 12th July 2026 - 10:30 am

NATO

The NATO summit was a wild diplomatic roller coaster ride. But then, how could it be otherwise with President Donald J. Trump in attendance.

Ankara was another example of his negotiating style: Start with the maximalist position delivered in the loudest and most belligerent style and then gradually back away from that and claim a happy agreement which is probably nowhere near the truth.

Trump arrived demanding Denmark give him Greenland. If the Danes refused, he would withdraw all US troops from Europe. He also said that the US was ending all trade with Spain because of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s refusal to let Trump use American airbases for attacks on Iran, or even to allow him to use Spanish airspace. Finally, he attacked Iranians “as vicious scum” and again criticised NATO allies for refusing to help him in the Middle East.

It didn’t work. Denmark, backed by the rest of the alliance, stood firm on Greenland and the Europeans are turning a deaf ear and blind eye to his rants about Iran. Trump started the war. He can finish it.

Spain is more interesting. US companies have billions invested in Spain and the trade between the two countries runs into billions more. Ending trade is not that simple and is self-defeating. Trump has instructed lawyers to come up with a plan. They will likely come up with some form of selective tariffs, but even that is difficult because of Spain’s membership of the EU.

What Trump achieved in Ankara was more headlines that he thinks made him look good for his MAGA base. What the rest of the Alliance achieved is confirmation that they are right to increase defence spending; become less dependent on American-built weaponry; become politically more independent of America and to continue to work towards becoming a separate Western political pillar supported by their own military-industrial complex.

Ukraine

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky went to Ankara hoping to buy more American Patriot missile systems. He left with a licence to manufacture them.

For months Donald Trump’s approach to Ukraine has been characterised by pressure on Kyiv. He has attacked Zelensky, paused aid, presented himself as the equidistant honest broker between Russia and Ukraine when he was leaning heavily towards Russia.

Then came Ankara. Trump publicly praised Zelensky. He spoke of his “very good relationship” with the Ukrainian leader. And then…Trump presents Ukraine with the gift of the license to manufacture Patriot air defence missiles in Ukraine.

Ukraine now ceases to be merely a consumer of Western weaponry (although its drone manufacturers were also steering Ukraine towards weapons independence) and becomes a producer of Western weapons. The licence to produce inside Ukraine also means that replacement missiles and components can be manufactured and moved more quickly to the frontline.

The license also represents another step towards integrating Ukraine into the Western defence-industrial base without having to grant it NATO membership.

But why the change in Trump’s policy? Mainly because the gods of war are starting to move to Ukraine’s side. For years, Vladimir Putin had Trump convinced that he was “holding the cards” in the Ukraine war. That there was no way that the Russian steam roller could lose.

Ukraine is not winning. But neither is it losing. The Russians continue to throw waves of suicidal attacks against a seemingly impenetrable Ukrainian frontline. Meanwhile the Ukrainians have started to score points with long-range drone attacks on Russian oil installations and factories.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged 2026 world cup, donald trump and ukraine | 2 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Visions of America

By Tom Arms | Sat 11th July 2026 - 10:25 am

For those who looked carefully, there were two contrasting visions of America at its 250th birthday. Each was presented by a prominent American and could not have been more different.

The first Is Donald Trump’s America First vision. This is an America where immigrants are not only refused entry but are rounded up by armed agents; sent to overcrowded detention camps and deported. It is vision which is viewed through the narrow lens of American nationalism.

The second was rooted in the idea that America has a responsibility beyond its borders—a universal vision which is closely linked to immigration, human dignity and the belief that America’s ideals belong to everyone, not just Americans.

The universalist vision was expounded by another prominent American, Pope Leo XIV. The pope was invited to Washington for the 4th of July celebrations. He declined the invitation. The Vatican has never explained why the pope declined, but some papal observers have speculated that Leo was concerned that his visit would be used for political purposes supporting Donald Trump.

Pope Leo did, however, visit via video link the day before the big day. On July 3rd, he was presented via Zoom link with the Liberty Medal at the National Constitution Centre in Philadelphia. The medal is presented annually to the individual whose “courage and conviction” has done the most to advance the cause of liberty around the world. The centre is strictly non-partisan, and former recipients have included Volodymyr Zelensky and the Dalai Lama

In his acceptance speech, Pope Leo was careful to echo the centre’s non-partisan tradition. He did not criticise the administration. He did not mention Trump’s name. He did not call for open borders. However he did express the hope that America would remain “ever true to the dream that has earned it the title of land of the free and home of the brave.”

He also praised the Declaration of Independence whose ideals he hoped would remain “a guiding light for the present moment and for the years to come.” Finally, the pope said that America had become a “byword for freedom” because of the way the country had welcomed successive generations. And he urged Americans to remain faithful to that tradition.”

Posted in Op-eds | 4 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 5th July 2026 - 9:15 am

July 4th

America is so divided that it cannot even decide how best to celebrate the country’s 250th birthday.

Ten years ago Congress set up a bipartisan committee to organise America’s 250th birthday celebrations. The committee- which was called America 250—would have a budget of $100 million.

But almost as soon as he started his second term, Trump, decided to set up a rival organisation which he called Freedom 250. It was part of his anti-woke, anti-DEI and white nationalist campaign. Trump did not like the way America 250 told the American story. The bipartisan committee focused on the story of achievement but at the same time acknowledged failures and contradictions.

Freedom 250, on the other hand, presents American history as an inspirational story of exceptionalism, patriotism and national greatness. Naturally, white men dominate.

The events that Freedom 250 organised were typically Trumpian: a NASCAR race in Washington; The UFC cage fight in front of the White House, athletic games, military displays and a “Great American State Fair” on the Mall which stretches from the Capitol to the Lincoln Memorial. At midnight on July 4, Freedom 250 will set off “the largest firework display in history.”

Trump’s plans have run into difficulties. The UFC fight was roundly condemned. The numbers attending the Great American State Fair are significantly lower than expected and a number of singers who were expected to perform have backed out when they realised that the president was behind the event.

Trump says he is not concerned about the cancelled artistes. Instead of singers he intends to “give the longest speech I have ever given.”

Meanwhile, America 250 is struggling to pay the bills. Only $25 million of the promised $100 million has materialised. Much of it is believed to have been redirected on Trump’s orders to the Freedom 250 account. Democrat Congressman have pledged to investigate.

NATO

Trump flies from the July 4 celebrations to Ankara for what has been billed as “one of the most consequential NATO summits” in the alliance’s history.

Reports suggest that the American president intends to arrive with both guns blazing; one of them aimed at the defence spending of his allies and the other at their refusal to become involved in the Iran War. “They weren’t there for us!!!” Trump recently wrote on his Truth Social platform. In Trump’s playbook, alliances are reciprocal.

The president’s long-term aim is probably not all that different from that of the Europeans and Canadians. He envisages an alliance where the US remains the primary nuclear guarantor. America would also provide strategic lift, intelligence and high-end capabilities. The Europeans would pay for and field the bulk of the conventional forces in Europe so that the US can concentrate on China.

Posted in News | Tagged NATO | 2 Comments

Observations of an Expat: I am an Immigrant

By Tom Arms | Sat 4th July 2026 - 10:03 am

I am an immigrant. I emigrated from the United States to the United Kingdom on the 12th of December 1971.

I had studied for a year in Britain 18 months before and fell in love with the country and one of its citizens and moved back despite the dreary weather and traffic jams.

I did not flee a Middle Eastern War. I did not turf up at Heathrow claiming political persecution. I did not risk my life to cross the English Channel in freezing weather. Nor was I fleeing from poverty or conflict. In fact, if I had stayed in America I would probably be enjoying a comfortable country club existence.

Nevertheless, I feel an affinity with African, Asian, Hispanic, or any person from any race or country who left their homeland to seek a new life. It is not easy to leave the safety net of cultural familiarity, family and friends.

If you are born to a country your acceptance is automatic. As an immigrant you have to constantly prove your worth and justify your decision to uproot your entire life and start afresh. At the end of the day, you, more than a native-born person must feel that you have contributed something.

I feel I have succeeded. I started an international news agency which launched the careers of well over a hundred journalists. My children are all a credit to me as are the 200 boys—many of them now young men– who have passed through my scout group over the past 25 years.

I am not boasting. In fact, I don’t regard myself as particularly unusual. Immigrants in every country have outstanding records of contributing to their adopted homelands.

Think about it. By their very nature immigrants have proven through their actions that they are risk takers. They are adventurers. They are focused, determined and prepared to work hard to achieve their aims. Such people are assets to any community lucky enough to have them.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged immigration | 13 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 28th June 2026 - 8:55 am

Donald Trump

Trump is all about revenge. Just ask James Comey and others who failed to jump when the master called.

Secretary of Defence/War Pete Hegseth echoes the presidential instincts, and he has made it clear that the president is angry that Europeans did not fly to his aid in Iran when he wanted in the way that he wanted.

Hegseth added that if Europeans fail to support American operations, then they cannot assume that America will continue stationing tens of thousands of troops on their soil.

Hegseth’s threat follows the comment from Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the forthcoming NATO heads of government summit in Ankara on July 6-7 could be the “most consequential” in the Alliance’s history.

Put together, it is easy to conclude that the president might be planning to use the summit to announce long-anticipated significant withdrawals of US troops in Europe.

There are more than 62,000 US troops based in Europe. They do more than provide a first line of defence against conventional attack from the East. They are 62,000 free-spending Yanks who support tens of thousands of jobs. Many local economies are dependent on American troops.

And that is how Hegseth and Trump view the presence of US forces in Europe. Primarily in transactional terms involving the expenditure of US dollars outside American borders.

There is, however, much, much more involved in their presence. US troops in Europe have enabled America to project military and political power on a global scale. That projection has in turned produced trillions of dollars for the American GDP.

The 10,000 American airmen in England’s East Anglia are the backbone of the unsinkable aircraft carrier off the coast of Europe. The US base at Naples is the command centre for its Mediterranean fleet. Ramstein Airbase in Germany is a major medical evacuation centre as well as the command headquarters for operations in Africa and the Middle East.

Trump’s instinct is for revenge. But like many instincts, it is self-defeating.

The atemoya

An obscure tropical fruit has become the latest proxy in the Cold War between Taiwan and China. The atemoya, a sweet hybrid of the sugar apple and cherimoya, is at the centre of an economic and political battle that has little to do with agriculture and everything to do with sovereignty.

The atemoya originated in Florida in 1908 as a cross between the sugar apple and the cherimoya. Heart-shaped it has a pale-green skin with knobbly segments and poisonous black seeds.

But it is the inside that counts. The meat of the fruit has been described as a mixture of pineapple, pear, strawberry, vanilla and coconut. One agronomist referred to it as “the pina colada of the fruit world.”

Even better than the fruit’s taste is the price that it commands. The average export price of the atemoya is $3.16 a kilo and a single fruit can weigh over a kilo.

Some of the world’s best growing conditions for the atemoya can be found in Taiwan’s Taitung County, a mountainous agricultural region. Before 2021, farmers made an exceptionally good living out of exporting 80-90 percent of their atemoya crop to mainland China. Then disaster struck.

Beijing suddenly banned all imports of the “green gold” of the fruit world, claiming that it had become infected with the Pacific mealybug. Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) denounced the claim as a politically motivated protest.

Taiwan’s atemoya growers faced financial ruin and just barely survived the crisis with a combination of government subsidies and a diversification into the Japanese and South Korean markets and processed foods.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged china, iran, taiwan and US troops | 1 Comment

Observations of an Expat: Gaza

By Tom Arms | Sat 27th June 2026 - 10:33 am

While the world’s attention has been fixed on Iran, Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz, Gaza has quietly slipped from the headlines. That is unfortunate, because the territory is settling into a dangerous and potentially permanent limbo.

Except for the occasional exchange of fire, fighting between Hamas and the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) has stopped. What has replaced conflict is an armed truce with a deep mutual distrust preventing any progress on last autumn’s peace plan.

The IDF still occupies more than 60 percent of Gaza with orders from Benjamin Netanyahu to increase that slice to 70 percent. The two million Gazans are crowded into a tent city on the beaches in the 30 percent which remains in Palestinian hands. There is chronic unemployment and the Gazans are totally dependent on aid for their survival.

The IDF occupation was—still is—billed as “temporary security buffers.” Nine months later, however, the ‘temporary’ zones contain fortified bases, permanent roads for armour, observation posts, logistics hubs and cleared fields of fire. They increasingly resemble the infrastructure of a long-term military occupation.

The IDF was meant to hand over control to a 20,000-strong International Stabilisation Force (ISF) which would oversee the final disarmament of Hamas and the training of a Palestinian Police. So far only 200 American soldiers have turned up, and they don’t appear to have a role. Several countries have been approached to contribute to the ISF, but all are frightened at being caught in the middle of an Israeli-Hamas crossfire.

The 15-member team of Palestinian technocrats who are supposed to run Gaza until elections can be organised has been appointed. It even has a chairman, former Palestinian Authority official Dr Ali Sha-ath. But the committee has yet to leave Cairo. They refuse to enter Gaza until the security situation improves. In their absence, Hamas continues to exercise political control.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged gaza | 3 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 21st June 2026 - 11:10 am

Iran

The Iran War has forced American motorists to reconsider long road trips. At the same time a farmer in Kenya is facing a drastic drop in his $2,200 income and a Sri Lankan construction worker in Dubai is worrying about how his wife and children would survive without his remittances. The Iran War has been little more than an inconvenience for most people in the West. For those in the developing world it was—still is – a matter of life and death.

The people in the developing world were already reeling from the effects of cuts in foreign aid, the covid pandemic and the Ukraine War before the Iran War closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Petrol prices rose by as much as 50 percent in the US. They rose by the same amount in Kenya. The difference is that the average household income in America is $80,000. In Kenya it is $2,200.

East Africa imports about 25 percent of its fertiliser supplies from the Gulf region. The start of the Iran War coincided with the start of the planting season. If a farmer is unable to afford fertiliser than he buys less. This means lower farm incomes, higher maize prices, higher prices for animal feed, higher meat and milk prices. Greater food insecurity.

In the United States, agriculture contributes approximately one percent to the country’s GDP. In East Africa it contributes about a quarter and employs half of the population. Roughly 70 percent of Africa’s 1.5 billion people are directly or indirectly employed in agriculture.

Remittances to developing countries are also suffering. The Gulf countries are not known for their enlightened labour practices. In fact, for many migrant workers, conditions have been described as akin to “modern slavery.”

Millions, however, leave their families in Africa and South Asia to live up to ten in a room while working on construction sites in the Gulf region. When the bombs started to fall many of those workers were laid off. For countries such as Nepal—where 25 percent of the economy is remittances—this meant financial ruin.

Families from Mombasa to Kathmandu suddenly faced the cruel arithmetic of paying more food and fuel with less money arriving from sons and daughters working in Dubai or Riyadh.

Americans and the rest of the world

Americans often struggle to understand the rest of the world. That is an over-generalisation. America has produced some of the world’s finest experts on China, Russia, Britain and the Middle East. But the average American has little need to look beyond his own borders.

Why should he? America spans a continent. It possesses almost every climate, every landscape and nearly every natural resource. Its entertainment industry dominates the globe. Most Americans spend their lives without needing another language and only about one in five owns a passport.

That self-sufficiency has bred a certain assumption: that what works in America should work everywhere. It is not unique. The British Empire convinced itself that imperial rule brought civilisation. Vladimir Putin appears to have believed that Ukrainians would greet Russian tanks with flowers. Great powers have always had a tendency to mistake their own preferences for universal truths.

The tragedy is that military and economic power can reinforce this misconception. If you are powerful enough, people often tell you what you want to hear. Success breeds confidence. Confidence breeds hubris.

Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and now Iran all share a common thread. Again and again, Washington has assumed that superior force could overcome history, culture and nationalism. Again and again, it has discovered that people usually prefer imperfect governments of their own choosing to enlightened rulers imposed from outside.

America’s problem is not that it is uniquely arrogant. It is that, like every great power before it, it has become convinced that its own experience is universal.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged iran and north korea | 3 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Surviving Iran

By Tom Arms | Sat 20th June 2026 - 9:23 am

America will survive the Iran War. It has survived worse. Israel may not be so fortunate. Superpowers can afford mistakes. Small countries living in dangerous neighbourhoods cannot.

People have been predicting the decline of American power since Vietnam. America lost in Vietnam, failed in Iraq and Afghanistan, and suffered humiliation in Somalia. Yet the United States remains the world’s dominant military and financial power. Superpowers can absorb defeats. They possess strategic depth.

Of course, the same may not be said about individual politicians. Donald Trump has been seriously weakened inside and outside MAGA world. So have the Republican politicians who have hitched themselves to the Trumpian star.

But in the case of Israel, there is more at stake than a few right-wing security-minded politician. Israel is a country of fewer than ten million in a hostile region. Its security rests on three pillars: military superiority, American support and deterrence—the belief among its enemies that resistance is futile.

If the Iran War has weakened any of those pillars, the consequences for Israel are potentially much greater than for the United States. America’s allies may doubt Washington’s judgment, but they are unlikely to abandon the dollar or NATO. Israel, by contrast faces increased diplomatic isolation; reduced confidence in US support; strengthened adversaries convinced that Israel’s power has limits; domestic political divisions and—most important of all—the end of the aura of invincibility that has been central to Israeli strategy since 1967.

In Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu thought he had found a kindred spirit who believed in solving problems through the barrel of a gun with a few dollars thrown in for good measure. In Gaza he humbled Hamas with American help. It cost 73,000 Palestinian lives and a great deal of international support. Americans, for the first time, began to question their unquestioning support for Israel.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged benjamin netanyahu, donald trump, iran and israel | 6 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 7th June 2026 - 10:04 am

AI

Sitting next to Pope Leo XIV when he launched his controversial encyclical on AI was Chris Olah—co-founder of the AI company Anthropic.

His presence was no accident. The Pope’s 235 page “Magnifica Humanitas” calls for regulation of technology to protect the dignity of humankind.

Olah’s position is the same and he has made a name for himself by refusing to allow the Trump Administration to use Anthropic for military and intelligence purposes.

Olah is on one side of a technologically-driven political divide in Silicon Valley. On the other side are figures such as Marc Andreesen, who has been involved with many of the tech industry’s leading brands and Peter Thiel, CEO of the AI company Palantir.

Thiel and Andreesen far-right libertarians who want to avoid regulation. They see technological development as essential and that the controllers of technology should also control the politics for the benefit of all. Both men are big contributors to Donald Trump and conservative causes.

The debate goes beyond Silicon Valley to the international political stage. The Trump Administration big concern is winning the AI race with China. Donald Trump recently signed an Executive Order allow government oversight to prevent cyber-attacks. But he did so reluctantly. He wants to keep regulation to a minimum; encourage private investment in AI and then use the product as an instrument of national power.

The EU wants AI to grow. It wants investment in European AI companies but they view government’s role as a partner and referee rather than spectator.

To put it simply: Trump wants to win the race. Brussels—and the pope-want to control AI. Britain wants to win the race safely.

The difficulty for Britain is that middle positions become harder to maintain as technologies mature. During the early nuclear age, Britain initially tried to bridge Washington and continental Europe. Eventually it had to choose where to place its strategic weight.

AI may force a similar decision. If the next decade brings increasingly powerful AI systems, the central geopolitical question may not be US versus China but whether the Western world adopts the American model of strategic competition or the European model of precautionary governance

Donald Trump and the liberal consensus

The Trump administration has always been an alliance of groups and people that oppose the so-called liberal consensus: the idea that the U.S. government should regulate business, provide social welfare programs, promote infrastructure projects, protect civil rights, and support a rules-based international order.

Since the 1980s Republicans accepted many of the institutional pillars of the post-war order—especially free trade, alliances and global leadership—even while seeking to reduce regulation and constrain the growth of government.

Trump upended that system, promising to dismantle the federal government built around the liberal consensus, the government his voters thought they hated because they thought its protection of equality before the law gave Black Americans, Brown Americans, women, and gender or religious minorities a leg up on white Christian men.

This racist lobby combined with a growing number concerned about immigration, cultural change, distrust of elites, de-industrialisation and globalisation. Or they thought funding for science wasted their money on the research that right-wing influencers mocked for wasting their money and intruding on their freedom. Or they thought the U.S. contribution to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and U.S. participation in alliances did not put “America First.”

In 2024, Trump cobbled together enough groups who thought that way to win the White House, and as soon as he took power, he set out to destroy the liberal consensus government with the help of loyalists he installed in key positions.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged AI, donald trump and iran war | 1 Comment

Observations of an Expat: NATO Irony

By Tom Arms | Sat 6th June 2026 - 8:58 am

Marco Rubio says the next month’s NATO summit will be one of the most consequential in history. He is right—but not for the reasons he imagines.

President Trump has spent years demanding that Europe take responsibility for its own defence. The Europeans have finally agreed. The problem is that they have also concluded that they cannot rely entirely on Washington.

That realisation is likely to dominate the summit. The immediate result will be more defence spending. The long-term result may be the emergence of a European military-industrial complex capable of challenging America’s dominance of the global arms market.

If so, future historians may conclude that Donald Trump did more than persuade Europe to rearm. He persuaded it to compete.

It will not be a happy group when the 32 NATO leaders gather in Ankara on 7-8 July. The 30 European members are still angry about Donald Trump’s designs on Greenland; statements about “European civilisational decline” and his failure to consult allies before starting a war with Iran. Trump is angry that Denmark won’t handover Greenland; NATO restrictions on US airbases during the Iran War and the Alliance’s failure to join the Israeli-American war on Iran.

But at the top of the agenda will be the Ukraine War and European re-armament. The Trump Administration has successfully shifted the cost of arming Ukraine from American to European shoulders with the PURL (Prioritised Ukrainian Requirements List) programme. Trump plus the Ukraine War and the growing Russian threat has prompted Europe that it needs more weapons now. It takes time to build the factories and shipyards to make them so they are by buying more from America.

The Russian threat is bonanza for the US defence industry. Between 2021 and 2015 European arms imports increased 217 percent over the previous five-year period. The estimated amount is $220 billion. European NATO is rushing to fill its defence gaps with off-the-shelf F-35s, Patriot Missile Systems, HIMARS, Apache helicopters and munitions.

But while shelling out billions to America, Europeans are also building the factories and shipyards that will build the weapons that will in the long-term replace American imports.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump and NATO | 9 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 31st May 2026 - 9:30 am

Cuba

A $100 million would go a long way to alleviate the humanitarian crisis caused by the US blockade of Cuba.

The island’s communist government has already made big concessions on the economic front in an attempt to appease the Trump Administration.

It has legalised small and medium-sized private businesses; abolished Cuba’s dual currency; opened more than 2,000 additional occupations to private initiative and allowed exiled Cubans to invest in the island’s economy.

On the political front they have been less forthcoming. Only a handful of political prisoners have been released and there is no sign of the regime introducing freedom of expression or a reform of its judicial system.

There is also the additional problem of who distributes the aid should it be released. Havana says it will handle the distribution through established government channels. Washington says those channels are corrupt and the money must be distributed by the Catholic church.

Finally, there is the question of whether the $100 million carrot is a mere ruse. That the Trump Administration will settle for nothing less than complete regime change; the dismantlement of Cuba’s socialist state and the return to pre-1959 style American domination of the Caribbean island.

To achieve that, Washington may just have to invade the island. They increasingly appear prepared to do just that. The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz has been parked in the Caribbean. The Cuban president, 94-year-old Raul Castro, has been indicted for murder.

And finally, Cuban-American Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that the military option is more likely than the diplomatic.

Israel

Benjamin Netanyahu has proven himself a tough man. Since the October 7 attacks he has launched wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, to say nothing of the continuing turmoil in the West Bank. Few Israeli leaders have confronted so many enemies on so many fronts.

But toughness alone will not win the forthcoming election. Opinion polls show his approval ratings at between 40 and 47 percent and Likud is trailing a coalition opposition. If Netanyahu is to survive politically, he must prove not only that he can start wars, but that he can end them—and win them.

In Gaza Hamas has been badly damaged but not destroyed. This week the government ordered the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to increase their occupation from 64 percent of the territory to 70 percent. Yet despite repeated declarations of imminent victory from both Jerusalem and Washington, there remains no clear political settlement and no obvious answer to the question of what happens to Gaza when the fighting finally ends.

The ceasefire in Lebanon is meant to be an integral element in the ceasefire in the Iran War. Yet Israel continues to fire missiles into Lebanon and has moved ground forces into the southern part of the country to create a security zone. Netanyahu says he sees no reason to “take his foot off the pedal.” For many Israelis, a security zone may look like a military necessity. For others, it looks suspiciously like another open-ended commitment.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged cuba, india and israel | 1 Comment

Observations of an Expat: The Elephant Returns

By Tom Arms | Sat 30th May 2026 - 9:24 am

For several years the Brexit elephant sat quietly in a corner of Westminster, ignored by politicians who hoped it would eventually wander away. Instead, it has stood up, stretched its legs and begun stomping through the corridors of power once again.

“Rejoin,” Brexit was a “catastrophic mistake,” declared wannabe prime minister Wes Streeting.

Not so fast, said other main contender Andy Burnham, he hoped Britain would rejoin “in my lifetime” (Burnham is 56), but feared that any sudden rush to rejoin would further divide an already divided country.

Former PM Tony Blair then entered the fray with his 6,000-word essay. The former staunch Remainer opposed a quick application to return to the European fold. Instead, Britain should concentrate on rebuilding its economy and repairing relations with Brussels.

The Liberal Democrats remain the most pro-European party. But even they are focused more on a gradual progression—a return to the Customs Union by the end of this decade and practical moves towards deeper cooperation and integration.

The Conservatives, Reform and the new far-right party Restore, are simply against anything that smacks of improved relations with Brussels.

But what about the Europeans? They opposed Britain leaving, but they do they want Britain back?

In many respects, Britain is quite a catch for the EU, especially as the Ukraine War and the rise of China has forced it to focus increasingly on security issues. Britain has Europe’s largest navy with 450,000 tons under the Union Jack. France is just behind but current UK defense plans will put it well ahead by 2040.

Then there is the fact that Britain is a nuclear power. President Emmanuel Macron has talked about extending the French nuclear umbrella to other European countries. Such pledges would be more effective if they included the British deterrent.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged brexit, european union and featured | 13 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 24th May 2026 - 10:23 am

The Thucydides Trap

There has been much talk recently about the “Thucydides Trap”. China’s President Xi Jinping is reported to have warned Donald Trump during his recent trip to Beijing that China and America were heading straight for the “Thucydides Trap.”

So what is it? It is a term coined by the diplomatic historian Graham Alison in his book “Destined for War.” Allison uses Thucydides’ history of the disastrous Peloponnesian War between Sparta (the established power) and Athens (the rising power) to argue that when one power becomes to challenge the hegemony of an existing power then war is inevitable.

It is not quite. In the 1920s the American military was drawing up plans for a war against Britain. The plan was called War Red. The plan involved a major land invasion across the border into Canada and a naval attack on British colonies in the Caribbean.

Britain had a counter-attack plan, but its plan was not as comprehensive. Fairly early on it realised that its war-ravaged economy could not win a war against the rising American industrial giant. There were other important factors. These included the two countries’ shared experience of World War I. There was also the fact that a 300-year-old shared cultural experience and perspective outweighed the competitive aspects of the relationship. The British increasingly saw themselves as the Greeks to America’s Rome, as Harold Macmillan later put it.

“War Plan Red was one of the rare cases where strategic rivalry did not culminate in war. Alison gives 12 examples of how countries became victims of the Thucydides Trap. They include the Crusades, the Franco-Prussian War, World War One and World War Two. War Red is listed—along with three others—as the exceptions that prove the rule.

Cultural links ensured that War Red did not become a disastrous reality. But China and America lack the deep cultural, linguistic and historical ties that softened the transfer of power from Britain to the United States.

Ebola

Ebola is a terrible disease. It attacks your internal organs. You bleed from the inside out. Death is painful and quick.

In much of Africa it is customary to wash the bodies of corpses before burial. The practice can be fatal as the disease is spread through contact with infected bodily fluids. They remain contagious long after death.

In the last outbreak, 2014-2016, 11,300 people died. The epidemic was contained to West Africa because Britain and America flooded the region with health workers and soldiers. The UK committed more than $500 million to fight the epidemic. America sent 3,000 people to fight the disease.

It worked. The doctors and nurses won. Not only that but systems were put in place to effectively detect and fight any further outbreaks. Then came Trump in America and Boris Johnson in Britain. Aid budgets were slashed. Three thousand staff were cut from America’s Centre for Disease Control. The biggest axe fell on the departments involved in fighting overseas epidemics. The situation was almost as bad in Britain.

The epidemic fighting network that was established a decade ago was badly weakened. Especially hard hit were the surveillance systems which are designed to detect the first signs of the disease, contain it and treat it. Britain has so far committed only $30 million to fighting the latest outbreak. America has made promises but little has materialised. Oxfam says that coordination meetings now produce “blank stares” when money is requested.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged china, donald trump and ebola | 7 Comments

Observations of an expat: Dangerous diplomatic chess

By Tom Arms | Sat 23rd May 2026 - 10:15 am

In the wake of his Beijing sojourn, Donald Trump is embarking on a dangerous and complex game of diplomatic chess with Taiwan as the piece most likely to be sacrificed for the greater American good.

While in China, Trump became convinced what the rest of the world has known for some time. China cannot be bullied. Threats of escalating tariffs and civilisational extinction just roll off the Chinese political back. They have been around a long time and have seen it all.

Next, China is as much of a superpower as the United States. And, if he is going to avoid an Armageddon-like nuclear war, he has to learn to live on the same planet with Beijing instead of baiting and containing it.

Finally, the American president is almost certainly convinced that Xi Jinping is sincere when he says that China wants Taiwan and any American attempt to block a Chinese takeover could easily lead to a Sino-American “clashes and even conflict.”

The three-way dilemma of China-US-Taiwan dates back to before President Nixon’s historic visit to China. It has been resolved with the famous “strategic ambiguity” which was designed to deter war by making the Chinese uncertain about US intervention.

Trump doesn’t do ambiguity. He does transactions. The Taiwan issue presents him with an opportunity to use his much-hyped negotiating skills to pull off one of the great transactions of all time. A tempting prospect which ego would find difficult to resist.

But with whom and how?

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged china and donald trump | 2 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 10th May 2026 - 8:52 am

In a fit of pique Donald Trump announced that he was withdrawing 5,000 troops from Germany. He also said that he was considering pulling soldiers out of Italy and Spain.

Why these three countries? Because their leaders had the temerity to criticise the US president.

Trump is cutting off Uncle Sam’s face to spite his nose while shooting him in the foot. In short, it is a stupid move. America needs Europe. For a start. Europe is the largest financial pillar outside the United States supporting the US defense industry—it spends more than $100 billion a year. And the US defense industry is five percent of America’s GDP.

American bases in Europe also enable the US to project power throughout Eurasia, Africa, the Middle East and the western end of the Indo-Pacific region. It has bases in Britain, Germany, the Baltic countries, Poland, Spain, Italy and even Greenland.

The US bases enable the Pentagon to pre-position equipment and fuel for rapid deployments; provide some of the world’s finest hospitals; repair centres; intelligence; command centres and deployment infrastructure. Europe is the foundational stone that makes global power projection possible.

Trump’s recently published National Security Strategy focused on “civilisational decline” in Europe and the need to focus on the Western Hemisphere. But it also said that Europe would “remain as a platform for US global operations.”

Given the above, it should follow that the US president should learn to be nicer to the people he needs.

Trump is off to China next week. To be exact, he is in Beijing next Thursday and Friday for talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

At the moment the US and China are in the middle of a trade truce. That is because the trade war that Trump launched last April proved disastrous to both countries. Trump raised tariffs to over 100 percent. China immediately cut off America’s access to the rare earth minerals. Trump retaliated by reducing Chinese access to American technology and financial instruments. The result was a Mexican stand-off.

Both sides backed away, lowered tariffs and resumed access to products. But the spate left a bad taste in the mouths of both leaders. They think that Sino-American cooperation will only benefit the other. In fact, the only thing keeping Trump and Xi talking to each other is the fear of the economic damage each can inflict on each other’s country.

This will upset US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who has spent the first part of this year negotiated a set of trade deals which he hopes will be signed in Beijing. According to diplomatic sources, it is more likely that the best result will be a pair of fixed smiles and a handshake.

May should be an interesting diplomatic month for India. It will have to perform a delicate balancing act between the American-dominated West and the Chinese-dominated East and South.

Posted in Europe / International and Op-eds | Tagged tom arms world review | 3 Comments

Observations of an ex-pat: War’s end?

By Tom Arms | Sat 9th May 2026 - 12:17 pm

The Gulf region is on the cusp of peace. That is according to President Donald Trump who issues more lies and obfuscations than my dog Bear barks in any given day.

Having said that, both Axios and Reuters report that there is now a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) which indicates Iranian willingness to discuss suspending uranium enrichment, a partial lifting of US sanctions against Iran and unfreezing of assets and some sort of return to normality in the Strait of Hormuz.

It should be stressed, however, that an MOU is not a peace deal. It is merely an agreement on talking points.

But According to Trump the MOU was enough for him to suspend “Operation Freedom”—a major US naval effort to throw a “red, white and blue protective umbrella” over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Wrong. The real reason for its suspension was the Saudis fear that Iran would fire on the protective convoy. The convoy would fire back. Trump would order renewed missile attacks, and the war would again spread throughout the Gulf.

Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff may be the two Americans meeting with Iranian (and/or Pakistani) officials in Geneva and Islamabad, but behind the scenes America’s junior partners in the Iran War are calling at least some of the shots. These are Israel, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE.

Israel is more like full partner than junior partner. Its Government is certainly the most hawkish. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu played a key role in dragging Trump into the Iran War and according to him is in “almost daily contact” with the president. The Israeli security establishment views Iran as an “existential threat” to Israel. It wants to overthrow the theocratic regime and replace it with a pro-Israeli secular government that will end support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Netanyahu has the support of Israeli public opinion. It is starting to drop, but is still pro-war. At the start of March, 80 percent of Israelis supported the war. This had dropped to 54 percent by the end of April. 61 percent are opposed to the ceasefire.

Another factor in Israeli thinking is that they are totally unaffected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. None of their energy or fertiliser supplies come from the Gulf Region.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged observations of an ex pat | 4 Comments

Sarah Olney bids to become candidate for Mayor of London

Going for four in a row in Scotland

Observations of an Expat: Canada

Happy Birthday to us!

Author Archives: Tom Arms

Saudi Arabia

North Korea

Texas

United States

France

CIA

Mid term elections

West Bank

US water supplies

Donald Trump

Israel

Donald Trump

Iran

NATO

Ukraine

July 4th

NATO

Donald Trump

The atemoya

Iran

Americans and the rest of the world

AI

Donald Trump and the liberal consensus

Cuba

Israel

The Thucydides Trap

Ebola

Subscribe

Most Read

Search

Op-eds

Recent Comments