The tenure of António Guterres as Secretary-Geeneral of the United Nations ends on the last day of this year. His successor will inherit an organisation struggling to maintain its relevance in a world increasingly divided by war, nationalism and great-power rivalry.
Guterres is a former Portuguese prime minister and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, His decade at the helm has been marked by the UN becoming increasingly irrelevant as an instrument for resolving international conflicts.
His critics argue that Guterres has been too cautious, too willing to accommodate power and ineffective in confronting international aggression. It has, in short, become less like the UN of 1947 and more like the League of Nations of the 1930s.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a particularly serious test. As a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia has a veto over its decisions. Guterres struggled to influence Moscow or bring the conflict to an end.
The war in Gaza was anotheer challenge. Guterres has repeatedly condemned attacks on civilians, called for humanitarian access and demanded ceasefires. However, he has been unable to secure a lasting political settlement or prevent the humanitarian catastrophe. His critics argue that his statements have not been matched by sufficient diplomatic influence.
Then there is Sudan. The devastating civil war has continued despite international diplomatic efforts, while competing foreign interests have complicated attempts to secure peace.
It would be unfair to attribute all these failures to Guterres. The Secretary-General does not command an independent military force or possess the authority to overrule sovereign governments. The Security Council, particularly its five permanent members, ultimately determines what action the organisation can take. Guterres has also championed climate change, humanitarian assistance and gender equality, and achieved gender parity in the UN’s senior leadership team.
A big part of Guterres’s problems can be laid at the door of Donald Trump. The US president has repeatedly and loudly made clear his dislike of the UN. The UN represents international law. Trump flouts the law in pursuit of the philosophy of might is right.
Trump has withdrawn the UN from several UN institutions. In September he paid UD $827 million towards the UN budget. But America still owes $1.312 billion. The United Nations relies on contributions from its member states to pay for peacekeeping operations and other activities. Because of the dominance of the US economy, America is assessed at 22 percent of the UN’s budget. Trump’s failure to pay America’s fair share has brought the organisations to the brink of financial and political collapse and left Guterres’s successor with a major headache.
There is also the question of institutional reform. The Security Council still reflects the balance of power that existed at the end of the Second World War. Its five permanent members – the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France – enjoy veto powers denied to the other ten members.
Countries such as India, Brazil, Japan and Germany argue that the Council should be expanded to reflect today’s economic and political realities. African countries also want permanent representation. However, agreement on reform remains elusive because the existing permanent members are reluctant to surrender their privileges.
So, who is likely to succeed to what has increasingly become a diplomatic poison chalice. As of this week, eight candidates remain in the running. Five are women, raising the possibility that the UN could appoint its first female Secretary-General since its foundation in 1945.