Category Archives: Op-eds

The law has never told you which door to use

The EHRC’s Code of Practice for services came into force this week. Single-sex services are now offered on the basis of biological sex, and providers may ask a person to confirm theirs. 167 MPs signed Nadia Whittome’s motion to disapprove it, the majority of Liberal Democrat MPs among them. It was never debated.

One fact has been almost entirely absent from the argument, and it changes the shape of it.

The law has regulated lavatories and changing rooms since the 1890s. Every one of those provisions regulates what must be provided. Not one regulates who may

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Lincolnshire – a flawed reform of local government and why it matters

In the excitement of appointing a new Prime Minister, the Manchester Mayoral election, and Count Binface’s adventures in Clacton, the government’s proposals for local government reform in England have been overlooked by the media. This is a pity, as the implications of the changes will stay with us for a long time. How local government is organized affects how efficiently services are delivered to residents, and what they cost. Mathew Hulbert pointed out eloquently in LDV a fortnight ago that the government’s proposed changes are not a technical administrative reform, but a profound political change.

The motive behind current government policy is to replace two-tier local government with unitary councils. Fair enough, fashions change. The process started when Angela Rayner was Minister. She aimed for unitaries with a population of around 500,000. When Steve Reed took over, he favoured smaller councils. What neither of them favoured, unfortunately, was an impartial, evidence-led way of deciding what council boundaries should be. This has led to political manipulation almost to the extent of gerrymandering, and proposals for councils with no roots in community. Local councils with absurd boundaries have caused political ructions in many counties. One of the craziest examples is in Lincolnshire.

There are two obvious ways of establishing unitary authorities in the area. One is to have a unitary Lincolnshire County Council based on the present authority. This would have a population around the size Angela Rayner originally wanted for unitaries. The other is to return to the pre-1974 pattern of three unitary councils based on the historic “Parts” of the county: Lindsey, Kesteven, and Holland, with a separate council for the city of Lincoln. That would provide more compact unitaries, of the size Steve Reed seemed to favour.

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Welcome to my day: 3 August 2026 – some thoughts on migration…

I read the piece by Oliver Jacques earlier this week with some interest. As a second-generation migrant myself, you might not be surprised to find that my views on migration are relatively liberal. I tend to the view that migration can be a good thing, which in turn tends to put me amongst that group that right-wing campaigners describe mockingly as “open door liberals”.

But migration is like free markets, in that nobody really believes in an unfettered free market in the same way that nobody really believes in open borders – there have to be rules and limits. Indeed, even that small minority who claim to believe in unfettered free markets or open borders, when pushed, have caveats.

My family story is no different to many others, an exodus from the homeland in search of a better future. They were not persecuted in the sense of being threatened, and they played by the rules of the countries that they applied to. Points systems were navigated, choices made based on probabilities and opportunities.

For most non-imperial countries, that was a straightforward choice as to what migrants they wanted, and in what numbers. It is a bit more challenging for those countries who had empires, because of the flows of population from their colonies, but the principle is generally the same. Economic migrants tend to follow the opportunities – why go to a country with high unemployment or low wages?

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Donald Trump

Trump loves a winner. He is less keen on anyone blocking his objectives.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used to be the former and is now the latter. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky used to the be latter and is now the former.

This was apparent to anyone watching the visits to Washington this week of Zelensky and Netanyahu. Zelensky and Trump were all smiles. Zelensky described the talks as “a good meeting” and the White House used the term “cordial.”  The bilateral summit was in stark contract to the February 2025 Oval Office showdown when Trump and Vice President Vance set out to publicly humiliate the Ukrainian leader.

Part of the explanation is simple: In February 2025, Ukraine was on the defensive, if not losing. By the summer of 2026 it had regained the initiative and for the first time in many months, was looking capable of improving its position, if not winning the war outright.

Netanyahu, on the other hand, won no favours when he refused to endorse Trump’s latest plans for Gaza. Trump ignored him and announced that Hamas had agreed to disarm. The Israeli leader also hurt his cause by having what were described as “frank discussions” in a private meeting with Vance – diplomatic shorthand for almighty row.

There is also the fact that Netanyahu is widely reported as having persuaded Trump to join him in an attack on Iran. It would be over quickly, he assured the president. It isn’t and Trump, America and rest of the world are suffering because of it.

The changing mood is reflected in Congress.  Support for Ukraine has become broader and more enthusiastic. Israel still commands considerable backing, but Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran has created fissures in its previously rock-solid bipartisan support.

Israel

Israeli West Bank settlers don’t have much time. There is a good chance that the complexion of the government  may change after elections on October 27 and the orthodox parties that back their West Bank land grab will be out.

So, they are seizing more territory and provoking more confrontations with Palestinian residents, calculating that this will lead the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) to deploy more troops to the area and facilitate more land grabs. “We are definitely initiating friction and we’re proud of this,” Elisha Yered, an outspoken settler leader, said in a recent interview.

The IDF claims to be enforcing order. But it has overseen a steep rise in violence against Palestinians. In the first six months of 2026 there were 660 “nationalistic” attacks in the West Bank, up from 405 in the previous six months, according to the Shin Bet, Israel’s security agency.

In some cases, soldiers have tried to restrain settlers, who have responded with violence. But in many more cases soldiers, either acting on their own initiative or as part of organised units, have been seen taking part in attacks against Palestinians or protecting settlers carrying them out.

The IDF has set up protective cordons around new settlements and built roads to dozens of them. In many cases the work destroyed swathes of orchards and vineyards owned by Palestinians.

The surge in violence seems likely to reap more violence. For the past three years, the war in Gaza has occupied Palestinian militants. But events in the West Bank have made an armed backlash or a more widespread Palestinian uprising there a distinct possibility.

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Observations of an Expat: Gaza Sceptic

Pardon my scepticism, but I do not think Trump’s recent announcement about Hamas’s disarmament is the diplomatic breakthrough that some commentators are claiming.

For a start, there is Trump’s well-known tendency to jump the diplomatic starting line before the starter has entered the stadium. It is a tendency that has scuppered several delicate diplomatic negotiations.

Usually, Trump’s over-egged statements are designed to deflect from his failings elsewhere. Success in Gaza shifts focus away from the Iran War, confirmation hearings and the rising price of petrol. Or he may be trying to push either Hamas or Israel into a deal.

In this respect, it is important to note that neither Qatar nor Egypt—key members of the negotiating team—have said anything about Hamas, disarmament or Trump’s announcement.

Next, there is Hamas’s statement on the issue which is not that different from its previous statements. Yes, we will disarm as stipulated in phase two of the ceasefire agreement, when and if Israel fulfils its obligations under phase one of the agreement.

Those obligations were to withdraw Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) so that they occupied 53 percent of Gaza. Under phase two it would be reduced to 40 percent and phase three would leave the IDF in control of a 15 percent security perimeter which would eventually disappear.

At the  moment, the IDF controls nearly 70 percent of Gaza. It has built defensive bunkers, established communications systems and knocked down buildings to improve firing sight lines. Army engineers do not build permanent fortifications if they are planning to leave in a few weeks.

Phase one also called on Israel to allow the resumption of humanitarian aid to at least pre-war levels. Before the war there were 700-730 trucks laden with humanitarian aid trundling past Israeli-controlled checkpoints into Gaza. Today there are just over 500. This at a time when the need is far greater with hundreds of thousands of displaced persons living in beachfront tents and receiving all their meals from communal kitchens.

Finally, the ceasefire agreement explicitly said that all fighting would stop immediately. Since the agreement was signed 1,168 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza health officials. In the same period, according to the IDF, four Israeli soldiers died.

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The Social Liberal Forum, a strategy for relevant liberalism

I think we can agree that public confidence in our political system is at an all-time low. It comes to a pretty pass when Count Binface is considered to be a best alternative to a national party leader in a by-election, or that the party of government feels the need, mid parliament, to regularly change its leader (and our PM) supposedly for the benefit of all.

This sorry state of affairs has been growing, across the spectrum, for a long time of course as the desire of politicians to win replaced a desire to serve. Essentially its roots emanate from the Tory party as Thatcher moved our politics economically to a system built on free market deregulation and personal advantage. The result, after 40 mismanaged years, is a divided, fractured, unequal, angry society ripe for the populists to trigger. Where the targeting of a sleeping non-voter base has the capacity to change the political landscape entirely, from Brexit to the rise of the rabid-right.  Its little surprise then that after two wasted years from Labour, and the continuing Lib Dem obsession with winning based on quantity of activity rather than relevance of message that we are where we are. Strong in a core heartland, largely invisible everywhere else.

For the Social Liberal Forum, our approach up until now, has been to act as a platform for discussion and advocacy of Socially Liberal values. With events, fringe meetings and publications we have looked at economics, we have discussed the role of liberalism in a divided society, and some of our members have worked tirelessly to challenge and improve party policy. The aim of this being to encourage the party to adopt a more socially liberal stance.

We will always be campaigners, but being able to change lives at scale requires electoral success, without it it’s a slow and frustrating plod. But, with our effectiveness so localised and party strategy centred on weight of leaflets delivered, rather than a moral passion for a relevant national message across the country all that’s left for us to offer is a national party of independents in the guise of ‘Local Champions’.

The big question then is, if we really do see ourselves as a true national liberal party, has to be the creation of a ‘Clear Liberal Objective’. What is the Lib Dem Vision for the society we seek to create?  That when you vote Lib Dem you do so because our vision and moral passion inspires your support. We must be so much more than, ‘not the other party’! Why have we remained a substantially feudal society centred on perceptions of class and the desire for assets. Where is the vital importance of community and mutual support. Where is equality, freedom and community.

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We need to send a message “We hear you” on illegal immigration

What is immigration? Immigration into the UK falls broadly into three categories; legal (authorised), humanitarian and illegal (irregular).

Legal immigration is supported by many well-known routes such as work, student and family visas, business investment schemes and special temporary schemes such as the Ukraine scheme.

Humanitarian immigration follows a long history of welcoming people fleeing persecution and conflict, into this country. Proud to help those who need it find sanctuary here while also honouring obligations under international law.

Support for humanitarian immigration aligns closely with our own LibDem beliefs in compassion, internationalism and the rule of law. We also believe Britain is stronger and richer when it is open to the talents and creativity of people from other countries.

Indeed, many Conservatives and, dare I say, some Reform supporters, welcome people arriving in this country on legal or humanitarian routes.

Where we differ sharply however, is in our public messaging and policy position surrounding the third category; irregular immigration.

There are many examples where right-wing populists in Reform lazily conflate all types on immigration in their rhetoric, using terms such as “mass immigration”, “millions coming into Britain” and “invasion”. To do so suits their divisive narrative, as it did throughout the Brexit campaign.

In addition, I believe that there are those on the political left, and possibly in our party, who conversely promote the belief that all who come to our shores, legally or otherwise, should be accepted and treated the same.

Both conflations are wrong.

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Why Andy Burnham would be foolish to turn his back on London

The much-vaunted “Manchesterism” of our new Prime Minister is starting to take its national shape, with his early policy pledges and the appointment of his Cabinet. It’s a relentless focus on the cost of living – cuts to VAT on energy bills and a £2 cap on bus fares – paired with a jaunty wardrobe and a flair for social media. Burnham wants the public to see him as somehow more ‘real’ and more ‘in touch’ than his aloof predecessor.

But Burnham’s diagnosis of the ills of the nation – and the action needed to address them – amounts to a great deal more than just improving how the government communicates. His early statements include some fairly significant repudiations of not just the outgoing Starmer administration, but a great many of its predecessors. He specifically talks about the “wrong turn” of the 1980s.

His statements point to a very particular view of history – that the deindustrialisation of the 1980s, together with the centralisation of political power, undermined working class communities to such an extent that they have not recovered. The Burnham protocol references ‘reindustrialisation’ and ‘devolution’ as the answer for these communities. It’s a strikingly retrogressive view. Our pop culture Prime Minister would probably enjoy a Doctor Who comparison – he’s a Time Lord, travelling back to the 1980s to right a historic wrong and save the country from the Evil Neoliberals! – but being compared to a sci-fi fantasy isn’t perhaps as complimentary about Burnham as he would like.

But it is also a statement about geography. The implication is that the Cities of London and Westminster have jointly wreaked this damage on the rest of the country – specifically northern cities and towns – and that it is time for a reversal. I’m not the only Londoner who worries about what the Burnham view of the British economy and society mean for our city.

I know that many LDV readers will struggle to find much sympathy for privileged metropolitan snowflakes, weepingly forgoing their matcha lattes and gochujang popcorn to help fund a £2 bus fare cap that Londoners won’t even benefit from (because our bus fares are already only £1.75!). Many will share the Burnham diagnosis of the impact of Thatcherism on the UK’s social fabric and every good Liberal Democrat will welcome the warm words about devolution. As the party’s Business spokesperson, I’m enthusiastic about the prospect of growing our manufacturing base, especially for the career opportunities it would offer to our young people. Although we also need to see much more support for small and high street businesses, with policies that will boost employment, such as reversing the Employers’ NI increases, introduced by the now ex-Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

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From Britain’s Mandate to Gaza’s Board of Peace: when others decide Palestine’s future, Palestinians pay the price

The failure of the Gaza peace process reflects a recurring problem in the international approach to Palestine: powerful actors repeatedly claim the authority to shape Palestinians’ future, make sweeping yet undeliverable promises… and when those promises fail to materialise, Palestinians face the consequences.

In January, President Trump’s son-in law Jared Kushner unveiled an ambitious plan for a “New Gaza” filled with gleaming high-rise towers, a revitalised coastline and tourist-packed beaches. Six months later, no meaningful reconstruction has taken place, and hundreds of thousands of Palestinians continue to live in cramped, unsanitary tents that have become breeding grounds for disease and rodent infestations.

Earlier this month, it was quietly announced that the scope of reconstruction plans has been dramatically reduced to a small pilot project in southern Gaza. The contrast between the scale of the original promises and what has actually been delivered could hardly be greater, despite the centrality of this project to the ceasefire deal.

There has been little acknowledgement of this from Trump and his cronies, who despite being quick to present themselves as the architects of Gaza’s reconstruction have shown little interest in overseeing its implementation.

This lack of accountability is hardly surprising given the composition of the ‘Board of Peace’ (BoP) tasked with overseeing Gaza’s future. The board includes external figures with powerful business interests, some with known pro-Israel sympathies, but excludes Palestinians.

The US-backed BoP rightly criticises Hamas when it fails to abide by the agreement, but then fails completely to use its considerable influence to prevent Israeli violations. Israel continues to kill civilians on an almost daily basis. It continues to obstruct the entry of aid, reconstruction materials and even the Palestinian technocrats assigned to administer Gaza. And despite agreeing to gradually withdraw from the territory, the Israeli army has steadily entrenched its presence, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announcing in May that he had ordered the army to seize 70% of the strip.

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Let’s fix social care

Andy Burnham has rightly made fixing social care a top priority and seems, on the face of it, to be genuinely interested in reaching a cross party consensus. Social care has been a priority for Liberal Democrats for a long time as well – I shed more than one or two tears when I first saw some of our election broadcasts from Ed Davey talking about his experiences.

The good news is that we don’t need to wait for the Casey Review to conclude in several years – the answers are already out there. In 2019, the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee published a landmark report calling for £8bn investment in social care, followed by the introduction of free personal care in England. The committee at the time was chaired by the very right-wing Lord Forsyth – this is not a lefty fringe idea, but one that makes practical sense.

It was wisely adopted as our party’s policy in 2023 and a major plank of our manifesto in 2024.

Of course, post-Covid and an ever aging population would mean you need more than £8bn today – some estimates as much as £18bn for transformative social care by 2036.

Frankly, Liberal Democrats need to be a bit less squeamish about asking people to pay more tax. Real substantial taxes rather than fiddling with the Digital Services Tax which is paying for seemingly everything (incidentally widening its base to cover more products like user data sales and streaming services as France and Denmark do or expanding it to AI companies would generate substantially more revenue than upping the headline rate).

The main beneficiaries of making personal care free are people like my family – a fair amount of wealth and assets (a 3 bed detached house in Berkshire and investments) but not necessarily cash rich. The fairest solution is to look at taxing wealth more, rather than working people during a cost of living crisis, so the main beneficiaries are the main contributors. Equalising Capital Gains Tax with Income Tax, and removing some of the egregious loopholes would raise upwards of £11.3bn a year as well as removing distortions which would promote economic growth. It is also backed by the IFS.

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It is not just about paying for social care

Thirty years after the then Government established the “Royal Commission on Long Term Care”, five years after the 2021 Health and Social Care Act was to sort out social care once and for all, social care is still in crisis and, at long last. moving up the agenda of Government.

The NHS and social care need radical reform, restructuring and cultural change based upon a whole systems approach to liberate the hardworking professionals from the constraining contract culture into an enabling leadership one. Taking out functional divisions along patient / user pathways to create “whole task, right sized, multidisciplinary, inter-agency teams” aligned behind outcome, These teams need to be able to “plan do and evaluate* their own work which completes the learning cycle of constant improvement.

A survey by The Times found there were on average 13,600 people a day in hospital awaiting social care. To enter long term residential care is one of the few irreversible decisions in life and is not to be taken lightly or without an assessment of need and verification of wishes. And there are many more older people not receiving the help they need in the community.

Social care needs to move from a “minding” to a “mending” service. Social Work is under-valued and social workers misused.

Given the wealth of empirical evidence into the social determinants of health which has demonstrated the correlation between low income and health unless Government addresses the widening income inequality and increasing poverty in our society the NHS will not keep pace with demand and will always be playing catch up. Governments cannot go on throwing more money at the first aid camp at the bottom of the cliff without building a fence at the top. Treating the symptoms not the cause.

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Hidden meanings in social care

Andy Burnham has promised to ‘fix’ social care and to ‘use some of his political capital on the issue’. The first steps are expected this week. Ed Davey, who has campaigned strongly on the issue, promises to work with him on a cross-party basis.

All good. The problem is that people mean very different things by the ‘social care’ problem.

The obvious priority is to help unpaid carers – around 6 million people, 1.7 million of whom provide care for over 50 hours a week – and those they care for at home. There are rather meagre carers’ benefits but, for the most part, carers make a financial as well as emotional sacrifice – while keeping their loved ones out of hospital and as part of the local community.

There is potential help in the form of local authority domiciliary care but the service has to be paid for since social care -unlike NHS health care – is not free, but means-tested for those with assets over £23,000 (and very expensive for -say- a live-in carer costing up to £50,000 a year). Moreover, the domiciliary care service is severely over-stretched and highly dependent on low paid, immigrant, care workers.

If funding were available it could be used to relax the eligibility criteria which keep around 2 million, mainly elderly people, from receiving the social care they need; or to improve the quality of service. Based on the Scottish model (where social care is free) the cost of a fully funded care service could be around £8 billion. That is a minimum.

But others are clamouring for ‘social care’ funding for a different reason. Many relatives with frail relatives, especially those suffering from dementia, choose not to assume caring responsibilities but to put them in a care home. Good care homes are expensive: upwards of £60,000 a year even without nursing care. Some residents are being forced to sell their family home to pay costs. Disgruntled relatives can see their inheritance disappearing in care home costs.

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What should the Liberal Democrats say about compulsory voting?

Last week, Andy Burnham became Labour leader and thus Prime Minister. Labour hope that his leadership will reverse the party’s political misfortunes and poor polling under Keir Starmer, while many hope that his new policy priorities and governing style would bring about vital change. Electoral reform advocates hope that such change will include Proportional Representation, given his past and recent vocal support for it and the proposal of an amendment to the Representation of the People Bill calling for a National Commission on Electoral Reform. However, the latest speculated change, as reported by several outcomes, may come in the form of compulsory voting.

Compulsory voting, otherwise known as universal civic duty or mandatory voting, is the requirement that all registered voters must participate in elections. At present, twenty-one countries have compulsory laws, from free multiparty democracies such as Australia to the one-party dictatorship of North Korea. It may or may not be enforced, with potential penalties (outside the DPRK) including fines, loss of the right to vote, the denial of licenses or passports, or nothing. Registered voters may be exempted because of age, illiteracy, illness, disability, religious objection, occupation, housing status or force majeure (circumstances beyond personal control).

The proposed introduction of compulsory voting under Burnham is disconcerting due to the actions of past Labour Prime Ministers, notably Tony Blair and Starmer himself. They endorsed PR while in opposition, whether during their leadership campaigns or as part of their party’s policy platform. However, once they got into power with huge majorities granted to them by First Past the Post, they either failed to deliver on it citing other priorities or launched make-work activity such as the Jenkins Commission to give the impression that change was coming.

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Standing up to the far right

On Saturday 25 July, I attended the counter-protest at Glasgow Green in response to the so-called “Unite the Clans” demonstration. I did so because I believe Scotland is at its strongest when we stand together against hatred, division and extremism. Our country has a proud tradition of welcoming people from different backgrounds, cultures and faiths, and those values must be defended peacefully and democratically.

During the event, there were several reports of threats being made towards those intending to attend the counter-protest. Such intimidation has no place in a democratic society. Every person has the right to express their views without fear of threats or harassment, peacefully. Attempts to silence communities through intimidation only reinforce why it is so important for decent people to stand together in solidarity.

What I witnessed at Glasgow Green was both concerning and inspiring. It was concerning because some individuals associated with the far-right gathering were seen making gestures widely recognised as Nazi salutes. These symbols and actions represent one of the darkest chapters in human history and have absolutely no place in modern Scotland. They are an insult to the millions of people who suffered under Nazi persecution and to everyone who believes in democracy, equality and human dignity.

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Council houses – a dream come true?

The Government’s intention to have the biggest Council House building programme since the 1940s and 50s will give immediate hope to the 134,210 homeless households, including 176,130 children, living in temporary accommodation and the 4,793 people sleeping rough. And as the “right to buy scheme” still, at the time of writing, applied in England (but not in Scotland or Wales) could get them on the housing ladder. …Although former Council Houses have been notoriously difficult to sell.

The programme will create work for some of the 1.01 million young people between the ages of 16 and 24 who are not in education or training, thereby also boosting the economy. It will divert public funds through Housing Benefit from unscrupulous landlords with houses of multiple occupation to Local Authorities at reduced cost. Therefore, economically it is a win win.

Although very much needed, is it a medium-term quick fix which could perpetuate the stigma and labelling associated with Council Houses? In recent times so called social housing (a dreadful term) has been included within new developments in search of integration but this has still attracted similar stigma and labelling.

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Mathew on Monday – Andy Burnham must act on Social Care now

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is right about one thing: social care reform demands serious thought. But she is wrong to insist that the answer cannot involve asking those with the broadest shoulders (the very richest) bear the biggest burden and contribute a bit more through taxation. If we are serious about fixing one of Britain’s greatest public policy failures, there will be a cost. We must be honest about that.

For me, this is not an abstract political argument. It is deeply personal.

In July 2022 my mum died two days after waiting eleven hours for an ambulance following a bad fall …

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Welcome to my day: 27 July 2026 – and let the silly season begin…

Parliament is now fully in recess until September – the House of Lords sat for an additional week – and now there’s not much “politician on politician action” for five weeks, leaving the field open for commentators and journalists to speculate on what might come next. And, given that the line between reporting and comment is now so blurred, it becomes increasingly hard to separate the two.

Now I’m not the sort of person who tends to don rose-tinted spectacles and opine about how much better things were in the past – improvement is very much in the eye of the beholder – but one thing that the rise of twenty-four hour rolling media and the democratisation of comment has spawned is an increasing sense that, if nothing is actually happening, something – anything – has to be said for fear of risking loss of public attention.

Add to that, an increasing polarisation of the mainstream media, and you end up with a series of increasingly ludicrous headlines designed to scare the British public, and its politicians, in particular policy directions. Does Andy Burnham intend to raise taxes by £96 billion, as I saw on the front page of one national newspaper? And if he does, over what period? Over one year, it might be perceived to be alarming. Over a decade, not so.

But new ministers will be familiarising themselves with their new departments, civil servants will be briefing on priorities, emerging issues and upcoming legislative agendas, and a new Prime Minister will be attempting to draw up a list of quick wins to announce when Parliament resumes.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Donald Trump

Donald Trump has discovered the virtues of fighting forced labour—provided he does not look too closely at America’s record.

This week he slapped tariffs of 10-12.5 percent on 60 countries—including the UK—because they imported goods from countries that used forced or abusive labour.

Well, so does the United States. In fact, several of its home-grown companies have, in fact, been prosecuted for using forced labour. And this is according to reports from America’s State Department, the Department of Justice and the Department of Labour.

But first the issue of importation. Trump is on reasonably firm ground using the issue of abusive labour practices to try replacing his first illegal round of tariffs with a fresh batch. Since 1930, there has been a law prohibiting the importation of goods produced by abusive labour practices.

However, that law is almost impossible to enforce. If it was it would result in a wide ban on Chinese goods. America’s chocolate manufacturers would be unable to import the cocoa from Ghana and the Ivory Coast that it needs to satisfy millions of sweet tooth Americans. There would be virtually no rubber or palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia nor sugar from the Dominican Republic. And the above list is only a small sample of the affected products.

The fact is that today’s world of complicated supply chains involving multiple countries makes it virtually impossible to identify products that involve forced labour.

But on to the United States where employers exploit the legal vulnerability of undocumented workers to indulge in abusive labour practices in agriculture, hospitality, construction and domestic service. Every year the Department of Labour and the Justice Department prosecute numerous cases involving migrants. American employers use their illegal status to hold them in debt bondages, confiscate their passports, threaten them with deportation and force them to work up to 17 hours a day.

Not all the offences involve immigrants. The DOJ reports rising incidences of child labour, particularly in meat processing plants. One of the recent high-profile cases involved more than 100 children working overnight to clean dangerous meat processing equipment. The company was fined $1.5 million.

Perhaps  the most controversial labour abuse involves American prisons. The Thirteenth Amendment abolished slavery “accept as a punishment for crime.” Many American prisons are managed by private companies who use the prisoners to secure production contracts for which the prisoners are paid miniscule wages or nothing.

When it comes to labour abuses, the United States is living in a glass house, and President Trump has just thrown a set of bricks through several panes.

Iran

Trump’s Iran War may yet claim another strategic victim—nuclear non-proliferation in the Middle East.

For decades it has been an unshakable tenet of US—nay, Western—foreign policy that everything possible should be done to prevent the spread of nuclear technology in the strategically vital but highly unstable Middle East.

Israel was the exception. It is believed to have an estimated 60 nuclear weapons. They have served their purpose in deterring an Arab state attack since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. And besides, there was little that the US could do to prevent Israel from acquiring the bomb.

Nuclear non-proliferation in the region is the stated main purpose of America’s current war with Iran. And Trump’s apparent failure to stop the Iranians must be behind this week’s announcement that Washington will help Saudi Arabia develop a nuclear industry.

The Saudis’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has made it clear on several occasions that if Iran develops a nuclear weapon than Saudi Arabia must also have one to protect itself from attack from its age-old on the opposite shore of the Persian Gulf.

The Washington announcement said that the provision of the technology would be accompanied by regular visits from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ensure that the Saudis are not using the expertise to develop a weapon. But then, the IAEA also conducted regular checks on the Iranians.

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AI at the crossroads: two stories, one warning

This month gave us two AI stories that, read side by side, tell us something important about where we are and how little time, we must decide what to do about it.

The first is unsettling in a very specific way. OpenAI admitted that during an internal test, it removed the safety controls on its own models to see how capable they really were at hacking. The models didn’t stay in their sandbox. They found a flaw, broke out, and used it to hack into a rival company’s servers, Hugging Face, to steal the answers to the very test they were being given. Over 17,000 separate attack attempts followed in a short window. Nobody told the AI to do this. It worked out how to cheat, and then it did.

The second is unsettling in a different way. China’s Moonshot AI released Kimi K3, a huge, freely available model that now ranks among the best in the world, beating several major US systems on coding tasks, at a fraction of the usual cost, and openly published for anyone to build on.

It is the clearest sign yet that the AI race is no longer America’s to run alone, and that the most capable tools may soon be the cheapest and easiest to access, wherever they come from.

Neither story is really about robots taking over. Both are about control. Who has it, who’s giving it away, and who’s racing so fast they’ve stopped asking the question at all.

So, are we at a precipice, or an intersection? We think it’s still an intersection. Nothing here is inevitable. But the room to choose our path is shrinking fast. When one company removes its own safety brakes to win a benchmark, and a nation releases a free, powerful model to win a market, the incentive on all sides is to move faster, not more carefully and that is exactly the moment political parties should be paying closest attention, not after the damage is done.

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Observations of an Expat: The American Vote

There are growing signs that Donald Trump is preparing the ground for a challenge to close congressional election results in the mid-terms. Several election law experts have warned about Republican shenanigans.

Scenarios range from the  highly unlikely declaration of martial law and seizure of ballot boxes to attempts to delay certification of Democrat winners. The second possibility is regarded by most legal experts as the most likely and would be designed to influence the organisation of the House in the key early days of the next Congress.

The Republicans don’t need to challenge all the races. Only the ones where the Democrats win. The Republicans will be unchallenged—at least by Trump. And it won’t be in every seat won by the Democrat. It will be in the close races and in the districts and states where there are large immigrant communities or where there are a sizable of mail-in or absentee ballots. Trump doesn’t like those.

There are several ways that an election can be challenged. For a start, there is the recount. In some states if the difference between the two leading candidates is below a certain number than a recount is automatically called. But a losing candidate has the right to ask for a recount, especially if they believe there are irregularities in the mail-in and absentee ballots.

Recounts can be dealt with quickly. Not so easily to deal with are claims of ineligible voters or machine failures. These can take weeks of careful examination of each ballot paper.

Each state is different in how it handles elections. But in each state questions about machine failures, mail-in and absentee ballots and ineligible voters requires the losing candidate to file a lawsuit raising specific legal claims and seeking an injunction delaying certification of the election results. It is the delay that could be important.

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Burnham has left a gap on tax. We should run through it.

In his first interview as Labour’s presumptive Prime Minister, Andy Burnham told the Sunday Times that one issue kept coming up on the doorstep in Makerfield: the frozen £12,570 personal allowance. He called it a growing issue. Within days of walking into Downing Street he had told the Financial Times there was no commitment to do anything about it.

That is a let down for anyone earning near the threshold. It is also a gap in the defence, and we should run through it.

He raised the subject, then walked away from it

Politicians do not usually hand their opponents a grievance. Burnham did. He spent months telling voters that the freeze was unfair, that it was dragging people who are not well off into paying tax they should never have paid, and that Westminster was not listening. He was right. Westminster was not listening. Unfortunately, having become the boss himself, he has proved that it still is not.

What he offered instead was an £850 million package taking VAT off household electricity. It is worth about £45 off a typical annual bill, and rather more than that if you are wealthy enough to own a large house and use a lot of power. It is planned for this financial year only. And because the saving rises with the amount you use, it gives nobody any reason at all to take less from the grid. Alongside it came a cut in the bus fare cap to £2 and a month of free travel for under 15s.

Cheaper buses are good. Lower bills are good for households, even if they are not necessarily good for the environment. But set it against the freeze, which now runs to April 2031, and the sums do not work. Our own figures show 1.9 million more people being dragged into the higher rate between 2025 and 2030. Victoria Collins has costed the wider threshold freeze at £67 billion a year for ten million taxpayers by the end of the decade. Against that, £45 for one winter is a press release, not a plan.

Voters are perfectly capable of doing that arithmetic. They will do it in October when the bills arrive.

The policy is already ours

Here is the part we keep forgetting. We do not need to invent anything. What we need to do is stop saying five words: “when the public finances allow”.

That caveat kills the policy. It turns a principle into a wish. No number, no date, and no answer to the only question anyone ever asks.

Because the policy itself is strong. Raising the personal allowance is the single most successful thing we did in government. Between 2010 and 2015 we lifted more than three million people out of income tax altogether. Not by means testing. Not by a scheme people had to apply for. Just by letting people keep more of what they earned before the state took any of it.

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Should the Liberal Democrats support “None of the Above”?

‘Idiot’ or assorted synonyms for ‘stupid’ have been used to criticise those who do not vote. ‘Idiot’ itself is derived from the Greek ‘ἰδιώτης’ referring to anything personal or ‘private’ individuals who were not political officeholders or professionals, being retroactively applied to those who forwent public engagement in Athenian democracy. In this sense, the first ‘non-voters’ were considered ‘idiots’. However, in our current political climate, we must question this assertion.

We are living in a time where faith in democracy and trust in institutions is at record lows, manifesting itself in low voter turnout and increased support for populist disruptor parties like Reform UK. The current First Past the Post system does not respond to voters’ needs, struggling to prop up a two-party system as voters are no longer convinced to support either major party at the very least to keep the other out or that it ensures stability. There are also the day-to-day struggles that many members of the public must contend with such as insecure employment and the cost-of-living. If ‘vote Liberal Democrat’ is not a convincing enough argument, is it unreasonable to not vote under these circumstances?

The Liberal Democrats believe that reforms such as Proportional Representation and better civics education can help to ameliorate such ill feeling and improve engagement by making our politics more representative and responsive. However, would these fully resolve the harm done by our confrontational political culture? Should voters be prevented from participating in elections if they believe that none of the options available appeal to them?

None of the Above (NOTA) is used in fifteen confirmed democratic nations as well as the US state of Nevada. This comes in different varieties, differing in how they operate and what effect they have. NOTA can be an explicit option on ballots papers or may be registered when voters submit unfilled ballots (often called ‘blank votes’).

Under majoritarian voting systems, where there can only be one winner, NOTA can effectively be treated as a participant, having a chance to ‘win’ on the same terms as an actual candidate were it to achieve a majority or winning plurality. In such an eventuality, a victory for NOTA could result in a seat remaining vacant for a term, being filled by appointment or lottery, or recontested in a new election potentially with different candidates. However, as in India and Nevada, NOTA can have no substantive impact with the highest polling candidate being elected regardless albeit with a noticeable question mark over their mandate.

Our party could support NOTA as a feature of FPTP if it were to have a significant impact like instigating a do-over election. With voter apathy surpassing the winning margins of candidates in 611 out of 650 seats in 2024, NOTA could accommodate alienated voters while demonstrating the follies of FPTP. Although, with momentum gathering behind the campaign for electoral reform, this form of NOTA could be co-opted to retain FPTP and stymie beneficial change.

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Extending the school day: A catalyst for economic growth

Extending the school day represents far more than an educational reform; it constitutes a strategic economic investment capable of substantially increasing national productivity. In modern economies, where dual-income households have become the norm rather than the exception, the traditional school timetable – often ending between 3:00 and 3:30 p.m. – is increasingly incongruent with standard working hours. This temporal mismatch imposes significant constraints upon parents, particularly mothers, who disproportionately bear responsibility for childcare. Consequently, extending the school day would not merely improve educational opportunities for pupils but would also liberate human capital currently underutilised due to caregiving obligations. By enabling both parents to participate more fully in the labour market, particularly by facilitating women’s career progression, governments could stimulate economic growth through increased employment, higher productivity, greater tax revenues, and a more efficient allocation of talent.

One of the most significant economic advantages of a longer school day is its capacity to increase labour force participation among parents. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), countries with accessible and reliable childcare consistently demonstrate higher rates of female employment than those where childcare provision is limited. The conventional school schedule often compels parents to reduce working hours, reject promotions, or withdraw entirely from employment because their children’s educational timetable does not align with the standard working day. Extending school hours would alleviate this structural impediment by providing supervised, educationally enriching environments for children throughout the working day. As a result, parents would gain the flexibility necessary to pursue full-time employment, thereby increasing the overall supply of labour available to the economy.

This benefit is particularly pronounced for women, who continue to undertake a disproportionate share of unpaid domestic and childcare responsibilities. The International Labour Organisation estimates that women perform approximately three times more unpaid care work than men globally. This unequal distribution of responsibilities contributes significantly to lower female labour market participation, and the persistent gender pay gap. Economists frequently refer to this phenomenon as the “motherhood penalty,” whereby women’s earnings and career progression stagnate following childbirth due to interrupted employment and reduced working hours. By extending the school day, governments would effectively reduce one of the principal structural barriers preventing women from pursuing continuous, full-time careers. Rather than forcing mothers into part-time employment or career interruptions, a longer school day would allow them to remain economically active during critical years of professional development.

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An open letter to Andy Burnham

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Dear Andy,

Like you, I’m an advocate of taxing differently, so as to stimulate economic growth in a fair and sustainable way. We shouldn’t be taxing workers and businesses more.

Every Lib Dem Conference I’m there with colleagues promoting “Action on Land-value Tax and Economic Reform (ALTER ).

Along with the late Dave Wetzel, chair of Labour Land Campaign, ALTER helped found the Coalition for Economic Justice (CEJ ) in 2004. CEJ was Secretariat to the APPG on Land Value Capture , chaired by Vince Cable from 2017 and then by John McDonnell.

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Four challenges in Andy Burnham’s in-tray

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We have a new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, who has successfully pulled off a bloodless coup more akin to the Glorious than the French Revolution. However, now he is in office, he cannot escape the reality of four core issues that he will need to fearlessly take on if he is going to get economic growth going again.

Bringing Investment into the UK

In 2025, we had a trade deficit of about £39 billion, this is principally because we import more in goods and services than we export (mainly a deficit in goods and a surplus in services).

We remain an acceptable location for foreign direct investment, however some of the key drivers behind turbocharging Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) include high regulatory burden, trade and tariff risks post-brexit and high levels of tax comparatively to other English language economies.

By easing some regulatory burden on existing Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and having an attractive offer such as tax breaks for companies who relocate to the UK for the first 18 months, we could increase income tax revenue, create jobs and increase the corporation tax receipts in the medium term without raising tax.

Additionally, Andy Burnham should not shy away from having the courage to increase market certainty by re-assessing our relationship with the European Union.

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A plea to our new Prime Minister – abolish me!

It has been a big week for me, personally. On Thursday 16 July, the government announced 26 new members of the House of Lords – and I am one of them: I am to be Lord Leunig. Since it is His Majesty’s Government, the official announcement read “The King has been graciously pleased to signify His intention of conferring Peerages of the United Kingdom for Life upon the undermentioned:

Sixteen new peers will be Labour, five Liberal Democrat (including me), and three Conservative. These twenty four were nominated by their political parties. The remaining two will be “crossbenchers”, that is, not taking the whip from any political party.

Those numbers: sixteen, five, three and two are entirely, as I understand it, the choice of the PM. He could have created no peers at all, or had a completely different ratio. He could have created peers for other parties, and he could have offered Count Binface a peerage. It really is up to him. (For those wondering why the Conservatives got only three new peers, they have more peers than other parties already: to be honest I am surprised that they were given any.) But either way, it is the PM’s choice. There are currently no Reform Lords, and only two Greens.

The House of Lords is indefensible in so many ways. Once appointed, peers have been appointed for life, although a retirement age of 80 is planned. That means I could be a legislator for almost 25 years – in which time my views could change spectacularly, or my principles lose support in the country. In neither case would I be removed. A side effect is that peers are typically rather old – the majority are over 70, and well over a third are over 80.

Nor is the Lords representative. Whether they win or lose general elections, the Conservative party always has more peers than Labour. No other democracy gives one party the biggest share of legislators, no matter how badly that party does in elections. That is offensive to anyone who calls themselves a democrat.

The Lords are unrepresentative in other ways. Fewer than a third of peers are women. Some political parties do better: 45% of Labour and 43% of Liberal Democrat peers are women, similar to their Commons mix (46% and 44% respectively). In contrast only 29% of Conservative peers are women. More than half of peers attended private schools.

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Mathew on Monday: Burnham has made a promising start. Now comes the hard part

Andy Burnham’s first speech as the new Prime Minister, outside No.10 Downing Street, earlier today, struck exactly the right tone. After years of political instability, he spoke of restoring trust, rebuilding Britain, devolving power and creating a new economic and political model. It was hopeful, ambitious and refreshingly optimistic.

Britain has been crying out for a politics that inspires rather than merely manages.
One pledge particularly struck me: his commitment to make ending rough sleeping his first instruction as Prime Minister. It speaks to values I share about dignity and compassion. Yet it also comes with a note of caution. Burnham made a similar commitment as Mayor of Greater Manchester, achieving significant early progress before homelessness later rose again amid wider housing pressures. National government gives him more levers than City Hall ever did, but this promise will ultimately be judged on results, not rhetoric.

His reshaping of the Cabinet (from what we know of it as I write) is equally significant. The departure of prominent figures associated with the Starmer era (Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, Steve Reed, Peter Kyle etc) signals that this is not intended to be continuity with a different face.

If Burnham genuinely wants a fresh start, he needs ministers who share his vision rather than yesterday’s assumptions.

For all of the excitement of today, however, governments are not remembered for inauguration speeches. They are remembered for what they achieve (or, perhaps more often, what they don’t. Burnham will have a honeymoon, but it may well only be a brief break.

I genuinely hope he succeeds. Britain needs stable, compassionate and effective government. The words outside No.10 were encouraging. The challenge now is turning them into lasting change. That is the test by which this premiership will ultimately be judged.

Where is the anger on Local Government reorganisation?

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Orange with Bits

The British political establishment will be pulling off another stunning magic trick. With Sir Keir Starmer’s departure from Downing Street, the Labour Party has crowned its new leader, and Andy Burnham will be going through the black door of 10 Downing Street on a regular basis. The flags will be red, the rhetoric will be unashamedly Labour, and the history books will record it as a victory for the governing party’s soft-left faction.

But if you ignore the partisan badges and look closely at the actual structural blueprint Burnham is bringing from Manchester to Whitehall, a fascinating question emerges: Are we actually about to witness the arrival of the UK’s first Liberal Democrat Prime Minister?

Don’t be fooled by the red tie. Look closely at what Burnham is actually doing, and you see an admission of absolute intellectual bankruptcy from the national Labour Party. Having spent two years in government drifting without a clear ideological anchor, Labour has been forced to commit an act of shameless ideological theft. To save themselves, they have raided the Liberal Democrat policy pantry, stealing the very clothes our party has meticulously tailored for years. Why should voters settle for a pale, focus-grouped imitation when they can have the real thing?

The Stolen Successes: Raiding Our Pantry

Let’s be fair: where Burnham’s platform actually shines, he is simply copying our homework. Take his headline promise to oversee the biggest council and social housebuilding programme since the post-war period. It is a fantastic policy, but it wasn’t invented in Manchester. In the last general election, it was the Liberal Democrats who held the most aggressive, unapologetic housebuilding targets in the country.

The same copycat strategy extends to older voters. Before entering Downing Street, Burnham had been firm on his public commitment to uphold the state pension triple lock despite growing fiscal friction. It is another example of a policy the Liberal Democrats originally created and championed to guarantee community stability. Whenever Labour needs a trusted mechanism to safeguard family incomes and protect vulnerable communities, they have to reach for one of our templates.

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If Andy Burnham isn’t the Messiah… Good

“He’s not the Messiah,” a voice from the Conservative benches heckled during Andy Burnham’s swearing-in.

Quite right. Britain doesn’t need another political saviour. We’ve spent far too long investing our hopes in the next charismatic leader, only to discover that no Prime Minister, however capable, can fix our beleaguered country with a laying on of hands.

If I had 15 minutes with Andy Burnham as he crosses the threshold of Number Ten, I wouldn’t expect him to work miracles to rescue Britain. Instead, I’d ask him to help build a Britain that no longer needs rescuing.

1. Redistribute power

Power has been sucked into Westminster and Whitehall for decades. The UK raises less than 6% of tax revenue locally, against an OECD average of 11%; we are the most fiscally centralised country in the G7, and 62% of local government funding comes from Whitehall grants, more than any comparable economy. Since 2010-11, councils’ core spending power has fallen 18% in real terms per person, a cut of almost £14 billion, hitting deprived areas hardest. Too much hinges on who occupies Number 10, because too little power exists anywhere else.

Democratic renewal should be the foundation of any reforming government: proportional representation (49% public support against 26% for first-past-the-post, spanning party lines), cleaner political funding, and devolution that reaches neighbourhoods and communities, not just city halls. Citizens’ assemblies, participatory budgeting and community ownership turn politics from something done to people into something done with them. Liberal Democrats have always understood that freedom is the practical power to shape your own life, not merely freedom from interference.

2. Build a resilient Britain

Our politics has been optimised for growth, as though GDP were the purpose of society rather than simply one measure of its success. Growth matters, but it isn’t enough: an economy can grow while communities weaken, services deteriorate and nature declines. Given the challenges ahead, I would propose a different mission: optimise for resilience.

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Vince Cable writes: The rebirth of council housing

One of the few clearly articulated commitments which Andy Burnham has made is “the biggest council house building programme since the post-war period”. No sooner had he made the pledge than critics were lining up to pan it. The Economist, far from being Labour’s fiercest critic, described it as “the wrong fix” and the council house system as “wasteful, unfair and a barrier to growth”. Others have dismissed it as impractical, even if desirable, and a throwback to a bygone age.

It is not clear if the Burnham pledge is to use councils – either mayoral combined bodies or single district councils – as developers to boost housing supply of a variety of tenures; or specifically to build and own more houses for – below market -social rent. In the three decades after 1950 local authorities did both, at scale. The high point was 1968 with over 190,000 houses were built, and let, by UK councils and the 1970’s average was 130,000. I was a Glasgow city councillor in the heyday of council house building to replace slum dwellings in the early 1970’s and 5,000 a year was achieved in Glasgow alone (albeit that some were of poor quality and later demolished – like the Red Road development). With the advent of the Thatcher government, council house building largely stopped, 2 million council homes were sold at a discount under the Right to Buy policy and most new ‘social housing’ was provided by non-profit housing associations. In 2025, English councils delivered a mere 1,705 new council houses and started a negligible 300.

Nonetheless, 16% of the total housing stock still consists of social housing.

Much of the criticism of Burnham’s vision is a criticism of social housing. Tenants, who enjoy (implicitly) subsidised rents, are not necessarily in financial need: one third are not judged to need welfare benefits with a small number -usually well publicised in the popular press – enjoy relatively high incomes. There can be indefinite tenure and, in some instances, inheritance. Most council tenants are in a more favourable position than those who rent privately, often with insecure short-term tenancies, and – if they can find a landlord willing to house benefit recipients- rely on far-from-generous housing benefit ( capped by local Housing Allowance). And there are growing numbers of homeless in temporary accommodation or shipped out to councils with housing surpluses, far from work and family support networks. Such invidious comparisons do not however mean that we should have less social housing. Rather, more. Without more social housing, families on low and unstable incomes are forced out of more prosperous areas, where there is work; there is a rise in homelessness; and villages die for lack of trade and tradesmen. At the same time, rents can rise, gradually, to reduce the subsidy element (with housing benefit for those in need) and the option of sale is available for those who are able to progress to ownership.

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